In Defense Of Box Office
The line between “important” and “trivial” is not a new issue for journalism since the birth of the internet. The most powerful gossips in American history worked during a time without television, much less the web. Their power came from the narrow corridors of media power, when one man (Hearst) could dominate the news through the newspapers he owned and radio (and early television) was dominated by 2 or 3 key figures because there was no room for more. (This is not to diminish those early broadcast newsmen, but Murrow did trivial crap as well as hard-hitting investigations.)
The question of whether box office requires the amount of “reporting” it receives in the media is addressed by the AP’s Dave Germain in “Will Anyone Really Miss The Box Office?”
It says a lot to me that Dave (whom I know) actually manages to squeeze in not only box office analysis into this piece, but both Friday estimates and a weekend estimate. So, I guess the AP really missed the box office. But getting beyond that minor hypocrisy…
The funny thing about the piece, which concludes by pretty clearly suggesting that the answer to the title’s question if, “no,” makes a very good case for why box office analysis, done with actual insight, is of real value. He also makes a good case for why the “Top 5” that runs everywhere is pretty worthless. But I would go even further. I would say that some of the box office analysis in major papers – specifically the LA Times and NY Times – is very weak on insight or reporting, casually repeating memes of older people who don’t much care about the movies that are every bit as shallow as Top 5 lists in the local Pennysaver.
Bad box office analysis is rampant. And that is somewhat trivial, but can be quite destructive when repeated endlessly. Just a couple of weeks ago, a fairly serious guy at Variety repeated the “teen boys have stopped going to the movies” meme… which is, simply, untrue. There is no statistic anywhere that proves this… or really, even suggests it. This goes back to the bullshitter-in-a-china-shop, Sharon Waxman, who made industry reporting that was unfit to print for the New York Times. The hysterical “teens are so busy texting and MySapce-ing and stealing movies, they couldn’t possibly keep paying for movie tickets.” Yet, every year since, the box office has been dominated by movies that are seen first and foremost by… you guessed it… teen boys.
And that is the danger of bad analysis. Repeated enough, it gets sticky, even if it was untrue from Day One.
That said, the Best Seller lists in the publishing business have been a much more significant part of the marketing of books for decades than Top 5 box office lists have ever been. And on television, a show can die of weak ratings in a couple of weeks… sometimes less.
I believe Dave was well-intended in his piece, but even his examples are examples of what is wrong with box office reporting. For one thing, the estimations of ticket sales are not close to factual. They are estimates based on estimates. Second, the 3D bump is not easily defined either. Third, international is responsible for over 55% of the gross on almost all the big grossers… not even mentioned. Fourth, inflation is the least significant issue when looking to pre-1990 box office, starting with Gone With The Wind opening at a time when television didn’t exist, that it’s gross has been counted over many re-issues that are obviously not in 1939 dollars, and that it was released as a premium-priced show, making the estimated pre-ticket price at the time of its release irrelevant. I could go on from them.
Look… The interest in box office can be silly. It surely can be obsessive. Every paper doesn’t need to run numbers every week. And it’s capital-I Importance is dubious. However, truth matters. Bad info can actually do damage over time to a business, even the movie business. I am actually surprised that the “people don’t want to go to the movies” lie hasn’t done more damage after 6+ years of it being repeated as though it was a fact.
On any given weekend, more than 10 million Americans are spending their money to go to the movies. I don’t see anything wrong with engaging in a discussion about that. And the passion of those discussing it is really not up to me.
And it’s worth pointing out that as I was writing this, the AP joined a few other major news dispersers that just couldn’t wait until tomorrow to run TDKR box office estimates from the weekend. As usual, the report does not bother to extend the fundamental fact that these are estimates, as you can’t know what the Sunday business will be until Sunday is over. Irresponsible on top of unfortunate.
