Friday Estimates by Klady Ren
Look at the size of that thing!
I have long said that any date could accommodate any sized movie… if the movie is what people want to see. I underestimated the degree to which Disney could build the “must see” frenzy for Star Wars: The Force Awakens. By the time they got to the $100 million pre-sale, almost all of which was for this weekend, it was over. Well done.
What is the weekend total going to be? No one knows. The holiday total? No one knows. The overall total? No one knows. Everyone is only guessing. I am only guessing.
But I have said that I think it will break the daily record for everyday it shows in the month of December and the holiday days of early January. And I still believe that. The top “today” ever before was The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King‘s $27.5 million in 2003 (actual date: 12/20). The “top Sunday” is Avatar‘s $24.7 million in 2009 (actual date: 12/20). There are estimates that have Star Wars doubling those numbers… some tripling.
Do keep in mind that as big as this opening is, it is “only” a 40% bump over the previous top December opening record. If that held and Star Wars VII improved the record-matching Saturday and Sunday, it would do $73.1m over the weekend for a $192m opening weekend. But no one wants to hear that so… we shall see.
Sisters tried to ride the wake of Star Wars, though I am not sure counterprogramming is much of a thing in the presold ticket era. No one is showing up at the theater and getting turned away from The Force Awakens and saying, “Let’s just go Sisters instead.” Still, though this opening is well off of Baby Mama, the previous Fey/Poehler outing, it should do well to be in the holiday window, where decent word-of-mouth should allow it to play well for the next couple of weeks and match or surpass Baby Mama‘s $60m domestic total. Wahlberg and Ferrell are in their way, though that seems like it might be a great double feature Saturday combo.
Ehhh.
Kind of disappointing for “TFA,” huh?
I was expecting nothing less than a billion dollar opening day from all the breathless, incessant hype that surrounded its opening.
Just under $120-million (including $57-million from Thursday’s “previews”)?
Not sure if it can recover from such an underwhelming bow.
Guess it’s time to begin writing the b.o. obits, people.
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These, to me, are the five most important weekend openings prior to this:
5. Transformers 2 taking in 109 million despite universal condemnation and a Wednesday opening. It had a 5 day opening of $200 million, which was beyond unprecedented at the time, especially for a total stinker. Death knell for significant critical influence.
4. Avengers/TDK…Take your pick. Both served as an expansion of the dominant genre in modern history.
3. Twilight: New Moon. Aside from Potter, a proven commodity, nothing ever opened to 9 figures after summer really. New Moon opened new doors for tentpoles like Bond, THG, etc. At the time, a $143 million opening was the biggest for a non-superhero movie by a wide margin.
2. THG….$153 million in March expanded the calender like never before.
1. Spider-Man
I’d put TFA at #2 or #3
This has to be one, because when does this happen again? Will Disney get the screens for Infinity War part II? Does Episode VIII top it? Outside of Marvel and Star Wars, this shit isn’t likely to be toppled for while. It’s fucking astonishing. Really astonishing.
It’s too soon to tell. The difference between TFA and JW is about the same as the difference between SPIDEY and POTTER 1, the previous record-holder….in real dollars.
As David has noted for many times over the years though, SPIDEY is what transformed the industry. I’d argue The Hunger Games was close, because it landed on a nothing-burger period and blew it up forever (Alice and Wonderland heavily benefited from Avatar carryover…I think everyone agrees).
if this thing has any kind of legs its looking at avatars record.
America has In the heart of the sea fever!
Not to sound insane, but that “single day” sounds low to me. They announced it crossed 100m by 1pm PST, so it ONLY did another 20 million after that? That doesn’t sound feasible given the fervor.
IN THE HEART OF THE SEA is incorrectly listed as “NEW” in the table.
You took the percentage increase of this single day compared to the previous 3 day December record and then applied that multiple to the top Saturday and Sunday December numbers to get the weekend. This makes absolutely no sense. Am I missing something?
Indeed, the math makes no sense. STAR WARS’ Friday alone is higher than the whole previous weekend record.
“Do keep in mind that as big as this opening is, it is “only” a 40% bump over the previous top December opening record. If that held and Star Wars 7 improved the record-matching Saturday and Sunday, it would do $73.1m over the weekend for a $192m opening weekend. But no one wants to hear that so… we shall see.”
Just want to make sure everyone read this doubling-down closely.
No one is doubling down, Laz. It’s just fucking math. Get a life, people.
After all the talk about Paramount giving PARANORMAL ACITIVITY 6 an early digital release, no one has said anything about how Warner Bros has already slipped PAN out for home consumption 70 days after it was released in theaters. WB also digitally released another bomb, WE ARE YOUR FRIENDS, less than two months after theatrical.
Saw the movie last night and really enjoyed it – it’s a JJ film through and through, for better or worse, but I would also say that it’s by far his best. Look let’s face it, Disney marketed the shit out of this film – I would say it’s the best marketing campaign for a blockbuster in recent years, we’re talking a slow year-long roll-out of trailers and footage climaxing in a major final trailer roll-out during Monday Night Football timed for advance ticket sales. They are going to be talking about the campaign for this film for years!
Deadline is reporting a unsurprising big drop on Saturday which makes sense considering the HUGE upfront demand and advance ticket sales – the studio is now estimating about $220 million, still well ahead of the previous record set by Jurassic World. But…..Revenge of the Sith opened ten years ago at $158 million opening on a Thursday and adjusted for inflation, that’s about $205 million for roughly the same time period considering that TFA made almost half it’s opening day gross with Thursday night previews – that’s about a 7% improvement for an installment cost more than 50% more than the last one. Of course that gap will be way more than covered by significantly higher overseas grosses and probably much more merchandise and theme park tie-ins. Disney bought this for a reason. 😉
192? Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha
But that $50m Thursday for Sith was for an official full day of screenings, not just from 7pm so not an equal comparison. Then Sith’s first Friday was $33m whereas TFA is almost double that. Remove the Thursday figures and Sith made $108m for the weekend while TFA will do about $170m.
Additionally, I’m scratching my head at David’s “only 40%” bump remark. I’d like to see that math please.
It’s estimated at $238 for the weekend. That’s math, too, DP.
Looking at the math, I’m not seeing “only 40%” anywhere either.
TFA’s $57 million midnight screening compared to Hobbit’s …$13 million? More than 40%.
TFA’s $60-ish million Friday compared to Hobbit’s…$24 million? More than 40%.
Please explain.
What a fiasco.