So… what have we learned while away from school?

Well, as of January 1, Juno has made more money than Sweeney Todd, it made more than Atonement’s total in this last weekend alone, it will pass Michael Clayton’s total gross this weekend, and it will pass No Country For Old Men next weekend.

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association could make a very interesting legal case for bias in the offering of waiver deals, arguing that the guild should allow the group, which owns the Globes privately and licenses TV rights to Dick Clark and NBC, to get a waiver as well. Like Worldwide Pants, they have little downside in doing a deal giving WGA anything they want.  But of course, no go with WGA… because none of the waiver decisions have much of anything to do with a consistent strategy.  Oh well.   HFPA is unlikely to have the guts or the high powered legal counsel necessary to make this interesting… and it will go away, making next weekend’s drama all the more dramatic.

Before we even get to resentment in the WGA ranks over some writers being given waivers to return to work, we’ll see just what impact there is as it becomes clear that the talk shows other than Letterman’s are being produced to appear quite the same as they were before the strike.  WGA making claims against Leno, O’Brien, and, starting Thursday, Colbert and Stewart will ratchet things up further, especially with Stewart slated to host the Oscars again.  And if they don’t… a different set of problems.

Oh… did I get off track?

Well the irony of the moment is that this is one of the most legitimately competitive awards season in a long, long time… and the entire mechanism of the season is kablooey.  The discs are out and the shows will start in earnest in the next week with BFCA’s Critic Choice Awards on VH-1 next Monday followed by LAFCA’s dinner on Saturday, followed by whatever the Globes end up being on Sunday, 10 days from now.

The great pleasure of the potential of this season is that voters will go unmanipulated and simply vote their guts.  Great.  And next year, same old same old.  This town just doesn’t have any institutional memory for embracing its better self.

Really, I am more interested in how David “The Bagger” Carr covers the Globes for the New York Times than I am in the awards show itself.  Someone will win.  Someone will lose.  Booze will be flowing at the parties.  And when we all wake-up the next morning, the Oscar strategy will emerge within 72 hours and two board meetings. And we little doggies in the media will lap it all up… especially the ones who claim not to care.

There is little left to say about the season.  A dozen films, up and down, will fill out the nominations and wins in the months to come.  And while we all have our personal favorites, it will be hard to argue that anyone missed by too very much.

Thank God for Sundance.

Well, we’re down to where we were a month ago!

Back on November 15, I wrote: “It’s also an unusual year because so many of these films are so good.  Everyone has personal favorites and films they just don’t like, but if you run down the list of the dozen or so films still in play, it seems like you are going to find almost everyone giving a “thumbs up” (quarter to Roger) to at least two-thirds of the titles.  That is remarkable, really.”

Has that changed?

Charlie Wilson’s War got kicked around.  Into The Wild didn’t get love from the Globes, but was embraced by SAG.  The Globes nominated 14 competitive releases, if you include the two foreign language films that are considered to be contending for Best Picture and a variety of craft noms.

You can find a fight whether arguing about Juno or There Will Be Blood.  When many if us gave up on a well deserved nominations for Ryan Gosling and Nancy Oliver for Lars & The Real Girl (hated by most of the Blood/Jesse James/Zodiac-ites), Gosling got nods from BFCA, HFPA, and SAG.  Can Team Kimmel make that into an Oscar nod?

Can The Diving Bell and the Butterfly and The Kite Runner overcome resistance to them based on the language spoken in them, a road bump even before voters consider the films as films?  Just how big are the passionate core groups for many of these films, which are relatively small?

I am pretty comfortable that the four films I am pretty sure are getting into the final 5 will actually be there.  But I wouldn’t bet you money on it.  I mean, it’s hard to imagine No Country For Old Men not getting in, but in the last pre-Oscar nod poll of the Gurus o’ Gold, 100% of Gurus said that Dreamgirls was in and 93% of Gurus thought Letters from Iwo Jima would come up just short.  No one knows until they know.

This year, it’s simpler … no one knows.

But even if we really are down to one slot for Best Picture still in play, it is a season of great pleasure.  Even the movies that you or someone else hates is likely to have a significant constituency that loves the film.  And with 15 films really worthy of consideration, even within the limited notion of what an “Oscar movie” is, there is a lot of good film to sink our teeth into.