OK, I’m sure Sharon Waxman doesn’t need me rushing to her defense, but isn’t it possible that even though the top-grossing movies every year are those geared toward young males, those young males are buying fewer tickets? Put it another way: Isn’t it possible that a lot of young males who bought tickets to The Avengers, and have already seen Dark Knight Rises, aren’t seeing as many non-tentpole movies in theaters as they used to? I’m not saying I know the answer to this question. Indeed, all I could offer is some anecdotal evidence that’s probably less than useless. But, again, could this be true?
Any narrowly defined stat could be true, Joe. But again, there is zero evidence of it. It’s not like we’ve seen a big shift of dollars to more adult movies.
And by the way, the argument that dramas don’t do business is also bullshit. The cost of studio dramas outpaced a steady box office… and that’s why they are out of favor. (also, they are low-return, even if steady return… also stupidly out of vogue)
What Waxman did was to shift stats to serve her message, which was false and inexcusable.
I’m not trying to start a fight here, but I’m not sure I understand your third sentence.
It is funny that in lieu of a tragedy the response is ‘let’s not make this about money’ and stop reporting on the box office, the networks pull ads and start pulling ‘violent programming’, whatever the hell that means.
These are knee jerk reactions. Why not post the box office as usual? The natural response when something terrible happens is to make pointless gestures.
What is the impact of pulling those ads? The impact of not reporting box office? What’s the point of useless gestures?
Appeasement.
It helps quell the debate about violent media begetting violent behavior. It appeases the 10% of the country that is offended by ancillary associations to tragedy. These are not honest, heartfelt gestures. This is ‘stick your head in the sand and wait until it blows over to return to the status quo’. I’m more insulted when they pull these stunts.
The world doesn’t stop for these senseless tragedies, nor should it. Do you really expect multi billion dollar businesses to change their behavior for one shot up theater? I’m not trying to be insensitive, but in a country of 300 million people you expect everything to stop on a dime for one random act of violence?
It’s the fact that the world does stop on a dime for this stuff that helps generate this level of insanity from the disenfranchised. They are made into celebrities. The world stops and plasters their picture on the front page of everything.
Im not saying this isnt a tragedy, it is. Im not saying we shouldnt mourn and show respect. But how does pulling ads and not reporting box office a sign of respect? Its an empty gesture. It’s, at best, a PR move. It’s disingenuous and i find it a little dumb.
I mean, just say that statement out loud.
“Out of respect to the victims and their families, we will not be reporting the box office this weekend.”
Ludicrous. Pandering. Insulting.
Instead of box office reporting and distraction, you can watch another twenty minutes of around the clock footage on the guy who senselessly killed a bunch of people.
Such a non story. And people jump all over Nikki Finke, who i agree just comes across like a genuinely terrible person, over this issue.
This is what people are going to get pissed at Finke for? She has the moral compass of a grifter and your mad because she posted box office results on a weekend where some guy killed a dozen people. When did people become sensitive to the point of lunacy?
Run the ads. Report the box office. And fuck appeasement.
The idea of teenagers not going to the movies anymore is absurd. The movies along with malls remain the number one out of school meet up for kids that don’t party.
There is one trend that I think studios and exhibitors need to watch out for though. There’s a growing constituency of well educated young people in their twenties and thirties that simply don’t think studios make quality adult films anymore. To many of them cable now is the place to go for well told stories. These people don’t do the leg work to go to the art houses where they would find stuff that they’d actually enjoy. To them all they see through tv ads and the internet is comic book film, boner comedy, crappy horror film, comic book movie, boner comedy, etc., etc.
I’m somewhat inclined to agree with them. I mean what “studio films” with decent ad budgets rivaled the latest season of “Mad Men” or “Breaking Bad.” “Moneyball” or Fincher’s “GWTDT” remake or “Contagion”? I can’t really think of many other films.
I work with people who haven’t been to the movies in months despite living in a big city and being otherwise “out and about.” I just wonder what ramifications it will have for the business in the long term when these people start families, will they raise kids that don’t similarly don’t value the theatrical experience?
