Friday Estimates by Sinister Klady
Well…
The good news, of a sort, is that Here Comes The Boom, a movie that Sony was not even screening for editorial consideration until Wednesday, tanked. It will be Kevin James’ worst opening as a lead. Maybe the movie has secret charms, as it is directed by Frank Coraci, who is arguably the most skilled director in the Sandler stable (The Wedding Singer, The Waterboy). But this apparent rip-off of half of the box office weak, but brilliant Warrior, didn’t do any better finding an audience.
Finding that audience is Sinister, a new Lionsgate horror movie, this one written and directed by an AICNer. Good, creepy ads. No idea if the movie is interesting or a floater, but it seems to be headed for The Screen Gems 20, which is what I call a solid horror movie start, driven almost exclusively by clever advertising and not word of mouth, which is the standard for these films (whether or not the movies were very cheap or more expensive). Screen Gems, Lionsgate, and others have shown that you can open these movies to just below or just over 20 if your marketing pops. So this is a win for Lionsgate… and might be a bigger win, depending on the numbers on the film.
Taken 2 is off 62%, which will probably be around 55% for the weekend… which is about right for this repeat. I have only seen the last 20 minutes of the film. I suspect that I got enough out of that to say that it’s quite familiar… which is a compliment, really. I wasn’t expecting King Lear. Team Besson keeps the action strong and there are some really good actors taking big, healthy bites of scenery. You could do worse, if that’s what you’re after.
Of course, you could do a lot better, which brings us to Argo. I was going to write that this is The Movie for people who have been asking you, “Is there anything out there worth watching?” But the truth is, I would recommend 7 of the top 10 movies this weekend, with specifics reservations for each film. So we are in a good moment for wide releases. But Argo is certainly the best and clearest choice for people over 16. And I expect this to be a very leggy movie. The frustration is, I’m sure, for WB and the Affleck Brain Trust is that this movie is getting a lot of LOVE from the media, BA’s track record is strong as a director, and still… not quite the Town opening numbers.
Look. This started as and is a Smokehouse movie (Clooney/Grant Heslov). These are not the kinds of movies that have a star, like Affleck, running across roofs in Tehran, rolling and machine gunning down the Ayatollah before making a pithy comment. And thank God. But the numbers have been “disappointing” on all of these films. Good Night, And Good Luck did well against costs, but had just one $3m weekend… and just barely. The Ides of March opened to $10.5 with Clooney, and Gosling coming off of his biggest commercial hit. Even Michael Clayton never got to $50m domestic.
I’m just saying… much as I just wrote about expectations on horror movies… these releases have their own standards. Yes, the aspiration is for more. And if this is a $16m 3-day, I’m pretty sure Argo will end up over $50m domestic… perhaps as high as $65m. It’s a strong movie and will play strongly into weekends 3 and 4 and 5, as older people take a while to come out. But putting the real standard – profitability – aside as the primary focus, these are the movies we who love movies all should be out there supporting and not whining when they are not massive hits.
The other newbie is Seven Psychopaths, from the great Martin McDonagh. Tough movie to sell. It will be more than half way to In Bruges‘ domestic total by the end of this weekend. This too may have a glass ceiling. It’s complex, very dark, smart, funny, violent, brash storytelling. Terrific movie. But when all you can really hook into for the marketing pitch is, “Look… we put some of your favorite oddballs in a movie,” you rarely see a success by studio-release standards. On a film like The Expendables, the secret was to make an action movie you could sell even without all those veteran action stars… and then the stars add more. But not only can’t you explain Seven Psychopaths in 25 words or less… if you love movies, you don’t want to. If you liked/loved Looper, you are pretty sure to like/love this film. But nto a very good marketing tag… especially when the comparative movie is still in theaters competing with you.
Just look at the Top Ten. Affleck, Tartakovsky, Rian Johnson, Burton, McDonagh, Stephen Chbosky. A lot of frickin’ talent there. Movie culture is not only NOT dead… it’s in some really good hands… whether they got there as novelist/directors or coming in late to an Adam Snadler animated film, or if it was their childhood dream project. A good time to go to the movies if you are a true movie omnivore whose only real standard is “good.”
As feared, Summit continues to platform “Wallflower” to death.
What a shame.
At this rate, it’ll never live up to its b.o. potential.
My prediction that its release would be as bungled–in the exact same fashion–as “It’s Kind of a Funny Story” two years ago has sadly come true.
Does anyone really believe that CBS will widen “7 Psychopaths” on the 26th–the same day that four, count ’em, films are already slated for wide release bows–after this underwhelming opening?
I’m still puzzled as to why CBS didn’t open “Psycho” as wide as they did “The Words” last month.
