Friday Estimates by AA (Apes Again) Klady
Apes hold is fine. The film is running marginally ahead of X-Men: First Class and 10% & change behind Thor and Captain America. No indication yet that adults are catching on to the perceived quality of the film. So that $150m – $160m domestic window seems to be the fit to expect. As with the others, the story of the bottom line will be written overseas.
The Help, estimated just $400k behind Apes, could rise up and take the weekend. Adult audiences could make up that difference on Sunday alone. So we’ll see. Aside from the ever silly #1/#2 race, the film is really the only drama from a major studio this summer, and even as a “feel good,” only Crazy, Stupid, Love and Midnight in Paris are remotely in the same adult-first territory. The real question on the movie is whether we’re looking at $75 million or $125 million domestic. And I don’t think we’ll really know until the mid-week numbers or maybe next weekend’s numbers.
Five-al Destination is going retro, recreating opening day from #3 instead of the higher grossing #4. Interestingly, some people seem to think this is the best of the series. Regardless, it’s a pretty specific audience and should settle into the traditional $50m – $60m range of the series.
30 Minutes or Less has got to be a little bit of a heartbreaker for Sony. I know it is for a lot of film lovers. We all became Ruben Fleisher fans after Zombieland, which was both fun and showed great promise that a new action/comedy voice had been launched. But sometimes, it’s all a little “inside the beltway” and we all forget that it’s the guy’s second major feature, that Jesse Eisenberg is not an opener at this point, the Aziz Ansari is everywhere but isn’t selling tickets, and that as beloved as he is, Danny McBride on your poster seems to lead to box office expectations being dashed. I enjoy the guy and he’s good in this film, but I think he scares a significant portion of the audience away from his films.
The opening, for a lot of not shocking reasons, is about half of Zombieland‘s. The price tag on the film likely keeps it from being a money loser… it could even turn a decent profit. Sophomore slump films are not unusual, but they sting, because everyone is rooting for the win, not just as business, but with real hope. Of course, WB has its hopes pinned on Fleisher to break into a new genre, the crime drama, with Gangster Squad. Fingers tightly crossed.
Only four concert films have ever opened to over $4 million. Glee 3D will be the fifth. But it won’t come close to the numbers of Cyrus/Bieber/Jackson/Jonas. Fox won’t lose money on the effort. And they could still bring in some strong dollars overseas, where TV show mania can make for some astounding theatrical grosses. I have no idea what Glee’s penetration is overseas, so I can’t really venture a real guess… and this concert may end up playing some countries next year or the year after. In the meanwhile, Fox will generate revenue by selling DVDs, probably more as an addendum to the series than as a regular concert video.
Crazy Stupid Love will pass Friends With Benefits today to become the #5 summer comedy. And that’s where it will likely end up when all the domestic numbers are counted up. (It’s still about $45m behind #4.)
The soft opening of The Change-Up didn’t keep it from a steep Friday-to-Friday drop. Thing is, assuming it gets to $28 million, it will still be Jason Bateman’s biggest grossing comedy as a lead and right there with every Ryan Reynolds comedy not starring Sandra Bullock.
Nice, if not overwhelming launch for Senna. Good movie. Go see it… if you are near one of its 2 screens.
I just can’t believe we’ll be seeing “Battleship”, “Hong Kong Phooey”, and Austin Powers 4 on that list.
Maybe an ape apocalypse wouldn’t be such a bad thing after all.
This seems like one of the more interesting B.O. weekends. Lots of little stories.
-Rise of the Planet of the Apes could re-peat #1 at the B.O. Does it make it to 150 million?
-The Help opens up around 20 million with a 30 million 5 day.
-Final Destination 5 opens respectably though starting to show it’s age
-30 Minutes or Less shows the continued comedy atrophy, though not knowing the budget it might not be a huge loss.
-Glee 3D doesn’t make a lot but how much did it cost? Next to nothing i imagine and the DVD sales will probably be ginormous.
Maybe C&A might have done better if Favreau had actually come up with a name for the movie. I wonder how many people felt embarrassed when they heard themselves saying “Two for Cowboys and Aliens, please.”
Finally caught up with CAPTAIN AMERICA and loved it. Is it true that it’s doing much better internationally than expected, at least so far?
Did Smurfs cost a ton? Because it’s DM to Darrow pretty impressive. Who would have thought Smurfs would destroy C&A?
Glee 3D? I saw no promotion on this. Did it get dumped?
That’s supposed to be “it’s DM to date”…
The Help will hopefully have a slight uptick today through WOM but that 8 for apes seems a bit too high. It should be close but between the monkeys and The Help, The Help just fits that late Summer leggy movie more than the monkey movie. Whateverthecase, the Glee movie could have really used some MORE FREAKING ADVERTISING!
Jason, no, they didn’t dump GLEE 3D. Fox thought they didn’t have to promote it through traditional circles. It’s not like it cost a ton, but it should be doing better.
“Smurfs” cost a lot more than it should have supposedly, but it will still show a tidy profit…”The Help” having a 30 million 5-day is the shocker of the summer to me….
Kudos to the one or two people here that went out on a limb early and predicted Apes to do well. What I remember most about the original movie is the twist ending. So the Apes franchise is as surprising to me as THE SIXTH SENSE spawning some beloved and lucrative franchise. Come to think of it, the adventures of a ghost psychologist could be interesting.
