Friday Estimates by Sabertooth Klady
it’s a bit of a fool’s errand to put the Ice Age 4 opening into perspective based on Friday’s number. It’s about average, domestically, for the series, not scaling the highest level of the series, the $68m March opening of Ice Age 2 in 2006, but still slightly better than the original. Think is, best or worst opening, this very successful series has never cracked $200m domestic. Ever. Yet Ice Age 3 is the #4 all-time biggest animated grosser worldwide.
Why did Ice Age 2 grow by $250m from the original internationally alone… and Ice Age 3 another $230m? Hard to say. Many sequels grow more overseas than at home. But these numbers are pretty exceptional. Ice Age 3’s 77.8% of total gross coming from international is the highest percentage of any film grossing over $775m worldwide.
Fox reported a $148m international 5-day opening last time out. This time, the film’s opening dates are scattered anywhere between 10 days and 3 days in the reporting of a $240m number for international, making this the third, second, and in some territories first weekend. There is one early outlier – the only release before June – and that’s Cyprus, where the film opened in April. And on the other hand, the film won’t open until next week or the week after in a bunch of markets (like Ireland, India, South Korea) and the outlier there is Italy, where the movie opens in September.
it doesn’t look like this one will be the top mastodon in the series, but $500m – $600m worldwide is realistic, making it 2nd best and another big success for Fox (especially International).
Speaking of Fox, Prometheus is lingering just under $300m worldwide, which is a bit of a disappointment. There are a handful of big markets set to open throughout August, so the number could go as high as “near $400m,” but that’s about the cap. Is that enough for the sequels to go forward? That’s the $60,000 question. I would bet on “yes,” just because of how franchises now play out financially. But we shall see…
The Amazing Spider-Man hit $400m worldwide on Thursday, according to Sony. It should get to $200m domestic by Monday or Tuesday and the worldwide cume should be over $475 by Sunday. It will pass Madagascar 3, which, by the way, has a long way to go internationally. The story of that film is over in the US – biggest of the trio – but there is still a chance of the film being the biggest of the 3 worldwide as well. (Yes… original not in 3D… inflation… yadda yadda yadda)
Ted and Magic Mike continue to be great stories this summer. Mike will be Soderbergh’s sixth $100m domestic movie – 3 Ocean’s, Brockovich, Traffic – and the first without Pitt, Clooney, and/or a Best Picture nomination. For me, that makes it his most impressive achievement and with it, Warner Bros best magic trick of the year. This is the 300 of disconcerted male stripper movies.
And Ted is just an out and out smash. The film will pass Bridesmaids domestically next weekend and should easily crack $200m and take down Wedding Crashers as the #4 all-time R-rated comedy. It has an outside shot of catching Beverly Hills Cop at $235m. But I suspect that both Hangover movies are out of range. Still… pretty amazing… especially since it is playing as an even harder R than the Hangover films, almost exclusively on language and ideas. This will likely be Universal’s fourth $300m worldwide grosser this year and its third of the summer. (Ted is just beginning its international roll-out. $100m should be no problem.) The problem is the price of some of the films.
Like the stupid whining about ticket sales, there is an audience, studios are finding them, and the “problem” on the business side is not audience disinterest or distraction, but, simply, extravagant, uncontrolled spending. There have been twenty-five wide releases this summer… and ten of them are at or heading quickly to $100m domestic. Eight, maybe nine are at or on their way to $300m worldwide.
I know it’s easier to scream about people staying away from the movies – people over 30 have increasingly done so since VHS and teen boys are still going in droves, thanks – but the more complex reality makes a less pretty headline. Work harder, journalists.
They’re re-releasing COCKTAIL this weekend??? Who new?
And wow, just when you thought De Niro had hit rock bottom, along comes RED LIGHTS.
The ICE AGE movie’s subtitle is CONTINENTAL DRIFT (not CONTINENTAL SHIFT).
I saw BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD last night and good God, what an accomplishment. I wasn’t as bowled over emotionally as I thought I might be, but it’s just an incredible movie. In a fair world, Behn Zeitlin would get a best director director Oscar because of what he pulls off. The performances, the set design, the location work….it’s simply astonishing. I haven’t seen a small film with this much of an epic feel since early Herzog.
