Friday Estimates by Klady
It’s a forgettable box office weekend. The Bourne Legacy is heading to an okay launch in the low 40s (perhaps high 30s). That’s great for a Jeremy Renner movie and not terribly exciting for the franchise. At a reported cost of $125m for production alone, profitability is likely, but no lock. Bourne, the rare franchise which has never done as much internationally as domestically, is either going to have to stay quite strong for the rest of the month at home or turn around the streak and more than match domestic overseas.
The Campaign is on the low end of Ferrell’s big openings. Again, no disaster. I suspect that the budget is not $100m, as WB must have taken the US-only nature of the material into account, right?
Hope Springs is the only really unhappy tale. Ont he other hand, people feared worse. The film, which is apparently less of a light comedy than it’s being sold as, hasn’t found a buzzy hook, like Streep singing Abba, Streep being Julia Child, or Streep being an uber-bitch. On some level, this opening is a tribute to just how strong she is. But no one in SonyLand will be happy with this.
A “meh” second weekend of August.
But another great example of why the studio indulgence of Nikki Finke wanting to be first with box office is more dangerous than one idiot blogger having poor information being run as news.
The Bourne Legacy is a big movie for a company in transition. Ron Meyer is “leaving early” and whoever fills his office is going to be looking long and hard at the team that’s been in charge since Shmuger & Linde. So, the “FIRST BOX OFFICE” landed on Deadline at 12:48p PDT. That’s 3:48p East Coast and likely covered the box office until about 3p eastern. So a couple shows in the east, first of the day in the midwest and in mountain time… plus Midnights.
I think publishing those numbers is stupid… and if Nikki did that, she would probably not get the information handed to her. But extrapolating the 3-day weekend out of 1st and 2nd shows on Friday w/o the west coast is really, really dumb. You can tell “thumbs up” or “thumbs down, but anything more subtle than that is still conjecture at that time.
But under pressure, Universal started spinning… or some other studio, hoping to embarrass Universal when real numbers landed started spinning.
Finke wrote: “I haven’t heard Hollywood this encouraged about the domestic box office since The Avengers. Let’s face it: every studio this summer is making the vast majority of money off the international grosses. So to have North America back in business was helping mop up mogul flopsweat.”
First line of bullshit. Even with overstated numbers, there was nothing terribly exciting about this weekend’s numbers. Nikki was being played. Even at its highest projection, Bourne would be the 10th best opening of the summer of 24 major studio wide releases. Campaign was projected at around the same opening level as The Dictator and Madea. Hope Springs was looking at an opening on the level of That’s My Boy.
Worse, the ongoing mythology of the failing domestic box office is offensive. There is NO… I mean that literally… not a whit of evidence that Aurora had any effect on the this weekend or the two weekends before at the box office. Last Friday, there were some concerns, but the drops that were worrisome all turned around before the end of the weekend. And this moronic thing about comparing this year’s 30th weekend to last year’s 30th weekend… oy. You want to know “The Aurora Effect” last weekend? The Watch and Step Up: Lionsgate opened. The year before, Cowboys & Aliens, The Smurfs, AND Crazy Stupid Love all opened. That’s $91m in openers vs $25m in openers.
Weekend 31? Rise of the Planet of the Apes vs Total Recall.
Yeah… must be Aurora.
The domestic box office summer is #2 all-time right now, running $50m behind last summer as of today. The domestic year is up 4.5% over last year, and is #2 all time to date, behind 2010 by $16m.
But still… one idiot publishing prematurely and making wild, inaccurate commentary.
The bigger problem came last night, when the other shoe dropped. How could Universal explain the number that Crazy Nikki had printed early on Friday being overstated by 10%? That’s what inspired today’s lie…
“strong matinees and early evening shows gave way last night to emptier late shows, unfortunately. “Daytime business was fabulous. But everything after 10 PM wasn’t,” a studio exec tells me. “Even exhibition is saying that fewer people are going to late night shows.” Theories abound, like Aurora or the Olympics. The result is that some of Friday’s earlier revved-up forecasts slowed. This may still be a rare ‘up’ total weekend of $150M.”
Uh, Bullshit.
