The irony part is that I Know What You Did Last Summer will be leaving the Top Ten for the last time just as Scream 2 (the Memorex part) comes into the number one slot that Kevin Williamson and his “summer job” (IKWYDLS) held for so many weeks. This is one sequel that should have a lot more opening bite than the original. Look for a massive $33 million weekend. Amistad has very little negative buzz, but still carries the very real limitations of being a lengthy historical drama, Spielberg or no Spielberg. And though the plagiarism lawsuit shouldn’t discourage moviegoers, it clearly knocked the DreamWorks media campaign off center. Hard to imagine more than $15 million for the film this weekend.
For Richer or Poorer and Home Alone 3 are kinda the same movie for two different age groups. Who knows what will happen? Home Alone 2 opened big despite plenty of negative buzz, as did Jungle 2 Jungle on Tim Allen’s appeal. I think both films will do somewhere between $9 million and $12 million, but that’s as far as I’m willing to stick my neck out here. (If either is going to stiff, I’d bet on HA 3.) Brushing up against these two should be the only other comedy on the list, Flubber, which should take fifth with a 40 percent drop to $6.8 million.

The Rainmaker should fall softly (35 percent) to fifth with $3.7 million, passing Alien: Resurrection, which should drop 50 percent for a sixth-place, $3.3 million weekend. (In last week’s final tally, Alien 4 did $6.66 million — more demonic irony!) Anastasia should forget another 40 percent for $3.1 million and seventh. The Jackal will bite off another $2.4 million for a 40 percent drop off and eighth. Warner Bros. fired its marketing president, misplacing the blame for misses like Midnight In The Garden Of Good And Evil. Marketing was good. Distribution plans were evil. Midnight will take ninth place with $1.9 million, heading for a total under $25 million and no Oscars. And Mortal Kombat: Artistic Annihilation will grab tenth with $1.3 million.
Lots of room for opinions with this week’s openings (read: David could really be wrong!) Join the growing crowd of box office guessers by e-mail.