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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Entou-What? Klady

Friday Estimates 2015-06-06 at 7.31.58 AM

We are 11 studio wide releases into summer and it’s already fair to say that it’s been a really odd season. One $191 million opening… and nothing else over $70 million.

The second phase of summer is coming next weekend with Jurassic World, starting what should be a hot run with Inside Out, Ted 2, Terminator, Magic Mike XXL, and Minions. Then it’s “Growers, Showers or Blowers” with Ant-Man, Trainwreck, Pixels, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, Vacation, Fantastic Four, The Man From U.N.C.L.E., and Straight Outta Compton.

Spy will “win” this weekend with Melissa McCarthy’s third-best opening in a big role. Odd to think Identity Thief will have had a better opening.

Insidious 3 drops off, but still does a bit better than a $20m launch.

San Andreas holds weakly for third.

Entourage has a weak, weak $10m (maybe just under) 3-day.

It’s funny that the two movies most talked about aside from Mad Max this summer are looking like the two lowest studio grossers. We need to aim higher.

Decent launch for Love & Mercy, and Alicia Vikander’s Ex Machina audience is coming out for Testament of Youth for what will be the best per-screen of the non-ethnic-niche indies this weekend.

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22 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Entou-What? Klady”

  1. JS Partisan says:

    Wow. The studios need to release films, that will something make some serious money with the quickness. Also, Entourage had something of an audience, for like two minutes. These things happen, because some people view those characters are rich entitled douchebags. It is what it is, but Melissa McCarthy and Paul Feig aren’t looking to hot right now either. Sure. Insidious probably peaked on Friday, but if it doesn’t? Not good. Not good at all.

  2. Kevin says:

    Am the only one who thinks SPY is overrated? It’s fine for what it is, good cast, some amusing bits, surprisingly effective action scenes… But 95% on Rotten Tomatoes?

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    I really liked it, but it’s not as good as BRIDESMAIDS. And this opening is quite good JS. Right in between THE HEAT and BRIDESMAIDS. $150 million seems like a good bet for the 3rd straight Feig/McCarthy movie.

    The INSIDIOUS opening is also very good for a movie that felt like a money grab with Wan/Wilson/Byrne departing. Better in terms of quality than I expected….better than #2.

    And the Love & Mercy opening is okay! We’ll just have to see if it can leg it to $10 million given the arthouse stampede about to happen.

    TESTAMENT OF YOUTH….really good.

  4. Kevin says:

    Definitely not as good as BRIDESMAIDS… But much better than THE HEAT, so there’s that.

    LOVE & MERCY is amazing. Paul Dano and John Cusack deserve Oscar nominations.

  5. movieman says:

    I was actually pleasantly surprised by “Spy.”
    Thought it was easily Feig’s best to date (including “Bridesmaids” which I thought was a tad overrated, and “The Heat” which I flat-out loathed).
    For the first time, I experienced a glimmer of hope that Feig’s “Ghostbusters” reboot might not be as godawful as I’d feared.
    Agree that “Chapter 3” was much better than it needed to be.
    Of course, I don’t remember a thing about the two previous chapters, so I’ll probably forget I even saw this one before Labor Day, lol.
    “Love + Mercy” deserves all of its critical huzzahs. Hope it evinces some decent legs as the summer progresses.
    Anxious to see “Testament”–it doesn’t open here until mid-July, though.
    Having (mostly) enjoyed “Entourage” during its HBO run, I’m guessing my ehhh reaction to the movie is another instance where something that worked just fine in half-hour increments loses something (a lot actually) expanded to feature length.
    Methinks its best days are already behind it b.o.-wise.

  6. EtGuild2 says:

    BRIDESMAIDS had a lot of the same qualities, for me, of recent straight female comedies until the final act in which it became a surprisingly workable zeitgeist statement on inequality and trying to keep up with the joneses that elevated it a bit. Wiig’s work since then (Hateship Loveship, Skeleton Twins, Welcome to Me) continues to have those tinges of commentary that THE HEAT lacked. That was also a feature of Apatow circa 8+ years ago with KNOCKED UP and SUPERBAD before subtlety became a thing of the past for him.

    SPY you can read as a gleeful feminist send-up of CIA-centric comedies so it kind of falls in the middle.

  7. Pj says:

    Kinda happy with Spy underperforming. Sure it’s alright. It’s got some laughs but only reason it is 95% on RT is political issues.The people have spoken and it’s no different then Identity Thief.

  8. movieman says:

    I worried there might be somewhat limited appeal for “L&M.”
    Hell, “Entourage”‘s per-screen was nearly identical yesterday, despite being on 2,600+ more screens.
    Roadside should have really platformed it on the coasts first to create some buzz.
    Guess it’s too late now.