I would imagine that they are not pandering, but instead are woried about reporting it and being verbally assaulted for “not being considerate” or something. It is amazing how people/companies have become so fearful of retaliation in this age of Fox news.
BoulderKid: Maybe the key element here is “teenager,” as opposed to “young people.” Are people 20-30 the ones who are buying fewer tickets, and amusing themselves with other entertainment options (including, of course, movies on video and cable)?
@ Joe
I think thats right. Those who have aged out of that period where seeing a movie is just the most expedient way of getting away from your parents. Just for reference I’m 26 and I have a lot of friends who really need to be incentivized to go to the theater. My girlfriend probably wouldn’t even see “The Dark Knight Rises” if I don’t ask her to come with me.
” It is amazing how people/companies have become so fearful of retaliation in this age of Fox news.”
isnt that the very definition of appeasement?
Anghus I agree with you that pulling the box office reporting is a PR stunt. But it’s the safe, no more harm done PR stunt. It’s the pussy move if you will.
It’s also the smaller mess to clean up than coming across as the insensitive studio that touts its box office prowess on the weekend that people got killed watching their money. Talk about dancing in the end zone over dead bodies. And all it takes is one person to post a link of this nature and all of sudden you have gone from small PR hiccup, to massive PR nightmare.
Movie studios were not created to be brave, or to make statements, or not pussy out when their back is proverbially against a PR wall. They are there to entertain you, nothing more nothing less. And as soon as the experience becomes less entertaining, then the safe move is to pull back and wait until the atmosphere is right again.
Is there a middle ground here? Sure there is. WB could have left the reporting up to third parties that are strictly by the numbers people, like Rentrak or some other firm, and not issue any statements whatsoever. What also compounded the issue is that other studios joined in and said they wouldn’t report their figures either.
As a guy who is an admitted box office junkie, yes I miss the numbers, because it’s my hobby, but I’ll survive, we all will, except the 12 who died in the theater.
I will not join the chorus of those who say they are surprised this does not happen more often, mainly because the mere idea of someone slaughtering innocent persons in this way is still a shock to my senses.
And people always say when something like this happens that his family ignored the signs, the guy was withdrawn, a loner, kept to himself, was suicidal, dressed in black all the time, and countless other ‘telling’ signs that he was about to off several people. All of those things are signs of other things as well. But I’ll tell you what, here’s one sign that a guy might be thinking to off several people…..an online purchase for 6000 rounds of ammunition. When you say certain combinations of words a flag is raised if it’s a threat to the President or National Security. This guy didn’t pay cash to some guy selling ammo from the back of his truck. He legitimately bought his ammo and guns online, and no flag raised, with any agency. They need to fix that shit.
Joe Leydon — It’s probably “It’s not like we’ve seen a big shift of dollars to more adult movies.”
Chris: OK, that makes sense.
It’s not like we’ve seen a big shift of dollars to more adult movies.
Anghus, its ultimately meaningless that they are not reporting box office, but its a gesture While it has nothing to do with Warner Brothers, I’m sure there is quite a bit of guilt that it happened at one of their movies, heck even more guilt if they admit their first thought might have been how it would effect their bottom line.
But there is nothing Warners can do to make this better so they are at least acknowledging the tragedy.
Intelligent box-office analysis is impossible without discussing actual profitability. The bragging rights associated with trumped-up “records” and opening weekends and market share mean nothing. The bottom line is all. And since studios often lie about budgets and (particularly) marketing expenditures, very few analyses are worth the paper they’re printed on.
