Friday Estimates by Money’s Uncle Klady
(Editor’s Note: Chart Edited at 2:30p MCdt to reflect typo on Bellflower gross. $9300, not $93,000)
Rise of the Planet of the Apes is one of those weird box office situations. It’s a well-liked movie. But opening weekend is opening weekend. This is an established multi-generational franchise. But opening day is not as strong as Green Lantern, X-Men: First Class or Captain America (or GI Joe, for that matter). So much as I respect Oren Aviv’s marketing skill, I can’t count this as a big win for Fox marketing. It’s more like they went fairly traditional and it almost bit them on the ass. The movie is probably going to save them from disappointment with strong word of mouth, which will probably move the numbers in the next 3 weeks.
These are interesting times in movie marketing, especially in the loaded-to-the-gills summer. Fox had no way of knowing for sure what a stiff Cowboys & Aliens would be or that Universal would have such a hard time making noise with Daniel Craig and Harrison Ford. (Ford was at his most effective on Letterman, where two guys in their 60s smirked ironically through a jazz interview. Wrong audience.) But you have to know when you have a real hit movie on your hands. And when there has been as much resistance to it out there as there has been, you need to get the thing rolling in a positive way earlier… not embargoing to the last second. (Even with the embargo getting smashed 36 hours early, it was always week-of-release.)
I know… it was Potter to Cap to C&A and where were they going to get traction? Well, welcome to 2011, guys. Potter had its own orbit, but after that, Apes would have been the clearly dominant buzz picture. Unless you’re already tracking through the roof, ya gotta release the kraken.
The issue of just how good your multiple can be on a summer movie has changed for the worst over time as the studios have frontloaded more and more aggressively. The anomaly of the summer is clearly Bridesmaids, which is currently at 6.3x opening. Next are Horrible Bosses and Zookeeper at 3.6x open. Super 8 was leggy, by this summer’s standard, at 3.53x opening. And Mr Popper’s Penguins has done 3.52x opening off of a weak start.
Transformers 3 is the most leggy film with an opening over $36m, doing 3.49x open. Staying on that track, Panda 2 has done 3.4x opening, Hang2/2.95x, and Cars 2/2.78x.
Now we get to the Superhero group. Thor/2.75x opening. X-M:FC, 2.63x opening, Lantern 2.15x, and Cap, still early in its journey, is currently at 2.06x. All opening at $53m – $65m. Range 2.2x opening – 2.8x opening.
That’s pretty much the group I would stick Apes into. If it does exceptionally well for a rebooting franchise, 3x opening. Especially in August, where there isn’t as much summer left to play through. So $135m – $170m domestic for Apes? No 3D bump? Pretty damned good. (Hangover 2 is the only film in the summer’s current Top 6 that is not in 3D.) But based on how people are responding to the film, you would imagine the possibility of it being in the mid-2s with the bigger boys. Of course, it could be much bigger internationally… and the fact that so much of it plays like a silent film with music and sfx doesn’t hurt one bit.
And look… Fox is claiming that the film cost under $100m. Even if it cost $125m, as with Tr3, we’re seeing an exponential growth in the amount of character CG that these movies are using at these prices. I think that’s one of the big stories of the summer. Not only is the up-close-and-personal CG quality of something like Apes better than we might have expected 3 or 4 years ago, but one would have to guess that doing the same movie 3 or 5 years ago would have cost double. And as I said of Trannies 3, it really felt like Bay was able to use the bots as fully realized characters for the first time in this one… not like he was picking moments to highlight the Transformer effect.
More importantly – I guess – is that if the international is as strong as I expect it will be, it will be a very profitable film. And when you make this film for $200m… not so profitable… and a lot more anxiety producing for a studio.
Also opening today, the sixth R-rated comedy of the summer, The Change-Up.