The oddest thing about those season, for me, is that I find myself changing my mind about how close the films that are struggling a little more really are.  One day, it seems that Juno is right there, with too many people loving it for it to be denied.  The next say, people are talking about it being too clever for its own good and more commercial than Oscar.  Into The Wild feels intensely capable of making the leap .. but it continues not to find a foothold to assure its place at the table.  Talk to voters about The Diving Bell and The Butterfly and you get a lot of admiration … but not a lot of “that one gets my vote.”

A couple of weeks ago, Viggo Mortensen’s trip to Los Angeles to promote Eastern Promises wasn’t all that important to the season … suddenly, he is a serious contender for a Best Actor nod again.  The great Catherine Keener has gotten a need heartbeat as well.

This is one of the few years where it is easy to imagine the DGA nominations being off of Oscar’s Top 5 by at least two directors.  With due respect, if you have Paul Thomas Anderson’s work in There Will Be Blood and in Julian Schnabel’s work in The Diving Bell & The Butterfly and a living legend like Sidney Lumet delivering a vibrant, rough film at 83, and Todd Haynes bending time and personality in I’m Not There, and Ridley Scott delivering the highest caliber of commercial cinema in American Gangster, are they really going to go for a Joe Wright or a Jason Reitman?  And will they embrace a first-timer like Tony Gilroy?  Can anyone miss the stride that Sean Penn, who has always been a very serious director, however you feel about the output, has made with this picture?

This is a season where the cinematography nomination would not be out of line if limited to three people, two of whom would be Robert Elswit (There Will Be Blood and Michael Clayton) and Roger Deakins (No Country For Old Men and The Assassination of Jesse James).  And how could anyone other than Janusz Kaminski – the most underrated 2-time Oscar winner on the planet – get the fifth spot for his remarkable work in The Diving Bell & The Butterfly, done almost completely in-camera?

One of my favorite dichotomies of this season is off-chase, the media and the WGA.  On one side, you have the media scrambling for advertising dollars more aggressively than ever.  On the other hand, you have a significant portion of the industry shut down by a strike and that union’s apparent intention to shut down, if they can, the two largest awards shows while letting the rest slide, even hiring writers.  But after seven weeks, the media is already getting a bit bored of strike stories and it really hasn’t dipped into the Oscar hype until recently, when the question of who would cross a picket line came up.

Of course, I felt that the Oscars should have been delayed or reduced in the face of the start of the Iraq war, which started on March 20, 2003, three days before the Oscars.  There seems little chance that the men who made that call then would allow their show to be shut down by a picket line or anything else.  And in a surprising twist, Jon Stewart, who will host again this year, is going back to work on his heavily writer-driven show on Comedy Central.  So this friend of the WGA and WGA seems likely not to make a stand around the show.

The hope is that the strike will be over before the Oscars … even before the Globes.  But there is not a lot of hope out there.  But one thing is clear … people see Oscar as something altogether more significant than the other shows.  The Globes could be decimated and then we could still see Oscar come in strong with talent, although the effort to avoid red carpet embarrassments could change the look of the opening hour of pre-show … which was already enough to choke on.

But we’re two full months away from Oscar.  That’s a lot of water under the bridge when so many people are out of work.  Let’s hope both sides return to the table when they return form the holiday with the spirit of settlement in the air.

Then bring on the triviality!!!!

Wow… that was… muted.

It is odd that I find myself becoming The Awards Curmudgeon (trademark pending) while at the same time a fan of the idea of The Season.  I think it is a result of the hype overload – to which I am a party – that gets bigger and bigger every year… while the significance to the films of all the awards gets less and less.

I don’t think I actually object to the number of awards shows/dinners/luncheons so much as the lack of creativity shown by the groups and their organizers.  Groups do their damnedest to break onto the scene, only to tighten up like a sphinter on a cold morning’s trip to the outhouse when they get some attention.  Complain to me all you like about it all being treated as a long road to “nothing but Oscar,” but whatever lightness accompanies these shows as they take grass roots seems to turn to “be more like the Oscars” when the ratings or outlets tick up.