In the case of international boxoffice, which has inflated a lot of the worldwide b.o. figures in the last few years, it is amazing to me that studios like to include Chinese numbers in their much-hyped totals, but no ever mentions the fact that foreign studios only make 25% on rentals in the Chinese market (and this is only in the last few months; it was a mere 15% before that, until the studio-quota deal was renegotiated). They also often have to bribe Chinese officials to get one of the coveted quota slots, or are shut out of the market entirely. Thus, when you have a situation where a dollar in gross in China is worth half of what a dollar in gross is worth in, say, Russia and, in turn, a Russian dollar of gross is worth 2/3 of what a dollar in gross is worth domestically (studios usually get at least 75% in rentals during the first two weeks of release in the U.S., versus, at best, 50% overseas), parsing worldwide figures is next to impossible.
Bottom line: if you want to get actual information on how profitable a studio is in a given year, ignore Nikki Finke and read the actual quarterly earnings report their parent companies have to file with the SEC — they can’t lie in those.
“Run the ads. Report the box office. And fuck appeasement.”
What’s with all this blanket extremism? How about: it’s a tragedy, the studio don’t want to brag about their cash plow and that’s actually the decent thing to do. End of story.
If you think this is worthy, please pass it on.
http://www.movingpictureblog.com/2012/07/take-back-knight-and-be-not-afraid.html
Joe: that is very worthy. The sad but unlikely possibility of psychotic copycat a-holes aside, the tragedy in Colorado was a freak anomalous occurence (statistically speaking) and should not scare people from going to the movies, any more than a witnessing a news report of a car crash should make one give up driving.
Can we agree, however, that Nikki Finke is a human piece of excrement for so gleefully defying WB’s respectful request and compounding her offense further by wrapping her excuse for doing so in sanctimony while simultaneously featuring a guess-the-boxoffice-tally poll on her front page under a heading asking “how will the Colorado shootings affect TDKR’s boxoffice this weekend?”
Frankly, it’s difficult for me to join in on any pile-on for Nikki Finke because she’s never been anything but polite and encouraging and supportive in my dealings with her. Seriously. We were at the Dallas Morning News during roughly the same period in the late 1970s, early ’80s. Right around the same time, BTW, that Bob Berney ran a suburban art house, and Charlie Rose had a local TV chat show. Funnily enough, as I have noted bfeore, I seem to be the only media type from that period who never amounted to anything. LOL.
I think it’s justifiable to pile-on to Finke because she has a seemingly endless talent for making any and every news story somehow about her. I mean, jesus:
“It may seem callous to post about less-than-packed theaters around the country and North American and worldwide box office this weekend after the Colorado movie theater tragedy. And of course our hearts go out to those killed and wounded. (I stayed up all Friday post-midnight/pre-dawn reporting on the shooting as the horrendous event unfolded.)”
What the fuck does that parenthetical have to do with anything except raw self-aggrandizement?
I think it’s worth remembering, in addition to the victims, that this tragedy will cost the film industry tens of millions of dollars. ICE AGE 4 was hammered this weekend, along with many of the other films in rotation. And not to stray close to Romney territory here, but films are made by people. I don’t think it’s a a stretch to say $50 million was lost by this tragedy over three days. And this ties in to people’s livelihoods.
“read the actual quarterly earnings report their parent companies have to file with the SEC — they can’t lie in those.”
Hahahahahahahahahahaha :-).
I manage money for a living. A little hedge fund and some traditional long only. Both strategies focused on media stocks. Plenty of lies. Part of our nation’s and the world’s problems.
In case anyone is interested, live discussion on Canadian radio station on whether anyone did not go to Dark Knight this weekend because of the tragedy.
http://player.cknw.com/
Mojo has the numbers up now. Honestly, it felt like a good decision to refrain from reporting until Monday.
But then again, it seems like a good decision to do that every weekend.
Direwolf: Kudos. Ha, indeed. That was rather naive in retrospect. Perhaps I should have amended that to “not SUPPOSED TO lie in those.” Obviously a lot of stuff gets buried or not mentioned at all in quarterlies and they don’t usually break out detailed figures on the profit/loss on individual films, but they DO have to mention writedowns and often you’ll see that a movie that might have grossed a lot on paper and got called a “hit” in the press wasn’t really profitable at all.