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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates By Gentle Arrival Klady

Friday Estimates2016-11-12 at 7.53.43 AM

Even though Doctor Strange had an inevitable opening Friday-to-second Friday drop, the opening pace, right with Thor 2, started to push ahead on weekdays. And Friday showed a 42% increase on Thor 2‘s second Friday. This suggests that the final domestic number for this film could be in the high 200s or even tap 300 million.

Trolls has the rare and wonderful 0% drop. That suggests that the weekend could actually go up, as second weekend drops from opening day tend to take the biggest hits of the weekend.

Also holding well is Hacksaw Ridge. And The Accountant is finding new figures as it hits second run.

Arrival is the newbie and the box office mirrors the movie itself, which kinda sneaks up on you as it asserts its greatness. A $25 million-ish launch isn’t bad. This will be Amy Adams’ second opening as the lead, behind only Enchanted, which was Disney princess brand movie (before they officially started building that as a renewed brand). It is Denis Villeneuve’s biggest opener and will inevitably be his biggest grosser (until Blade Runner, Part Deux arrives).

Almost Christmas is not quite This Christmas, which was a hit for producer Will Packer nine years ago. But it could hold strong in the month to come, as we get to Thanksgiving and, well, almost Christmas. And the production costs were on the low side, so even starting soft, this looks like a money maker over time.

EuropaCorp is now not only producing, but distributing. Shut In is their fourth release, but they’re still looking for a hit. Miss Sloane is up next with a big performance by Jessica Chastain. Then a break until they release again in March. Luc Besson’s
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets is the film with the potential to be a worldwide hit that would accelerate the distribution side. But even if this effort doesn’t work out, EuropaCorp is one of the great non-American film companies of the world and will keep on keeping on. It’s a very different idea than Relativity was, but with a similar international-first foundation.

The big exclusive release this weekend is Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. 28k per screen on two yesterday. Of course, those are the two 120-frames-per-second screens, drawing cinema obsessives who must see the new magic trick. Sony expands to 1.100-plus screens next weekend, with still only two showing in the new frame rate. That will tell the tale. I’d love to see the movie at a normal frame rate and watch the movie, not the tech.

Also strong: Elle, the great Verhoeven’s take on sex and passion and perspective.

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11 Responses to “Friday Estimates By Gentle Arrival Klady”

  1. Stella's Boy says:

    Arrival Spoilers

    Arrival really snuck up on me. After about 90 minutes I wasn’t sure if I liked it or not. It was interesting and I was never bored, but it was leaving me a little cold and seemed a little obvious. Yes we need to communicate better and war is not the answer. I felt like I was watching a finely crafted but I also felt a bit detached from it. When it was over, I was much more moved and impressed. I sat there and thought wow that was pretty great. 10 minutes later I felt like it was making sense and I saw something amazing. I went back and thought about all the scenes with the daughter and the theory about how we learn in a language we immerse ourselves in. I think I love it now and would actually like to see it again.

  2. EtGuild2 says:

    DR. STRANGE has the…strangest, or perhaps murkiest future trajectory of a superhero movie in that it will finish the weekend at $150 million, and there’s still no telling if it ends up at $215 million, or perhaps $280 million. It’s playing right in line with THOR 2, but it’s also going to be running staggeringly higher than the MCU’s non-IRON MAN origins. 3rd weekend is key as we’ll see whether the usual 60% dropoff there occurs or not.

  3. David Poland says:

    It gets better the more times you see it, Stella.

  4. Stella's Boy says:

    I totally believe that Dave and look forward to seeing it again, whenever that is.

  5. Movieman says:

    Sony’s bum rush to “Billy Lynn” is inordinately depressing.
    You would’ve thought a two-time Oscar-winning director merited better treatment.
    An 1,100 screen expansion is pitiful, although a fraction better than the 800 screen expansion I’ve been hearing.
    Yeah, I get that the reviews weren’t what anyone was expecting out of NYFF, but still.
    Have a sinking feeling that it won’t open anywhere near me.
    Damn. Really loved the Ben Fountain source material and love Ang Lee.

  6. Geoff says:

    Strange to hear you under-selling a Marvel film Etguild – these are strong numbers for Dr. Strange, better than I expected. $300 million domestic is a strong likelihood unless it gets it legs cut off by ‘Fantastic Beasts next weekend…..and of course Disney’s own Moana the following week, common thread this year for a studio that is going to break records but still cannabalize itself.

    And yes, Arrival lived up to the hype for me and is fantastic – would LOVE to see it leg it out to $100 million domestic with the help of awards attention which is possible. Interstellar is a fair comparison – on a much larger scale but it had better holiday legs than folks expected and with weaker reviews.

  7. EtGuild2 says:

    $300 million seems out of reach for me given that it’ll be slightly below SKYFALL after 2 weeks, despite the fact SKYFALL had to contend with the #2 fall opening of all-time in its 2nd weekend, and SKYFALL had the benefit of Thanksgiving falling on its 3rd weekend, leading to a -13%(!!) drop and a $35 million haul.

  8. Warren says:

    Doctor Strange would need a 3.5 multiplier to reach $300 million–the only Marvel Studios film with legs like that was Guardians of the Galaxy. $250-270 million seems more likely.

  9. Stella's Boy says:

    The Monster sure is a bummer. I am not a huge Bertino fan. The Strangers and Mockingbird didn’t do much for me. But this one is pretty good. The acting is excellent and the monster is nifty. Nice work by ADI as per usual. Not spectacular but a familiar story well told and I love me a monster movie, especially one with practical effects.

  10. Heather says:

    Don’t forget Friday was Veterans Day, which is propping uo the numbers..especially for Trolls

  11. EtGuild2 says:

    Yeah…but as someone who questions whether World War 3 is about to start, based on News Feed posts (friends pretty evenly split), I do wonder if we’ll see a bounce continue through the weekend as people seek some form of comforting escapism.

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