What Nikki fails to mention at that point is that both The Campaign and Hope Springs were UP from her premature predictions on Friday afternoon. So people who like comedies are less afraid of Aurora or more likely to watch the Olympics? Maybe this is a new industry trend we should be obsessing on!
Or maybe, the earliest numbers were misleading – though I had a reader tweet in that the Bourne numbers looked high to him based on Thursday midnight shows – and now, Nikki Whisperers were covering their asses by using excuses that Nikki doesn’t know enough to analyze seriously. Maybe Universal didn’t want to look like their movie was suddenly underperforming – though it wasn’t – after Nikki stupidly claimed it was overperforming – which it wasn’t. Maybe the WB whisper was different. Maybe the Sony whisper was also different.
In the end, besides one idiot writing up an incoherent mess which will be transmitted to an unknowing public via Matt Drudge, we have Bourne being built up and then defended, theatrical being presented as unstable, Aurora still being brought up though it is clearly a non-issue, and a bizarre skew on how domestic theatrical is doing overall this year and this summer.
All of those things, repeated by enough people who don’t know better, are dangerous to the industry and to the box office.
Or maybe it’s just a fart in the wind.
We’ll see if the wire services and other box office ignoramuses pick up on these clearly false notions.
Have a nice Saturday.
Sad that RED HOOK SUMMER isn’t getting more traction.
Amazed they pulled off this opening for BOURNE WITHOUT BOURNE, though, as one of the most confusing films I’ve ever seen, we’ll see how it plays out.
Btw I think it’s safe to say TOTAL RECALL is the bomb of the summer.
As someone who found “Syriana” well-nigh impenetrable–and had considerable difficulty following Tony Gilroy’s two previous films as director (the fractured narrative/jigsaw puzzles “Duplicity” and “Michael Clayton”)–I was surprised at how little trouble I had w/ “Legacy.”
And I hadn’t seen the last (Damon) “Bourne” since it’s original release.
I think it’s just one of those movies you either surrender to, or not.
And I happily surrendered.
Renner was fantastic, and I loved the one-on-one stuff w/ him and Jason Isaac and Rachel Weisz.
I need to see it again at some point. I probably went in jadedly expecting a dumbed down reborquel.
“Syriana-” my goodness yes. “Clayton” and “Duplicity” didn’t have problems with, but they were far more convoluted than necessary.
I loved “Duplicity” the second time I saw it (on HBO).
But the first time I was pretty much lost re: the whole time/space continuum, lol.
And I still think “MC” would have been more effective–and less gimmicky–if Gilroy had told the story in a more linear fashion rather than go all Inarritu on us.
Jason Isaac was not in Bourne. Whom are talking you about?
Must be embarrassing for Total Recall to get beat up by a Wimpy Kid in it’s 2nd weekend.
Me culpa; I meant “Oscar Isaac.”
So when Michael Keaton cloned himself, it messed up “the whole time/space continuum”…?
I don’t remember that part.
I think the best thing about the new ‘Total Recall’ is that it helped people to acknowledge how great it’s the original film with Schwarzenegger. I’ve seen it two nights in a row in basic cable in Latin America and I’m amazed at how good it is. What’s the point of a remake or a reboot if it doesn’t improve on the original?
“Duplicity,” not “Multiplicity.”
Watched the original Predator last night and felt the same way about that reboot as well. I’ve come to the conclusion that the only actor worthy of stepping into Arnold’s shoes is The Rock. He can be a strong man, and with an even more natural flair for humor. Give him a good script and Director, and hell, if James Cameron wants a True Lies 2, partner the two of them, and it’ll do gangbusters.
I think Statham when he’s allowed to step out of his comfort zone…THE BANK JOB is fantastic, and he’s excellent in supporting turns in LOCK STOCK, SNATCH and ITALIAN JOB. The CRANK and TRANSPORTER films and SAFE are weird and original. Sadly, he seems to be stuck in a low budget high B-movie ghetto he’ll never get out of.
Arnold passed the torch to Dwayne Johnson in the Rundown:
I saw on variety that “Hope Springs” was described as a troubled production. Anyone know what was troubled about it?
