Posts Tagged ‘Amistad’

More Than 39.2 Million Big Ones

Monday, December 15th, 1997

That, my friends, is a lot of scratch. Does it make you want to Scream too? I mean, Scream 2. Thought so. And it’s a record for a December opening to boot. And under all that screaming, no one will hear the muffled cries of those who made For Richer Or Poorer ($6 million for third) and Home Alone 3 ($5.1 million for fourth), both of which marked new lows for Tim Allen and Home Alone opening weekends. Flubber dropped the expected 40 percent to add a second place winning $6.9 million to the coffers as it bounces towards a likely $75 million total.
Amistad, for which I predicted a big opening, was limited by being on only 322 screens. My bad. But in generating $4.6 million for fifth, it averaged $14,596 per screen which is tremendous. Yet, any regular Hot Button reader will immediately notice the phenomenon of Delayed Unveiling Hubris, or DUH for short. Films that are meant to make over $20 million total cannot — with very rare exceptions — do well with a platformed release. (Those opening in just L.A. and NYC for Oscar consideration only are a different story. More on that on Friday.) No one is going to want to see Amistad more in a few weeks than they do now. And the ongoing controversies surrounding the picture won’t help.
The second five was (he said, patting himself on the back) almost exactly as expected. John Grisham‘s The Rainmaker scored another $ 3.4 million for sixth. Alien: Resurrection continues its 50 percent off per week pace, clawing up $3.3 million for seventh. Anastasia continues to be a kind-hearted impostor with a 40 percent drop to $3.1 million for eighth. The Jackal rips off another $ 2.5 million for ninth. And last, but least, Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil, itself a victim of DUH, acquires $1.8 million.
Have you noticed any box office patterns like the DUH? Send ’em to me via e-mail.

Is it Irony or is it Memorex?

Friday, December 12th, 1997

The irony part is that I Know What You Did Last Summer will be leaving the Top Ten for the last time just as Scream 2 (the Memorex part) comes into the number one slot that Kevin Williamson and his “summer job” (IKWYDLS) held for so many weeks. This is one sequel that should have a lot more opening bite than the original. Look for a massive $33 million weekend. Amistad has very little negative buzz, but still carries the very real limitations of being a lengthy historical drama, Spielberg or no Spielberg. And though the plagiarism lawsuit shouldn’t discourage moviegoers, it clearly knocked the DreamWorks media campaign off center. Hard to imagine more than $15 million for the film this weekend.
For Richer or Poorer and Home Alone 3 are kinda the same movie for two different age groups. Who knows what will happen? Home Alone 2 opened big despite plenty of negative buzz, as did Jungle 2 Jungle on Tim Allen’s appeal. I think both films will do somewhere between $9 million and $12 million, but that’s as far as I’m willing to stick my neck out here. (If either is going to stiff, I’d bet on HA 3.) Brushing up against these two should be the only other comedy on the list, Flubber, which should take fifth with a 40 percent drop to $6.8 million.

The Rainmaker
should fall softly (35 percent) to fifth with $3.7 million, passing Alien: Resurrection, which should drop 50 percent for a sixth-place, $3.3 million weekend. (In last week’s final tally, Alien 4 did $6.66 million — more demonic irony!) Anastasia should forget another 40 percent for $3.1 million and seventh. The Jackal will bite off another $2.4 million for a 40 percent drop off and eighth. Warner Bros. fired its marketing president, misplacing the blame for misses like Midnight In The Garden Of Good And Evil. Marketing was good. Distribution plans were evil. Midnight will take ninth place with $1.9 million, heading for a total under $25 million and no Oscars. And Mortal Kombat: Artistic Annihilation will grab tenth with $1.3 million.
Lots of room for opinions with this week’s openings (read: David could really be wrong!) Join the growing crowd of box office guessers by e-mail.