Friday Estimates by Wonder Klady
Wonder Woman isn’t hampered by sexism. Nor does it seem to be buoyed by gender empowerment. It’s opening as one would expect – perhaps a tick or two better – the first standalone non-Batman/Superman DC character film. Up around the $100 million mark after an effects-heavy campaign that audiences liked.
There will be a lot of debate about the details, and that’s fine. But this opening is what one really wants to see for “female-led films” with “female directors”… parity.
There are moments in Wonder Woman that will thrill female viewers in particular, though I felt that same tingle down the spine that those women probably felt when “Paradise Island’s” warriors went into action en masse against the Germans. For me, it was, in no small part, because it was cool to see women fight like that. And I suppose, when one gets down to it, the rush was fresher, but not dissimilar to the rush one gets when seeing “the good guys” go into a major battle with “the bad guys” in any good movie.
Wonder Woman is a big step for women in film mostly because it is not that big a step cinematically. We were not experiencing the arrival of David Fincher or Christopher Nolan or Brad Bird. In a weird way, it reminds me of the feeling of seeing Ant-Man after all the mess with Edgar Wright leaving and Peyton Reed taking over. Loyalty to Wright made the whole thing seem precarious (and we still love Edgar), but Reed delivered a movie that was not only as good as was expected, but above expectations. I don’t know what Michelle MacLaren would have delivered or how much better it might have been (or about what she and WB conflicted), but Patty Jenkins, who stepped in late in the game, delivered a movie that works well. (For my few objections, see the review.)
Warner Bros will be crowing about how this film will out-open all of the standalone Thor and Captain America films (Civil War being a mini-Avengers film). And they should. They deserve to enjoy the win.
This would be a good time to point out that even though the Zack Snyder DC Universe has been shat upon critically up until now – deservedly so – this opening makes them 4 for 4 with $100 million domestic openings under Snyder’s supervision… a better streak than Marvel. $117m. $166m, $134m, and now, just over the line, but still likely $100m and change. I loved Ant-Man and Doctor Strange and neither opened to $100 million or very close. The real question will be whether Wonder Woman can top Strange’s $677m worldwide.
This weekend’s #2 is in Underpants. (Ewww!) The final Fox release of a DreamWorks Animation film is Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, which with an opening around $30m will likely be the last epic movie. (We’re in Mr. Peabody & Sherman territory, financially.) It’s a shame. Having read all the “Captain Underpants” books (thanks, kid), I think they made a mistake by sticking close to the origin story and not going as wild as the series goes. On the other hand, I guess that the successful book series has a natural age boundary that will never lead to giant grosses. I hope that Universal and DreamWorks make more films from the series for Netflix at a lower budget. There is a lot of room for creativity.
Meanwhile, Pirates 5 thumbs its nose at you, as it likely passes $600 million worldwide this weekend, with only $100m and change of that gross domestically.
Please don’t fix “Kong Arthur.” That’s exactly right.
What are the comps for Captaina Underpants? It seems like most animated films try to be four quadrant but based on the tone of the ads and how little it was advertised on networks this one seemed to be exclusively targeting kids. The comps that cone to mind are live-action, like Diary of a Winpy Kid.
That’s a good comp…or Percy Jackson, Alexander and the Terrible Day etc. Animated is tough…RISE OF THE GUARDIANS is the only other DWA book source I can think of (and has the pseudo superhero thing going), but the budget makes it a ridiculous comparison.
Man, I figured PIRATES would be able to at least exceed X:MEN APOCALYPSE given the family nature, but it’s going to be a struggle. And given the larger cost, there’s no guarantee it’ll be better off overall.
Ladies and gentlemen, BAYWATCH, the #1 Comedy of 2017!!!!!!
Man I can admit it: I was DEAD wrong about Baywatch! I thought it was going to be huge, like The Hangover Part II huge…..and it just flopped big-time. Ok it’s safe to say that Paramount is a very, very weak imitation of the hit factory of old that would have easily turned a TV adaptation like Baywatch into a blockbuster like The Addams Family or Waynes World.
