Delivelution: DVD R.I.P. 1996 – 2015
It started with the DVD of Twister, which was released in Japan in 1996 and in the US in Spring 1997.
It ends with a wi-fi breeze, as, sensible or not, the studios are now officially getting out of the DVD business. By 2015, only pirates will be producing and distributing discs.
And yet, the technology to get off of discs and onto streaming and digital download as the primary delivery systems is, ahem, still unsettled. Not to put too fine a point on it, Ultraviolet is still buggy as the E.G. Marshall episode of Creepshow. It doesn’t work right on Apple computers, though you need to use your computer to plug the code from your DVDs into the system. It offers download as an option… but that doesn’t work on Macs or iPads or the like.
Ultraviolet promises a link to televisions – on some level redundant if you own the DVD/Blu-ray – but isn’t linked to Sony’s PS3 (as Nextflix, Hulu, CinemaNow, Video Unlimited, and Vudu are) or, as far as I can tell, anything else that will play on a HDTV.
A couple of days ago, WalMart announced the kind of deal that could have saved some record stores for another year or two longer than they lasted. (I’m pretty sure I wrote about this notion for music about 8 years ago.) It’s quite simple. For $2 or $5, depending on whether you own a Blu-ray or a DVD, you can purchase a digital copy of said film in a cloud.
They are calling it “conversion,” but in fact, there is no conversion. Like the digital copy option now on many DVDs sold at retail, all they are really doing is selling you a new product – a new delivery option – and adding you to the access list. Your hard disc is proof that you have already paid a larger amount to get this access at this price.
It’s very much like the iTunes cloud option, which will “convert” your music library into a cloud for $25 a year, so you don’t need to overwhelm your iPhone or iPad (max space, 64 gigs) with music and still have access to your entire music library at any time at any place. If your music isn’t available in the already existing iTunes library, they will load it to the cloud… but most record-company music is now in the iTunes library, so all they need to do is to give you access to their already existing massive cloud.
And now, Apple is doing a movie cloud as well.
Fore everyone who thinks of the industry as simply being greedy and stupid, this is a reminder of how stupid they are not. Basically, they are squeezing a bit of revenue out of a moment of change. By 2015, anyone who would care enough to lug a bunch of DVDs down to WalMart for “cloud conversion” is likely going to be paying for cloud access to much larger libraries that include the individual titles they’ll pay for in the interim. The price isn’t onerous. The service has value. And the next generation is already coming.
Meanwhile, this process doesn’t put a greater burden on the already buggy Ultraviolet, as these films will be available through Vudu, WalMart’s streaming service, which unlike Ultraviolet is already hooked up to more than “300 Internet-connected devices,” many of which stream to your HD television.
This is the quietly undersold part of this deal with WalMart. The Vudu. The Ultraviolet group is trading, in part, technology that isn’t quite working right yet for Vudu – WalMart’s company, bought in 2010 – which works well.
Things are now moving incredibly fast, as the industry’s faith in hard discs as a business has already bottomed out… and this is the part where the industry starts to look a bit greedy and dumb. They are rushing into a technology that has, essentially, the classic million dollar body and 5 cent brain. People keep quoting the percentage of web space Netflix is eating. Now imagine that traffic multiplied by 100… and you get some sense of the industry’s target. And then wonder… how is this all going to fit? And then add on… with AT&T and others throttling data use, how is The 99% going to pay for all this great “service?”
The easy answer – and you’ll hear it – is that the discs still exist, so it doesn’t matter… only so many people will convert to cloud service, etc. But once Hollywood starts turning the boat, the boat turns and not incrementally. It’s not always fast. That’s why I am giving it 3 years to make the change. But you can already see the signs of diminished interest on the retailing side.
Even in the WalMart deal, there is a big red sign… when you take discs to WalMart for “conversion,” you will go to the Photo area, NOT the Home Entertainment area. This is not being used as an opportunity for WalMart to make their Home Ent business stronger, but just to generate high-end foot traffic and also build the base of Vudu users, who they and the industry hopes will soon skip buying discs altogether and just buy digitally.
But to paraphrase Carl Gottlieb/Roy Scheider… we need a bigger internet. This seems to be the part where the studios are just like us. The internet is an extremely cheap delivery service, essentially. It’s cool. There will be circumstances in which over 100,000 people or even over 1 million people seek to upload one thing at the same time. But mostly, if you have Blazing Saddles on “your cloud” – which is really Fox’s cloud or Vudu’s cloud or Apple’s cloud – along with 50 million other people, heavy usage in any given 2 hours would probably be 1000 calls for that upload. Point is, it doesn’t cost them much to have every film sit on their server and be there when the call comes… because for most films over 2 years old, it will be more like 10 viewings per 10 million subscribers at a time, max.
But can the infrastructure of the web handle this exponential growth in use? Who is paying for that? And as the home wi-fi providers throttle that service in lieu of higher prices, who is going to pay for all this access?
No doubt, it will all work out eventually. There is too much money in play for it not to work out. I have long projected post-theatrical studio subscriptions to be a future $15 billion a year business for each major studio/subscription group.
But remember when word processing was buggy and unreliable and you lost a lot of work when programs crashed and you hadn’t saved aggressively? Remember how good typewriters seemed as the computers and word processing software slowly improved so this was not a constant threat?
Cloud life if coming. It makes too much sense. Anytime. Anywhere. But I don’t expect it to really work until near 2020. For 3 or 4 years, after DVD is dead and buried, it will be like torture… buggy and expensive. (see: cell phone bills, circa 1999.)