I guess it’s time for a Crazy Nikki rant…. skip the next graf if it’s going to bore you…
God, I wish people who knew nothing about box office would stop trying to appear to know something about box office by being FIRST! I’m used to the “get ‘er wrong” guesses at the weekend based on East Coast matinees and the overwrites and rationalizations, this weekend going from “might beat Cowboys & Aliens” to the reality that Apes will open 50% better than C&A. But letting Universal throw Ryan Reynolds under the bus by claiming he’s supposed to be a $20m opener… just shitty. It’s lovely to say it, buy has he EVER done it? Answer: no. He’s been in four $20m+ openers in his career. Green Lantern, Wolverine, and The Amityville Horror were undeniably driven by franchise, not actors. The only star vehicle to open over 20 was The Proposal… which was driven almost exclusively by Sandra Bullock’s light. Reynolds was terrific in it, but not his opening. So if Universal exec X thought Reynolds was a 20m opener, that person should be fired for sheer ignorance. Hoping that this would step him up, sure. But this was a high concept movie with two mid-range (read: liked, but no opening assurances) stars and they sold the wrong concept for most of the lead up to this weekend. The ad campaign seemed to shift in the last few days and we saw Leslie Mann on the toilet for the first time. Had they rolled out the “See why Roger Ebert hates it!” campaign earlier, I think we’d be looking at a better opening… and it still wouldn’t be on Reynolds. (I also love that the best opening of his career, Green Lantern, is his career death. Petty ass covering of her studio bosses by Ms. Information.)
Okay… so I was saying…
Also worth noting, as #6, you can see audience fatigue growing. Bridesmaids opened surprisingly well and then Hangover II did expected monster biz. Then $32m for Bad Teacher, $28m for Horrible Bosses, and $19m for Friends With Benefits. Now, Change-Up will open the worst of the 6.
Obviously, each film has its marketing issues, pro or con, and its word of mouth. Horrible Bosses opened $3.3m less strong than Teacher, but will outgross it by a good margin domestically. But it is a trend line. And Sony has to be praying that the hip 30 Minutes or Less will break the trend next weekend… because the idea is for Ruben Fleisher to go up from his $25m Zombieland opening, not down. However, that Oct 2, 2009 Zombie launch had the benefit of being the only film within genre shooting range. Jennifer’s Body, which was similar in tone, was a bomb and had come and gone 2 weeks earlier. So not only was it well marketed, a clear pitch, and benefiting from a strong cast profile, it owned tweeners for weeks before and after. (Another hopeful, Whip It, got run over by the Emma Stone energy in Z-Land, which drew surprisingly strong grrrrl interest.)
What else?
The Smurfs have put Cowboys & Aliens in their rear view domestically. The international battle will be interesting too, though I would have to put the long money on the Belgians. Decent hold for Crazy Stupid Love (which like Monique, I will no longer be trying to figure out the typography for). Word of mouth I have been hearing has been extreme, both positive and negative. Odd. And Horrible Bosses passed $100m on Thursday.
Bellflower is the story of the indie box office weekend. Whatever they did to generate that kind of buzz, other indies should be emulating… even if, as I fear, Klady’s typing got a “0” too ambitious.
And The Whistleblower deserves more attention. It’s a tough subject, but it’s a very strong movie with a truly great performance by Rachel Weisz and others (more the Euro-actors you don’t know than the solid, but not too special cameos by great actors.)
That’s a great number for Apes. All the heistancy around the scheduling worked out in Fox’s favor.
Are people going to jump off the Reynolds/Wilde bandwagon now? Neither have had a good summer.
Can someone explain to me why Green Lantern has posted such low numbers internationally? Has it not released in most territories yet, or is it really underperforming that badly? Not sure why it is stacking up so poorly to the Marvel pictures abroad. I haven’t seen it, but based on the promo I certainly expected it to do decently overseas.
And is that Bellflower number real? That’s headed to a 100,000+ screen average (!?!) How can that possibly be true?
If that’s right, it’s stuff like this (and the unprecedented numbers for Avatar) is what makes me think that virtually no one has any idea what the movie going public ACTUALLY wants as opposed to what they pay for out of a lack of alternative.
