20 Weeks: The Summer Box Office Guesses as of May 2
It occurs to me that this annual ritual is a bit of a suicide run. After all, I haven’t seen or seen marketing for many of these films. And the reality is, as always, that when you get into the big numbers, no one really knows until detail from here and abroad starts coming in. And even then, the end result tends to be elusive.
Here’s last summer’s first chart. I feel pretty good about all but 3 pieces of it. I way underestimated the two Marvel-made Marvel movies. And I way overestimated Super 8. Thor and Captain America outproduced my expectations domestically, but it was really the foreign that killed me. I also guessed at double the gross that Cowboys & Aliens managed, though I seem to remember being told, often, that I was way low on that film… so I don’t feel so bad about it.
And ironically, I was closest to the worldwide gross of The Hangover: Part II… within $1.5m. Sorry to be so far off, Todd.
This summer, there is a lot of big, muscular product, including a troika of superhero movies. I’m only looking at one billion dollar film… but I could easily be wrong on that count. There could well be three… or even four.
There are also plenty of smaller films that could break out much bigger simply by being crowd pleasers. Mamma Mia! did 2.5x my estimate internationally. So is Tom Cruise singing really exciting? Or is this a more muscular and international Hairspray? Ted smells like a sleeper… but we’ve seen this kind of humor draw a very narrow audience in the past. Will Neighborhood Watch turn out to be the quiet revisitation of Ghostbusters? And could the Twilight draw connect on Snow White & The Huntsman in a big way?
Time will tell…
I love that a movie about a old lady going to couple therapy with her husband would potentially earn so much money. You go Meryl!
Is Rock of Ages going to be that successful? It looks bad and not even worth an (il)legal download. I also don’t think Brave will be that successful but I’m hoping that you’re right.
I think you might be underestimating Dark Shadows, if only because of the Burton/Depp track record, and the extreme marketability of vampires these days. But it’s a hard one to predict. Very odd approach to a remake.
I guess you’ve turned around on THE AVENGERS. Weren’t you saying it wouldn’t hit a billion before?
Actually, pisher, it is Depp & Burton’s track record that brought me to this number. Thinking more Sleep Hollow than Charlie & The Chocolate Factory.
But who knows?
Yes, Think.
And my brain still says, “no.” But the international numbers, as well as the slot in the US and positive energy going in its direction say, “Good chance.”
BTW, I don’t do these as a group. I look at each film individually. So, in this case, Spiderman is where it is based on my best rough on it, regardless of how it ranks in the end. And as I felt compelled to bump up Avengers because of what we already know internationally, the ranking just fell as it did.
I don’t expect Dark Shadows to do Alice in Wonderland numbers (it’s PG-13 for one thing), but people the world over seem to love watching Depp play colorful eccentrics–and this is definitely one of those performances. Sleepy Hollow was not.
So I’d compare Sleepy Hollow more to something like The Tourist, where Depp is playing somebody who looks like –you know–Johnny Depp. As opposed to somebody who looks like Johnny Depp would look after you dropped some really bad acid. That’s the Depp everybody seems to want, and that’s the Depp we’re seeing in the Dark Shadows ads, so I think you may be lowballing. We’ll see.
BTW, there seems to a typo on your total gross for GI JOE. Should be 540m total, no? And with all those posters of men with guns, does JOE really belong in the Family Product section? Seems like it’s more of a second tier blockbuster.
And do you really think Avengers will top out at 990m. If they get that close, won’t they do everything possible to eke out the extra 10m?
And FWIW, I think you are high on Prometheus and low on MIB3 — I expect those numbers to be swapped.
I did not mean to imply in my earlier posts that there are any NON-eccentric Johnny Depp roles. It’s a matter of degree. The more over the top, the more bizarre, the more unapologetically flamboyant, the more people like it. Edward Scissorhands, Ed Wood–too quiet, too subtle (not for me, but for most people). Jack Sparrow was the breakthrough role. No subtlety there. His Mad Hatter is another case of a role that is completely out there–and I think his Barnabas Collins looks just as wild.
