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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Klady 2 (This Time They Have His Int’l Cumes)

No time to really analyze any of this, but I will quickly note that journalists still pushing the ticket sales, not box office meme are like Republicans trying to explain why the job figures aren’t real or that the polls are cooked. Counting tickets instead of grosses is not the new normal and remains an almost completely irrelevant statistic for studios. It would be overshadowed completely by revenue reductions on the Home Entertainment side, but those numbers are not reported, so you have repidiots obsessing on an obscure stat to try to prove a disinterest in theatrical because of their own disinterest.

September record opening last weekend. Possible October record opening this month… certainly the biggest non-threequel opening.

Decent hold for Looper, in spite of being right in the wheelhouse of the new chart topper. Hotel Tranny should drop in the mid-low 30s by the end of the weekend. Pitch Perfect‘s expansion is not gangbusters, but the movie is certainly heading to profitability, even without relying on international, where it could surprise.

Frankenweenie is doing about a third less than Paranorman, which is unfortunate, but reality is that animation is not a great bet when you scare off – literally – the parents of the under-10 crowd.

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32 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady 2 (This Time They Have His Int’l Cumes)”

  1. etguild2 says:

    According to Nikki Finke, a $14 million weekend for a movie about acapella singing fronted by Anna Kendrick and Brittany Snow (who hasn’t had a theatrical release in 4 years) is meh.

  2. Proman says:

    Actually, saying that ticket sales are irrelevant is like saying it doesn’t matter who has money as long as money is being earned, which is FAR MORE Republican-like.

    Of course, there is an even larger problem here. Ignoring the fact that higher ticket sales imply higher box office intake is a very miopic thing for a b.o. analyst to do. Studios should never loose track of how many people see their movies. It’s all too easy to loose track of audiences that way. Which is probably why they choose not to draw too much attention to these figures. It’s too bad that people like DP are all too willing to eat that up.

  3. StellaPD says:

    (Approximately) $49 million opening weekend for Taken 2!? Wow. To see the kind of movie that the likes of Van Damme, Seagal, Cuba Gooding, Jr., and Christian Slater, etc. make 3-4 times a year. I mean every Tuesday year round sees the DVD release of a movie like Taken 2. People sure like Liam Neeson, Action Hero.

  4. etguild2 says:

    As far as meh openings…V/H/S deserved better…best anthology since TRICK R TREAT. Wow that is a brutal number for BUTTER, and a surprisingly decent rollout for PAPERBOY given the pretty bad reviews, and sensationalism around the film.

  5. StellaPD says:

    I liked V/H/S but I would have watched it at home had I not seen it at a film fest. Probably something that was always going to do better on VOD/DVD.

  6. Joe Leydon says:

    Kinda odd that both Butter and The Oranges opened the same weekend — more than a year after they played at the 2011 Toronto Film Festival and, presumably, other fests.

  7. Joe Leydon says:

    Also worth noting: English Vinglish did much better than either of them, on fewer theaters.

  8. chris says:

    The “Butter” release has to be some kind of contractual obligation thing for the Weinsteins. Here, it opened in just one remote suburban location — and even that wasn’t announced until the Monday before its opening.

  9. Rob says:

    Chris, are you in Boston? I didn’t think it was opening locally and then I realized it’s at an arthouse in Newton, Mass.

  10. StellaPD says:

    The same is true here in Milwaukee. It’s playing at an AMC in the burbs and nowhere else.

  11. Ray Pride says:

    In Chicago, BUTTER is playing at the “Arboretum of South Barrington.”

  12. movieman says:

    I was planning to watch “Butter” on Amazon.com this weekend.
    But changed my mind when I saw the price hadn’t dropped to $6.99 the way it did w/ “Bachelorette” and “Arbitrage” once they opened in theaters.

  13. Jon says:

    What is “#Hold Your Breath” and why does it have a Twitter hash tag in its title?

  14. David Poland says:

    Proman… dare I say it again? Bullshit.

    The issue of how studios and exhibitors deal with revenue between them is a completely separate issue. When I say “no one cares,” obviously, I am aware that less popcorn and soda is being sold. Exhibitors have a reason to care. And in 15 year, quite literally NO journalist has been as aggressive, consistent, accurate, and thorough about arguing about all things studios have done to take advantage of exhibitors.

    But no one makes a movie that focuses on tickets sold.

    Moreover, the estimate that is the “tickets sold” stat is so general as to be statistically worthless. They don’t break out 3D bump, the % of tickets sold for 3D movies in 2D, IMAX bump, city-by-city variations in ticket pricing, etc, etc, etc. You – and no one except for people in dark offices of studios… and even then, often not – really know what the ticket sales are and what the average cost per ticket of any given movie is. So you are arguing undeniably false numbers when you talk about tickets sold. Every single time… no matter how well intended you are.