But here we go… ready or not…
“the studios are now officially getting out of the DVD business. By 2015, only pirates will be producing and distributing discs.”
How about a link for this? Nobody else seems to be reporting this news.
It’s not reportable news. Studios don’t announce this kind of thing. It’s my projection based on the facts.
It will be “reported” in 2014… much as the end of film prints is being reported now.
Wait…. the studios are “officially” getting out of the DVD biz….
But there’s nothing to report.
That’s official…. how exactly?
This is total bullshit, I just went to Best Buy and bought DRIVE and SUCKER PUNCH on DVD, because like 99% of America, I have an old non-HD TV and I live in an apartment where you can’t have a booming home theater system, and I’m on a budget so DVD is good enough.
All this STREAMING NEW TECHNOLOGY SHIT, you are NEVER going to get an OLD PERSON to understand. My mom finally mastered the VCR in 1995 and still needs someone to put the DVD in and explain what buttons on the remote to press. She or anyone else’s mom or pop or uncle isn’t gonna be creating a CLOUD or STREAMING or any of that horseshit.
This is Poland Mr IPAD I-WHATEVER thinking the rest of the world is as plugged in to new technology as an LA journo. They are not.
And I’m SURE you’re gonna delete this post.
It’s used rhetorically, story. Oy.
Broadband data usage definitely has to be resolved or improved for this to work. Right now, I agree that we are years away based on how things are currently. It could change sure, but there has been no indication of this. Curiously, I wonder what the data says Sprint has done now offering iPhones and no data caps. I wonder if they have made in-roads over AT&T? I am guessing it is miniscule.
Until the data caps are fixed and speeds are increased (I do not want the movie pausing while it downloads), they will see a portion switch to the cloud, but it won’t be overwhelmingly.
Secondly, the studios should come together to charge for this (if this is indeed coming the way DP says). People are not going to pay a $15 per month charge for each studio to access their movie database, especially on top of cable, netflix, HBO2GO, etc. They are mistaken if they think that will work. Now, if they got together and offered $15-20 a month for access to all, unlimited, then I think this could be a big boon. They could probably have different price points for newer movies (< 30 days, similar to redbox/netflix) and for Blu-Ray quality downloads. I am just guessing, but the price point for TV/movie content per family is probably $100-150 a month. Studios would need to figure out how to be within that with cable, netflix/huluplus, HBO, etc). But this is just my opinion. Perhaps others will pay more for content and for more data/month.
That seems a bit accelerated, though, doesn’t it? Because last I checked, you can still buy CDs, even if they’re not the preferred method for a lot of people these days? Is this not analogous in a way I’m failing to see?
I mean, it seems pretty likely CDs will still be around in 2015, even if in further diminished stock/standing/etc.
Further to the obsolescence issue: doesn’t it seem pretty likely that physical media will hang around for awhile if only as a collector’s thing? Vinyl has seen a minor resurgence in the transition to mp3s, and my guess is that ten or fifteen years down the line, most people will download albums, while those who like the physical album art and all that, something to put on the shelf or what-not, will be buying the special vinyl edition for $25-30 that includes a free download, or maybe the $50 edition from the band that comes with vinyl, nicer artwork, a t-shirt, whatever. Hell, this is probably how it works now for a lot of people… but those of us who don’t have a working record player but do like the physical CD library (without having any particular sentiment attachment to the CD format in particular).
Correspondingly, are the Criterion nerds going to say fuck it, streaming rules, get me my Night of the Hunter Blu-Ray on a cloud? Or will those packages just turn into smaller collector type runs in nice packaging for the few people who still want them? Is Criterion going to turn into a high-end download company, or go out of business? Neither of those seem entirely likely to me.
“Cloud life if coming. It makes too much sense. Anytime. Anywhere. But I don’t expect it to really work until near 2020. For 3 or 4 years, after DVD is dead and buried, it will be like torture… buggy and expensive.”
That’s exactly why DVDs *won’t* die out by 2015. If some new thing, however much the studios want it, is too torturous, buggy, and expensive for consumers, then consumers will demand an alternative — and that alternative will be to continue with what they already know, are comfortable with, and isn’t broken.
Not saying this transition won’t happen, but the idea that DVDs won’t be around in three years is absurd.
You kind of prove my point: “(see: cell phone bills, circa 1999.)” Land lines aren’t even dead NOW, but never mind: in 1999, nobody was even thinking of *replacing* their land lines with cell phones. The cell phone world had to get its act together *before* people started transitioning instead of merely supplementing.
I ask this because I don’t know: Are people embracing Apple’s iCloud for music?
I’m not saying they’re not, but I don’t understand the appeal. I have the 64GB ipod-like device, and can store all the music I need plus a few seasons of tv and 5-10 movies. Why should I pay less upfront for memory only to end up paying more monthly for the cloud?
30 minute audio about the latest cloud technology –
the slashfilm guys had lots of problems on different video
devices …
The /Filmcast: After Dark – Ep. 174 – The State of Video on Demand
click play or download
http://www.slashfilm.com/filmcast-dark-ep-174-state-video-demand/
Lex – Did you read the whole piece?
“Cloud life if coming. It makes too much sense. Anytime. Anywhere. But I don’t expect it to really work until near 2020. For 3 or 4 years, after DVD is dead and buried, it will be like torture… buggy and expensive. (see: cell phone bills, circa 1999.)”