I don’t see how it doesn’t do WAY better than Sleepy Hollow. Because this time Depp is the monster–the weirdest creature onscreen. And that’s what people want from him.
I also think Prometheus @ $260 is on the high side, but sight unseen, I sincerely wish it would do that number, especially if it lives up to expectations. Maybe it can be this year’s Inception, even with The Bat flying around.
I want Prometheus to do that well, but suspect it will not. But Ive never been much for prognostication. I just want the movies to be good.
I’m a bit put off by Ridley Scott taking the discredited utterly non-scientific Van Daniken crap seriously in his recent interviews. It’s a baldfaced lie to say that science tells us we couldn’t have achieved our current level of civilization without help from aliens–not that this is a new idea. Nigel Kneale got there first with Quatermass and the Pit. But the first (and really only) great movie using this idea was 2001: A Space Odyssey.
This really isn’t so much an Alien prequel as a 2001 remake, and I think I’ll end up greatly preferring the original–in both cases. Still, it might be a good summer popcorn film, if Sir Ridley brought his A-game. How long has it been since he last did that?
OK, just to be sure I understand: The three numbers are
1. Expected worldwide gross
2. Expected domestic gross
3. Expected foreign gross
Reason I ask: Last year’s chart looks a bit different.
i’m impressed with the Dark Shadows posters –
very colorful – awesome design – already in transit shelters .
http://collider.com/dark-shadows-movie-posters/153758/
Prometheus could just as easily be dreadful as it is making our dreams come true as a cool science fiction epic. Ridley Scott’s last film Robin Hood was about as a dead a movie as I’ve seen – though I’ve been told he was a gun-for-hire on that one. Body of Lies, Gangster – both snores.
The other wild cards are Bourne Legacy and Snow White.
I sympathize with DP, putting the effort to make a prediction – all of us pointing out where we think he’s wrong, then all pointing out when he IS wrong, and not giving credit to where he’s right… having said that:
That’s My Boy is way to high. $70M tops. Sandler’s star is finally fading.
TED – also too high. I imagine the add campaign will spoil all the funniest bits.
Savages is going to do just under $100M – I hear its fantastic.
I’d say GI JOE look a little low, but I can’t tell which number is what. 190 sounds like it might be right, but 160 feels low. Which is it?
Dark Knight is king, as Batman beats all, always.
Dark Shadows totally will make 75 million tops. Totally more of a Sleepy Hollow/Sweeney Todd thing. But it’s PG-13 and a comedy, so maybe not?
There’s only 4 that seem a bit off:
Amazing Spidey has more of a 500m to 700m gross feel to it, than close to a billion. It is in 3D, which will probably knock that up a tad, but TDK-R is going to kill it’s gross world wide.
You may have nailed Ice Age 4, but that feels low. 850m seems more realistic given what happened with the last film internationally.
Dark Shadows is too low. It’s Burton, it’s Deep, and that has to be worth at least 400 to 500m with most of that coming abroad. Watch it get to like 315m, but Deep gets those international people to see him. This should not change with Dark Shadows.
Snow White and the Huntsman has that break out thing around it. This will probably be the most off you are all Summer.
Those aside, Abe Lincoln: VH could easily break out with one killer trailer. While it’s time for Wes Anderson to have a break out it and Moonrise Kingdom could be this years Midnight in Paris.
weren’t the Dark Knight numbers very heavy on the domestic side? putting international that much higher than domestic for this years installment seems generous.
Dark Knight Rises also benefits from the release schedule. Everything got the fuck out of its way for the five weeks after it drops, so it’s got a clear path to steamroll down, I think it could wind up closing in on 90-95% of the Dark Knight domestic gross.
While itās time for Wes Anderson to have a break out it and Moonrise Kingdom could be this years Midnight in Paris.
That’s the sweetest thing you’ve said in months, JS.
Bless you, son.
