Friday Estimates by Failed Avengers Pursuit Klady
(NOTE: Avengers: Age of Ultron‘s drop from last Friday’s preview-included number is 74%. The estimated drop above is based on a clean Friday number of $57.8 million.)
Going to keep it brief. A:AoU is doing great… not as great as the Friday matinee screeching ignoramuses suggest. A strong hold still puts it closer to $75m than $85m. But maybe they all think the word of mouth on the film is great and that there was $10m in lost revenue last weekend that is going to appear this weekend. Anything is possible. More likely… $75m… which is nothing to sneeze at… but isn’t the second biggest weekend ever. It’s #3. Boo-hoo. The reporting of numbers should not be an exercise in marketing… let the marketers do the advertising after the facts roll out.
Hot Pursuit is not a hit… but it’s not a carwreck, either… well, not this weekend, at least. Last summer, movies got into the 40s and 50s from this kind of launch. But I don’t think this one will have great legs, in spite of the great legs in the film (ha ha sexist fun ha). There is no indication that Reese Witherspoon has international muscle either, plus it is a comedy based on the idea of Southern vs Colombian, so I wouldn’t expect it to translate, simply meaning… no help there.
Ex Machina is taking its next big step, expanding from 1279 screens to 2004. The result on Friday was a 29% uptick, which is good. Of course, last weekend was depressed by the Avengers opening, so it’s a bit tricky to read the uptick. The Friday estimate, though up, is still well off the first Friday of expansion on the film. Still, a big success for A24, likely passing their previous #1 all-time, Spring Breakers, by the end of tonight.
The only new indie expected to get close to $10k per screen is the Chinese The Left Ear.
Disney/Marvel is going to probably make mad profit on Avengers 2 nobody is disputing that….it’s all about ego at this point. The numbers are great but just like with the last Hunger Games, they’re not in the right trajectory – I’m actually kind of surprised it had this big of a drop with such minimal competition. Man of Steel got a lot of negative press for its first Friday drop and this was just as big….and Man of Steel had a $150 million of competition its second weekend from two big openings.
Right now, it’s already tracking behind The Dark Knight – which was seven years ago and had no 3D surcharges – and just ahead of The Dark Knight Rises and Iron Man 3. Iron Man 3 partially dropped off because of the mixed reception and really intense competition its first month while TDKR also had a mixed reception but virtually no competition for several weeks after it opened…..so I’m guessing it finishes somewhere between the two, probably around $425 million domestic.
Those are really good numbers but like I said with regards to ego…..when your SECOND Avengers movie with two years of successful buildup finishes below the THIRD Batman movie which nobody (except me apparently) can now admit that they liked, that’s a slight embarrassment to Marvel. Not that they’re really crying with those kind of numbers.
Not really sure if the Mad Max/Picture Perfect combo next weekend is going to hurt things too much for AAOU except for overseas….I can see ‘Max making a big dent in those Asian and European markets. I gotta wonder what’s going on at the marketing department of Disney right now – they pushed HARD last year several weeks after opening to keep the numbers up for ‘Guardians and ‘Winter Soldier but are they really going to do that again at the expense of Tomorrowland??? And they have to move on towards pushing Ant-Man in just over two months too…..
I think the bigger embarrassment would be if Furious 7 is able to keep its worldwide lead over Avengers 2: right now F7 is headed towards $1.5 billion worldwide even if the rest of the world collapses like the domestic grosses are right now. Avengers 2 is probably going to be about $600 million away from that milestone after this weekend and half of that ground should easily be made up by China, so I have to figure it will make it but it will close.
I think the bigger question is what does this all mean for next year – are they going to change course at all with Cap 3? I’m guessing they push a much happier, funnier marketing campaign this time around which could be a BIT tricky given the subject matter automatically lends itself to a darker approach.