So ice age is probably gonna make maybe 160-175 here. Lets just see if the series can continue to be the overseas juggernaut that it has been
Yeah, Joshua… Len is a bit of a joker sometimes.
Also saw Beasts. I was as impressed as Don by the actual production and performances, but was also pretty turned off by the substance of the story. As tough and persevering as Hushpuppy is, and as touching as some of the scenes between her and her father were, the mythologizing of a bunch of irresponsible drunks through the eyes of a child too young to know better left a pretty bitter taste in my mouth. Not saying Zeitlein should’ve strained to move beyond Hushpuppy’s perspective – not sure that movie would’ve been better – but as it is, it feels like a bit of a cop out.
At this point do audiences still want a PROMETHEUS sequel? I knows it’s just anecdotal evidence but I don’t know a single person who much liked the first film at all. The consensus seems to be that it was just silly.
I’d be worried of a Tomb Raider 2 situation.
Others may have mentioned it, but Fox did something brilliant worldwide for Ice Age by plugging in famous voices local to most of the countries it plays in – Vincent Cassel, for instance, fills in for Denis Leary in France, which may explain at least partially why it does as well as it does as an international entity.
Count me in the camp of those who was disappointed with Prometheus. But the world created was so inviting that I would show up for a sequel.
If they keep the costs down, get a script that delivers on mythology,action and scares, and also answer some good damn questions, then people will show up. Don’t expect blockbuster, but a reasonable ROI should be good enough.
i thought Prometheus was wonderfully ridiculous and as smart as a box of hammers.
And yet, i’d probably go see a sequel as the idea of Noomi Rapace and Fassbender travelling to the ends of the universe to try and find the engineer homeworld.
Unlike you guys, I thought Prometheus was genuinely intelligent and would welcome a sequel with open arms. The potential premise of the sequel is so tantalising I’d bet even those who were disappointed would give the sequel a look.
It’ll open in Japan, Spain, Italy and Germany about a month and a half from now. Would it be realistic to expect at least another 50 million from those territories? ERCBoxoffice said it is possible it would not pass the censors in China, but if it did, the overseas total could be even higher.
there had BETTER be a sequel to Prometheus.
I would think Fox was looking for at least $500M on Prometheus, especially for a sequel. The problem with a smaller movie and some scares probably means Scott wouldn’t be involved. And the you have a potential Alien 3 on your hands.
While i thought ‘Prometheus’ was disappointing, I liked the sci-fi being mined and was excited for a sequel announcement. It felt like campy 50’s americana sci fi like lost in space or forbidden planet — and while this may have been difficult for an audience to take when weighed against the sci fi that’s formed the dominant aesthetic since alien (really self-serious and at least partially gritty– save for the cartoony verhoeven types)I think the genre signifiers Prometheus used could be more finely tuned for a sequel and maybe Ridley could take some note sfrom the critics. That seems to be a popular consensus from friends of mine (if we’re speaking anecdotally anyway)– Prometheus wasn’t that great, but a sequel would be more than welcome; maybe get James Cameron to direct the sequel đ
Hey…the ALIEN 3 director’s cut is damn good. Alien 4 on the other hand…
“Unlike you guys, I thought Prometheus was genuinely intelligent”
May i present the counter argument:
http://youtu.be/-x1YuvUQFJ0
Am I the only one who’s not looking forward to 3 or 5 or 7 more Avatars? I know Cameron is devoting the rest of his middle age to the sequels..but seriously..after seeing the first one in theaters, on Blu Ray and cable, I’m over it. Done with the blue people.
“May i present the counter argument:”
The infamous video from illiterate people who didn’t bother to think about the film!
May I present my counter arguments?
http://www.chud.com/100388/stealing-fire-in-praise-of-prometheus/
http://reflectionsonfilmandtelevision.blogspot.com.br/2012/06/cult-movie-review-prometheus-2012.html
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/what-is-going-on-in-prometheus-a-universe-of-questions-answers-and-theories/
And mine: http://mulhollandcinelog.wordpress.com/2012/06/17/prometheus-ridley-scott2012/ and http://mulhollandcinelog.wordpress.com/2012/06/23/post-scriptum-2/
Sorry for getting a bit out of topic, David.
