Friday Estimates by Dr Klady, I Presume
So both Homes & Alvin are opening softer than some expected. And here’s the part that isn’t being written about… both Sherlock and The Chipmunks pushed their openings a week earlier than their last incarnations. So what does that mean?
Well… you certainly can have a mega-opening on this December weekend. The biggest Dec opening ever, I Am Legend, opened by WB, opened on “this” weekend. it is one of six movies in history to open over $30m on the second weekend of December, including Chipmunks 1 and King Kong.
If Holmes opens to $40m, it will be the 4th biggest opening on the second weekend of Dec ever. Is that a headline grabbing problem? Shouldn’t be. It’s a third less than the opening of the first film, but the extra holiday play week should have the sequel passing the original’s total as of New Year’s probably before… unless they have a word of mouth problem. That’s the strategy play here. Would they have loved a $60m opening? Obviously. Would they have gotten it against Ghost Protocol? No chance.
As for Alvin, Theodore, and the other one, I look at the marketing, which may well have been affected by the content of the movie. The genius hook of Chipmunks 2 was the Beyonce song coming out of the mouths of girl chipmunks, shaking their furry money makers. What’s new about Chipmunks 3? I have no idea. Seems like more of the exact same thing. I wasn’t the audience for either of the first two, but this one barely seems to have registered. And I’m not sure that it had the tools to do so. Fox really rang the bell the first two times and I don’t know that there was a next innovation to engage to make this one seem like an event. Still, $20m will be a disappointment, though $100m-plus at the domestic box office by the end of the holiday will make it financially positive… just not a cash cow like the first two were.
I’m pretty sure that the IMAX-only Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol launch is a first. And it looks like it will be a record breaker, after The Dark Knight‘s $8 million IMAX haul on its opening wide-release weekend. The per-screen is almost 11,000 per screen on 425 screens for Friday only. There isn’t a direct comparison out there, but it relates to films like Twilight and Potter (both of which were on a lot more screens), as well as the Miley Cyrus concert. 30k per screen for a weekend on 425 screens (which also have a limited seat count and no expanding theater count within multiplexes) is about as good as you can do.
Some will debate whether a lot of people showed up just to see the six minute The Dark Knight Rises prologue. But everyone wins in this scenario, especially as Brad Bird has made the best of the Mission movies and it’s well suited to IMAX.
This will be the first M:I top open outside of May, as it expands to a full release on Wednesday. I fully expect it to put M:I3″s domestic gross behind it before the first of the year. $215m domestic is the series high bar and that is probably doable. The really interesting piece of the puzzle is international, which has gotten stronger in the five years since Ethan Hunt put a team together. Tom Cruise isn’t TOM CRUISE anymore, but a good international action movie is still a good international action movie. $331m was the top international for the series… and cracking that is what everyone’s really after here.
The news is less exciting for Young Adult, Hugo, and The Descendants, which are kind of floating out there waiting on an Oscar-y breeze that’s more than a month off. The latter duo have at least racked up some real dollars already. YA isn’t pacing with Thank You For Smoking numbers yet. And I think that’s a shame. I think the Par ad campaign has been hip and daring, edging out of the conventional. But “Mean Girls grow up… and it’s not pretty” hasn’t quite sunk in.
Twilight 4 is now settled into the #3 slot of the franchise’s history. It seems that the more mature content has cut off some of the younger Twi-hards. And better reviews don’t matter. Don’t worry too much for Summit. The film will still cross the $650m worldwide mark this weekend.
Carnage is the big opener in the exclusive market. But even with a Globes push in the big markets (5 screens only), $15k per is not overwhelming. It’s okay.
Correction: “Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol” should read “Dark Knight Rises Prologue.”
Man…I realize that “Alvin” and “Holmes” are debuting earlier than in 2009, but those certainly are not great numbers. Profitable numbers yes, but probably franchise killing if they don’t have major legs.
It now seems like the ceilings for the November kiddie flicks are $65 million for “Happy Feet Two,” $50 million for “Arthur Christmas” and “Hugo” and $80 million for “Muppets.” All disappointing…
Sad for “Young Adult” ='(
“Sad for “Young Adult” =’(”
But not for that 1,574% uptick! Wowza!
