Friday Estimates by RIPK
So… what to make of this weekend…
Is The Conjuring a shock? Not so much. The Purge, Evil Dead, The Devil Inside. This is a really good open, but not a shocking one. If there is a surprise, it’s that WB has cracked the marketing formula on horror. This will be their biggest horror opening ever after years of trying with Joel Silver and never opening to as much as $20m.
Turbo can’t be a thrill for Fox or DWA. It’s a little better than half what The Croods opened to… and that film is only a hit thanks to foreign. My sense is that it is selling too young for Fox’s own good. And that as the third new animated film in five weeks, it needed to get lucky. This is also a reason to be suspect of DWA’s 3-films-a-year upturn next year. The market can expand, but it gets riskier the more you saturate.
Despicable Me 2 is holding solid with a 45% Friday drop and should pass $275m domestic this weekend. Grown Ups 2 is down an unremarkable 61% against opening day.
RED 2 is a bit if a disappointment. It’s a better movie than the original, which was pretty leggy. But this opening is actually behind the first, not an improvement as is currently the expected sequel trend. Legs may work here too, as the older characters and their older audiences are slower to get to the multiplex. (Maybe the NYT can rethink their story on the subject of aging action talent.)
No happy news for Pacific Rim, off 68% Friday-to-Friday.
And, of course, RIPD, which is pretty much DOA. OMFG.
It’s a big opening weekend for docs, with two of the most beloved of the year arriving at once. Blackfish, perhaps with the help of Sea World, is the top fish, looking at $14k per on 4, while The Act of Killing will be hoping for 10k per on 3. Another festival fave, Computer Chess, debuts to about $4000 per on 2. Only God Forgives opens to a modest $3500 or so per for the weekend on 75 screens… which reminds me of how problematic VOD is in building tension for theatrical. For that specialized audience, VOD is still cheaper than theatrical and it’s become easy to decide not to show up at the movies. Personally, I would hate to see this film the first time on my big TV… so happy I got to see it in a nice, big theater.
Ouch! Here’s hoping Pacific Rim’s total picks up. Saw it yesterday and it was a lotta fun. Completely silly, but fun.
Weinstein should have at least give the Refn/Gosling movie the same-sized theatrical launch they gave the equally (commercially) problematic “Killing Them Softly” last fall.
I still can’t figure out what the deal is with their Radius shingle. Aren’t they all supposed to be VOD simultaneous w/ theatrical? Until this summer, every previous Radius title (“The Details,” “Bachelorette,” “Erased,” etc.) were available to watch on Amazon.com while playing in theaters. But “20 Feet to Stardom” and “Only God…” weren’t/aren’t.
I know that “Only” is apparently available on some cable outlets (not
mine) and thru iTunes. But I really, really don’t want to watch it on my laptop or–“God” forbid–iPhone. And naturally the closest theater showing it is 175 miles (round trip) away. I’m guessing “Lovelace” will prove to be equally elusive next month, alas.
Glad to see I was wrong about “Despicable Me 2” underperforming. It’s really nothing special, but still marginally better than Pixar’s “Monsters” sequel.
I still think “Red 2” should have been held till fall, though it could prove to be as leggy as the original. Caught it yesterday afternoon and was pleasantly surprised. (The mostly senior crowd ate it up.) Even more than the mildly overrated “Red 1,” it’s an amiable throwback to the sort of glossy baubles we saw a lot more of back in the ’60s–usually directed by Peter Hunt journeyman types, and frequently starring Audrey Hepburn.
Before Dreamworks commits to releasing three animated movies a year, perhaps they should commit to successfully releasing two…the release date is somewhat baffling though with only two animated films scheduled for the Fourth Quarter, and one of them a Relativity flick…a Christmas release may have gotten more traction.
Kind of surprised/disappointed that The Way, Way Back hasn’t really taken off yet. A great little movie that’s the perfect adult (and teen) film to counteract this summers’ disappointing tentpoles, but it just seems to be doing good but not great. Really thought it could break out a la Little Miss Sunshine…maybe it still will, but it seems that it’s already passed off some of it’s indie/critical darling buzz to Frutivale Station.
Well it looks as if true Warner/DC are going for broke.Looks like they want to ride out the Comic craze to the max(Reportedly)Supes/Batman same film 2015—-Flash 2016—–Justice 2017.It’s the really is “The End” of movies
I will say PACIFIC RIM should have been 90 minutes. This is the time span a kaiju/robot film needs and you’d be lefting wanting more. And that’s also about 50 million plus less spent. If LONE RANGER was 90 minutes and cost 75-100 million, it would be considered a mid hit. This is the “Roadshow Musicals” lesson of the 60’s the studios ignore.