As for DC, I think they probably stay the course at least with regards to marketing for their duo of BVS and Suicide Squad: make it all about BATMAN…JOKER…BATMAN…JOKER, use your heavy hitters and keep pushing the “darkness” angle as long as you have some pedigree or appearance of quality behind it. I can remember back in 2008 thinking with all of those early teasers and posters for TDK that Warners was going to push away the mass audience: people forget just how dark and creepy some of that imagery was with the one teaser poster making it look like the Joker was smearing blood on a translucent window and the final poster showing a building on fire…..but it worked in spades, it ended up being of the best marketing campaigns I can remember.
Marvel kind of tried that approach initially with their campaign for ‘Ultron and I really loved that first teaser trailer with the pounding music, Banner shivering in a corner, usage of the Pinocchio song, etc……but I guess they left some money on the table with that approach, people don’t go to Marvel blockbusters to see the heroes in turmoil, they want quips and “Hooked on a Feeling” playing in the background. You have to play to your strengths.
Geoff works for WB–there’s no doubt. Only a WB employee could come up with such an absurd hot take.
No disputing that “Hot Pursuit” is a hot mess. I think there were more laughs in Reese’s “Wild” (which definitely wasn’t a comedy).
But I’m still kind of stunned that it opened so poorly. This is the sort of lowbrow, critic-proof comedy that used to be pretty dependable at the box office.
And, wow, did IFC misjudge the mainstream appeal of “The D Train”! Or maybe not since the break–while huge by IFC’s usual standards–was still pretty minuscule by 21st century multiplex standards.
They could have probably reached the same domestic cume by going the traditional IFC platform route.
It just would have taken longer.
But now it has the patina of a commercial flop rather than the modest indie hit it might have been.
Was there another fight last night?
Sure Warren I work for WB, I must be one of those “plants” I keep hearing about on the interweb….because only a true insider would know that it benefits Warner Bros. to emphasize Batman in their marketing campaign. And sure, I’m sure that Marvel/Disney was planning all along that the Avengers sequel would have this much of a domestic dropoff – that must be my anti-Marvel bias coming through! 😉
The reporting of numbers should not be an exercise in marketing… let the marketers do the advertising after the facts roll out.
Well the issue there is that the folks getting numbers are doing so from Disney who has been putting on a full spin cycle ever since Thursday preview numbers were released.
The percentage ULTRON dailies have been better than the original overall since last Saturday, including today’s daily so the snark is not only incomprehensible, its disingenuous. Re: the competition tracking, it’s stronger next weekend than AVENGERS had in weekend 3, but weaker in 4 and 5.
Also, the worldwide is already going to be over $800 million through Sunday without Chinese/international figures from this weekend; AKA it’ll probably be at $1 billion in 24 hours. If they really expect $300 million in China, which they’ve been vocal about, FURIOUS is toast.
EtGuild2, how it is disingenuous? The daily grosses for Part 2 have been well below Part 1, see the link below:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=topsuperhero.htm
You’re looking at a minimum of a 25% drop-off domestically from the first one, which is in the neighborhood of the same drop-off Transformers 4 saw last summer. You can’t tell me that the folks at Disney haven’t been caught a little off-guard by all of this – even last Saturday afternoon, they were confidently predicting $200 million for the weekend which they didn’t reach…..and they were out in force on Sunday/Monday talking about the impact of the fight on Saturday night.
These are fantastic numbers for just about ANY other film except the sequel to Avengers…..or Avatar. Watch Fox go through this same thing in December of 2017, made all the more worse with comparisons to Star Wars VII in the same release slot two years prior.
Geoff I actually wasn’t responding to you…I was annoyed with Jerry’s snarky quip when the movie has actually outperformed the original on a percentage (<key word) basis since last Saturday. It just hasn't bounced back, which you'd have to be crazy to think was ever going to happen given it's an inferior sequel. That's not the way box office works with these films.