And what’s there to say about Wonder Woman that hasn’t already been said? $100 million domestic opening looks like a very strong possibility and I think the legs will be there to carry it at least maybe close to $300 million domestic…..but I can’t fathom how it’s going to hold up overseas with this onslaught coming: Tom Cruise, Transformers, and Despicable Me for the remainder of the month. I think WB has to call it a win if it at least MATCHES its domestic gross overseas.
I have no idea what to expect from comedy these days. I could see ROUGH NIGHT and THE HOUSE clearing $100 million or failing to crack $50, with Universals urban comedy somehow skating to the summer crown. Who knows.
You refer to Civil War as a mini Avengers? I don’t know, lets debate that ad nauseum for a few weeks.
And yes Paramount is a small shadow of what they once were and seem to be following MGMs path down the drain. Viacom has owned them practically as long as gulf and western did and has let it whither at about the same speed as Gulf built them up.
We stare in wonder at Disney’s share of the market, but while impressive it wouldn’t be so huge if paramount and Columbia were the least bit competative one in four tickets wouldn’t be going to the mouse.
Is the UNDERPANTS budget a lie DP? Because this ain’t PEABODY by all accounts…I’m not sure how you’d get a lower budget unless you can convince Katzenberg to set up shop in your basement rent-free.
I read that the budget for Underpants was $38m plus marketing. If accurate then this opening can count as a win. No?
I was also way wrong on Pirates. Thought it would at least squeak past $200n. I thought Baywatch would get past $100m and Covenant would do a bit better.
Rough Night, has to deal with you know… Male weirdness. The House has a weird concept. I’d be shocked, if either of them are overly successful, but Rough Night should be the winner between the two.
Also, Warners shouldn’t be crowing about shit. Unless that shit, involves putting Wondie up for awards contention. Without the MSCU, there is no DCCU. No crowing. Just enjoy the win, and hope Wondie carries JL past… What’s that? THOR’S COMING!
I can’t speak to Captain Underpants budget in specific.
But I can tell you that Katzenberg was always miffed about his budgets being rolled out as so big and Illumination’s so small. He felt it was because of how overhead charges were or were not being counted in.
So with the shift to Comcast – home of Illumination – we could see DWA budget claims become much, much lower.
Ahhhh the same JS….after a few days of being magnanimous, back to the old JS. 😉
And fuck yeah assuming it takes off, Warner Bros SHOULD be crowing about Wonder Woman! If launching a female-lead superhero movie was SO easy and so sure-fire, then Marvel Studios would have done it years ago….and Thor Ragnarok looks like a blast as does Jusice League.
Speaking of “Rough Night,” doesn’t it sound like great counter-programming for “Transformers” which has the June 23rd weekend completely to itself (w/ a Wednesday bow, no less)?
Completely bonkers that 4 movies open wide June 16th and five (including “Baby Driver” on Wednesday and “The Beguiled” if it’s really “wide”) June 30th, yet the 182-minute “Transformers” goes solo.
Makes absolutely no sense.
Geoff, go read the comments made by DC execs, about not making a shared universe after Man of Steel. If anything, they should thank Kevin and Co., for being so damn successful. Again, if they want to to crow about this movie. Put it up for Oscar contention, and be the first to have a best picture nom. Seriously, it’s an amazing feat, but it’s a feat brought about by the competition, being brave enough to create something, that they themselves were afraid to do.
“The first standalone non-Batman/Superman DC character film?” What about Green Lantern? Jonah Hex? Or, for that matter, Swamp Thing?
“… then Marvel Studios would have done it years ago”
Done it with who? Wonder Woman is a seventy-year old character whose name has long been a common English euphemism and part of the general public culture. She even had her own tv series. The movie wasn’t as big a risk as you suggest, and DC/WB should have done it twenty years ago.
Marvel doesn’t have any female characters at remotely the same level of fame and popularity.
“Or, for that matter, Swamp Thing?”
chuckle
Adding to Joe’s list: Constantine
“You refer to Civil War as a mini Avengers? I don’t know, lets debate that ad nauseum for a few weeks.” It’s not a debate. It is Avengers 2.5. Period.
Since we’re back to claims of subject matter expertise on international superhero marketing, and insisting that the entire world walks into a movie theater with a strong understanding of exactly what they’re seeing because casual moviegoers simply don’t exist, I can’t wait for the upcoming debate on whether Sony or Marvel Studios gets the credit/blame for an even slightly stronger or weaker performance for HOMECOMING.