I guess people are either gonna jump off the reynolds/ wilde hype now. I am thinking that reynolds,needs to get sandra bullock, betty white and the gang back together for the proposal 2, were they meet sandra’s character’s parents. He needs the hit.
also how much credit is jennifer aniston getting for horrible bosses, betwenn this and the crappy just go with it, maybe she has gotten back to her niche as the supporting but heavily promoted actress in comedies she had from 03-04 with bruce almighty and along came polly
Based on where Bellflower is positioned in the chart, I assumed it was actually 9,300.
Yeah, BELLFLOWER is $9,300 for sure… even if you sold out every show at the Nuart, you’d only be around $25k… and it most certainly didn’t sell out every show.
I definitely blanched at it, but after Precious dropped to such an epic number on a relatively low budget I didn’t think it was completely inconceivable.
DJK- looks like you were right. The sorting thing should have told me it’s 9,300. Still a great number for friday but more in line with what I was expecting.
Reynolds is definitely looking suspect, but I’d give Wilde a bit of a break. It’s not like she actually STARRED in those movies; that would be like blaming Greta Gerwig for the failure of ARTHUR.
Maybe while correcting the BELLFLOWER per-screen, Dave could go ahead and correct the title of “Deadly Hollows” (sic) already.
Or the word “Estimates” up top.
WG: Just be glad Dave didn’t go with “Esti-Primates” or something. 🙂
Also, I suppose “Money’s Uncle” could be deliberate, but more likely he meant “Monkey’s.”
I fear that Len added a 0 on Bellflower as well. Waiting for him to return an e-mail.
Dave: “because the idea is for Ruben Fleisher to go up from his $25m Zombieland opening, not down.”
Zombieland was a bit of a lightning in a bottle moment, got some good buzz under its sails, and had a unique concept that was a definite plus at the box office. 30 minutes looks funny as hell, and while knowing that studios try to always top themselves, I don’t think that just because it’s the same director that comparing these movies is an apples to apples thing.
I agree that they must be rethinking their strategy of opening this in the position of the 7th R rated comedy in about 13 weeks. That’s more of this genre than there way comic book movies. Maybe they should have kept the Zombieland weekend and tied the marketing to ‘from the director of…”
I don’t think it’s apples to apples either, bulldog. But I’m not running the studio. They were convinced that FWB would be mid-20s… which seemed quite unlikely. So they ended up disappointed by a reasonably good opening.
And this is not just a Sony phenomenon by any means.
They didn’t move from Oct to Aug with Fleisher because they thought the film would open to less.
Looking at some of the August numbers Dave, if I speak to your argument for a moment, maybe Sony thinks they have a Pineapple Express on their hands as that had opening weekend of $23m, and also featured Danny McBride. PE only had Step Brothers, also released by Sony, to deal with in 08.
Superbad was the highmark at $33M for an r rated comedy that wasn’t an American Pie sequel, released in August and basically had the field to itself as Knocked Up was a June release.
I’ll be very sorry if it doesn’t make some bank due to a shitty release date. It looks funny as hell.
Just watched the red-band trailer of “The Sitter” (think “‘Pineapple Express’ Meets ‘Adventures in Babysitting'”), and laughed my ass off. It definitely looks like a DGG comeback after the disappointing “Your Highness.”
Question:
Will the current popularity (excepting, uh, “The Change-Up”) of raunchy-as-hell “R” rated comedies have completely abated by Xmas, dooming “The Sitter” to also-ran status? Or could it single-handedly reignite the genre spark? The fact that there’s apparently no other hard “R” comedies set for year-end release should definitely work in its favor, no?
P.S.= It was a little surreal seeing a positively svelte-looking Jonah Hill in the intro segment since he’s still his old butterball self in the actual trailer.
Yeah Movieman, a couple of days ago I showed my wife an image of the newly svelte Jonah and she did not know who he was. Man what a transformation.
Adventures in Babysitting is a favorite of mine and I got that vibe as well from the trailer, so I was wondering whether this was a remake of sorts. Along with 21 Jumpstreet, maybe Jonah is going through some sort of a remake phase. Up next, Animal House, but wait, now he’s too skinny. Are fat comedians less funny when they lose the weight?