It is one of the odd benefits – and God knows those are rare – of the WGA strike that something spontaneous might actually happen at the televised awards shows this year.  Heck, even if it is conflict with picketers – the best shot at national attention since the girls walked Wisteria Line.  (Note to WGA: Do a backdoor deal with PETA.  If writers can deliver naked actresses, turning the old Polish joke on its head, the AMPTP  will finally respect you.  Me?  I’d prefer just to get paid.  Isn’t a writer seeking respecte from the Studios like a Jew seeking a good art review from Hitler?  Get the visa to NY and get out!)

But I’m here to talk about The Ghoulish Globes…

This season, it really is like picking sides for a kickball match at summer camp.  There are a finite number of kids on the field and everyone has to pick their team.  Some feelings will be hurt.  Some will be elated.  But the range of distinction is quite narrow.

”I’ll take Keira!”

”I’ll take the Coens!”

”Give me Clooney, as long as he isn’t riding his cycle to the game!”

Are there any surprises?

Yeah… that Harvey put a gun to Nadia Bronson’s head… who put a French tickler to 30 of the most susceptible HFPA members… who voted for movie so straight-forward that Harvey wouldn’t have anything to do with a film like that five years ago… while all the time he has a masterpiece like I’m Not There in the stable that really needed the help since it doesn’t have Oprah selling it.

Yeah… that Tony Angelotti wasn’t able to get Russell Crowe the Supporting Actor nomination that he didn’t deserve and wouldn’t support.

Yeah… that the Globes didn’t go for Knocked Up as their thirteenth nominee.

But you know, with The Kite Runner and The Diving Bell & The Butterfly in the Foreign Language category – and congratulations for picking one foreign language film that isn’t being sold by a major studio Dependent – that makes their list of Best Picture selections fourteen.  Way to narrow that field!!!

And give the old doggiebaggers credit… they picked Saoirse Ronan over the brilliant, but tiny-roled Vanessa Redgrave for Supporting Actress… they made the call for Eastern Promises when few others have… they saw past the acrimony and valued the excellent work inside of Across The Universe, which, however imperfect, is an achievement worth noting this year…

Oh yes… and they bent over backwards to get Julia Roberts, Jodie Foster, the Judd Apatow Crew, both Afflecks, Eddie Vedder (though I wouldn’t count on Sean Penn showing up), and Angelina Jolie in da house (but will Brad go with her?).

I actually feel, though some do not, that Tom Hanks, Ryan Gosling, John Travolta, Clint Eastwood, and Amy Adams are completely legitimate choices in the context of this show… which is not to say that I don’t admire some of the performances I just listed as celebrity reaches.

I do hope that Paramount Vantage will continue to embrace Into The Wild, in spite of it being the main title left out of the Globes fun that is really in the Oscar race.  I know those There Will Be Blood pulses are racing, but it would be a shame to wake up on Oscar nom morning and find neither film in the Best Picture race.  (And speaking of weak choices, the Globes missed both of the two best scores of the year… There Will Be Blood and Lust, Caution.)

In the end, it will be remembered that the Globes nominated over 80% of the Oscar nominees (in matching categories), including the winner in each category.  It is easy to play the “they missed this one” with these nominations, but again… the category winners are all there, except for, I suspect, TWBB’s Mr. Greenwood and his Glass-on-crack genius score.  It is also risky to bet against Tony Gilroy surprising in the director slot if Clayton gets a head of steam up and, interestingly, the screenplay group features only two originals and there is always a chance that Diablo Cody will not win, as sure as she is to be nominated.

Has anyone gotten a real boost by the Globes this morning?  I see only two.  John Travolta is not one of them, since this will just become another opportunity for people, wrongheadedly, to mock his excellent work in drag.  But Ryan Gosling and Casey Affleck took steps forward this morning.  New flag planted.  Now, it’s a matter of moving them around the bases.

The very best thing about the Globes nominations this morning?  They are the last major event between now and the new year.  Now I can focus on the year end lists and watching movies again and again and letting my brain soak in some warm soapy water.  Ahhhhhh…