But no, I don't think the "these are fantastic" numbers needs any qualifiers. This would be a huge win for an AVATAR sequel, or STAR WARS. ULTRON just isn't quite as good as the first, I think Disney ran enough test screenings to realize that, as pretty much 95% of the people who've seen it will agree on…this isn't IRON MAN 3 where you had a polarizing reaction from casual fans and purists thanks to a must-see hook, or CAP 2 which was widely (for some reason) considered superior. Short of having Chris Evans die in a car wreck or Downey OD on pills, there was going to be a MOCKINGJAY/TDKR/SPIDEY-2 style drop off.
EtGuild2:
“when the movie has actually outperformed the original on a percentage (<key word) basis since last Saturday."
Where are you getting that information? It's not true.
“THIRD Batman movie which nobody (except me apparently) can now admit that they liked”
I’ve always liked the movie. After repeat viewings I think it is the best of the trilogy.
Genuine question — what’s the percentage basis A2 beats A1.
I’m simply noticing much lower grosses. And a bigger week 2 drop that A1.
Am I wrong? Did A2 hold better than a1 ?
Jerry I’m told that it is about 17% (Domestic) overall after this weekend. it is reportedly going to make it to $310 Mill this weekend around there.if so it will have made about 70 Million less (Counting Inflation) than AV1 at the same period of days.
“Where are you getting that information? It’s not true.”
Look at the Rentrak numbers this morning, and you’ll see less percentage degradation, or on par degradation since last Saturday. This isn’t rocket science.
““THIRD Batman movie which nobody (except me apparently) can now admit that they liked”
I’ve always liked the movie. After repeat viewings I think it is the best of the trilogy.””
THE DARK KNIGHT RISES is one of my favorite films of the decade. It’s not a movie for plot nitpickers, but its emotional/thematic impact was massive for me.
This is probably a question for next weekend, but I wonder how well will Mad Max Fury Road perform worldwide. I think it will be the best movie of summer 2015 (and its status will grow with the years) but box office has nothing to do with quality. Will if affect Avengers 2’s performance?
Variety’s now saying 2nd weekend is 75-80, so DP was right. That puts A2 in a 60% drop while A1 held 50% on its second weekend.
“The reporting of numbers should not be an exercise in marketing…”
Or an exercise in ego.
This whole thread is what’s wrong with the film industry today.
“They only made 2.1 billion – it could have been 2.3 billion.”
Et, I’m not seeing the same thing you are. Not sure what else to say.
Me neither. I think it’s abundantly clear that aside from a momentous drop from last Saturday, the film hasn’t ceded anymore statistical ground; aka it’s performing just like AVENGERS, TDKR or IRON MAN 3. I guess people were actually expecting an inferior fanboy sequel to become the 3rd grossing film of all-time.
I’m so confused. How is a 60 percent drop the same as a 50 percent drop?
But no its not performing like Avengers. It opened smaller and had a bigger second weekend drop. The word “like” does not come to mind.
It opened bigger than TDK and after the second weekend is already grossing less. Again the word “like” doesn’t come to mind. It can’t be not matching up to TDK, and be matching up to Avengers when TDK itself didn’t match up to Avengers.
It opened bigger than TDKR and may not match it’s overall domestic gross.
Don’t just say “Look at the Rentrak numbers “, knowing full well many of us have no access to Rentrak. Do some cutting and pasting to prove your point. Isn’t it enough that Obama still has these death panels and is planning to invade Texas.
Actually no Bulldog; it opened bigger opening day. It’s performing just like all MARVEL or DC sequels that don’t get kicked in the ass like SPIDEY 3; aside from last Saturday’s bigger than expected drop. That’s the only significant percentage difference between the two movies on a daily head-to-head basis.
I must be delusional.
First 3 days: Daily average
Avengers $207m $69m
TDK $158m $53m
TDKR $160m $54m
Ultron: $191m $64m
Next 4 Days:
Mon-Thur Daily Ave
Avengers $63m $21m
TDK $80m $27m
TDKR $65m $22m
Ultron $43m $12m
Ultron lost 84% of its audience from $50m Sunday to $8m on Thursday. TDKR lost 65% from $40m Sunday to a $13m Thursday. How is this similar?
