20 Weeks Of Summer: Wrapping Up
We’re near the end of Summer 2012… at least in the United States. The tricky part of analyzing how things have gone this summer is that so many big films have big markets still coming up on their release schedules. I count 10 films of the 36 on my seasonal chart as “Incomplete.” Four because of international (TDKR, Amazing Spiderman, Brave, Savages) and six because they are either too new in the marketplace or not here yet (The Campaign, Bourne 4, Hope Springs, Timothy Green, Sparkle, and Expendables 2). There are other films that have a lot of room to grow internationally, but have their pictures fairly well started, such as Moonrise Kingdom, Magic Mike, The Watch, Rock of Ages, and others.
Here’s what I do know. I was low on The Avengers by around 50%. I was too bullish on Prometheus and Battleship, both of which did over $300 million, but not anywhere near the $700m range. I thought Total Recall was going to be a breakout this month… until I saw it. Audiences were not as swept away by Rome, as they were with Paris. Another Adam Sandler flop. And Moonrise Kingdom has been stronger than I saw coming.
I was bigger on Ted than almost anyone… but not big enough, about 20% bigger than my early guess, but heading towards over $300m worldwide. Magic Mike did my worldwide guestimate in the US alone. Snow White & The Huntsman managed near $400 million worldwide, over $100m more than I expected.
I had a good beat on Spider-Man, Men in Black 3, Ice Age 4, Dark Shadows, The Dictator, Tyler Perry, Abe Lincoln, and Exotic Marigold. TDKR, now over $850m worldwide, may get to $1b, but not to my guess of $1.2b.
Only two of the six “Meedtobe Blockbusters” really came up short. But family Product remains the surest bet in Hollywood.
The place where there was the most disappointment was in The Middle. I had nine films in that category (that have opened more than a week ago) and only the two real underdogs smashes – Ted & Magic Mike – are really successful. The Dictator did fine, though it wasn’t explosive. (But did about the same as Bruno domestically and a little better overseas.) One thing about this group… all nine were “originals,” which makes one wonder whether “Hollywood” has forgotten how to sell a new idea (with, obviously, two exceptions).
Also not delivering big was my “2nd Tier Blockbusters” group, with only Snow White delivering more than $100m worldwide so far (and Bourne about to).
Analyzing this can be a Rorschach test. What does the author thing of the business. Me? I think the obsessive focus on the most expensive, highest profile movies have made studio marketing and distribution less sharp with less clearly defined product. WB is the exception this summer, missing badly only with Chernobyl Diaries. The Campaign and Dark Shadows may be a little disappointing, but both opened fairly well. And Magic Mike & Ted are really the two great surprises of the summer, driven, at first, by great marketing… both, by the way, R-rated and required to hint more than show.
Anyway, Disney had the biggest numbers and a tiny output. Paramount had the thinnest schedule, with just two films. Sony’s flops put a damper on their two $600m+ movies. WB did okay. U dud a lot to make up for Battleship with one of the summer’s biggest successes in Ted and nice numbers elsewhere. And Fox barely scraped by with Ice Age covering a myriad of sins, including The Watch, which will compete with That’s My Boy as the ugliest shoulda-been-commercial story of the summer.
I can’t bring myself to say that a studio that releases two franchise-y films in a summer and threw away one little fish from DreamWorks (which deserved better) is The Winner. But if you need to pick one… and you can’t get past Battleship… I guess that’s the pick. But for a studio that has taken a lot of heat this summer, Universal deserves recognition for selling – if not budgeting – their movies this summer.
Is there a loser? An even harder call. I don’t think so. The Weinsteins smashed their Piranha franchise into the rocks. But they were barely in the game this summer. Maybe Tobey Emmerich at the shell game that is New Line (Rock of Ages).
You tell me…
You’re right, Dave. Venezuela is a small market but, as an example, “Brave” just opened last week. And we still haven’t seen “Prometheus”, “Dark Shadows”, “Rock of Ages”, “Ted”, “Snow White and the Huntstam”. If that’s the case with the whole latin american markets, it’s clear that the story is not over yet.
Charlize Theron starred in two movies this summer that made juuuust enough to justify sequels should the studios want them.
“All none were original.” That doesn’t make sense. Maybe you meant “All nine were original…”?
Ahhh… never mind. The chart layout made it look like you’d put in box-office numbers for “GI Joe: Retaliation.”
Thanks, CAD… corrected.
And yeah, Drew, didn’t want to just erase the movies without grosses or that were moved out of summer… so the bolding.
I would put TED incomplete. It has half the international market to go, and has been a phenom so far overseas.
Agreed, Disney is the winner by default.
Universal had a fine summer, but no better than WB. They released one fewer film than WB but likely spent at least $50 million more on the production side. SWATH and BATTLESHIP cost nearly as much as TDKR and DARK SHADOWS. BOURNE cost nearly as much as MAGIC MIKE, CHERNOBYL, THE CAMPAIGN and ROCK OF AGES combined. As you say in an earlier post, is 400 million enough to make a 200 million cost worth it? SWATH cost about 170, and made a bit under 400.
I agree that BOURNE and TED still have upside internationally, but so does TDKR, and overall Universal has grossed about $150 million less worldwide than WB while probably spending roughly the same with marketing thrown in.
SWatH was considered a slight disappointment by the studio (believe it or not), which was the primary reason given for dumping KStew, who would’ve made $10M up front for appearing in the sequel.
Even before L’Affaire, KStew was considered too polarizing–folks either love her or hate her–and the studio more or less admitted they made a mistake by counting on the legions of Twihards alone to support the film.
Looking at the way “Ice Age” and “Ted” are performing overseas, maybe that’s the secret. Make sure your movie has at least one character that can be dubbed by a local celebrity to help with the local PR.
K-STEW is the NUMBER ONE AND ONLY REAL REASON SWATH was a MEGA HIT, she is one of the biggest stars in the world, and THE highest paid current actress.
Everyone EVERYONE loves her. She is like Monroe in her heyday, only hot and sexy.
Lex, you better go see ON THE ROAD and BREAKING DAWN 2 at least 10 times each, because I don’t think she’s going to appear on-screen in 2013.
KRISTEN 4 EVER.
She is the new Angelina Jolie. She’ll be starring in movies for the next 15 years, GUARANTEED. She is the biggest, sexiest, awesomest, most extreme and INTENSE movie starlet since Jolie.
She is PURE, RAW CHARISMA…. she is hypnotic. Best actress of all time.
DP you had a lot of nice calls like “Dark Shadows” and the “Ted” breakout, but “Prometheus” as a 100-150m type film domestically could be seen from a mile away. I know “Alien and “Aliens” were really big hits when you think about the actual attendance, but anything connected to the series since “Alien 3” has ended up with Prometheus like numbers when you adjust for inflation/3D. Alien3, Resurrection, and the first AvP all did business very similar to Prometheus.
Funny. Lex was starting to cool on K-Stew…. untill he found out she’s open to banging middle-aged guys.
Keep the dream alive, Lex.
…middle-aged guys who could further her career.
Don’t think that applies to anyone here…unless Don’s lurking in the shadows.
Lex is already primed for 2014…when K-Stew competes on “Dancing With The Stars.”
…and gets voted off the first week.