(yeah, typos, I know…)
I’m heading to go see Young Adult here in a few for no other reason then I have to see if it’s as bad as it’s campaign. The campaign for this film is just skievy. Theron comes across as skievy, the entire plot skievy, and Oswalt is there looking out of place. How anyone thinks that campaign would sell this movie is beyond me but this is Paramount. They wouldn’t know hip or daring even if a hipster snuck up on them and bit them on the ass! Easily one of the worst campaigns for any film in years because we all know the women come out for movies where skanks try to steal another woman’s man!
So the combined gross of the three kid films released in suicidal fashion on the same weekend is about $140M. Now I know its a bit lazy to think that everyone who turned out for all three movies would have turned out for just one, but $140m for a November kid pic seems about right.
And the thing is the market did not expand to accommodate the massive amount of product. Put Happy Feet 2 into the mix and you have four family films with a to-date combined gross of less than $200M. And 2 out of 4 were very pricey projects. I loved Hugo, but if it wasn’t Scorsese, wouldn’t there have been more ink and blogging about another box office bomb? I remember the visceral language leveled at Mars Needs Moms.
Hugo basically has till Dec 31st to make as much coin as possible, hopefully getting a second wind from critical reviews, and with a soft opening for Alvin, whose story will be written in the next 14 days as well, Hugo still has an outside shot at a somewhat respectable gross, unlike the other family flicks this season, with the exception of Puss in Boots, and Muppets.
I do hope it defies what seem to be some pretty tough odds and finds a larger audience. It is one of the best films of the year.
Isn’t this the third weekend in December? Also, Christmas falling on a Sunday has to be the most inconvenient day of the week for the movie release schedule.
“Young Adult” should have been released by a boutique label with more niche marketing experience rather than a major who only knows (most of the time anyway) how to sell tentpole-sized “event” movies. And it would have also benefited from a less Darwinian marketplace.
My guess is that Paramount was contractually obligated to open “YA” at year’s end for “awards consideration” purposes even though a spring release would have made more b.o. sense.
Too bad.
Hallick… don’t think it’s a typo… was under $90k last Friday…
YOUNG ADULT is a very dark and skeevy movie. And it’s awesome because of that. I think Diablo Cody’s writing is as funny and dark as Louis CK or any other comedian who works in that creepy, personal kind of space. The acting in the film is great too…it’s the direction I found lacking. Reitman misses some great opportunities to add to the proceedings and doesn’t at all. The film feels totally rushed and way low budget too which is fine to DO that, but viewers shouldn’t FEEL that.
The scene at the party during the second half of the movie is one of the most uncomfortable cinematic moments in a non-genre film I’ve had for quite some time. The theater was literally crawling out of their seats.
Ethan… if Sherlock is at the same number as the first on New Year’s Eve for both, is this a franchise killer?
bulldog, I’d consider “Arthur Christmas” very pricey too. $100 million is the reported budget, but considering Aardman’s last film, “Flushed Away,” cost $150 million, it might be more…
Also, “Hugo” has already made as much as “Mars Needs Moms” worldwide and has barely started its international run. Yes it will lose a good deal of money, but $100 million worldwide is still the goal.
David, last week’s Klady’s estimates was the only place I’ve seen anyone mention that Tintin opened in limited release. Could you please confirm that it actually happened?
DP, I think it will be, because by then it will probably be 4th in a crowded marketplace as opposed to 2nd in 2009.
Remember, 52%, or $107 million of the first film’s gross actually came after December 31, and I have a tough time believing the sequel has legs that are that good with the extra weekend. “I Am Legend,” a higher grossing film that opened on “this weekend” as you point out, only did about 23% of its gross, or $57 million, after December 31.
Of course if it pulls in 300 million+ internationally like the first film, this conversation is irrelevant and there will be a sequel….but I’m betting not. Also, this film supposedly cost a good deal more than the first one.
Finally, “Tron:Legacy” opened on this weekend last year, and probably a few million better than SH2….
For the record, the Dark Knight Rises prologue only played on about 10% of the Mission Impossible 4 screens. So let’s all please stop giving full credit to an eight-minute preview that played on 40 out of 400 screens for the massively successful 400 screen debut of one of the year’s most purely entertaining movies. How much of a game-changer this will be depends on how big the regular opening weekend is. If the opening weekend seems relatively unaffected or arguably boosted by supurb word of mouth, we could see IMAX sneak-openings become somewhat regular. Warner Bros will be watching this very closely. If not for The Dark Knight Rises (which arguably wants a shot at the Fri-Sun record), then for Superman Man of Steel. Heck, if Sony thinks it has the goods, we could see Amazing Spider-Man opening a few days early as well. Furthermore, even if MI4 has a lower opening weekend but still does good longterm business, this (idealistically) could see a move away from the whole ‘opening weekend is everything’ mentality.