    “Studios should never loose track of how many people see their movies. It’s all too easy to loose track of audiences that way.”

    Seriously delusional to think that studios have a track of audiences.

    Every movie is a new product being sold. There are elements of familiarity. And there are core audiences which studios hope they can bring in as a foundation for certain genres, actor, etc. But they don’t have control of audiences. You see this time after time after time. This one is supposed to be a star so the movie should open to X. There are no elements that make sense for this movie, so they’ll be thrilled to open to X. People who think they can cake walk get walked over in this business. There are a few exceptions, going both ways. But there is no audience track of which to keep hold.

    There are a few good uses for ticket sales. Judging the health of the industry or a delivery system is not one of them.

    As I noted, if you wanted to deal with the real issues of movie revenues, any box office weaknesses and God knows, f-ing ticket sales, are NOTHING in comparison to the lose of Home Entertainment revenue for the last 3 – 5 years. Occasional theatrical lags are a minor afterthought in comparison.

  15. LYT says:

    “best anthology since TRICK R TREAT”

    Has there ever been an anthology movie that did REALLY well? If you have to reach back to Creepshow that doesn’t speak well of the form.

    And intertwined storyline things like Love Actually don’t count – seriously asking if there’s ever been a movie that was basically a collection of shorts with a wraparound segment that made bank.

  16. LtotheG says:

    “Thanks for the ride, lady!”

    CHIEF WOODENHEAD POWER.

  17. Joe Leydon says:

    On the subject of weird release patterns: The Tall Man with Jessica Biel) opened here in H-Town on a single megaplex screen Friday. But here’s the really weird part: About an hour ago, I saw it’s available in a Redbox kiosk.

  18. Loser says:

    Audiences don’t trust studios with their money. Proman is right: saying that ticket sales are irrelevant is like saying it doesn’t matter who has money as long as money is being earned.

    I imagine ticket sales provide a metric of how much audiences value your product (whether they need to see it now or can wait until it’s available digitally or whether it demands the premium theatrical, maybe IMAX or 3D, medium).

    We all know studios track their films awareness/demand quotients as well as exit polling (how effective the tracking is is another debate), so I say bullshit DP

  19. bulldog68 says:

    So going on the basis of tickets sold, one could argue that Madagascar 3 at $216m was more successful than Ted at $218m because it’s no doubt that packed into those tickets sold for Mad3 would be a ton of kiddie prices. And that would actually fly into face of the argument that R rated fare achieving this level of success is actually quite an accomplishment because of its limited audience.

    Additionally, the almost $200m difference between Avengers and Dark Knight would be greatly reduced in significance as Avengers had that 3D bump and I believe some Imax as well.

    Unless there is some master computer that automatically tabulates and collates tickets by age, type, whether 3D or Imax, matinee or any other permutation that affects ticket prices, grosses remain the most reliable and trackable source of reporting there is.

  20. Breedlove says:

    Stella- yeah there is something about Liam Neeson. He’s a real movie star. People want to watch him. I’m totally a fan of this late career action hero rebirth. I had an inordinately good time at TAKEN, and I remember thinking to myself, if this thing starred Nic Cage I would hate it, but there is something about Neeson kicking ass that is awesome.

    Also he should get an Oscar nomination for THE GREY, still the best movie of the year.

  21. StellaPD says:

    I love The Grey and Neeson is a great actor, but I despised Taken. It’s punishingly stupid. Sounds like Taken 2 is even worse.

    The Tall Man has been streaming on Netflix for a few weeks now.

  22. bulldog68 says:

    Sorry you didn’t like Taken Stella, but Taken 2 is one of the most lazy action movies you can find. Liam Neeson basically sleepwalked through the whole thing, and there were many leaps of logic.

    SPOILER ALERT

    One involving them driving into the US Embassy compound under gunfire, by the US Embassy, and not even being detained for questioning for at least a couple of hours if not days. The very next scene had Neeson back chasing the bad guys like literally no time had passed.

    Not too mention Maggie Grace being able to drive a stick shift Mercedes through the cobbled streets of Istanbul like fucking Bill Hickman even though she was still getting driving lessons.

    And imagine basically an army of bad guys who came with revenge on their mind and seemingly not being prepared for anything to go awry. Talk about rolling over and just dying.

    END SPOILER

    I remember posting that Liam was wasted in Battleship, but Famke Janssen was a colossal waste of talent here as well. They give her nothing to do but be the victim.

    At the end of the screening I was approached by a Fox guy and asked to give my thoughts. I don’t think I was very nice to him. Poor guy.

    Also at the screening there was the trailer for Die Hard 5. Talk about underwhelming.