Although i haven’t seen it you are probaly right.There usually aren’t 90 minute Tentpoles usually.
“Well it looks as if true Warner/DC are going for broke.Looks like they want to ride out the Comic craze to the max”
My head hurts
7/26/2013-The Wolverine
8/16/2013-Kick Ass 2
11/18/2013-Thor 2
1/24/2014-I, Frankenstein
3/7/2014-300 II
4/14/2014-Captain America 2
5/2/2014-Amazing Spiderman 2
5/23/2014-X:Men 5
6/6/1024-Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Reboot
8/1/2014-Guardians of the Galaxy
8/22/2014-Sin City 2
11/7/2014-Big Hero 6
11/14/2014-Secret Service
3/6/2015-Fantastic Four Reboot
5/1/2015-The Avengers 2
11/6/2015-Ant-Man
2015 TBD- Man of Steel 2/Batman
2015?-X: Force
2015: Star Wars Episode 7 (not a comic but still)
2016: Star Wars spin-off film, The Flash, at least two Marvel films, Amazing Spider Man 3…..Ahhh!
So much for word of mouth saving Pacific Rim. No matter how loudly one quadrant screamed it’s praises, the others still didn’t care.
ET. I like your list. With 10+ comic adaptations coming a year, there will be casualties. Malaise will eventually set in. I think everything is good through 2015. In one mega summer you get Star Wars, Avengers, and Batman/Superman. But i think theres only so much money to go around. so here’s what im thinking: worldwide box office comic book throwdown:
7/26/2013-The Wolverine $325 million
8/16/2013-Kick Ass 2 – $180 million
11/18/2013-Thor 2 – $400 million
1/24/2014-I, Frankenstein – $Eight Dollars
3/7/2014-300 II – $180 million
4/14/2014-Captain America 2 – $400 million
5/2/2014-Amazing Spiderman 2 – $750 million
5/23/2014-X:Men 5 – $475 million
6/6/1024-Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Reboot $250 million dollars
8/1/2014-Guardians of the Galaxy – $325 million dollars
8/22/2014-Sin City 2 – $130 million dollars
11/7/2014-Big Hero 6 – $260 million dollars
11/14/2014-Secret Service – $130 million dollars
3/6/2015-Fantastic Four Reboot – $275 million dollars
5/1/2015-The Avengers 2 – EIGHT BILLION DOLLARS
11/6/2015-Ant-Man – $250 million dollars
2015 TBD- Man of Steel 2/Batman $1 billion
2015?-X: Force – $250 million dollars
2015: Star Wars Episode 7 (not a comic but still) – $1 billion
The problem with the Avengers is that it has upped the ante so much that the ancillaries will probably end up dragging everything down. Iron Man 3 is a fluke. Thor 2 should bring things back down to Earth with the Marvel box office. Stuff like Secret Service, X-Force, FF Reboot, these films are going to be the ones that struggle to profit because Avengers, Batman/Superman, and X-Men film with EVERYBODY just gets all the attention.
The worst thing Marvel could do is put every hero under one umbrella. That scenario where Wolverine and Spiderman are hanging around with the Avengers. You’d make a quick buck, but everything else would seem pedestrian in comparison. These super-hero team ups could make it difficult for the solo films to do the ridiculous numbers the studios would like to see.
So far it’s rumor but by THR – JL F and LA Times – S/B
Id be afraid to even take a stab at that anghus. THOR, for instance, could do much better given that there’s no proven worldwide earner this November internationally (the first in 6 years without Twilight, Potter or Bond)…or “Hunger Games” could really take off offshore and fill that void. Too many variables for me
My general guess is things start to hit a wall at the end of next summer…”Guardians” may not take, and “Sin City 2” almost certainly won’t, and then I agree you’ll start to see a real downward drift for secondary properties…
Guardians is going to be huge. The raccoon will make it so. Also, Thor should do about 800m. If it’s a fantastic movie? It could pull close to a 1b. Do not doubt the love of the first Thor from most people outside of this blog.
The wonderful MARVEL films aside, Warners can swing for the fences, but that movie depends on who is playing Bats. I could give a shit about DC films, but won’t freak out about it.
Finally, the masses were too busy enjoying their pablum to enjoy Pacific Rim. How anyone can pay to see a fucking Sandler film is mystifying.