And as for the December release, looks like no r rated comedy has opened to over $25m so picking this release date is a bit questionable.
Could be, bulldog. Just saying, mid-20s will be fine with them. Mid-teens – which is about where the movie really should be expected to open and would not be a bad thing if it does – will not.
The ad campaign seemed to shift in the last few days and we saw Leslie Mann on the toilet for the first time.
Really? Pretty much every single ad I’ve seen for this since they started airing has used that “I have to quit it on the Thai food” gag. It was overused to the point of annoyance. Emphasizing it wasn’t some sort of late game adjustment.
I’m not sure I understand something in your rant, David: “The ad campaign seemed to shift in the last few days and we saw Leslie Mann on the toilet for the first time.” Are you referring just to TV ads here? Because, trust me: I’ve seen the toilet gag — and the baby poop gag — in the trailer for the past several weeks. And frankly, neither gag made me want to see the movie. Quite the opposite, in fact.
never mind.
In my opposite-Lex universe, I only post unique thoughts on blogs rather than repeating myself all the time like with the above repetitive trailer rant.
Don’t bow to bad movies.
Fuck off. It’s not even funny. God, at least make it funny.
God, you try to do a little fucking COMEDY ROUTINE on the internet, when it comes to movies you run afoul of the PERMANENTLY HUMOURLESS and needlessly HOSTILE.
Just fucking forget it. Last two weeks, since that Guardian thing and some attention on another blog, I got idiots like this unfunny asshole all trying to run me off the movie blogs. Lighten the FUCK up. You’re really doing IMPORTANT WORK, following around and STALKING some dork on NICHE MOVIE BLOGS.
LexG: OK, am I already in the early stages of Alzheimer’s, or did you have a post up here just a few minutes ago that’s now gone?
It’s gone because I had actual thoughts about ROTPOTA but it’s not worth it if I’m gonna get heckled by some WITLESS DOUCHE trying to ride my coattails (such as they are, hahaha), so fuck it, FORGET IT, I’m not posting here anymore.
EVER.
I RETIRE. Fucking SICK OF THIS. Just trying to do some LITTLE RIFFS and get some DOUCHE giving me static.
BYE. Have fun with Madam Nero Whatever.
LexG: There was something up there about Change-Up, too, wasn’t there?
Any reason why Rise Of’s #’s were not compared the POTA’s from ’01? I mean, it’s not that long ago, and people kind of assume this new one is a long delayed sequel. The last one did $68 mill in 2001 dollars, this one will do quite a bit less than that. Wahlberg 2001 couldn’t have been that much more of a draw than Franco 2011, and I assume the budget from this one was more than the Wahlberg/Burton one, no? And that one ended up being considered kind of a box office disappointment.
Lex’s is threatening to quit again? Is it Tuesday already…?
I’ve exchanged less than two words with you Lex, and I doubt I’ve ever commented on any of your posts. What’s with the hostility?
I also find it hard to believe anyone thinks Nero and I are the same person. He seems quite “intense”.
This movie is laughable. I dug the apes being smart but why were the humans so dumb. Seemed like a few assault rifles could have taken care of this pretty easily. Ape rampage in SF and one helicopter gets involved?
Lex won’t admit it, but he feeds off the hate. If everyone was perfectly respectful and pleasant to him, he’d be bored out of his mind.
Don’t know what to tell you, alynch. Seen a lot of ads for the film and didn’t see the toilet once until this week. Lots of baby mischief and awkward unsociability.
Lex come on, if you can’t get past one guy/girl trying to do a comedy bit off of your posting style, then you’re never going to get anywhere at this. There wouldn’t even be a Hot Blog to post to if David said “FUCK this shit, I’m taking my ball home!!!” every time somebody tweaked him for thinking “The Phantom of the Opera” had Oscar hopes. Put the white flag away, man.