Uh sorry, but Ultron made 13 million every day last week, so your math is already off thanks to that FACT.
Oh yeah, Geoff, please keep hyping those DC movies, because the Suicide Squad may be a good movie, but fuck their grim dark bullshit. It’s fucking tiresome.
One more thing: Ultron is awesome, because he decides to end us all with an extinction level event. If you think that plan is dumb, then you really are missing how hilariously villainous is truly is.
You are right JS. My math is off. I divided the weekly numbers by three instead of four, so Ultron’s actual average would be just shy of $11m. It did $13m Mon & Tue and $9.4m and $8.6m on Wed and Thur, according to Mojo.
I’m not pulling numbers out of my ass. If Mojo is wrong, then take it up with Mojo, but those are numbers everyone uses.
So that $13m everyday last week is bullshit.
Bulldog; weekday dailies in May and July aren’t going to be the same because July occurs in the summer. Hence its better to even it out through the week if you’re using July. You’re just going to have to trust me or not when I say ULTRON isn’t showing the type of depreciation to fall below TDNR because it’s on a slope aside from one day. Is it possible MAD MAX blows the hinges off tracking that’s stagnated over the last week? Yes. But at of now, $475 million is highly highly likely.
And before someone says different, these numbers are an unmitigated success story. The only negatives are by comparisons to other movies. its own prequel, and now falling a bit behind TDK. This is still all money in the bank, and a lot of it at that.
Yes I think Marvel was hoping for more domestically akin to the prequel, but don’t we all hope for more money.
I don’t understand how Saturday is the only difference?
It looks like massive drops compared to the last one
Unless “rentrak” is reporting an extra 59 million the rest of us don’t see, it looks like a big fall off to me.
But I’m happy to be proven wrong. (Disney stock!)
I’m looking at Rentrak, and not seeing the same thing ET is. Not sure what’s going on here.
You need to look at the daily patterns side by side as a trajectory. Since last Saturday, when the big drop took place, both movies have had a very similar slope like pattern. It’s not like “Spider-man 3” which had a “storm the gates!” type opening followed by precipitous jagged drops day after day when lined up against comparables. Movies from a July to May comparison see higher weekdays but drop faster on weekends.
Anywho, enough on my part. The point is based on the trajectory in the last 7 days, falling below TDKR would be very unlikely. Falling to 425 would be nearly impossible. Guess we’ll see:)
Not hyping anything JS, just observing how it affects the comparative properties – make no mistake that if BVS is able to do numbers even close to what Ultron is pulling next spring, they’re popping champagne at Warners.
You can’t deny though that Disney/Marvel can learn some lessons from this marketing campaign: sell your strengths. And it was never going to help any Marvel property to push a dark, forboding robot with the voice of James Spader with a creepy remix of Pinocchio playing in the background.
Et, trust me, I know how to read the data. 🙂 That’s why I don’t see how you’re getting that the drops are lower / similar for Avengers 2.
Oh, well.
Why is that impossible Et? Look at this chart below – Ultron is not tracking much beyond Catching Fire, Iron Man 3, nor TDKR:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/grossbydays.htm?days=10&p=.htm
Geoff, they made their Empire Strikes Back, but with an asshole robot. The marketing is interesting, but it worked for a lot of people. It may have kept the kids away, but AoU is a Marvel Movie. If the parents let their kids see Guardians, then they saw AoU as well. Next year, Marvel have a movie that’s crazier than an asshole robot movie, and it will be interesting to see how they market it. You have heroes fighting one another, and a lot of heroes fighting one another. I will put this out there: Civil War beats AoU box office.
A lot of you, have brought up how the crossover aspect of Avengers is not SPECIAL anymore. If that is the case, then the aspect of these heroes… beating the shit out of one another, while Spider-Man watches, may break the fucking bank.