While I think alot of what DP wrote is pretty speculative (which is also the point, duh) I totally agree that DVD will be done or firmly on the way out by 2015. Just like VHS got killed by DVD, blu ray and the affordability of blu ray players will wax DVD. I remain unsold on the cloud stuff though. As is pointed out, still kinda buggy and confusing (for some).
Jesse – The Criterion Collection is already on Hulu.
Lex – 99% of the country is not watching old box TVs. But not, HD is not near 1005 saturation either. But your mom and you will – as you already can – stream through your cable/satellite boxes. And those ARE in over 90% of TV households.
Sam – Sure. I am exaggerating. But I would argue – and live as an example – that cell phones are still problematic… but they are ubiquitous. And that’s why landline cutting has become popular. Do you know anyone who doesn’t complain about their cell service now?
But yes… physical ownership will still be valued by some people for decades to come. And some people still watch things on BetaMax.
Jason B – I think there will be bundling of various kinds. But I would expect that HBO, for instance, will become a part of the Time-Warner package. And would expect that “premium access” will be about $60 – $75 and the rest of your real-time access (cable/satellite/local) will be $50 – $75.
But DVD to Blu Ray is just an upgrade, essentially. It’s still physical media that you pop into a machine. I think it’s entirely plausible and probable that DVD or Blu will go the way of the CD, but saying it’s going to entirely be phased out within a couple of years shows a pretty minimal understanding of how average consumers still consume films. I have to agree with MoretzRules (who is this mysterious person?!), in that I only know young people and very tech/media savvy people to be into streaming only now, and they generally still have some physical media that they purchase. (I’m going to ignore the issue that iTunes for music is a different thing because music is music whereas films don’t work as well on a laptop, but I’m resigned to the fact that not everyone feels the same way about that.)
And don’t get me wrong. I love streaming Netflix, HBOGO, and Hulu on my TV. I’m amazed at all the stuff that I have access to. I just think it’s going to be a long while before it’s accessible to the mainstream.
Ah, “Official” speculation, got it.
Jkill is spot on this the line: ” I think it’s entirely plausible and probable that DVD or Blu will go the way of the CD, but saying it’s going to entirely be phased out within a couple of years shows a pretty minimal understanding of how average consumers still consume films.”
David, I’m aware that the Criterion Collection is on Hulu. That’s a fine deal for them on the side for their back catalog as a body of work. But what would the future of that company be, then, if it goes to streaming? “New from the Criterion Collection: A nice transfer of an old movie, available for streaming!”? Criterion rarely seems to end up with EXCLUSIVE rights to most of its movies, and the appeal of their brand is very rarely the simply ability to watch a particular movie. They make money by putting out the best-curated edition, yes?
So do they become basically a rights/branding company? Or do they keep making discs that, realistically, most households will still be able to play readily and with little reluctance for another decade or more?
I just don’t see every company that specializes in this sort of stuff saying screw it, we’re a Hulu Content Supplier now… any more than indie labels thrive by paying attention to iTunes and nothing else.
I feel like it wasn’t that long ago that stories about Blu-ray’s failure to gain wide acceptance were being written.
cyber security – all this cloud stuff probably requires credit cards and hackers can get into these digital devices ..
last year sony ps3 got hacked into and credit cards were hacked into …so the biggest media companies can get into trouble .
sony – microsoft – apple – google – have millions of customers – even if 10,000 got hacked into or have software problems and stuff doesn’t work ..thats a pain
for tech support .
JKill– how do you stream HBOGo on your TV?? Is it available through the PS3 finally??
Don, I stream through a Roku. I’m not sure if the PS3 can do it yet, but I think there have been recent price drops on the Roku. It might be worth it for HBOGO alone, if the PS3 can’t do it, because access to their originals library is amazing.
Average consumers were not dissatisfied with DVDs.
Average consumers were not dissatisfied with VHS.
Average consumers were not dissatisfied with audio tape.
Average consumers were not dissatisfied with records.
As best I can tell from a variety of sources, it took HDTV less than 2 years to go from under 1/4 household penetration to over 2/3 household penetration… more than doubling.
Yes… obviously a bit hyperbolic. And JKill also got, clearly intentional.
But underestimating the undertow when The Industry decides on something like this is not well considered.
Same issue with the shortened theatrical window. These companies are willing to leave money on the table in order to move forward into whatever they think of as “next.”
I understand exactly how people currently consume Home Entertainment. And I understand how flawed or inaccessible streaming is for may people… though it is worth pointing out that about 1/4 of households use or have used Netflix streaming. That’s fairly mainstream.
I also understand that services like HBOGo are now in the process of migrating to cable nets and being integrated as a multiple stream experience… not just streaming… not just on demand.
My expectation for the next number of years is that you will pay an amount similar to what is paid now for, say, HBO… and that amount will allow you all forms of access… not all of which you will have to use. The upside for HBO or other companies/studios is a wide expansion of their subscriber base.
So… if HBO stayed at 20m subscribers at an average of about $8 per household, adding HBOGO and/or WB feature films and/or WB TV library access would make no sense financially. But the offering of ALL of that for $8 a month – including cable/satellite – works for customers AND Time-Warner if the subscriber base expands to 75 million because the broader package appeals to so much wider a swath of subscribers.
I believe the only way to stream HBO Go legally on your TV is via the one cable provider they are now streaming to a set-top box through.
You can’t stream HBO Go via PS3 directly… or as far as I know, Roku or Apple TV.