Spider-Man would have NEVER been this successful without Iron Man! RDJ is barely in it, this is a Spidey movie through and through! Sony rebooting this soon was so desperate everyone could smell it! Looks like RDJ’s star power might finally be fading!
Practically wetting myself with anticipation.
Pat… Captain Marvel keeps bring in them dollars, without Brie Larson uttering one word. Wonder what happens, when she does utter that first word? Let’s also remember, that the lack of a female Marvel movie, is on Ike Perlmutter. Never forget, that Ike doesn’t believe the women sell. Also, you know, Black Widow is fifty years old, and never started as an S&M character. Also, Squirrel Girl coming soon to free form!
Again, they may not be a part of the holy trinity, as Wondier, but let’s not act like their aren’t any beloved, iconic, and decades old female Marvel characters.
Ethan, Sony isn’t getting shit, but scorn. They literally, get Marvel to fix Spider-Man for them, then have the fucking nerve to make their own Spider-verse movies? Fuck them. They should go and find some new ip, instead of wasting time with films, that nobody wants.
Budget for Captain Underpants was $38 million as reported, this was outsourced to a non DWA studio in Canada as an experiment.
I partially agree with JS on this one – yeah if Marvel Studios wanted to launch a female lead superhero film, they had the opportunity years ago…..Feige was saying that a stand-alone Black Widow movie was “in development” four years ago. Ant-Man wasn’t a brand name nor was ‘Guardians yet they chose to spend $160 million and $230 million on launching those brands respectively….both cost more than Wonder Woman by the way.
Look I’m not trying to savage Marvel too much on this one – Feige’s a businessman and he’s not stupid, he produced Elektra 12 years ago himself. This wasn’t Perlmutter’s call, it was a business decision by all involved. I’m sure Feige crunched the numbers and just didn’t see an upside there, seeing how many women were already being drawn in with stars like Downey and Hemsworth.
And yeah Warners has been hot-and-cold on a Wonder Woman for decades now, that’s on them too – folks are going to keep giving Zack Snyder shit and no doubt, his stamp is even on on this movie too much but the dude deserves a lot of credit for making this happen.
Launching the film this early in the creation of this “universe” was always a risk and kudos to him for obviously doing the full court press to find a strong female director. (Yeah Kathryn Bigelow would have been cool also.) Almost makes up for Sucker Punch. 😉
Geoff, Kevin works with Alan Horn now, because it wasn’t his call. Ike had a hand in things, that is well documented. Again, Warners shamed his ass this weekend, and Scarlett should be really fucking pissed off. This could have been her moment, but Ike really is scared of girls… The fucker.
“and Scarlett should be really fucking pissed off. This could have been her moment,”
Um, nope.
A Black Widow movie would not have generated the BO or interest that a Wonder Woman movie did. I don’t care how much Js thinks the world knows and cares about “Nat” but they don’t. The character itself doesn’t lend to the kind of epic that Wonder Woman can play in. A Black Widow movie will probably look like every other Bourne clone that’s been produced overt he last decade or so, just with Iron Man turning in a cameo.
This is not to say that Marvel shouldn’t have pulled the trigger. They absolutely should have. It makes zero sense that Black Widow is apparently 800th in line for their movie plans.
A rated-R Lucy opened to $44 million. With Marvel/Disney’s muscle behind it, it doesn’t seem that outrageous to think that Black Widow could have generated WW interest and box office.
Wonder Woman does have the greatest name recognition and history, but isn’t it also a sign of the times? People are craving something different, especially women who are underrepresented in the genre du jour, superhero movies.
I think the only thing that has changed is that we have some women directors in the pipeline who can make these films authentically, whereas before women were more systematically shut out of male-oriented fare (Mimi Leder being an exception).
Leder should have her pick of feature projects. Her work on The Leftovers, including last night’s series finale, has been exceptional. Lindelof said things changed for the better dramatically after she joined the series in the middle of the first season.
Scarlett already had her chance at a female comic book character in GITS but blew it with whitewashing. Fresher faces are part of what’s invigorating about WW.