I dunno, Smith. I liked the irresponsible drunks, etc. It’s a modern day fable. Kids in fables, parables, fairy tales etc. are notoriously treated poorly. I mean, Little Red Riding Hood is sent off into the woods alone, Hansel and Gretel….everything. BEASTS is not *real* life and I’m kind of surprised by naysayers about the film calling BS on it’s content. Just because it’s got a documentary feel and that gritty/grainy look…it’s not a doc. Also– Zeitlins parents are folklorists. Learning that helped me understand the film a bit better as well.
Glamour, i thought Avatar was pretty blah. It was like a theme park ride. I didn’t mind watching it for the spectacle. But i agreed with every obvious criticism. It was highly derivative, and kind of dumb.
It was Fern Gully meets Dances with Wolves. The acting was so hammy it could have been served with eggs. To me there’s no difference between James Cameron and Michael Bay. They both make lowest common denominator blockbusters.
To me, there’s no difference between Transformers and Avatar. Digital eye candy. The fact that Avatar got a best picture nomination blows my fucking mind. The visuals were amazing. Apparently groundbreaking computer generated characters were enough for a Best Picture nom.
To be fair, i never got Cameron. Terminator and Terminator 2 are really good sci-fi action films. Every other film he’s made falls into the ‘well polished fluff’ category.
What anghus stated above, right the fuck on, and are we going to discuss Prometheus again? Real stupid movie, but we should get a sequel. Why? IT COULD BE AN EVEN STUPIDER MOIVE, THAT WOULD FEATURES HALF-NAKED GOD LIKE MEN! It would be like Magic Mike but in space, with a constantly “aroused but confused as to why, Elizabeth Shaw!
JS, you mean right the fuck on except for the part where he says he would probably go see the sequel???
Prometheus works on so many levels…maybe not so well on the summer blockbuster level, but I’m okay with that. And I’d be willing to see where the rabbit hole goes.
Get rid of Lindelof and maybe the sequel might turn out pretty good.
“It would be like Magic Mike but in space, with a constantly âaroused but confused as to why, Elizabeth Shaw!”
Now that’s a summer blockbuster I would see.
I’d love a Prometheus sequel. I hope it happens.
Epimetheus?
“Not saying Zeitlein shouldâve strained to move beyond Hushpuppyâs perspective â not sure that movie wouldâve been better â but as it is, it feels like a bit of a cop out.”
I think breaching Hushpuppy’s point of view to editorialize about the culture that raised her would have been the real cop out.
I’d go if my beloved Noomi was in her underwear again.
Yes. I would like to subscribe to your newsletter, cadavra.
Well, if I ever start one, you’ll be the first on the list! đ
Considering that Beasts sparked a discussion of magical realism among the tastemakers, I find it interesting that a list presented here clearly states that a movie doesn’t qualify if the “magic” can be explained…yet the second movie on their “Runners-up” list contains industrial-strength drug use. Others can be knocked off the list because the cause is a device, whether a memory-erasing rig, a special remote control or a magical mask.
Oddly enough, the one film on a few lists that isn’t explained by a gadget, drugs, daydreams or psychosis is Scott Pilgrim. Life simply is a video game.
BEASTS OF SOUTHERN WILD MEGA SPOILER TO FOLLOW.
Reviving this deadish thread because BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD is discussed at length here, and I think maybe I’m an idiot.
Again, THIS IS A SPOILER: SPOILER SPOILER SPOILER:
Can someone explain their take on the LAST SHOT? We see Hushpuppy and her ragtag crew of alcoholics triumphantly returning to “the Bathtub.” But water is closing in on them from both sides, and I would SWEAR Hushpuppy’s narration is something about “…they’ll tell the story of a girl named Hushpuppy who died in the Bathtub.” Died. As water is closing in from both sides.
Is the movie ending with all of them dying? Or did I totally mishear? All the water is coming right at them, so that seems to make sense– they have their triumph, she bids her dad farewell, they’ve stubbornly gone back to the Bathtub, we’re basking in their lives… But they die anyway like 5 minutes later?
Or did I mishear that crucial line? Also I have NO IDEA what a LEVEE does, so maybe that was just the bayou filling back up, but to my dumb ass it looked like the final shot was depicting them about to drown to death.