And I still can’t stream ESPN to my iPad because DirecTV hasn’t made a deal with them.
Jesse – Hulu pays Criterion, obviously.
I don’t know what their sales are on most titles. But clearly, it’s a niche business. They get almost double the “normal” retail price for their packages. And their niche will likely stick to their discs longer than anyone else.
They are a classic tweener in all of this. The “average” person is okay with the quality of cable, satellite, and usually, streaming. They seek content over a perfect image. So that is their market for expansion.
On the other hand, their core business is loaded with people who live and die over the aspect ratio.
No doubt, they will try to do both for as long as they can.
But long term, I expect they become a great curator.
Roku and HBOGO have a deal. It started several months back. I wouldn’t be doing it if it wasn’t legal.
http://www.roku.com/hbo-partner
Sorry… my error.
Two things: I am not sure how often David goes to Wal-Mart, but one statement demonstrates that it’s not that often. If you know anything about Wal-Marts. You know that the photo area is ADJACENT TO THE ENTERTAINMENT AREA. This is how it works at every 21st century Wal-Mart, so they technically are doing it right by their entertainment center.
2) Also, you have yet to address the broadband situation in this country every time you bring this up. Broadband companies are going to be treating their customers like crooks in July, with their new anti-piracy bullshit.
They also are still capping both home and phone data usage, so when does that stop? When do we get unlimited everything and thus making the cloud make sense? Until you or anyone else can figure out what would be in the best interest of a bunch of scumbag telecoms to treat their customers like people. All of this will be speculation because the future doesn’t appear to e UNLIMITED. It appears to be CAPPED for a shit price on devices that can easily exceed those caps with ease.
Oh yeah, only a sucker would use the iCloud. The future of the CLOUD is Audiogalaxy. I can carry almost all my music with me (they still have weirdness with DRM they need to fix) on my phone, and that’s exceedingly better than carrying an iPod around with me. Even though I know for some, 64g is enough, but it’s not enough for me.
One more thing, Criterion as a curator makes zero since because these studios and producers like Studio Canal, can be the curator’s themselves. Criterion in and of itself has nothing. They create a great collection of films but if Paramount wants to yank Harold and Maude from them to put out their special edition. THEY CAN DO THAT and that’s what Studio Canal did with a bunch of titles including The Third Man.
Seriously, the Criterion Collection on Hulu is good and all, but no one gets into Criterion to stream it. It’s about owning that collection, having all the spine numbers, and the various editions. Unless Criterion can figure out how to create that experience in a digital age, they will always need Discs and BDs, because owning a piece of the collection is the entire point of it in the first place.
Crap. I stream HBOGo through my iPad which is actually fine but sometimes I’d prefer a bigger screen and I flatly refuse to buy anymore streaming devices OR any more subscriptions to things. We have AT&T Cable (which still suuuuucks) and through that HBO/SHOWTIME and everything else except Starz for some reason. I have a Netflix and a Hulu. I’m tapped out.
I love the Criterions on Hulu but as I’ve said before, without the special features, they just aren’t the same. I enjoy the freedom (well, $8/month) of being able to watch them but I think along with the “Criterion” tag comes a little mini-film school on why the film is considered “CRITERION WORTHY.” I wonder if there’s a way to make available audio-commentary’s and special features without mucking everything up?
Don, do you use the iPad HDMI cable thing so you can watch it on your TV? Also, I have UVERSE from Att, and have everything. How is it their cable sucks so much ass?
“It’s not reportable news. Studios don’t announce this kind of thing. It’s my projection based on the facts.”
You really want to be seen as some kind of delivery Kreskin. In this case you’re in Criswell territory.
Christian, you get this: http://tinyurl.com/624jqwo for referencing Kreskin and Criswell in the same sentence.
While bandwidth and capacity are certainly issues, what you didn’t touch on is the fact that there is still a significant percentage of the US where cable modem connection isn’t available. Sure, it’s rural America, but they watch movies too, and satellite and/or slow DSL isn’t going to provide decent quality streaming. Unless the government steps in and cables low density areas, it ain’t going to happen – there aren’t enough subscriber dollars to justify the physical expense. True nationwide 4G? That will be even longer in coming, IMO. Heck, we still don’t have universal cell coverage in the US (ever tried to make an AT&T cell call in Santa Monica?), so until the basic infrastructure is there, there will still be a market for physical media.
Oh, and to MoretzRules – I’m old, and my PARENTS get streaming… so maybe your theory isn’t that solid.
the walmart where i go – it takes 2 minutes to go to entertainment area to photo booth area ..
everytime i go i notice the photo area is way crowded with all sorts of people 0 if they gave out coupons for movie downloads they would get more customers i’m sure …
“Last week, AT&T said customers will experience slower access speeds if their data usage exceeds 3 gigabytes a month. ”
how many movies can 1 person watch on their ipad ?
i’m sure DP watches at least 5 movies a day on that thing. he has too for all them dp/30’s .
JSP… again… did you read the whole piece before getting into your notion of what isn’t mentioned?
If Hollywood can convince other nations to hand over citizens who are doing things that are legal in their own nations, I’m sure it can convince carriers to raise or eliminate data caps.
JS- I don’t have that cord but will look into it. THANKS!