How can you compare Michael Clayton to anything Inarritu has done. MC opens NEAR the end and goes back before arriving at the opening scene one whole act from the end. And with that exception, the whole thing is straightforward. It certainly doesn’t treat time/space as a tossed salad.
I really enjoyed it.
And yawned all the way through Duplicity.
Dang, movieman, how are we supposed to keep track of all these sequels and reboots with similar names?
Now I see why the studios just go with numbers.
P.S. Yeah, Pope, I thought Mr. Mom was so much better.
Gus,
Meryl Streep. I hear she’s been a real diva ever since she won her first Oscar.
“What’s the point of a remake or a reboot if it doesn’t improve on the original?”
It’s, uh, printed on newer film stock?
Glad to see love for SAFE. It’s easily his best pure action film and my favorite Statham anything outside of The Bank Job. Chalk me up in the ‘loved Michael Clayton/Duplicity but hated Bourne Legacy’ camp. Still, I remember during Duplicity being absolutely terrified when I realized I had to use the restroom and wouldn’t be able to hold it until the end; so sure I would miss something incredibly important. Heck, I’ll also go to bat for Multiplicity, a painfully underrated comedy that earns points by taking its relationship drama seriously, which makes the comedy work that much better.
“Syriana” is Gaghan, not Gilroy, for the record.
I know Gilroy wasn’t involved w/ “Syriana.”
I was just referencing a film that–apparently like a lot of other
people–I found incredibly confusing and hard to follow.
That seemed pertinent in discussing “Bourne Legacy,” a movie that a lot of folks seem to be having difficulty with.
Pope- I was kidding.
And the film I made that time/space continuum joke about was “Duplicity,” not “MC.”
(At least after my first viewing. The second time I didn’t have any trouble at all, and actually watched it in 15-minute increments.)
Sorry, but anyone who thinks Michael Clayton was too hard to follow should be too embarrassed to admit it.
…and Movieman takes yet another hit to the groin from Mr. Leydon, lol.
Glad I could be your favorite new whipping boy, Joe.
I didn’t say that “MC” was “too hard to follow.”
As Et noted above, it was definitely too convoluted for its own good, though.
I still think it would have been more effective if Gilroy had chosen to tell the story in a linear fashion. The jigsaw puzzle-like structure felt unnecessarily gimmicky to me.
Joe, the movie wasn’t badly made but tethered its wagon to technical convolutions over substance in my opinion.
Not a single mainstream moviegoer I know ever cites Clayton. It is an inside baseball academy movie to the extreme, not that I’m saying that’s wrong. It is what it is, and it’s a movie you must watch very carefully for a reward that isn’t particularly great–you just feel intellectually capable if you “get the point.” It isn’t an “adult movie” as advertised. That would be “Up in the Air” or (a film I very much dislike) “The Descendents.”
And what is the deal with Compliance being listed here?
Is that the same Compliance from Sundance this year? The one that’s supposed to be released next week?
Compliance from Sundance this year – yup … takes awhile to get to regular theatres
bachelorette also from sundance is coming to vod like this week or next
someone should release a DVD set of ‘multiplicity’ and ‘duplicity’ just to be random.
a funny little anecdote about ‘Bourne Ultimatum’ (haven’t seen it yet): when i came out of one of the theatres after ‘dark knight rises’ a gaggle of teens was walking by the lobby one-sheet for ‘Ultimatum’ and one said, referring to the poster, “matt damon’s not in it” and another guy walked right up to it, jabbed his finger at renner’s face on the poster and said, “no, no, NO, NO, NO!”. i couldn’t help cracking up, too funny, that one dude had pretty strong feelings about it and wasn’t shy making it known, he might have been stoned off his nut or something.
I think Hope Springs will have a lot of legs. The budget didn’t seem that high. Why would anyone be disappointed with this opening?
Waterbucket- My only worry about “Hope Springs” developing healthy legs is fear that w.o.m. could be tepid.
Will audiences think they’re the victims of a bait-and-switch?
The trailers make it look like a cutesy (young) geriatric sitcom instead of the thoughtful, sensitive movie it is.
At times I thought I was watching a French movie in English.