“Dark Knight Rises also benefits from the release schedule. Everything got the fuck out of its way for the five weeks after it drops, so itās got a clear path to steamroll down,”
Movielocke, I think you’re forgetting that both Total Recall and the new Bourne opens on August 3rd, just two weeks later. Even Neighborhood Watch opens the very next week, so its not as clear a path as you say it is.
And by the way, who’s the assholes that scheduled Recall and Bourne to open on the same day? Did they learn nothing from the clusterfuck of family films of November 2011?
Bourne feels high. I could see Total Recall missing altogether.
Chernobyl Diaries feels like its going to get lost with a questionable release date. So much material out there at the same time vying for the exact same demographic.
Snow White is gonna do 120 in its first weekend, GUARANTEED.
K-STEW plus the ENTIRE Hunger Games fanbase,
Interesting that you put HOPE SPRINGS as a “middle movie” rather than in the “adults” category. Would dance a jig if it does that well.
OTOH, $300 WW for NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH? What do you know that we don’t?
I think the SHADOWS number is right, but as I’ve said many times, this is gonna skew old, and it’ll get there via the baby-boomers. Depp/Burton only gets them so far with the kids, plus the fang-in-cheek approach will turn off the Twihards, who take that shit v-e-r-y s-e-r-i-o-u-s-l-y. (I once told one of them that it should end with Edward and Jacob going off together and into a spin-off film, BROKEBACK MONSTERS. She almost ripped my face off.) I’ll say it again: look at the numbers for RED, and that’s what DS will do.
Cadavra’s DARK SHADOWS IS RED REDUX theory that he’s posted 100 times is absolutely nonsensical. It’s like thinking CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY was a hit because it played exclusively to 45-60-year-olds who grew up with the Wilder movie.
I just see Total Recall edging out Bourne right now, and I don’t see Bourne being near that big. Jeremy Renner wasn’t great in MI4 and I haven’t heard much praise for his Hawkeye role either.
Meryl Streep is the most bankable actress in Hollywood if she can get Hope Springs to $100 million.
Renner can do intense. He can do snark. I havent seen proof of anything else.
Hawkeye is a non character in Avengers. Hes there to give Scarlet Johansen a tether. Hes like Steve Trevor to her Wonder Woman. She needs someone to save and he conveniently exists to serve that purpose.
Anghus – you doing any work on IM3?
In David Poland’s world every movie makes money, there is no fails.
But this is not the real world.
A lot of these movies will fail.
Universal will be happy if Battleship make 400 million worldwide.
Sony will be happy with 600 million for Spider-man.
Fox will be happy with 400 million for Prometheus.
New Line will be happy with 200 million for Rock of Ages (I don’t know if it’ll do 100 million).
No. They brought in almost every position i was qualified for from l.a. im shooting a feature later this summer which meant i probably would have caused one hell of a clusterfuck, but i think i would been willing to endure it to work on iron man in any capacity.
It’s funny, AJ… the last couple of summers, I looked at the numbers I was projecting and was shocked not to see any complete bombs.
But the truth is, most of them – on the wide-release level – have been cleared out during the summer. It’s more about the cost vs the returns.
Last summer, only two major studio wide releases grossed under $20m. The Glee concert movie and Fright Night. Only two more did under $30m. Monte Carlo and Winnie The Pooh.
In summer 2010, 6 domestic wide releases grossed under $30m. (Macgruber, Jonah Hex, Splice, Lottery Ticket, Ramona and Beezus, and Nanny McPhee Returns.)
Even a movie like Green Lantern, which bombed last summer, grossed $220m doing so.
Even Piranha 3DD, which I would suspect as being a potential car wreck domestically, did shockingly well overseas the last time.
If New Line does $200m with Rock of Ages worldwide, it will lose money (aka “fail”). Same with Battleship at $400m. So they won’t be happy… at all.
And Fox won’t be happy with $400m for Prometheus. (Fail.)
Some people say that Sony is Spider-paranoid and $600m will make the film profitable, so I guess they could be okay with that… but I doubt it. Not in a market with $150m domestic openings for The Hunger Games and The Avengers and Battleship set to do $200m foreign in less than a month.