As for why uVerse sucks, in my opinion…
They have no idea how to program for TV episodes. EVERY channel (“free” like basic cable AND “pay” like HBO/SHO) has scattered episodes instead of a run of a season or even 5-6 in a row. For instance…
On my HBO AT&T menu, I can watch episodes 5,6,7 and 9 of THE WIRE, season one. WTF is the purpose of THAT?? I guess if I want to relive random episodes of a show I’ve seen it’s great but, I don’t. I’m trying to catch up on the entire series. All the old shows are like that. Current ones seem up to date but vanish randomly. Like, GAME OF THRONES season one was on there in it’s entirety, then gone. Now it’s back. I think.
Maybe they don’t have any control over what HBO gives them but I had similar issues last year trying to finish off TERRIERS and they had like, 4 random episodes spanning the season. Many channels have zero TV shows which again, may not be their fault. But then why bother to have that channel listed? It seems like they launched regardless of what content they had access to. I don’t remember Comcast having varied, random episodes.
I guess I somehow imagine someone cares about the programming but it’s likely just thrown together by a computer. But what’s the point of offering random episodes of a show? It’s frustrating.
AT&T also pissed me off because last summer we went on vacation and forgot to pay the bill. No biggie, we expected a shut off and a fee to restart it. Our bad and that’s the way it goes. However AT&T charges $30 per SUBSCRIPTION. So…a separate $30 for cable, telephone and internet. $90. Fucking dicks.
Question: I mainly watch Region 2 DVDs on my non-region DVD player. Are the European DVD companies bailing out in 2015 as well?
David, yes, but you have still not answered the questions, and you obviously never go to Wal-Mart. Seriously, you can keep writing these pieces, like you have since the 2008 or 9, but you never answer key questions.
I do love that you give me flak, when two other people pointed out the same. Get pissy or what not, but these columns all lack the same answers to the same questions. The #1 questions being… WHERE ARE WE GOING TO GET THE BANDWITH FROM DAVID? WHERE?
Don, I have one box that brings me all three of my Uverse services. Instead of charging me one fee. They charge me the 30 BUCKS FOR THREE SERVICES THAT RUN THROUGH ONE BOX! They are so antiquated as a company, that I shocked so many people use them for cell/smart phone service.
And all those MOD companies doing so smashingly like Warner Archives will just be pirates after 2015?
Hey Moretzrules – your MOM isn’t the target for any of this stuff. WE are. If I randomly stopped 100 people on the street and asked them what kind of tv they had, I GUARANTEE you 75% would say a flat screen. So I’m not sure what you’re going on about, but you need to accept the fact that this shit is coming, whether you (or your mom) like it or not. David may be jumping the gun on some things in his article, but the fact remains that the studios and telcos dictate what and HOW we consume. End of story.
Mike,
I’m fully embracing Apple’s iTunes in the cloud.
Essentially, Apple’s eliminated the need for terabyte HD’s with the icloud service.
Now with movies, the ability to redownload a film as much as you want on any of the idevices that you have, for anyone in the Apple ecosystem, that’s pretty much the nail in the coffin for physical media.
Personally, I’ve been wanting to go digital but the idea of having to have a massive HD to keep as many movies was I wanted was not an ideal situation…because of the nature of backing up said movies. If you’re really particular about your digital movies, you’d at least back them up on several different places.
With iCloud, no more.
This also cuts down on the clutter that can come from being a physical collector, which when you think about it, isn’t manageable in the long run. Think about one’s collection 15 to 20 years from now? It’s a scary thought to have that many movies on one’s shelf.
Sure, you can just rent and be done with it but as cinema fans, we all want the ability to go back when we’re in the mood to watch something we haven’t watched in a long while. And frankly, I don’t want to have to search to find out where I can rent said old film in this era of rental. There’s just too many damn options.
I ain’t saying I’m 100% done with Blu Ray’s but I’m pretty damn close. I’ll still get Indiana Jones on Blu Ray when it hits this September, but the new releases…digital.
The FCC actually control and dictate how and what we consume, and that’s why ATT and T-Mobile are not going to merger. Forcing everyone to get a digital converter box or upgrade their TVs, had to have pushed the needle a little bit. This does not change the fact that not everyone has a flat-screen TV or even cable or even the internet. Thus, expecting people to just shut up and take it, ignores that for the most part people do this stuff at their own pace. A pace that does not always warrant change for change’s sake.
Agreed. But when there is this much money at stake, and a very powerful content ‘lobby’, things get accelerated. A few years ago, everyone had to get rid of their rabbit ear antennas no? We’re going to see more and more of these forced changes, and they will happen faster than in the past.
i hope this theory applies to the US only, otherwise we are royally screwed here considering we currently don’t have ANY kind of instant streaming for movies and even our VOD has a stone-age availability delay, long live blu-ray (wait, is blu part and parcel with DVD supposedly going the way of the dodo? i’m a bit confused. and scared. blu-rays are my preciousssss, pry them out of my cold, dead hands).
And the assumption that 300 million Americans are using iCloud and therefore all physical media is dead is the product of very insulated minds. No offense Cory.
None taken. I know everybody’s not going to use it. And, I think it’s going to be longer than 2015 for DVDs/Blu Ray’s to be completely gone.
But, for this cinema lover, Apple completely converted me with their announcement on the 7th.
Soon to be listed on eBay – Leah’s cold, dead hands.
>.>
<.<
I happen to agree with a lot of what has been said here, even the hyperbole. Ive done home entertainment financial modelling, based library valuations on them and looked at the NPV of content companies. In one of the last models I did, we removed DVD from the company’s P&L, replaced it with projected streaming revenues and potential VOD subs.