That aside, you are correct, Geoff. If Dawn of Justice makes anywhere close to this money, then Warners will have a lot of drunk executives following it’s opening. I’m going with all of those movies toping out at 800m, because “DO YOU BLEED?,” is even fucking darker than Pinocchio loving robots.
With all this endless Übermensch box office talk, I’m beginning to question whether or not the Nazis actually lost WWII.
Um JS, darkness only works if you sell it right and make it interesting and I really loved that first teaser for Ultron….but I’m not the only person who felt a little let down by the film not living up to that promise.
And “When Gotham burns to ashes, you have my permission to die….” grossed almost $1.1 billion WITHOUT any 3D surcharges and pre-China explosion so I wouldn’t underestimate the marketing folks at Warners pulling it off again. Hell did you actually see Gone Girl??? That movie was dark as shit starring the new Bruce Wayne/Batman himself and it made a ton a dough. Look I was never a fan of Zack Snyder…..couldn’t make it through 300 and I really did not like Watchmen, only found Man of Steel to be “pretty good” so I’m skeptical, but you have the creative team behind Argo now collaborating on this one, so I’m hopeful.
And dude, there is NO way that ‘Civil War is even approaching these grosses not when it’s going to be sandwiched between BVS and X-Men Apocalypse a month in either direction….it’s going to feel like Avengers 2.5 just a year after Part 2 which is getting a mixed reception. THAT is also why Warners was smart to space things out after the mixed reception of Man of Steel plus providing at least three years between Batmans, so as to not confuse the audience too much.
“but with an asshole robot”
Wait, “Ultron is a great villain. Easily, one of the best of any film, and that’s the brilliance of Spader.”
Now I’m confused.
“then the aspect of these heroes… beating the shit out of one another, while Spider-Man watches, may break the fucking bank.”
Yes there is some serious cache in this, and even I will admit that. The Avengers movies always are most entertaining when they are fighting each other, the forest scene threesome in Part 1. Hulk vs Hulk Buster in Ultron. With Thanos rearing his ugly head, he will definitely be overshadowed by all the fight foreplay between Ironman and Cpt America finally come to a climax.
dear superheroes fighting each other in ‘Erectile Stones: Civil War’ 1 through 8,
please use nukes. all of them. and there’s smallpox virus held in three secure locations (listed below for your convenience), don’t hesitate to ‘free’ these samples and spray them on each other during your big hissy fit. or for a faster, more definitive extinction-level kill method, might i suggest the hadron collider located near geneva, switzerland (i’ll draw a map for you, attached) – i’d think stark could rig this particle accelerator up to reduce the enemy superheroes along with the entire planet to strange matter, no probs.
(if none of these strikes your fancy and something less earth-bound – more sci-fi and ‘cosmically grand’ – seems in order, there’s always the asteroid belt located between the orbits of mars and jupiter, not difficult to find with a powerful telescope; i’m sure a little space diversion ruse would be simple enough for you superheroes, send one of the particularly massive ones hurtling into planet earth — hey it worked a treat for the dinosaurs, just sayin’).
thank you in advance.
yours in christ,
me
There’s not much distance between MoS and BvS as far as sequels go. Less than three years is actually a quick turnaround. AoU isn’t getting mixed reviews. Isn’t it getting good reviews? Only 3 percentage points below the first Avengers movie on metacritic. 74% rottentomatoes. About 60% drop from opening weekend. It’s performing like most sequels do, but it’s still great business. It doesn’t look like Marvel is going to change course, and why should they? Warner Bros doesn’t know what they are doing yet with their DC properties except a relatively successful MoS. Their new Batman is just that, new, and untested. We will see next year if it works.
So now that the embargo’s broken, and MAD MAX is apparently the best “summer” movie of the 21st century (you could make a case for TDK, the STAR TREK reboot or even SNOWPIERCER before this), AVENGERS might have a real test on its hands after all.
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