The 2001 Planet of the Apes cost $100 million in 2001 dollars, while Rise of the Planet of the Apes cost $90 million (allegedly) in 2011 dollars. A cheaper film no matter how you slice it, even when factoring in what likely is a lot more spent on saturation marketing in this day and age. I didn’t not expect RotPotA to get near the $69m that the Burton version did, but then I was jaw-dropped shocked when the first revamp did as much ten years ago.* Maybe it’s just as simple as Tim Burton being HUGE when he’s helm-ling a purely commercial, uber-mainstream property (could anyone else have gotten an Alice in Wonderland revamp to $116m over opening weekend?). Maybe it’s the blowback from the mediocrity of said Burton remake that led people to be cautious this time around. There was, I imagine, a certain curiosity factor over what was arguably the first modern reboot**, and maybe it’s just a case of it being ten years later in terms of fans of the original, with not enough new-found fans over the last ten years to compensate (not my best-written sentence, but in a hurry). All of which is longhand for saying that it IS a noticeably smaller opening this time around, but I don’t think anyone was honestly expecting a repeat of last decade’s ‘holy crap!’ debut. Frankly, I think a $50m debut shows that the franchise really does have a strong niche fanbase after all of these years. As long as they keep the budget around $100m, there’s no reason Fox can’t have a new franchise revival. Anyway, sorry for the unfocused ramblings, am actually off to see Rise of the Planet of the Apes right now.
For those who care –
* – http://scottalanmendelson.blogspot.com/2011/05/ten-years-ago-how-2001-was-film-game.html
** – http://scottalanmendelson.blogspot.com/2011/08/how-2001-was-film-game-changer-iii-tim.html
A bit dramatic, Lexifer.
You DID bring up the Guardian piece. And if satire on you is the response – I agree… it’s not been funny since the first couple of posts – you should be pleased, not pissed.
Martin, you have a good point. My pre-season analysis of what I thought the movie could do worldwide did take Bueton’s Apes into account. But not very relevant on opening day. What is an issue, however, is expectations. There were a ton for that film and very small ones for this one. And so, the media overhypes a good, not sensational opening. And movies like Wolverine, which the media hated, get no credit for the big box office haul, while First Class doesn’t get beaten down for being so far behind.
#facscanbeinconvenient
PS… That figure on Burton’s Apes is WAAAAAAY low.
That budget went completely out of control. Some estimates are almost double what Scott offered.
Smurfs wasn’t that bad. By no means good, and strictly a kids movie, but I actually snickered a couple times at what Hank Azaria was going for as Gargamel. Liked him better here than in Night of the Museum 2.
Fair enough, I went off what I was able to find on the mainstream sources. All the more ‘impressive’ that Fox brought this one in at under $100m ten years later, I suppose.
I guess I’m just not sure why I should believe that the budget #’s for Burton’s were a lie, and the #’s for this one are legit. Not saying I think Burton’s cost $100 mill (I remember thinking like $150 at the time), but my guess is that this new one, with all the effects, etc. probably cost at least $120-130. With marketing costs higher nowadays, I’d bet the red #’s are not really that different. The difference is that, this time around, the above the line is much less well known and probably has a lot less points.
Krillian, I also heard some good things from families on Smurfs. Like Chipmunks, you couldn’t pay me to see it, and I’m kind of disappointed with mankind that this sort of garbage makes money, but it is what it is.
BTW, haven’t been here in awhile, but I have an original The Hot Button black cap from 01 or whenever. I wonder if its value has improved with time.
So The Other Blog is quoting “Phenomenal opening validating a sensational marketing effort led by Oren Aviv and Tony Sella”.
This kind of thing annoys me – just what about the marketing was sensational? You bought some outdoors and tv spots, a few magazine features, and you had a website. Is that it? What was so different this time around from Gulliver’s Travels, and are you going to take these learnings to your next film?
Seriously, unless you can SHOW why it was “sensational” then you’re just making shit up. Otherwise you’re just following an apple pie recipe with whatever ingredients are handed to you, and patting yourself on the back when you occasionally get handed apples.
i found it funny deadline was posting 38 Million Opening Weekend until the Friday numbers, then it was 50 million.
the original projections were based on ‘weak midnight numbers’. Midnight numbers are no basis for box office. I think at some point we have to realize that not everyone is going to turn out at Midnight for every major release.