On paper, “Psycho” was definitely the more commercial proposition.
Possibly because of the massive glut of films out at the box office? 4 wide releases this weekend, plus ATLAS, plus a 500-theatre expansion for PERKS just begs the question, why?
Why in the world is Sony releasing 4 films in the last 5 weeks? I don’t care if one is Tristar, one is Screen Gems, etc. It’s ridiculous to have BOOM competing with TRANSYLVANIA and LOOPER matching up with RES 5.
And Summit, which has had arguably the worst year a studio could possibly have had until now, is platforming PERKS at the same time as it releases SINISTER and ALEX CROSS. Why?
As for SEVEN PSYCHOPATHS, this is CBS Films’ last release of the year. Are they looking to shutter the division and just dump whatever they have left? This was not the right weekend to release this movie. Next weekend would have been better.
I’d actually recommend 8 of the top 10 this weekend with the caveat I haven’t seen ARGO or LOOPER
IMPORTANT QUESTION TO EVERYONE…
Was no one bothered by Ben Affleck playing a Latino in Argo?
If he played a real-life African-American people would be going mad, but the fact that Latinos are such a non-issue is truly saddening to me.
does it really matter how many movies a studio releases even if the target is a different group of people …
theatres need to make more double deals that make sense –
like put Frankenweenie and Hotel Transylvania for a
reduced ticket price and put them 10 minutes apart .
people might stick around and watch both … same thing
goes for Sinster and PA4 …
every week there are dozen new movies out – so there is limited time and money people have … so unlimited movie pass is still a great idea for every theatre. money doesn’t become an issue so its time …time to rush out and watch the limited releases that will stick around for a few weeks and then go away .
who decides which films get more times to play per day ? theatre owners or movie studios ? Taken 2 has a RT score of 21% and yet gets played 5 times a day .. beasts of the southern wild has RT score of 86% gets played twice a day.
if your movie doesn’t get a RT score of 50% or higher during the first week – your movie is kicked out of theatre and gone directly to dvd or itunes. simple and it might work. ..plus movie critics would actually matter
way more.
As a Mexican-American, I have no problem with Affleck’s portrayal of a Hispanic. In fact, that hair helps sell it. His complexion is consistent with a light-skinned Latino. This is an old (and rather pointless) argument.
Sinister ranks as one the most unscary movies I have ever seen. I’m very surprised that it seems to be holding this well over the weekend and word of mouth did not tank it. Of all the recent exorcism and possession movies that have come down the pike in recent years, this ranks as the most magnanimous snoozefest of the bunch. It did not even rise to the level of cheap thrills.
I thought “Sinister” was mighty effective. Modest, creepy, psychological rather than gory (although there’s some), smart.
There were 25 film reviews in yesterday’s NYT.
Not surprisingly–since it apparently wasn’t screened anywhere in advance–none of them were of “Atlas Shrugged 2.”
What’s odd is there wasn’t even the promise of an “Atlas 2” review at a later date; de rigueur for movies that open cold in the NY metro area.
Considering the Times’ relentless efforts to cover everything film-related, and their deserved reputation as the “newspaper of record,” it does seem odd they’re choosing to ignore a major-ish release (no matter how artistically dubious it may look on paper).
I think the last time the Times conspicuously snubbed a movie was last October.
In that case, they didn’t get around to running their review until 10-11 days after its opening.
That film?
“Atlas Shrugged, Part I.”
And this is the same NYT that published an opening day review of “2016.”
I caught Seven Psychopaths, great trailer, very very smart to hide the entire conceit of the movie is an exhausting and pathetic riff on Adaptation. It felt more sad than funny, the very embodiment of trying too hard. The script is clever and it has a handful of good laughs, but this is not the genius of In Bruges, not even close, this has all the stinky hallmarks of writers block.
“this one written and directed by an AICNer” – just co-written.
Interesting Aaron Aradillas, thanks for answering the question.
I thought it’d be a particularly touchy subject for Mexican-Americans, but I guess I was wrong.
At least Matt Damon isn’t playing Chavez in Diego Luna’s movie next year, right?
Yes, at least Damon isn’t playing Chavez in the Diego Luna movie. That is correct.
The entire motion picture industry has become a clique of circle jerks and no amount of hard sell, name-checking, Peter Travers pullquotes or “Academy Award Winner” will help things.
@movieman: “Atlas Shrugged: Part I” opened in April 2011. I had plans to see Part II until I came across the trailer online.
I’m hoping the DGA and WGA and Unions stop this horrible unfair practice of giving people so-called “credits” on films when we know they’re just another form of branding. In the future, all films will be untitled and uncredited.