By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com
Friday Estimates by ParaLeonard
Welcome to the dregs. Same as it ever was.
The Expendables 2 has lost the element of surprise that Stallone’s first inspiration offered. But there is still an audience out there for this kind of genre self-reflection. The opening day is off about 29% from the first, but an opening in the high 20s is still likely to be Lionsgate’s best non-Hunger Games opening since the last Expendables. (Possibly #3 behind a Madea from 2010) At this rate of fall-off, the film will still hit $200m worldwide.
The Bourne Legacy continues to run ahead of the first film in the franchise and behind the other two. You can read that as you like, really. On a smaller scale, this looks a bit like the effort to do an Underworld movie without Kate Beckinsale. She’s not the only one who can film a pair of skin-tight rubber pants… but people just want to see her do it more than Rhona Mitra. The ongoing viability of the franchise will depend on this film… or getting Matt Damon back on board. Time will tell.
Sparkle is a remake of an important, but somewhat obscure blaxploitation era film. One gets the feeling that Sony didn’t really have the stomach to fully exploit Whitney Houston’s death to pump up this opening by a few million. Good on them. The result is a decent, okay open.
Paranorman opens to within a couple hundred thousand of Coraline. It’s a very good movie and while less pre-estrogen-invested than Coraline, not a “boy movie.” Coraline paid a box office price as it rolled along for losing 3D screens. Will Paranorman push past that? We’ll see.
The Campaign didn’t ope big enough for a 60% Fri-to-Fri drop to be okay. It could be that real life is every bit as bizarre as the comedic choices in this movie. It could be that people just aren’t telling friends that it’s a “must see.” IS $80m domestic a good result for a Will Ferrell comedy? Not for the last decade.
Will The Odd Life of Timothy Green get to $17m for the 5-day? That seems pretty good at this part of the season for a movie without much heat. It gives the film a chance to build some word of mouth with a couple summer weeks left.
Ask the same question about Hope Springs that we do about Will Ferrell comedies… except that Meryl Streep’s track record is shorter in this regard and this movie is, apparently, less of a comedy than it’s being sold as. Sony has told the media that they only have a small investment in the film (plus P&A, I assume), so even if this ends up in the 70s, they will be healthy. But nothing thrilling about these numbers given the pedigree (including the director of Prada).
Decent opening for Cosmopolis, but not great and the rest of new indie is… passable.
Does anyone know the story behind EOne (?) versus, say, IFC, Magnolia or even Sony Classics releasing the Cronenberg film? Seems awfully peculiar.
that is a really good performance for sparkle seeing that they didnt take advantage of ms. houston’s death. I would like to see what the overseas# are eventually gonna be on the bourne film and how the end of the Olympics will help the overseas Numbers this weekend
Wasn’t Why Stop Now opening this week? Or Compliance?
COMPLIANCE opened in Canada, via eOne, last Friday and in NYC at the Sunshine this Friday. WHY STOP NOW opened in Chicago and New York City.
You’re welcome?
Movieman E1 has money to burn. They are swallowing Alliance. What’s so difficult to understand about them releasing Cosmopolis? Expect to see them behind lots of higher profile titles.
JBD- But isn’t E1–at least until now–known primarily as a video outfit?
Is it a Cronenbergian/Canadian thing? (You mentioned Alliance.)
It just seems to me that a critically acclaimed, rarefied artflick like “Cosmpolis” would have benefited from a more seasoned distrib’s TLC: an IFC, Magnolia or Sony Classics.
And a distrib who would have been savvy enough to know that a late fall release date–i.e., after making the North American festival
rounds–makes more sense than what, from all appearances, looks like a late summer dump.