Wonder if Paramount is kicking itself for not going wide this weekend as originally planned. M:I4 was going to go head to head with Sherlock and Alvin until the studio blinked. This weekend was there for the taking.
Actually… Dark Knight prologue is only in about 10% of the M:I4 IMAX locations this weekend
(The “actually” was meant for movielocke and others… hadn’t seen Scott’s comment)
Big G, my early take is the MI4 move looks like a good one. Sherlock had more heat coming in, but it seems that the impressive number for the limited MI4 screenings is getting just as much attention as the SH2 “disappointing” opening. Having been to an advanced MI4 screening here in Vancouver, it was all the talk in the office, and a couple of very positive user reviews which helps translate to friends telling friends that it should be the choice next weekend. I think the seed has been planted for a successful run.
Ethan G, my comment was about the difference in tone when we talk about crappy films that bomb versus quality films that bomb. Even Happy Feet 2, which has the added equation of being compared to the successful original seems to have cost less, but has made more than Hugo. And I don’t see Hugo making up that $22m difference. Yet Happy Feet 2 was derided as a box office disaster of epic proportions compared to Hugo. So much so that it was falsely accused of being the reason for the firing and shutting down of a production company. Even Green Lantern seems to have made back its production budget with the $219m worldwide gross.
bulldog68, I understand what you’re saying….and I mostly agree. Another problem with “Hugo” is…how much was the production budget? If it was $150 million like “Mars Needs Moms” as I’ve seen in some areas, then it is a borderline disaster. If it was $110 million as the other sources say (and seems more realistic) then it’ll fare about the same as “Arthur Christmas.”
And yeah the fact “Happy Feet” was Oscar winning smash is definitely not helping the sequel, but anytime you have an expensive sequel that is off 70% in revenue(despite inflation and being in 3D) you are going to get a lot of ink.
I know a lot of people like the Sherlock Holmes movies (my wife loves both), but they just don’t do much for me. I did like part 2 more than part 1. RDJ and Law make a good team, Fry is fun, there’s some good banter, and it’s got some clever and enjoyable set pieces (munitions factory, chess game). But overall it’s still mediocre.
Ritchie’s certainly impressed with his directing, and he overdoes the trifecta of slo-mo, quick cuts, & close ups. Seriously, we are supposed to be wowed by wood splintering in slow motion? He seems to think everyone will be as impressed as he is.
The pacing is off and the middle is too lumpy. Definitely drags. Rapace and Reilly are given little to nothing to do. And it should be criminal to waste Eddie Marsan like that.
My biggest beef though is with Moriarty. Here’s the greatest villain ever, Sherlock’s greatest nemesis, his toughest case. And yet the guy is hardly on screen. We’re told how brilliant he is far more than we’re shown it. Jared Harris is a great actor, and I wanted to see much more of him and the supposed evil genius he plays. As is, it felt like any other bad guy with nefarious plans. The mystery in both movies is a let down. I can’t help but wish for more.
An OK matinee, but nothing special.
And I was at the advanced screening at Silvercity Riverport Richmond, so while I got to see it two days before it officially opened, there was no Dark Knight prologue, which sucked.
Did anyone else see the new TV spots for “My Weekend With Marilyn” that said “Everywhere Christmas Day”?
Gee, does that mean Weinstein is adding an add’l 2,000 prints next weekend?
(Methinks not.)
The movie Weinstein really needs to get a move on is “The Artist.” Their plans to scale back any meaningful expansion until 2012 is befuddling to say the least. It was originally booked as an “exclusive area engagement” for Xmas at Cleveland’s premiere arthouse (where it could have bankrolled considerable WOM before going area-wide next month), but Weinstein pushed their opening back to late-ish January. Dumb.
And am I the only one who thinks that Fox Searchlight may be dropping the ball with “The Descendants” by seemingly platforming it to death?