18 movies did $100m domestic last summer and/or over $200m worldwide. I’m projecting the same for this summer.
Not sure how that’s so pie in the sky… even if a couple of these end up failing much more painfully.
Then again, last year I took the most crap for being too high on Apes and too low on Cowboys… and I was high on Cowboys and low on Apes. Go figure.
Men in Black is too high. The whole project just feels so tired and the public seems to be completely indifferent to it. 160m feels right.
Prometheus will have really have to be something special to do that number domestically. True scifi is a tougher sell than most realize and unless your film really delivers like an Inception or District 9 then a lot fo time these projects underwhelm financially.
I also see Magic Mike being a non-starter with general audiences. No guy outside of hardcore Soderberg fans/film buffs are going to initiate a night out to see a film about a male stripper. “Boogie Nights” was critically acclaimed and became an instant classic for many on video, but only made 25m in theaters. People feel uncomfortable seeing overtly sexual films like this in the theaters.
I agree with those who have said that “Snow White” could be a much bigger hit than Poland is predicting.
I thought the story with Robin Hood was that the script they had portrayed Hood as the villain, the Sheriff as the hero, it sounded totally amazing…and then Sir Ridley came on board. He said no one wanted to see such rubbish so he gave us the classic boring same-old, same-old, which no one wanted to see after all.
…which still taints my ability to see Prometheus as anything truly amazing if the same twit is in charge.
SamLowry,
You’re correct about the script was changed a lot, but that wasn’t Ridley. That was Universal. The more expensive the movie got, the more they wanted it to feel like Gladiator.
Im not sure who the audience for Magic Mike is. My wife saw the trailer and thought it looked awful. I dont see guys lining up to see it and i heard my wife and her friends saying they thought it looked “gross”.
Maybe itll play to a younger Step Up kind of crowd. With the year Tatum is having it feels almost dumb to discount it, but it feels like a film that will struggle to find an audience.
Either of the previous concepts for Scott’s Robin Hood would have been better than the same tired story we got.
Movies that take it in the shorts: Ted, Marigold Hotel, GI Joe. The later two could be somewhat relative.
I’m never sure how/where Fox is going to put their money. I could see them showing way more love to Total Recall since it’s the known property but I’m betting Abie, The Vampire Slayer is 10x the movie but they’ll let it run on its own like ARod keeping his freckin’ prestine bat on his shoulder on a 2-0 pitch with a hit & run on.
Holy crap, was Robin Hood bad! There’s timelessness naturally in the story but I got the sense at times they were trying to make all the attitudes too contemporary. Plus, it was just boring. Didn’t care what was going to happen next or to whom. I even thought by the trailer it looked like might not be that great but it was a total dud.
Not betting against MiB3 but I could see that one being a bit of a snooze bo-wise.
I could see the Gi Joe & Expend sequels being a couple of fizzes but not sure who’s in them. They could possibly have legs if they’re any good. I think people were disappointed in the quality of both originals. Even though they’ll be long gone out of the theaters, if Avengers and Spidey and Prometheus are really solid quality wise, people will still come out for GI Joe and Expendables, if people have felt jacked, no matter what the ad campaign or early, people will wait ’em out.
Did I make this up or was it reported at one point that Crowe would be playing both the sheriff and Robin Hood in that film?
Rumor had it, briefly, Chris. From the Guardian.
The marketing for Magic Mike is all sorts of wrong. For months, the main buzz for the film has been the potential male nudity, especially in the gay community. And yet somehow, they cooked up a trailer that makes it look like the most wooden (not the good kind) and boring STRAIGHT rom com ever.
David,
I think Rock of Ages is a 50 million picture (maybe a little more). It’s from New Line, low budget brand from Warner, then 200 million worldwide is great.
Sci Fi movies like Prometheus rarely makes big money. I don’t know the budget, but I don’t think it’s more than 150 million, then 400 million is good.
Battleship is in the end of its run overseas (just a few more markets to go). It is already a fail. It’ll do a little more than 200 million overseas. Universal will loose big money with it (more than 100 million). And that is good. Enough with stupid movies with explosions.