That was before Marginal Call which has kind of changed the way filmmakers with certain types of films will platform films. And more of those will bring VOD more to the forefront. The next Gosling/Refn movie, which TWC will be doing this with, VOD day and Date will help grow the penetration again.
What i believe and from my position its only a belief, but i think its more or less true.
1. DVD will not disappear entirely, but will primarily be phased out. Studios will still produce DVD but in vastly smaller quantities. the chart will be a downward diagonal until it plateaus comfortable near the bottom. They continued to produce VHS for a long time after DVD was the primary unit. By doing this they wont have to worry about the over supply problems (Dreamworks on one of the Shreks sequels) that can seriously hurt Home Ent profitability. Strategic planning groups will push this as this math (their math) will be projectable off of all the variables they have so the models will become over a year or three very very accurate without nearly any fluxuation or at least nothing anyone will notice besides a quant.
2. Critereon and all the studios will produce commemorative editions like vinyl Records. Collector editions. People who understand Critereon Collections and who buy these expensive discs will still want the add ons as they are film nerds, like me. Like Vinyl there will be a download/streaming code. most people dont care who the producer on a film is or what studio it is from they just want to watch the movie their friend told them to. So these movies will stream both ways on whatever sites they have deals with.
3. You wont really even notice that buying physical copies is getting harder, one day you will just look for the digital copy first. It happens, its subtle, but we play with marketing and distribution to make it so, ex, download the DVD for Young Adult on March 27th instead of buy the dvd. subtle but you’ll get used to it.
4. yes, it will be a bitch for a while because of broadband, but they will figure out the technical glitches. Netflix got better.
5. Studios are in a follower not leader type of business, which is what silicon value doesnt understand about them. They follow each other because the individual products are unique versions the same broad product so they cant be separate from each other. They all have to conform to certain technical specs. Unlike HBO which is a separate product.
6. As to your old DVDs on tube TVs. I know people dont have screening rooms but everybody whose house I have been in recently has at least one flatscreen including someones broke random friend who lives in his parents basement in Iowa so i think everyone does. Hollywood thins like this. Remember hollywood/Manhattan doesnt really know anyone who is poor or middle of the country who didnt at least go to a good college so we think everyone is like us. Isnt this what Black friday sales are for?
7. Windowing will still exist for a long time. its a way to get paid multiple times. Get used to it. Also who wants to pay $60 to watch a crappy ben stiller movie at home. But ill pay 30 to take some chick to the movie and get out of the house so i did something. Taking kids to the movies is about taking them somewhere and distracting them.
9. Media bills. Right now $130 for cable + Braodband + HBO/SHO, $20 for Netflix, $100 for Phone = 250 a month. the industry is going to have to figure out if they really think people can pay more per month. This is a huge question.
In the end i think DP is right even with the hyperbole, 3-5 years from now DVD will be a small part of home entertainment.
Well, that’s hardly a major projection: someday DVD’s will not be the dominant media.
Arisp, the funny thing about the converter age, is that it brought back the antenna! Sure it’s an HD antenna but a lot of people can use their aerials again, and that’s sort of funny.
Robb, those are some very interesting points, but the broadband/bandwith issue is where all of this falls apart. The US simply lacks telecoms that provide services on the level of Europe and most parts of Asia. Without these companies evolving their thinking for their STUDIO partners, you can’t phase out physical copies anytime soon.
What you and David seemingly ignore and that could be the whole LA thing, is that there is a technology gap in this country. People can still afford a DVD or a BD, but not everyone can afford a smartphone or an Apple device.
If the studios really want to move to whatever replaces Ultraviolet next. They are going to have to realize that until this stuff is cheaper and more manageable for most of America, who are broke due to their wages not being livable (which is a point Robb made, I am just expanding upon), it’s not feasible to phase out physical copies in three years or even five or even in 10 years.
You could do it, but unless this country changes to make it where a middle class person can work a half-way decent job and live off of it. All of this is rather pie in the sky from people who aren’t living through this crap day after day.
Wow that is ridiculously cheap…might have to look into this plan.
ha, foamy, indeed.
(so…is blu-ray considered DVD in this instance? i don’t think anyone has clarified this so far…i don’t see blu-ray disappearing over the next few years, esp with home theatre systems supposedly poised to take the 4K leap in the the next year or so)
^ Dude yes, DVD and BD are considered the same thing here. It’s PHYSICAL vs DIGITAL.
JS, no strat meeting ever included the phrase, “well what about the people with out any money to spend,” not to make light of the situation, but the business isnt altruistic. There is some network exec somewhere who 25 years ago said wait, I know we are a broadcast network but why dont we charge a retrans fee. And someone said we cant, guess what.
The biggest thing about the model is we just removed the business line of DVDs. Thats a big thing. A really big thing. Its a revenue driver even now, but it wont be for long. We are already thinking about ways to disregard it. Now this was for a forward thinking company, but still.
A lot of people are betting on spectrum/broadband improvements, bc they see the need.
ok dude, thanks, that’s what i thought but wanted to be sure
HDTVs have finally dropped in price to the point that even I was able to buy one, but there’s no way I can afford cable or a cell phone. BIG difference between $350 for something you expect to last 5-15 years versus $50 per month.
Actually, Leah, getting your money is a big motive to flip to streaming. It can expand to the world market.
In the next 5 years, I’d expect NZ to be a day-n-date market with the US schedule… that is, if NZ allows it.
Not sure why you don’t have HBO already.