  9. Geoff says:

    Why is any one surprised about Entourage….was there really a clamor for this movie??? I had been thinking that Warners was cannibalizing themselves with all of these back-to-back-to-back releases and it looks like this one was the biggest victim. Of all of the HBO-to-movie adaptations, I don’t get why this received priority…..they unfortunately missed their window on The Sopranos a couple of years back and I hope this does NOT deter them from moving forward with Game of Thrones because THAT needs to happen. Seriously just watch that last episode – I know the show gets some pretty hefty financial support, but it’s just SCREAMING out for a bigger budget and a feature-length version. Maybe in 2017 after the supposed last season has aired?

    Spy is a damn funny movie as was The Heat….I don’t get the rapidly brewing backlash against McCarthy. Is this really THAT much different from the late ’80’s run of Eddie Murphy, the mid ’90’s run of Jim Carrey, or the mid 00’s run of Will Ferrell??? They had a few years to ride their shtick and collect some big steady paychecks….why are so many folks faulting her for doing the same? Spy is probably underperforming a bit but it will likely clearly $120 million domestic and probably gross more overseas than her other recent films.

    Any predictions on Jurassic World? Iffy sign that early reviews haven’t been allowed with barely a week before release….but the marketing has been top notch. I can see $110 million opening hopefully clearing $300 million domestic – $1 billion worldwide is what Universal is hoping for and it’s going to be hard to spin if they go far below that.

  10. btx says:

    I am a little surprised at Spy underperforming. I haven’t seen the demographics breakdown but it seems like this movie needed 25+ males to show up and maybe not enough of them did.

  11. John says:

    Warner releasing three guy skewing films in 4 weeks seems like its insane and self sabotaging. ENTOURAGE should have been a fall movie and MAX could have used some space before SAN ANDREAS.

  12. movieman says:

    P.J.- No director has benefited more from H’wood’s (and male movie critics’) guilt over perceived misogyny in the film industry than Paul Feig.
    While I think he was (wildly) overpraised for “Bridesmaids” and (especially) “The Heat,” he does good work here.
    Maybe it’s a case of diminished expectations. I went in expecting a lame 007 spoof like the ones that proliferated in the mid-to-late 1960s, and was pleasantly surprised.
    Yeah, it’s 15 minutes too long and could have certainly done without the projectile vomiting and rodents (flying and otherwise), but I had a much better than than at any of Feig’s previous films.
    If if had actually been made in the ’60s, Totie Fields would have played McCarthy’s role (w/ Rod Taylor and David McCallum as the male spies), lol.

  13. dinovelvet says:

    Yeah, Entourage should have been bumped. The next 2 weeks only see 2 wide releases – Jurassic Park and Inside Out. Either one of those weekends would work better. How come nobody is trying to counter-program either of those two? Put Man from UNCLE on the 19th or something.

  14. J says:

    Wish ‘Pigeon’ were heading to a theater near me.

  15. movieman says:

    Wasn’t “Entourage” originally slated to open opposite “Jurassic”?
    Now that would have been a bloodbath.
    But opening opposite the Pixar on the 19th? Might have worked (a little) better on that date.
    Really strange how there are so few movies opening in June, and way too many in July and (especially) August.

  16. EtGuild2 says:

    @dino, DOPE is counter-programming, and I’d expect a fast and dirty expansion for “Me and Earl” if it performs as expected.

    @john, Warners is opening MAX at the end of this month. Oh wait, you meant MAD MAX, not the doggie/kiddie film dropping a week after INSIDE OUT speaking of WB cannibalizing itself;)

  17. David Poland says:

    I think the 95% on RT thing is very interesting because it doesn’t mean it’s great, but just that 95% of critics thought it was okay or better.

    The actual meaning of something like RT vs perception is fascinating.

  18. YancySkancy says:

    Michael Sragow posted a rave for SPY on filmcomment.com that whet my appetite for it even more than the McCarthy/Statham/Byrne combo already had.

  19. leahnz says:

    “I can see $110 million opening hopefully clearing $300 million domestic” (re jurrasic world)

    “hopefully” why geoff? it’s the devil (if satan was very middling remakes made with all the soul, creativity and storytelling flair of a box of sugar cereal)

    ‘spy’ is a hoot

  20. brack says:

    Entourage opened about as well as expected. It’s a pretty funny comedy, by it has a limited audience, and the last two seasons were so-so. It wasn’t a cultural phenomenon like Sex and the City was.

  21. Bitplayer says:

    I don’t get all the Paul Feig hate. “The Heat” was a funny movie. “Bridesmaids” was a funny movie. I’ve probably laughed out loud during 10 movies in the last 10 years and I just named two of them above. With comedies he’s one of the few directors even fucking trying? Who else is doing better really? If Spy underperformed it was the stiff competition from similar date movies. I do’t think the trailer did a good job selling what the movie was about either.

  22. Tracker Backer says:

    JS– what happened to Entourage being some huge hit? It was the “it” show after all, right?!

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