A couple thoughts…
I think you are right on with Dark Shadows and Rock of Ages. I would be surprised if Rock does any less than Hairspray. With the exception of Sandler, there seems to be little “fun comedic” summer fare in June and most of July. Plus, Cruise is coming off a pretty big hit.
I’m with AJ on Prometheus. Hell, I wanna see it too, but I have a tough time believing that it will stretch much past the male sci-fi action audience. If it is PG-13 then, I do think that parents will be cautious to send there young kids to an Alien whatever. Fox should be happy with a domestic $150. Of course, unless Scott produced something like Inception(a mix of smart sci fi and action) then maybe it could hit 200.
It’s surprising how little buzz there is for Battleship or MIB3. I thought that both had good trailers, but there is such a been there before mood with them. Avengers could have better legs than expected.
I would hate to limit Pixar, but I think we are looking at Cars 2 domestic gross at just under 200 million. It is sandwiched between Dreamworks and Fox’s animated sequels. If it is not too violent, I can see many more boys of all ages spending their fourth of July weekend with Spidey instead of Brave.
And while the boys are at Spidey….I am guess many girls will be checking out the Katey Perry 3D concert movie, absent on your list. I am not saying that it will be 100 million blockbuster, but it will be closer to Hannah Montana concert than GLEE. Did Perry get moved out of summer?
I also have a hard time believing that Snow White will do less than half of Prometheus.
It seems like quite a crowded summer. If you don’t open big, you will quickly lose screens and get bumped to those smaller 80 seat screens.
So is it that we are betting against the #1 grossing guy who can open anything on the planet, Will Smith, and saying that MiB3 will be a dud? I think $220m is a good ballpark.
I, apparently am the only one who likes the Magic Mike trailer. Huh.
I don’t generally prognosticate, but I think SNOW WHITE could be huge.
They’d be disappointed if they got $400 million for Prometheus?
Is it not rated R?
Battleship has been out for 3Ā½ weeks in most foreign markets by now, and according to Boxofficemojo the total international take to date is 170m.
Unless it makes an absolute killing in the few remaining key markets (ie. China), it will be very lucky to get to a 250m international gross. In other words the 480m foreign gross prediction above seems _wildly_ optimistic.
Hasn’t Ridley hedged on the rating a bit, essentially saying that he has to stay true to the film and its content while also acknowledging that it’s a business and the studio wants the widest possible audience. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s PG-13, but the trailers released so far hint at an R-rated movie.
DP, do you feel that Marketing/Advertising on a movie like Avengers is around $100M or would it be more or less than that? If we guestimate that the budget is around $200-250M, does that mean Disney is all in for about $350M? What would be an estimated break-even threshold (looking at BO only) – $600M?
Oh no way they’d break even at 600M. With box office alone, I’d bet we’re talking 750-800M to break even.
But you can’t consider box office alone for a film like this. It won’t do Batman merchandising (or Batman box office), but that really is where the money is here. All those plastic shields and hammers and action figures.
Jason (and I know you weren’t talking to me) I did some Google searching and found that the worldwide marketing budget for John Carter was about $120 million. It has to be more for The Avengers.
I’d guess total studio investment (not counting previous films in the series) is around 400M, including release expenses.
No less than 350M.
I don’t think Madagascar or Ice Age will be much of a problem for Brave. Everybody knows there’s no substitute for Pixar (when they’re not doing Cars movies). Ice Age opens three weeks later. And IMO, we’ll see declines for both franchises this time.
As to the boys not going–a whole lot of them went to Hunger Games. Obviously this isn’t aimed specifically at teens, and it’s not based on a bestselling novel, but it’s family friendly, and has the best brandname out there.
I don’t think it’s going to be one of Pixar’s alltime best, but it’ll open well, and hold better.
I think the MAGIC MIKE trailer is great and, at least to me, it looks like a great date movie.