What part of your colon did that 300 million now number come from, Christian?
I don’t know if you are in this camp, but it sounds like the same thinking that cable will just disappear as a delivery medium. No one cares how they get things… just that they get them and can afford to get them. None of it is black and white.
Delivery systems are not content. We see this with digital projection. No one goes to the movies for digital projection… or pays more per ticket for it. But it will save studios Billions annually.
Well, technically there’s 311, 591, 917 Americans according to the 2011 Census. And I doubt if a majority or even third of the nation will be going physical-less media until the end of this decade and the tech catches up.
There are about 120 million television households, Christian.
“In the next 5 years, I’d expect NZ to be a day-n-date market with the US schedule… that is, if NZ allows it.
Not sure why you don’t have HBO already.”
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – NZ broadband sux ballz.
NZ$105 for 60GB/month.
yeah expensive, fucking highway robbers
we have cable and satellite tv (and some tv on demand) – a lot of HBO content is already spread across our cable channels along with other american non-network stuff and basic VOD about the same as DVD releases, but not very comprehensive and costly; instant streaming such as your netflix would probably cost two gold doubloons per month.
(foamy, telstra is a bit cheaper than freakin telecom, and faster too)
Fortunately, not my problem. 😉
Not saying I disagree, David, but I suspect the future will take a bit longer to get here than we hope or expect. This past week in Austin (for SXSW), I’ve stayed at an Extended Stay where the wifi is such that I’ve had trouble watching YouTube videos. And the picture quality of the “Luck” episode I watched on HBO Go left a lot to be desired. Had to go out and get a prepaid DataConnect modem because I had the need for more speed.
Also, I just checked out the rates, and iCloud storage is going to have to come down in terms of cost vs. storage size.
I have digitized most of the movies I have on DVD, and have filled up about a 1 TB harddrive. They’re not even in HD size. It cost me about $100 for the drive and about $300 for a 72 GB ipod-like Android player (and I can add another 64 GB micro SD card whenever I need more space for another $100).
That’s a bargain to watch what I want where I want when compared to iCloud. 50 GB of storage would cost $100 per year from Apple. To get to that 1 TB, it would cost me $2,000 a year, and doesn’t take into account the broadband cost.
If I’m really worried about losing the digitized files, I can buy another harddrive for a lot less than the iCloud.
Hmm, Christian throws out a speculative number… it’s from his colon. Shouldn’t that count as “hyperbole” too?
Mike’s point is a good one. The initial “free” space in the iCloud is ok for backing up email, music and photos but movies will rip through that free space and the price to upgrade gets progressively higher.
Are you from the US Department Of Rhetorical Enforcement, Story?
Are you being clever or do you really not feel comfortable surfing these not very complex issues of style and tone?
Did you think the industry released a statement about the end of DVD? Or that Christian’s specific figure – or mine in response – wasn’t meant to be literal?
So 2017 then, Joe?
What’s most interesting to me is that she was watching YouTube and you were watching HBOGo and that you could buy whatever card that is…
Would any of that have been true 2 years ago?
And 1080p HD movies are about 4GB each through iTunes.
So, the iCloud prices are really just a ruse to push you to buy the movies one more time. Any purchases through iTunes will be stored to the iCloud for free. So the way to save $2,000 a year is to buy your movies again – this time digitally through iTunes.
It looks like Apple is trying to be at the forefront of the next DVD-like explosion, where collectors bought all of their VHS library movies on DVD.
David – Just find it amusing when you attack others for using the same rhetorical tricks you yourself employ.
I’d be fine with that, Story, is the rhetorical devices you were comparing we’re comparable. Commenters here are wildly hyperbolic all true time, often in great ways. But facts are facts.
When Christian used 300 million and put it in someone else’s mouth, both things were demonstrably inaccurate. If he had simply stated that he didn’t think most people were not wireless, whether I agreed with him or not, I wouldn’t have called out his usage.
And by the way… I have no problem with you calling out my hyperbole. But you seem to be taking it oddly seriously.
She?
By the way: Still in Austin. Just spent the better part of a half hour trying to post that one word reply in a restaurant where the wifi allegedly was “good.” Gave up and walked over to a coffehouse where I am now. The future ain’t here yet.
“When Christian used 300 million and put it in someone else’s mouth”
No, just projected from the facts.
And all the above tech mess is why DVD’s ain’t going out of style in 2015. It’ll be a few more years before 120 million plus Americans are solely using iCloud and T1 storage, etc. for all their media. Where do I put my VHS tapes?
Joe, I think Dave read “wifi” as “wife.”
I did, Joe. Been off of the real computer all day. Electrical problems at home. Waiting for someone with rubber boots.
Guys,
ITunes in the cloud, in terms of storage is free. When you purchase anything, including movies, from iTunes, it’s stored on their servers. You get a license to the purchased material.
ICloud and ITunes in the Cloud are technically different.
ICloud for documents, emails, photos, etc. gets pricey.
I know the youngsters like to grab everything digitally but I can’t be the only one who loves to see their library on the bookshelf. Movies I hardly watch or are avaliable on Netflix, books from authors I love but am unlikely to read again. I dread not having access to the physical objects and have trouble imagining a day where they are not available.
Cory, that’s only if you’ve purchased all of your movies through iTunes in the first place. If you’ve digitized all of the movies you’ve bought on DVD, none of them count for free storage. Then you need to buy them again or pay for the storage.