    The Grey is still probably in my Top 5 for the year, along with End of Watch.

  23. SamLowry says:

    I’m just waiting for an exhibitor to put up a sign saying “Only scrubs watch movies before 6 pm.” Or “Want to watch a matinee? Fine. But after we take your money we’re required to wash our hands.”

  24. etguild2 says:

    @bulldog, wasn’t MAD3 in 3D? So it probably sold fewer tickets after all, though that’s a good illustration of your point. The better point is that MAD3 cost about three times as much as TED, so obviously it wasn’t as successful in the U.S. Worldwide, they’re about even.

    If you want to make the argument that tickets sold matters, just substitute it with the fact that big money movies made 25 years ago were much more profitable due to lower production and P&A costs. Revenue has not kept up with rising costs, despite stopgap measures like the DVD/Blu-Ray markets and expanding foreign box office. Eventually, we are going to have a crisis based on revenue, and we’ve already seen that with the failure of smaller studios and dependents in the last decade.

    The only times tickets sold should be a metric is for armchair comparisons of all-time grossers. For instance, it is obviously out of line to say AVENGERS was a more successful or bigger movie than GONE WITH THE WIND. Though if anyone were to make that argument, it would be DP.

  25. StellaPD says:

    That seems to be the consensus bulldog. I’ve noticed that a lot of people who liked the first one strongly dislike part 2, but is it really that much worse/different? To me it basically looks like the same movie, with a different location.

  26. matt says:

    Thoughts on the theory that black and white killed Frankenweenie? In light of it being a kids movie- the idea being that kids want to see flashy color movies and not black and white.

  27. Gus says:

    As a pretty hard core cineaste I cringe to say this but yes, the idea of a black and white kids’ animation film is such a non-starter to me. No idea why this seemed like the way to go.

  28. chris says:

    I loved “Frankenweenie” and think it looks great, but I agree about the b/w probably being offputting. The peculiar aspect of it is that it seems to indicate it’s a period movie, but it takes place in the present.

  29. bulldog68 says:

    With three daughters ages 11,9 & 7, they had minimal interest in Frankenweenie. And because they associate black & white with old stuff, they first thought it was an old cartoon.

    I make it a habit of going through movie trailers with them and gauging their responses, so it was very tepid for Frankenweenie, and higher for Hotel Transylvania. Of all the animated films coming down the pike, Croods seemed to register the highest. They already love that female character.

    Interestingly, the power of a good song can do wonders for a trailer. Legends was higher than Wreck it Ralph until the new Wreck it trailer included the tune Some Nights by Fun. Now they want to see it even more.

    I actually first started that this year with the two Snow White movies and Mirror Mirror registered higher with them 2 to 3.

  30. movielocke says:

    Frankenweenie was sort of cute but played to the AICN-nostalgia crowd (pretty small audience) rather than to kids. Sure they manage to reference Frankenstein, Godzilla, Gremlins and some rat-monster and vampire movies but it’s such a disjointed, slow and often boring film.

    Also Tim Burton has been sort of ruined for me by that MAD TV sketch “Tim Burton’s Secret Formula” the Danny Elfman stuff from that sketch is spot on to the tired/recycled/insipid Frankenweenie score. At one “dramatic” part of the film, Elfman’s score sounds EXACTLY like the parody, “deedly deedly deedly. Bum Bum umm bum. la la la la deedly deedly”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFzLRP8e4vE
    Genius! your best yet!

  31. David Poland says:

    What orifice is this coming out of? “It doesn’t matter who has money as long as money is being earned.’

    If you are quoting ticket sales as factual, you are quoting falsely. You don’t know. It is a very broad stat. And while it does matter to exhibitors how many people come through their theaters, it does not matter to the movie’s bottom line… at all.

    I would be happy to have detailed conversations about how many people are seeing movies in theaters. But 99% of the people who bring up Tickets Sold are using the stat falsely and lazily. I guess “means nothing” is also false. “Means almost nothing to almost everyone and nothing to anyone outside of exhibition and would only mean something if there was a significantly greater drop-off than we have seen in the last 40 years” would be more fair.

    Tickets Sold is one of those stats that feels like it means something. But when you get down to it, it means (see above). And as a foundation for claiming that theatrical is in trouble – oh the irony, the stat means something only to theater owners, but their promotion of it is being used by Dumb Media to attack theatrical – it is truly lazy, stupid shit.

    AND in case anyone was confused, the “30” on Hotel Trans was meant to be the %, not the #. And the film didn’t recover quite as well as I expected.

  32. cadavra says:

    I’m with Movielocke. I think FRANKENWEENIE is very much an “old Hollywood” movie: geared to adults but suitable for kids. I honestly don’t think color would’ve added much more to the gross; either you buy the concept or you don’t.

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