I think it’s important to note that the new Sandler is Rated-R, which hasn’t been the case with any of his leading Happy Madison roles other than FUNNY PEOPLE. Despite their crude humor, I would argue most of the Sandler films of the past 10 years are kind of family movies, whereas this new one seems to be aiming at the Apatow audience. I don’t think it can be counted on to perform the same as most of his recent movies. I would switch that and THE DICTATOR, personally.
I think David’s also probably low on EXPENDABLES 2 by a bit. The movie is more star packed and, from the trailer released today, looks much bigger and extravagant. It’s also, along with SAVAGES, one of the only non scifi/fantasy/superhero action films of the entire summer.
Rated R or not, the new Sandler movie looks like pretty much all the other PG-13 Sandler movies. It’s just a little filthier/has some F-bombs. Otherwise nothing about it looked Apatow-ish to me. I do agree, though, that the Magic Mike trailer is great. Looks entertaining.
Count another among those who think Snow White will far exceed this prediction. It feels like real momentum is growing and I could see really big international numbers for this one.
Prometheus will be an interesting test. Such great reaction to the materials, such anticipation, but I wonder if it plays too heavy for the huge bulk crowds.
I think DP is way low on:
-Dark Shadows, because $75 million seems like more of a minimum than anything. I can’t imagine it does less than that (though I guess it’s possible), and if audiences like it (which is not so unusual for Depp/Burton movies even if they’re a bit odd), I could see it doing 100+. Won’t be a Charlie/Alice-style blockbuster since it’s not a family movie, but I think a lot of women will go see it, plus probably some horror fans. It’ll be an interesting test, as it’s Burton’s first mainstream-but-not-family movie in awhile (Sweeney Todd was never going to do 100+, although I was kind of surprised it “only” did 50something, even though that’s a reasonable gross for a macabre musical).
-The Dictator. I think it’ll do better than Bruno’s 60; maybe not way better, but closer to 75 or 80.
-What to Expect When You’re Expecting. Again, 45 feels like the floor for this movie, the New Year’s Eve version of the gross. But with Diaz and Lopez, I feel like we could get the What Happens in Vegas/Monster in Law/He’s Just Not That Into You version with 75+.
-Snow White. Can see this doing 150.
I think DP is high on:
-Prometheus. 260 would be MASSIVE for an Alien redux (especially one without the famous monsters on screen or in the title). Isn’t it sort of the Super 8 of this summer, albeit with an adult/horror angle instead of a Spielberg/family angle? I’m thinking more like half that.
-Bourne Legacy. I think pre-release polling shows interest probably because a lot of people just see the title and may not realize Damon isn’t in it (especially if they haven’t seen the trailer). I can’t imagine a fourth Bourne without Bourne is going to make more than two thirds of the Damon-starring trilogy. Thinking this could be a big miss of the summer, and even the hit version doesn’t do over 150, if that.
-Ted. Though it could change, I don’t see a Wahlberg teddy bear buddy comedy grossing more than the Wahlberg/Ferrell team-up from 2010.
-Amazing Spider-Man… although I don’t know, Spider-Man is huge, and it’s assured over 200. 285 just feels high for a movie that doesn’t seem to offer a ton that’s new.
Most of the rest seem spot-on to me. I think Rock of Ages could do a bit higher than 120, actually, but that number makes sense.
Oh, and low on Snow White, too, if only a little; I can see it getting past the 150 range.
In a word “wow”.
From boxoffice.com: Thursday Update: Disney reports that The Avengers has reached $281.1 million internationally after grabbing $20.6 million on Wednesday.
In just 8 days of release, The Avengers has already passed the total international box office cume for Captain America ($192M), Iron Man ($267M) and Thor ($268M).
Thanks for the link, Ray!
I think Dark Shadows could be the same kind of counter-programming hit Mamma Mia was against The Dark Knight. If they had Meryl Streep in the cast, I’d say it was a sure thing. š
Person Pretending To Be Lex: No, it’s your comparison that’s nonsensical. WILLIE WONKA has been a family perennial for at least three generations, on TV and DVD. Plus it was based on a classic children’s book, spawned two hit songs that still pop up in commercials, put “oompa loompa” into the vernacular as an insult to a short person (see “The Blind Side”), and oh yes–they actually make Wonka candy! A remake top-lined by Depp was a no-brainer.