In regards to the Smurfs: I’m also surprised that a Robotech movie is seemingly stuck in development hell. It combines Hollywood’s determination to strip mine every ’80s kid cartoon, with giant transforming fighting robots. How can they resist making this movie?
“Five-al Destination is going retro, recreating opening day from #4 instead of the higher grossing #5.”
Do you mean 3/4 here, instead of 4/5? This is 5th movie.
Yes, JoJo… fixing… thx
“Assuming it gets to $28 million, it will still be Jason Bateman’s biggest grossing comedy as a lead…”
Horrible Bosses? Or is there some subtlety to this statement I’m not picking up on? It had a lot of names, but Bateman’s was first. He’s not exactly a solo lead on The Change-Up either
Marketing-wise almost NONE of the 30 Min Or Less publicity explains why it has that title.
I’m thinking if they played up the angle of a pizza guy thrust into something huge at random, that’s a better hook. In most every clip I’ve seen, though, there’s no sense of who Jesse’s character is and what the larger story is around him.
Haven’t seen it. Want to. Hear it’s terrible. But I guess I’m in the minority sold on anything McBride.
“Maybe C&A might have done better if Favreau had actually come up with a name for the movie. I wonder how many people felt embarrassed when they heard themselves saying ‘Two for Cowboys and Aliens, please.'”
The title was perfectly fine and hardly an embarrassment to speak out loud. It’s on-the-nose in a way that’s actually intriguing (as opposed to something like “Tower Heist”).
To me, Cowboys and Aliens is about as compelling a title as I’ve heard that’d make me want to see a film while still completely blind about everything else. Kick-Ass was that way. The Day the Earth Stood Still would probably be another, (based on just hearing the title way prior to the remake). We’re talking just a collection of words to form a title that would arouse my interest. Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark would do it for me if I liked horror at all. When I was a kid hearing some titles really made me wish I was old enough to see them even though I knew absolutely nothing about the content like Looking for Mr Goodbar and Taking of the Pelham 1-2-3.
Now it’s difficult to have such visceral reactions because the framework behind things is purposefully tied in, which is fine. The Dark Knight Rises is a great title but I’m there opening w/e no matter if they named it “Overrated P.O.S.” There was that short parody “Jane Austen’s Fight Club” that could immediately grab your attention while simultaneously make you say “Why didn’t I think of that?!” That’s what I felt about Cowboys and Aliens. My main concern was would they do anything beyond the title or just mail it in. The first trailer for it I saw made seem totally different than anything I would’ve imagined. Then because I was busy, I couldn’t end up going opening w/e but then started hearing how disappointing it was so I still haven’t seen it. The title though is still compelling enough to where I might still see it in the theaters.
Fair argument Rhodes, though as I recall, every ad for Horrible Bosses had the celebrity bosses – the ones who sold the movie – on the top. So though Bateman was, in concept, the lead, I’d say he was #4 in the marketing push.
And don’t get me wrong… fan of both Bateman & Reynolds. But neither has opened anything in a way that would suggest you could hang a movie on their necks.
Remember, Dodgeball came before Wedding Crashers for Vince Vaughn.
Triple Option, if you have any kind of affinity for classic Westerns you should try & catch “Cowboys & Aliens” on as big a screen as possible. While I can understand some of the negative word of mouth from people I think it’s worth seeing for the first 1/2 or so. I think what disappointed me the most was they never cash in on the story & character set up. The film’s climax is so flat & predictable that it crushes everything that came before. It’s almost like the filmmakers lost interest. Anyway, a lot if it (those great Western vistas) at least looks great up on the big screen.
30 Mins or Less was a lot of fun. It’s a minor work to be sure, but it’s very entertaining. Aziz had me laughing out loud on numerous occasions. MCBride is fucking priceless.
“Finally caught up with CAPTAIN AMERICA and loved it. Is it true that it’s doing much better internationally than expected, at least so far?”
It’s closing in on 300 million, but it hasn’t opened up in all the major markets yet. I notice it’s not playing in Germany where i would expect it to clean up…
what’s that?
oh. nevermind.
Not getting the hate for 30 Mins or Less. I thought it was fun and really funny, and both comedy duos were awesome (McBride/Swardson and Eisenberg/Ansari).
I do get the weak BO, though. Whenever I mention the title to people, they look at me like “whu?” and I have to explain what the movie is about, and then they’re all like “oh yeeeeeaaa.”
Was Back to the Future III the first to add modern elements to the western (can’t be…)? I hope the success of True Grit isn’t completely forgotten with the C&A and Lone Ranger misfires, though I’m sure the Coens appeared to benefit the bottom line more than the genre. The resuscitation of The Dark Tower series certainly seems unlikely at this point. I’d personally like to see more westerns in the vein of The Missing or Open Range but I have no idea if that film’s $58mil take was profitable.
OPEN RANGE was considered very successful, especially given that Disney dumped it in August.
The “modern” western has always been with us. Many B’s in particular were set in the present, but the characters behaved in the traditional western manner, and somehow it worked. One favorite example is the 1931 GUN SMOKE, in which gangsters try to take over a small western town. The local cowboys show them the error of their ways.