It’ll eventually make sense once people aren’t buying dvds or physical media to start fresh with iTunes digital purchases, but there will be those library movies that you’ll have to buy again (for the third or fourth time).
For our kids movies, VHS > DVD. VHS is more durable, lasts longer. Maybe 1990’s DVDs were made of sterner stuff, but a 2012 DVD is unplayable after you sneeze near it.
well hcat, i thought saying (paraphrasing), ‘you’ll pry my blu-rays out of my cold, dead hand’ was a dead giveaway that i, like you, want my hard copies, my precious jewels all in a row, my collection. (and my VHS’s, which i still have a LOT of, slowly trying to replace with blu; but if they’re discontinued , which i don’t accept, i’m in denial — then as frank booth says, fuck that. a lot of people are weird and OCD and old-fashioned, and like to hoard actual stuff. is the brave new world of all-digital all-the-time really that neigh? i don’t buy it somehow, the world (and it IS the world market, not just the the US for whom blu-rays are produced) is not yet sophistimicated enough.
Mike,
I get what you’re saying. In theory, you don’t really need to repurchase anything if you’re happy with the DVD copies you have.
I was thinking the same thing of just repurchasing everything that I have on DVD but I ultimately decided against it because the DVDs are good enough as they are. My DVD collection is down to 60 movies. I’m not that lazy to not get up off the couch and pop in a disc. I mean, I still have no choice because of the fact that I have almost 300 Blu Rays. I’ll always need to get off the couch.
But, with what Apple has done, I can make sure that my physical library won’t get any bigger if I stop buying physical discs RIGHT NOW, plus going to the theatre and renting a lot more than just flat out purchasing.
I have no problem buying from iTunes from now on because I’m over the constant chase to try and match the theater experience in the home. Frankly, I think it’s impossible for the average person to even get there. There’s nothing like the theater experience and the equipment. So, why try and duplicate it in the home? I love movies but if I want top notch, I’ll just go to the theater. I’m good with iTunes 720p and 1080p files.
Because of the daily stuff of life, who has time to worry about picture quality on a movie you may like or love but don’t watch it but every 3 to 4 years anyway?
The size I have is manageable for the rest of my days.
Cory, I get it now. I didn’t realize that you weren’t going to replace the ones you have on DVD and Blu. I went ahead and digitized everything and stream them to the three Apple TVs in my house. Really, it’s great for tv shows I watch over and over again.
You’re probably smart to embrace the iTunes model now, as Apple has shown great success at taking over the digital distribution market. It probably won’t be three years, but we’ll all be there before you know it.
This whole thread reminds me of meetings we used to have at Kodak circa 1995, wherein the Old Kodak Guard (film people) would try to convince the New Guard (digital people) that there’s no WAY grandmas and mommies are ever going to use a digital camera, and since women are the “gatekeepers of memory” (legit KodakSpeake there), digital was doomed to never be adopted by anyone but technology geeks and the Japanese.
They were convinced that people would forever be loyal to the little yellow box, even as Fuji’s green ate more and more into our profits and independent polling showed consumers were adapting to digital faster than anticipated and Kodak was going to be left in the dust.
Point being: Arguments about how your granny won’t ever adapt to new technology are bullshit. People adapt. They adapted to electricity, and “horseless carriages,” and the telegraph, television and telephone. My husband’s 80-something grandmother not only uses the internet daily, she lives on freaking Farmville. My nearly 70YO uncle is on Facebook, watches movies on Netflix, and is on the internet probably more often than not, between his laptop and his Kindle Fire and his smartphone.
David is probably pretty spot on here, even if he’s exaggerating perhaps a smidge.
Let the cloud come. Right now I’m happy that I can rent DVDs/Blu-rays and video games (which will also move to the cloud eventually) and stream thousands of titles to my TV/PC with Blockbuster @Home. I think that 2020 may be too far off for “cloud life,” because it seems that it may be standing at the doorstep. Since I work for DISH, I’ve seen video technology and means of watching that video improve, so I can’t wait to see where they take us!
Cool learned something newthis week now I’m set for this week. Thanks!
This part of your article is incorrect:
Meanwhile, this process doesn’t put a greater burden on the already buggy Ultraviolet, as these films will be available through Vudu, WalMart’s streaming service, which unlike Ultraviolet is already hooked up to more than “300 Internet-connected devices,” many of which stream to your HD television.
This is the quietly undersold part of this deal with WalMart. The Vudu. The Ultraviolet group is trading, in part, technology that isn’t quite working right yet for Vudu – WalMart’s company, bought in 2010 – which works well.
You must sign up for an Ultraviolet account in order to access your disc to digital VUDU titles. It is firmly a part of the Ultraviolet ecosystem as written in the VUDU rules section of their website:
http://supports.vudu.com/questions/1171/Why+do+I+have+to+create+an+UltraViolet+account%3F
“Disc to Digital is an UltraViolet program backed by many of the world’s leading entertainment and technology companies and offered by Walmart. Creating a free UltraViolet account is a necessary step to initiate the Disc-to-Digital program. Once you create your UltraViolet account, any movies from participating studios that you purchase electronically on VUDU, including any past purchases, will be automatically registered within your UltraViolet cloud at no extra charge to you. You will also be able to redeem UltraViolet e-copies offered on selected physical DVD and Blu-ray discs offered by participating studios.”
I also ask what about Downloads? Wouldnt that be offered to the Collectors market instead of Discs in the Future? The studios are on record as saying they would rather you purchase instead of rent. Why would they remove the sell thru option??