Friday Estimates by Spoiled By Now Klady
It’s a dense pack of movie openings and holdovers on Friday.
Star Wars continues to kill it, setting records every day. Thursday/Christmas Eve was the only day of its run so far that the film didn’t top the best December day ever (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey – $37.1m ). It passes $500 million domestic on Sunday. It wouldn’t be shocking – in terms of how December holiday weeks roll and how this film is playing – for the film to pass $850m domestic by the end of the holiday period (January 3), passing Avatar‘s domestic record of $761 million next Friday, the 28th. So clearly, Star Wars will own the domestic record – soon – but the worldwide is still a long shot, pretty sure to pass Titanic‘s first-release $1.8b total, but still looking to come up $500m – $800m short of Avatar‘s $2.8m worldwide.
What does this mean? What is interesting to think about is that we usually laugh at the rest of the world for buying our junk in much bigger numbers than we will in America. In this case, the numbers may well end up being bigger domestically than internationally… which has only happened in the billion dollar-plus class with… wait for it… Batman (The Dark Knight).
Will Ferrell had his second best opening ever for a leading role (Lego Movie/Austin Powers 2 excepted) and what may – given December – end up being his best opening weekend ever. Not coincidentally, the current #2 also co-starred Mark Wahlberg (The Other Guys). This is a strong commercial comedy pairing.
Joy had Jennifer Lawrence’s best non-action opening day and David O. Russell’s best single box office day ever and could come close to a $20m 3-day.
Concussion and Point Break are soft, though this is less of an issue for Concussion – a drama – than action flick Point Break. Will Smith can’t power these dramas to outrageous numbers anymore, but a $50m gross for Concussion would be a great success.
The Big Short expanded on Wednesday and is playing well. The film could well crack $35 million before the holiday is over. It’s a hard sell and that is a pretty good result… which could get a lot better if Paramount can pull off a slew of Oscar nominations.
We have a tale of two limited engagements. There is The Hateful Eight, which is on 100 screens… and only 100 screens. The per-screen of $19k for Friday is less impressive on the surface… but given the one-screen-per-theater-count limitation and the high screen count for an exclusive release, it’s more impressive that it would appear. The film will have the best per-screen average of any film with more than 18 screens and less than 4000. That’s a pretty wide berth… and a pretty rare group of strong openers to start with. More context… it is the second highest per-screen ever for a film over 18 screens… and the only film to do better with more than 18 screens for a weekend was Star Wars: The Force Awakens last weekend.
The Revenant is a more conventional case. It’s 4 screens can expand to 8 or 12 or more, as needed (Star Wars withstanding). Still, $42,500 per for one day is exceptional. The record for a 3-day on four is $203k for The Grand Budapest Hotel. It isn’t that. It’s not American Sniper ($158k per on 4) either. But it is right there with Moonrise Kingdom, Steve Jobs, Dreamgirls, American Hustle, and The Imitation Game. There is a lot of variety in that group, so what we know is that we don’t know from these numbers.
TFA cume is wrong… it should be closer to 440.
Sorry, palmy, thought that had already been corrected. Is now. Len forgot to add Friday (oy).
At this point, I don’t think it’s wise to bet against THE FORCE AWAKENS…
Why is Concussion at 50 a great success and Bridge of Spies at 70 just a modest one?
When “The Exorcist” opened 42 years ago today, it was on just 26 North American screens.
And its grosses–adjusted for inflation, of course–make those for “Revenant” and “H8” seem downright puny in comparison.
Hard to convey to Millennials just what a sensation the film was back then.
(“TFA” w/ projectile vomiting and crucifix-masturbation perhaps?)
Love that it opened on a single screen in NYC (a theater which only seated 700 people), and that the closest cities playing it were in D.C. and Boston (a single screen apiece).
WB’s decision to platform the movie was a stroke of marketing genius.
Their gradual rollout of the film might seem insane by contemporary standards. But it guaranteed that “The Exorcist” was still playing many first-run engagements six months later.
Glad to see Creed will cross $100m.
Apparently there was an issue with the projector on the Vancouver showing of the Hateful Eight and the digital version was swapped in instead.
https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/3y9i2g/psa_no_spoilers_the_70_mm_film_screening_of/
Solid for Joy considering the year long rigmarole and ultimate mixed reviews of the film.
The Park in Vancouver is the closest theatre to me. Man, that’s cheap of Cineplex. They should have sent out the manager to the front to explain, offer refunds and then popcorn coupons for those that stay.
When we had a power bump during Revenge of the Sith,-literally as Yoda falls from the Senate pod-audible groan from the audience-at least the manager had the good sense to hand out free movie coupons on the way out. Also a Cineplex barn, btw.
I was lucky Doug R. Saw it there on Monday at the anvaced screening and we had no issues. Those seats are sure tiny though.
Gustavo: Expectations were higher for BRIDGE because Hanks + Spielberg > Smith + no-name director. Also, there are a lot of football fanatics who will skip the film for “religious reasons.”
Movieman: Yeah, it was a different world back then, distribution-wise. I lived in Ohio, and it was not uncommon for pics that opened in NY & LA at Christmas to not arrive in Cincinnati until April; LAST PICTURE SHOW and TURNING POINT are two I specifically remember. It was 1975 when the double-pump of BREAKOUT and JAWS started the slow move toward fast rollout.
I remember those days well, Cad.
I grew up in Ohio, too, and we got hit particularly hard w/ delayed openings.
One of the most maddening examples was “A Clockwork Orange” which didn’t make it here until June 1972, six months after its Xmas platform launch. “Fiddler on the Roof” opened here the same day as “Orange,” despite a November ’71 premiere on the coasts.
And “Satyricon”? A full year passed between its NYC bow and a local opening.
The funny thing is that when they finally did turn up (yes, even Fellini), the theater was packed to the gils.
There’s something to be said for delayed gratification.