DARK SHADOWS, on the other hand, has not been telecast in decades, the two prior feature films are not on DVD and haven’t been shown on cable in decades, if ever, save one screening of HOUSE on TCM (in an old pan-and-scan master) on a night honoring Dick Smith. And while the series itself is on DVD, the casually interested viewer is not going to invest the kind of time and money needed to get a grasp on the thing.
True story: Back in 2004, when the WB was shooting a pilot for a reboot, I was on a plane back from Showest when the visual effects guy sitting behind me was loudly bitching about his new gig: “I worked on both SPIDER-MANS, for fuck’s sake, and now they got me on some piece of shit called DARK SHADOWS! What the fuck is DARK SHADOWS, anyway?” I was tempted to turn around and say, “It’s the most popular horror TV series in history, you arrogant fucking imbecile!” but thought better of it. Nonetheless, here’s a guy in at least his 30s, in the industry, and he has absolutely no clue. That enough proof for ya? If not, trundle on down to the Grove and start asking kids if they know what DARK SHADOWS is based on. If even 1 in 10 says, “Some old TV show,” I’d be genuinely staggered.
I’ve been in the business for almost four decades, most of it at the “retail” end, and I’d like to think I have a pretty good grasp of the way things work. Bottom line: DARK SHADOWS will skew old. Period. End of story. That’s all, folks. -30-.
Pisher – I don’t think Mamma Mia was counter programming in the end. It had its own very significant audience.
Also, Avengers ain’t Dark Knight.
I agree on Avengers – Wow! After this weekend, it could be at $500M worldwide. Could maybe give Batman a run for summers biggest earner (WW). I was thinking an opening in the $130s, but everything is looking like around $150M. Wonder if it surpasses Hunger Games’ opening?
Cadavra: “DARK SHADOWS, on the other hand, has not been telecast in decades”
Not entirely true (if more or less true in sentiment) – as Syfy (Or Sci-Fi at the time) ran the re-runs for many years during the day.
JKill – “Itās also, along with SAVAGES, one of the only non scifi/fantasy/superhero action films of the entire summer.”
Bourne Legacy?
Storymark,
Oh yeah. I guess I could still distinguish that, in that BOURNE is a very modern series in terms of its style/vibe/presentation, whereas EXPENDABLES and SAVAGES, more or less, represent types of movies that aren’t made very often anymore (excessive 80s shoot-em up styled action and all-star R-rated crime thriller, respectively). But point taken, although the trailer for LEGACY implies some kind of strength serum that may tilt the series in a more fantastical direction.
Storymark: Though I could be a bit off, I recall Sci-Fi stopped running it in the 90s, unless they brought it back for a one-time Thanksgiving Day marathon or something. I know for a fact that it was off the air by 2000, because we were buying time on Sci-Fi for GODZILLA 2000, and it was not on the sked then.
Cadavra, you’re also assuming that ANYONE who wants to see Dark Shadows will want to see it because they know the show, therefore will be on the older side. What about the people who have no clue what the show is, but sure as fuck know what a Johnny Depp and a Tim Burton and vampires are? Are they not going to go because they’ll intuit that it’s based on a show they haven’t seen?
I find it strange to think that The Hunger Games will eventually outgross all but one of the summer blockbusters, according to DP’s charts.
What does that say about these summer movies? I mean, outside of TDKR, the gottabe blockbusters are all variations of aliens/monsters terrorize people. I’m all for a good “alien/monster terrorizing people movie,” but I suspect a good number of the second-tier, family, and middle movies will do a lot better than predicted here.
Jesse, I never said young people won’t go; I said they won’t go in the numbers Warners is expecting. Most of them will be too busy with AVENGERS, BATTLESHIP, MIB3 and to a lesser extent DICTATOR to bother with some lame-ass vampire flick that takes place like a zillion years ago and is full of old people making dumb jokes about disco. The operative word in my statement is “skew.”