Lex, I don’t remember her saying “died in the bathtub,” though I mean, in a general sense, I’m not sure what they’re returning to. Or why I’m supposed to swell with emotion when that happens. But I generally felt like something of a grinch by the end of the movie, given how little it moved me. I did notice the water coming at them, but I was so divorced from the story, such as it was, of the movie by that point that I didn’t really think much about it one way or the other. So I didn’t interpret it as them dying imminently, but maybe others have more specific thoughts; would love to hear them.
Also, would love to hear what you thought of the movie in general.
BEASTS thoughts:
Went in with a semi-chip on shoulder about it, not helped by this weird feeling of watching it in an audience of exclusively white, privileged LA hipsters… For the first 15, 20 minutes, had kind of a WTF is this? feeling of it being a DGG/Malick wannabe, and it seemed like the dad was dying or disappearing every four minutes…
But slowly got really sucked into it, loved the cinematography, but the main thing that really started bringing it together was Dwight Henry’s AWESOME performance, which kind of sneaks up on you– for the first half he drifts in and out and seems like kind of an asshole, but somewhere around the time the flood hits, was way into it.
That said, that ‘special effect’ when they BLOW THE LEVEE or whatever the FUCK they do with those explosives and plastic alligator, that was so awkwardly cut to mask the low budget that I had literally no idea what even happened.
Was thus surprised what a wallop it started to pack around the time they get to the rescue shelter, despite how frustrating the actions of the characters might be… And my favorite stretch, bar none, was that surreal, swoony setpieces on the floating brothel; It’s always a winner in movies where they’re in some seedy nightspot playing OLD STANDARDS or BIG BAND JAZZ and it’s all woozy and otherworldly and RED like that… Around that bit I was thinking I’d wished I had been more gung-ho from the jump, because I was riveted, loved the final scenes with the dad, even the WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE moment near the end…
But… but… but… for all the tears and emotion, 2 days later I don’t really remember the specifics that strongly. It’s kind of a fast-fader in my memory, like most Oscary/indie “prestige” type discoveries… As good as it was, I know I’ll be watching Savages on Cinemax for the next two decades, and this’ll get exactly zero replay action. And again, getting back to my spoiler, my confusion over the very last shot, which Noel Murray on AV described as “the damndest last shot I’ve ever seen” is kind of sinking it a bit. Amusing that that guy thought the last shot was some work of magic, you were barely paying attention to it, and I somehow mistakenly thought it meant there was a big-ass mondo flood coming at all the characters just out of frame and they all died within seconds.
Funny – my memory is that Hushpuppy says that she *lived* in the bathtub. Could be wrong, of course, but I don’t remember anything about death or dying at that point.
Also I think the movie would’ve been a little more fun with Elle Fanning or Chloe Moretz as Hushpuppy.
Or that little prospect from Moonrise Kingdom.
The line is “Once there was a Hushpuppy and she lived with her daddy in the bathtub.”
At the end? That’s what she says at the end? I thought she said that at the beginning, and at the end said “Once there was a Hushpuppy and she died in the bathtub.”
She changes it at the end and says she dies. The water comes in and drowns them all. The last shot is Hushpuppy dying.
Think the water just represents the challenges she’s going to be in for the rest of her life thanks to her father’s lousy parenting skills.
There’s an AWESOME article on the front page of MCN about BEASTS that really nailed what I was thinking. It talks about folklore and how the movie *can* be taken as literal or allegorical but you don’t have to. I dig the malleable nature of it.
And I never really thought they died at the end, Lex….but the way you wrote it out, you may have a point. But again, I think the films pretty ambiguous overall so several reds can be put on it.
I also agree that Dwight Henry’s performance is off the charts. He starts off so insane and curmudgeonly but he grows on you. As I said earlier, the whole FILM is just such an accomplishment. How did they even MAKE that movie? The filmmaker in me was scared for the people in the frigging thing. I agree with the Malick and DGG vibe but it also reminded me of old-school Herzog. Like AGUIRRE or FITZCARRALDO. Just an artist telling a huge, epic story in a small, personal way with tons of insane set pieces.
Also, since we’re on the subject. This review of BEASTS by Ebert’s hire Ignatiy Vishnevetsky continues to annoy the fuck outta me. I think he’s a bright kid but personal reviews like this that just smack of throwing down on positive buzz like a grumpy, petulant child is a rookie move. The guy is too big for his britches, the strings are showing.
http://mubi.com/notebook/posts/notebook-reviews-benh-zeitlins-beasts-of-the-southern-wild