I agree that Thor 2 is a much bigger property than it might seem. Last one did $450M WW and seems primed for a similar jump to Iron Man after being featured so heavily in the Avengers (and streaming video sites). I could see it doing over $800M WW.
Iron Man showing 100% growth from film to film is one of the most stunning BO stats of all time in my opinion. But I still can’t decide whether its increasing by 100% is more surprising than its doing 20% less than Avengers. Which stat is weirder?
I have to wonder if putting Batman and Superman together isn’t an implicit admission that MOS’ box office was not what WB had hoped for.
Jack:
“So far it’s rumor but by THR – JL F and LA Times – S/B”
Even spelling out most of these abbreviations, I still can’t parse this comment. “So far it’s rumor but by The Hollywood Reporter – Justice League F and Los Angeles Times – Superman/Batman”?
The Hollywood Reporter – Justice League Flash and Los Angeles Times Superman/Batman which was just confirmed by Zack Snyder Superman/Batman Yes Snyder will be doing Supes and the Bat instead of Nolan who knows how to make a superhero movie.
The Thor 2 bet is a total wild card. I agree you could see an exponential Marvel bump like Iron Man 3. But im betting with my gut here. Same with Guardians. These are conservative bets based on what i think will be some eventual retraction of the brand. I might be playing that chip way early.
I was pretty good on a lot of Summer picks this year, except for Man of Steel which i put at 500 million domestic. It wsn’t the across the board crowd pleaser i expected and the box office reflected that.
” But im betting with my gut here.”
Your gut said that nobody would care about IRON MAN, CAPTAIN AMERICA, THOR and THE AVENGERS:]
Cg, you are probably correct. WB just keep putting themselves in bad situations. Now, they are putting Bats with Supes in order to get a better gross, but will it gross more? Unless Bats is played by Bale… meh.
I know it’s always a mistake to use anecdotal evidence, but I’m someone who skipped Man of Steel but would go see a Snyder Superman vs. Batman movie. I’ve never missed a Batman movie yet, and I wouldn’t miss that one, no matter who is playing Batman (still hoping for JGL though).
I think it’s a smart play. Warner Brothers obviously doesn’t have their act together like Marvel, so they’re trying a different formula. Start with Superman. Add their only read box office draw – Batman. Hope that does well and then add other characters. A stand-alone Flash movie will probably bomb, though. The real question is if they can pull off anything after Justice League, once they don’t have Batman to put in the individual movies.
“Your gut said that nobody would care about IRON MAN, CAPTAIN AMERICA, THOR and THE AVENGERS:]”
Nope. Wrong guy. I knew Avengers would be huge. I told Dave i thought his estimates on Captain America and Thor were both low when he was putting them in the 250-300 million worldwide range.
Ive always bought into Marvel movies, but i think theres a saturation point. The one thing ET is right about is that there is a ridiculous amount of similar programming in the next few years and only so many dollars to distribute.
Youre going to have things like Trek and GI Joe that have a very defined cap.
having a batman/superman movie without the third corner of the holy trinity – wonder woman – IS RETARDED. fucking dipshits
Leahnz, if WB knew what they were doing, Wonder Woman would be the marketing draw for a Justice League movie that follows Bats vs. Supes. But they don’t.
Everyone already thinks I’m easily amused and enjoy any and every movie that runs through a digital projector, but…
I didn’t think RIPD was that bad. Kind of enjoyed it.
Also persist in thinking Ryan Reynolds gets WAY too much shit. He’s a good actor, I don’t think “regular” people dislike him as much as geeks and older dudes do, he can carry a movie. Seems like a pile-on.
Leahnz: There’s actually a precedent for a Batman/Superman movie without Wonder Woman. Indeed, you could make a stronger case that Robin, not Wonder Woman, should be in the mix.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World%27s_Finest_Comics
Safe to say the X:Men panel at Comic-Con is the most remarkable assemblage of talent I’ve ever seen in one place for a junket-type event:
https://twitter.com/BryanSinger/status/358752198794031104/photo/1
Mike: maybe boy’s club WB is scared ww’s vagina is going to eat them alive or something – and blaming female leads for losing money is looking all the more flimsy given the big male-protagonist-led recent flops, i look forward to the announcement that no more movies with male leads will be produced (in other words, i agree with you)
Joe: shut up! haha – enough with the all-boy’s club, sick of it, and there’s far more precedent for WW in the bats/ww/supes holy trinity, but i’m sure you’re right, Robin will get in there before any girl with cooties — even ANT-MAN is getting a movie before the only major earthly superhero with superhuman powers, it’s a joke
re: Ryan reynolds, he feels to me like a competent, likeable comedic tv actor that somebody decided was going to be a moviestar, dammit! and they’re not going to quit trying… apart from a few little comfort-zone movies like ‘definitely/maybe’ and the one with bullock what I can’t remember what it’s called, it’s not that reynolds really stinks but he’s just not up to the task; i was watching ‘safe house’ the other night where he’s playing in the pool with real deal talent the likes of denzel – a seemingly endless deep well of solid, convincing perfs – farmiga, gleeson, shephard etc, he manages to keep his head above/tread water but his soulful puppydog face and limited range only goes so far, i always wonder what an actor with real chops could do to lift the drama to a higher level.