…if only because I can’t think of very many recent Hollywood movies that have chosen the marital/sexual dysfunction of a sixtysomething married couple as their principal narrative. (And treated it with compassion and wit instead of condescension and snark.)
Why is movieman worrying about Hope Spring’s legs?
Why doesn’t SAFE get more love from action fans?
Why do people think the original Total Recall is good?
Why can’t people understand the simple reason remakes occur?
Why is Multiplicity mentioned without “best clone film’ right next to it?
Why don’t people give Keaton more love, especially after that recent interview with him where he spilled the beans on Tarantino’s drunken korean girl fracas?
Why does no one ever mention 12 And Holding when talking about Renner?
Why has no one made a joke about that film about two dutch hookers called Meet the Fokkens?
Why is movieman worrying about Hope Spring’s legs?
Because he’s sexually aroused by women in their 60’s?
Why doesn’t SAFE get more love from action fans?
I got bored with Statham films. I used to watch them all, but he’s remarkably wooden. After Killer Elite i kind of zoned out.
Why do people think the original Total Recall is good?
It’s not good. It’s enjoyable trash. It’s entertaining and fearlessly stupid. Movies arent like that anymore so people use the word ‘good’ instead of ‘fun’.
Why can’t people understand the simple reason remakes occur?
For some reason there’s a lot of people who think that there is a stack of a thousand great screenplays sitting with dust on them while studios greenlight Green Hornet or Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle. There are people who still believe movies are put into production for any other reason than to make money and/or win awards.
Why is Multiplicity mentioned without “best clone film’ right next to it?
Because it wasn’t a hit when it came out. With Ramis’ pedigree everyone was expecting a hit. It kind of came and went without much consideration. And to be fair, it hasnt exactly had a resurgance or anything. I rarely hear people bring it up as an example of awesome cinema. In fact, you’re the first person i can remember praising it to that level.
Why don’t people give Keaton more love, especially after that recent interview with him where he spilled the beans on Tarantino’s drunken korean girl fracas?
I love Keaton. I dont know if i’d call saying he was in a fracas with Korean girls’ but id already gone home ‘spilling the beans’.
Why does no one ever mention 12 And Holding when talking about Renner?
I don’t know what that is. Had to google it. Maybe that’s why.
Why has no one made a joke about that film about two dutch hookers called Meet the Fokkens?
Again, had to google it.
“Why doesn’t SAFE get more love from action fans?”
Because maybe a movie about a woman who may or may not have MCS doesn’t really jangle their nads? Still though, Julianne Moore…whoooah.
OK, movieman. But in your sentence, “two previous films” has only one film mentioned to refer to, so I think my confusion is understandable.
Waterbucket… because Streep has been a $20m opener in this slot for years.
…and she has an assist from Steve Carell, who you’d think could bring butts to seats for the kind of movie the marketing was telling people “Hope Springs” is.
The budget of Hope Springs: less than $30m. Don’t worry. Sony is still going to make a fortune out of it.
The five-day total for Hope Springs is about $20 million, meaning it would have been another $20m Fri-Sun had Sony not arbitrarily decided to open it on Wednesday. As for ‘this slot’, she’s had exactly two one other movie here, Jules and Julia three summers ago. She’s had a bunch of high-profile $20 million+ debuts stretching back to late July 2004 (Manchurian Candidate), but they all had various release dates. Offhand, Lemony Snicket and That’s Complicated were December, Devil Wears Prada was July 4th, while Mama Mia was mid-July.
Anghus and JBD: I was merely responding to Waterbucket’s comment about the possibility (or not) of “HS” evincing b.o. legs.
I liked the movie and hope it does well.
Geez.
BOURNE 4: Some Dude Goes to Manila To Get a Flu Shot.
Does Tony Gilroy hate the pharmaceutical industry more than Cruise and Maher combined?
I for one would watch a documentary about twin hookers, even if they are 69 years old.
“For some reason there’s a lot of people who think that there is a stack of a thousand great screenplays sitting with dust on them while studios greenlight Green Hornet or Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle.”
There ARE. I’ve read a lot of them, many by famous, successful, even award-winning writers. The answer to your question is painfully obvious: they don’t get greenlit because it’s believed “the kids” won’t go to them.