It’s been in (successful) “limited” release since November 16th, but is still only playing on 878 screens.
“Black Swan” and “Juno” were both on three times as many screens over a comparable period of time in years past.
Oops; I meant “My Week With Marilyn.”
What’s a few days, right, lol?
“Young Adult” is one of the best films of the year with one of the best performances (Charlize Theron) of any year. She is stunning as Mavis Gary the monster from the Mini-apple. It’s a relentlessly dark comedy that will probably turn off 90% of its paying audience. Meanwhile, the other 10% will think it’s the greatest thing ever. An absolute must see.
ALL HAIL THE RETURN OF KING CRUISE. Packed audiences CHEERING THE TRIUMPHANT RETURN of the COOLEST MAN EVER.
Plus the movie kicks TOTAL ASS. CRUISE 4 EVER.
Everyone go see YOUNG ADULT! I just went and saw it again last night. LOVED IT! Best film of the year IMO. Ghotocol was pretty damn good too. But I want Young Adult to kick ass at the BO so that it can help catapult Theron into the Oscar race– she’s got to edge the boring and quite horrible film ALBERT NOBBS out!
HUGE fan of Young Adult, and Diablo should win Best Screenplay… Theron is incredible in that… I don’t know what people find “skeevy” or “unlikeable.” The movie should be perfectly relatable for anyone who’s awesome and not generic.
Also, I noticed CRUISE PROTOCOL is at a fair number of NON-IMAX theaters, at least in L.A., like the Cinerama Dome. Not sure about other cities, but there’s like two dozen ‘regular’ theaters showing it around here… Was that a last-minute kind of deal to expand it a little?
Paul, he’s an unstoppable force with Shirley’s intellect. That’s a truly scary thing. It might not scare you but having a menace that great, which leads to that ending, is some scary fucking shit. You may have wanted more but I have to disagree about needing more. Someone that smart moving around nations with just his intellect, is a scary fucking thing.
Yeah Lauren, it’s not going to kick ass at the box office because it features a character who exist to give the middle finger to the middle of the country. It also has a truly skievy freaking premise that won’t appeal to most women, and this film needs the women to see it. They won’t because again no one sympathizes with a skank even if Mavis really isn’t skank. Her plan sure does reek of SKANKY!
Now, Lex, stop it with that fucking awesome bullshit because she’s not awesome. She’s fucking sad and doesn’t get that those people are happy for a reason. Mavis Geary is such a sad character and I get some of her sadness, but she’s a sad character trapped in some very contrived set-ups like USING A TAPE in 2011! Seriously, that tape opening, is such shit. Different, but such shit for a fucking character that uses a god damn macbook.
If anyone should get an Oscar from that movie. It’s Oswalt, who fucking kills it in his role, but I really can’t see them not giving Theron a nom.
Proman: as someone else pointed out last week, those Tintin numbers were accounting for a Quebec-only release.
LexG: this week’s M:I release was on IMAX “and other large-format screens.” The Dome certainly meets that criteria, no?
Seems to me that the Weinsteins are thinking THE ARTIST will do best if its wide release is positioned to capitalize on the Oscar nominations, which are announced in late January, I believe.
Thanks, WG… Explains it.
Weird how the 90% of IMAXes didn’t get the TDKR PROLOGUE, but DID get the 3-minute regular trailer that I assume is attached to Holmes.
Weird that the trailer turned out to be more impressive…
The mix-tape opening in “Young Adult” is there because Mavis is returning (or trying to return) to her high school days and the (so-called) love of her life. It has nothing to do with any kind of technology today, but the comforting memories of yesterday when she was still the Queen of the Prom and everything else in that town.
There’s a regular TDKR trailer too? Should I just go see M:IGP at the Dome and not deal with the hell that is Citywalk? Decisions, decisions.
Yes Phillip. I know why it’s there, but it’s still anachronistic. If I want anachronisms in my films, I will stick with Mr. Wes Anderson thank you very much. Seriously it’s a Mini Cooper with a tape deck that also has XM radio. If I am supposed to take that seriously then please send me a bill that covers the BENEFIT OF MY DOUBT!
Apparently going FINCHER on an Ipod or a Smartphone (the device I use when I want to get nostalgic about love lost and what not) isn’t as cool as a stereo tape deck in a 21st century Mini Cooper. I am sure the folks at BMW USA loved that one.