Oddly, I thought Reynolds was better than Denzel in SAFE HOUSE. At least he came to play… I like the movie and LOVE Denzel, but he’s kinda coasting in Safe House.
Reynolds was very good in The Nines. And Waiting is one of the funniest movies ever made.
Leahnz: What I meant was, there’s a long tradition of a Batman/Superman team-up, thanks to World’s Finest Comics. Woman Woman, as I recall, never figured into that tradition. So I’m not surprised to see she wouldn’t be in the next DC movie.
Quit your BS, LexG. You and I both know why you like Ryan Reynolds.
http://www.movingpictureshow.com/archives/mpsNatLampoonVan.htm
no worries Joe, i knew what you meant (and obviously was just kidding saying ‘shut up’, or hopefully obviously!)
I’ve never had a problem w/ RR. In fact, I’ve counted myself as a fan since “National Lampoon’s Van Wilder.” It’s his recent (w/ the exception of “Safe House”) choices that stink.
Not even the almighty, late ’80s-era Cruise could have salvaged DOA clunkers like “R.I.P.D.,” “The Change-Up” and “The Green Lantern.”
The question is: will his recent string of flops permanently derail his screen career, potentially sending him to the friendlier, definitely more forgiving waters of television? Or can be rebound w/ a palpable hit?
The funny thing is: I think the first comic books I read back in the day were issues of World’s Finest. Seriously. Way before I got individual Batman or Superman titles, that title was my intro to comic books. So maybe that’s why an “all boys club” concept doesn’t faze me. In fact — and, again, I’m dealing with less-than-fresh memories of long ago — I don’t remember Wonder Woman as part of any “holy trinity.” Sure, she had her own book. But so did The Flash, Green Lantern and The Atom. Truth to tell, I remember her primarily as a second-string character — though above third-stringers like Aquaman, Green Arrow and John Jones The Manhunter from Mars.
Movieman: That’s the funny thing about TV: It’s a medium where some actors can find the stardom that always eluded them in features. I suppose you could write a book — or at least a doctoral dissertation — about which sort of charisma works best in which medium. And of course, luck — finding the write vehicle, the perfectly complementary co-stars, etc. — has a lot to do with it. But whether you’re talking about dudes like David Janssen — a TV icon who couldn’t start a movie career to save his life — or, more recently, guys like Mark Harmon and Chris O’Donnell, there definitely are some talents that come off best on the home screen. Maybe Ryan Reynolds is one of them, and there’s no disgrace in that.
And as many have already pointed out, Joe, much of the best material for actors these days can be found in the realms of episodic television (cable and even network). I hope Reynolds (and/or his management team) can figure out where he’d be a more comfortable fit because I’d hate to lose the guy altogether. He’s always been an extremely likable presence.
Well, I managed to find a friend whose cable company offered “Only God Forgives” as a VOD option, and got to see it Saturday nite.
For a movie with such a minimalist plot, did it really have to be so…confusing?
(Quasi spoiler alert.) I’m still trying to figure out what the badass Thai cop had to do w/ Gosling’s pervo older brother. And did the ending have to be so…opaque (and, yeah, unsatisfying)?
As purely an exercise in style, it’s a dazzler. Refn continues to shoot Gosling like von Sternberg filmed Dietrich. But even as someone who generally sides w/ style over substance (and who placed “Drive” on their 2011 10-best list), I still found the end result somewhat lacking.
If “Upstream Color” had the feel of David Lynch directing a “Terrence Malick Movie,” “OGF” feels a lot like Lynch doing his variation on a Michael Mann film. And “UC” was just a lot more compelling.
I still think Weinstein should have given it at least as wide a theatrical bow as “Killing Them Softly.”
It’s a close contest as to which movie is less “commercial” and/or audience-friendly. But the Dominik is definitely the stronger film overall.