Cowboys and Aliens is tanking, I wonder if the producers of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo are getting nervous?
David: I don’t mean this as a snarky question, but do you get to see many movies in theaters these days? Not special previews, mind you, but just regular showings at regular movie houses? Reason I ask: I can remember that, for the first couple years after my son arrived, his mom and I rarely were able to go out to movies together — and I limited most of my moviegoing to screenings and junkets (i.e., movies I had to see). I’m thinking something like that might explain why you hadn’t seen the Change-Up trailer a dozen or so times before this past week.
Actually, this isn’t the first time I’m be amused to read someone on this blog (and others) state that they have seen virtually no advertising (or, in your case, no examples of a certain ad) for some movie for which I’ve seen countless TV ads. And I’ve gotten the impression that the reverse is true: LexG and others have remarked about being sick and tired of seeing ads for some movie for which I’ve seen virtually no advertising. It’s funny — all of us who come here presumably are interested enough in movies to have our radar working all the time, to be aware of what’s being hyped (and what’s not). But I guess it also depends on what TV shows you watch, what newspapers and magazines you read, which theaters you attend, etc., if you’re going to be cognizant of a movie that might be pitched toward a specific demographic. It’s like, I don’t think I ever saw a single TV spot for Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer. And, mind you, I actually saw the movie itself.
No way on Earth that much CGI was brought in on a $90M budget, unless some off-top line balance sheet deal happened.. If I had to hazard a guess, only plausible scenario is that they made some agreement with WETA giving them back end and possibly production credits in exchange for doing the work at cost. Might explain why there was that early trailer that said “From Weta Digital,” as if they were a bigger selling point to an uninitiated audience than any of the actors or other producers.
“And movies like Wolverine, which the media hated, get no credit for the big box office haul, while First Class doesn’t get beaten down for being so far behind.”
FIRST CLASS: Reported Budget 140 million, WW box office 348 million
WOLVERINE: Reported Budget 150 million, WW box office 373 million
I dont know if there are many more (if any) territories for FC to open in but even if this is its final cume, by what standards is it “so far behind”?
I don’t know, it feels to me that this had much less hype than the Planet of the Apes campaign for 2001 – they had teasers for that thing a year in advance and shit was unavoidable for months leading up to the opening. Tim Burton played a big part in the mega-opening, as well. And from I remember reading, they had to re-shoot several scenes for the movie including replacing the score at least once – the movie was considered a trouble shoot, which ‘Rise was not. It would not surprise me if the production and marketing costs were significantly higher for that one than this, though maybe not adjusted for inflation.
They’re looking at a $54 million opening, which is damn impressive no matter how you slice it – the marketing folks at Fox did their job with this one. I don’t care if it was a pre-sold property with built-in audience – didn’t exactly work for ‘First Class, did it?? And it has been ten years since the last one.
Only five films released in August have broken $50 million opening, doesn’t even happen every year….any chance of this maybe cracking $200 million domestic? There’s no other big movie competition for the rest of the month and Cowboys and Captain are both fading pretty fast…..wow, Fox picked the right slot for this one! After their release schedule screw-ups for Wall Street an Unstoppable last year, they got one right for once.
It’s also important to remember that trailers are almost always shown with like-minded movies. So it’s entirely understandable that, say, Lex would never see a trailer for THE SMURFS, because he doesn’t go to cartoons or most other kiddie-oriented films, while someone who went almost exclusively to Laemmle theatres would never see one for THE CHANGE-UP.
Before I forget – yes, Green Lantern is only just opening in a couple of territories, including Australia.
Beats me why a tentpole’s release is so delayed – especially if there’s no subtitling work involved.
JKill… didn’t really mean ” that far behind” in that context.
I assume you get my point though.
DP,if you’re point is that WOLVERINE because of not being well liked by the geek press was seen as a financial failure while FIRST CLASS is seen as a big hit because it’s well liked, despite nearly the same numbers, I get it and agree. For some reason I was reading that last part as your opinion, and not what you think a consistent media narrative would look like. Thanks.