ETA: Yes, there is a TDKR trailer that the entirety of ONLINE GEEK MEDIA ignored for a stupid prologue, that they got to see earlier than everyone else. Seriously, the TDKR trailer is worth seeing Game of Shadows for alone.
It’s no secret that I didn’t care for the Dark Knight Rises prologue, but the actual trailer is decent, if not a patch on the incredible thrill I got seeing the first Dark Knight trailer this weekend four years ago (that thing made me feel like a kid again, so now I suppose I’m nostalgic for my own nostalgia). I’m not sure why Warner Bros didn’t promote the Dark Knight Rises trailer that 99% of the country actually had access to, but that first Dark Knight trailer dropping with 35mm prints of I Am Legend was a total surprise as well. nosta.
Pardon the weird typo on the end. Was sent from a phone and I thought it was fixed.
I liked Hathaway in her LITTLE CAT MASK. Yay!
I did not see a single TV promo for the new Chipmunks film and could not be happier about that.
I’ve seen a few… Hard to begrudge something a) so silly and b) JASON LEE, who’s admittedly gone WAY downhill in terms of awesomeness level since his MALLRATS (my favorite KS movie)-Smith/Enemy of the State/Almost Famous/Vanilla Sky heyday… I even watched the first few years of EARL just because Lee was iconic to me– What was that middling-but-cute romcom with Schwimmer and that SMOKING HOT Israeli chick who should’ve been a bigger star? Lee owned that entire movie as the third wheel.
I don’t know why he’s stuck alternating between kiddie movies and series TV (unless he likes it, which is cool) when he should have guys lining up to cast him in movies.
I’m also mystified by his ever-changing hair-loss pattern, which is approaching Costner-levels where you think it’s finally gonna go, then it’s back, but back in a way that he wasn’t losing it before, then it’s matted, then going again, etc, repeat.
Yancy- I say strike while the iron is hot. While I’m not suggesting “The Artist” should open on 3,000 screens tomorrow, I think a sensible expansion in all of the major markets (including Cleveland) before year’s end makes perfect marketing sense. Why not take advantage of the GG/BFCA nominations, and all of those crix groups’ awards that its won in the past few weeks? As I mentioned previously, that type of savvy platforming could only enhance WOM once it truly widens come Oscar nod time.
Lauren- I didn’t find “Albert Nobbs” “boring” or “horrible” (it’s too well made and acted for that). The biggest problem the film has–and it’s pretty insurmountable as far as I’m concerned–is that I never believed Close or McTeer could fool anyone into thinking they were men. (Both, especially McTeer, looked like butch lesbians.) That sort of thing has always been more acceptable on stage where it’s easier to suspend one’s disbelief and go with the whole “theatrical artifice” thing. But in the more realistic confines of a movie, you’d damn well better have convincing make-up because the camera never lies.
If Box Office Mojo is to be believed, The Artist hits 170 screens on 12/23 – should take care of Cleveland – while Marilyn comes back to 400 or so.
Dave, could you please address my question about Tintin’s supposed limited release? Did that actually happen last week or not? Thanks!
I believe it was in French-speaking Canada, Proman. I’m sure Len will address it tomorrow.
Proman there’s this thing called google. It helps find stuff. http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118047617?refcatid=13&printerfriendly=true
With like eight movies opening between Tuesday and Sunday, and apparently shit coming BACK that was more limited before, plus the big dicks like DRAGON TATTOO or HOLMES no doubt getting 3 screens a theater… is it gonna be that weird holiday multiplex thing where big-time movies like ZOO or WAR HORSE or TINTIN are playing in the 50-seat shoebox at the end of the wing at Pacific?
Never believe anything on B.O. Mojo, WG. (I still can’t believe they eliminated their b.o. derby game!)
If it’s widening to 170 prints, it’s probably just adding screens in areas that are already playing it. I know for a fact that Cleveland isn’t opening “Artist” until January 20th (and nowhere else in Ohio is opening it this month either: I did my homework, lol).
I see. Thanks!
By the way, even thought it was in French speaking section of Canada, shouldn’t it still be considered part of domestic box office though? I always thought that *all* of Canadian grosses contributed towards that.
That’s, of course, is exactly why Klady is including it his list. My point is, shouldn’t every other site, do the same? Canada IS domestic box office, no matter what part.