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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates By New Year’s Baby Klady

So… “The 10% Principle” worked on the smaller films… not so much on the bigger ones,in this case, M:I4 and Holmes2. Those two ran between 35% and 40% off of Monday’s number all week. What does it mean? (shrug) People didn’t stay as excited about them as they did for Avatar or the first Holmes movie.

Trying to do box office analysis in the situation of a holiday and shifting days of the week connected to holidays and so forth is a bit maddening. So I’m not going to kill myself today with it. But I did think about perspective and that led me to last year’s numbers. These are the Top Ten numbers at the end of the holiday weekend of New Year’s 2010 into 2011.

Little Fockers – 103.1
True Grit Par – 86.7
Tron: Legacy – 131
Yogi Bear – 65.7
Narnia: Dawn Trader – 87
The Fighter – 46.4
Tangled – 167.9
Gulliver’s Travels – 27.1
Black Swan – 47.3
The King’s Speech – 22.7

Note that this year’s holiday movies still have 3 more days of holiday in which to add to their coffers.

Mission and Sherlock surely surpass Fockers and Tron. Chipmunks kicks Yogi’s butt. There is no True Grit in this year’s group, with Dragon Tattoo running about 30% behind it. Tangled clearly held much better than any November movie this year. Titnin won’t end the year with Narnia numbers given very different release dates, but in the end, they could well be fairly close. Zoo should be at Fighter/Black Swan numbers by Tuesday and War Horse will be pretty close… even though last year’s two films had a big head start.

Overall, I’d say this December is looking a lot like Last December. No big break-out. Last year, two sequels and two remakes were on top at this time. This year, it’s 3 sequels and 1 remake. The only animals last yer were animated or medicated. This year, we have animated, medicated, owned, and miraculous. But last year did have surprise on its side. People were genuinely surprised by how well True Grit did, as well as Black Swan and The Fighter. This year, even the underdogs are overdogs, whether they were directed by Spielberg, Scorsese, Crowe, or Fincher.

More year-end box office digging to come…

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12 Responses to “Friday Estimates By New Year’s Baby Klady”

  1. Dan says:

    Where’s the article we can see on the front page?

  2. David Poland says:

    What does that mean, Dan?

  3. Rob says:

    I’ve made peace with Young Adult crawling to $15-16 million. If you’ve seen the movie (and I love it), you know that’s not actually a bad number.

    My Week w/Marilyn and Shame really hit the arthouse wall. It’s going to be tough for those two to stick around until Oscar night.

    The Artist also seems a little soft, considering. At my local arthouse theaters, the largest screens/sellouts are all going to Tinker Tailor.

  4. Rob says:

    Wow, just realized I wrote that comment after looking at BOM’s Friday chart. Sorry!

  5. EthanG says:

    “We Bought A Zoo” has recovered nicely…too bad it cost $50 million(?)

    Who would have guessed that MI4 would be the 2nd biggest post-summer film this year behind Twilight, and be bigger than the last couple Bond movies?

  6. David Poland says:

    Uh, me.

    Of course, foreign is still the bigger issue for the film and its context in the year.

  7. David Poland says:

    Rob – Tinker Tailor remains the per-screen king of the limited releases so far. It’s been written off by a lot of people, most because of the confusion issue, but there still seems to be enough word of mouth in this limited number of communities to push it ahead of the stuff being positioned as awards leaders. Odd and interesting.

  8. Jarod says:

    TGWTDT is being reported at 5.3 million elsewhere.

    Interesting that TGWTDT is being spun as a failure.

    I wouldn’t call War Horse a failure at this point, but a total of less than $50 million through Jan. 2 is a disappointment, so far.

  9. LexG says:

    Is it true IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY has been pulled from pretty much everywhere? It’s 100% gone from LA after what seemed like less than a week; Is it coming back in a month, or is it completely gone until DVD?

    W.E., same question. I’m also not holding my breath for the returns of other one-week wonders The Lady, Coriolanus, Sleeping Beauty from earlier in the month.

  10. EthanG says:

    You thought MI4 would finish ahead of Sherlock 2, Alvin 3, Puss, etc domestically?? Really? Well kudos then DP…the only thing I predicted right this fall is Happy Feet 2 bombing…

  11. movieman says:

    I’m pretty sure “Coriolanus” and “Blood & Honey” will both return for regular engagements early next year in LA. (Like “W.E.” and “The Lady,” they were just one-week, “Oscar-qualifying” runs.)
    Not so confident about the others returning to a theater near you, however. I’ve seen better movies fall into distribution black holes after failing to accrue any serious awards mention after their one-week “Oscar-qualifying” runs.

  12. Dan says:

    What’s your take on the War Horse numbers, David? It seems a bit soft compared to the raised expectations following its opening.

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