Posts Tagged ‘Secretariat’

Weekend Estimates – October 17

Sunday, October 17th, 2010

Jackass 3D|49.3|New| 49.3
Red|21.9|New |21.9
The Social Network|10.8|-30%|63
Secretariat|9.4|-26%|27.4
Life As We Know It|9.2|-37%|28.8
Legend of the Guardians|4.2|-39%|46
The Town|4.0|-37%|80.6
My Soul to Take|3.1|-54%|11.9
Easy A|2.6|-39%| 52.3
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps|2.3|-50%|47.8

Secretariat Character’s Youngest Son Defends Mom Against Critics

Saturday, October 16th, 2010

“While the country was convulsed by feminism, Watergate and Vietnam, Penny took pains to present as a wife and mother, offering a wholesome, western, maternal female image that paired beautifully with the heroic, powerful male icon that Secretariat was becoming.”
Secretariat Character’s Youngest Son Defends Mom Against Critics; Clichés Reinforce O’Hehir’s Bold Interpretation

Friday Estimates – October 16

Saturday, October 16th, 2010

Jackass 3D|20.4|3081|New|20.4
Red|8 |3255|New|8
The Social Network|3.3|2868|-31%|55.4
Life As We Know It|3|3150|-42%|22.7
Secretariat|2.9|3072|-29%|20.9
The Town|1.2|2368|-34%|77.7
Legend of the Guardians|1|2502|-42%|42.8
My Soul to Take|1|2529|-63%|9.7
Easy A|0.8|2314|-38%|50.5
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps|0.7|2045|-49%|46.3
Also Debuting
N Secure|0.42|486||0.42
I Want Your Money|83,400|537||83,400
Brindaavanam|59,300|20||59,300
Hereafter|57,900|6||57,900
Conviction|29,100|11||29,100
Aakrosh|12,300|24||12,300
Carlos|6,900|1||6,900
Knockout|4,800|6||4,800
Vision|3,900|2||3,900
A Better Tomorrow|1,900|1||1,900
||||
*in millions|||

Box Office Hell – October 14

Thursday, October 14th, 2010

Our Players|Coming Soon|Box Office Prophets|Box Office Guru|EW|Box Office . com
Jackass 3D|27.8|n/a|26|n/a|31
Red|18.7|n/a|15|n/a|14.5
The Social Network|10.1|n/a|11|n/a|10.7
Life As We Know It|8.7|n/a|8|n/a|8.5
Secretariat|8.0|n/a|8|n/a|8.7

Gurus o’ Gold – A Post Toronto Look At The Field

Monday, October 11th, 2010






Updated on 10/11/10, 3p… adding Guru #15, Emanuel Levy and a few adjustments to others…

Weekend Box Office Report – October 10

Sunday, October 10th, 2010

Nobody Nose Anything

The Social Network surprised pundits with a better than expected hold and won the weekend movie going chase with an estimated $15.3 million. Three national debs were on its tail with lackluster returns. The rom-com Life As We Know It faltered in the clutch with $14.6 million while the much ballyhooed turf saga Secretariat posted $12.4 million, and there was a lack of stereoscopic shock for My Soul to Take with $6.9 million.

There was also a lack of oomph for the comic oddity It’s Kind of a Funny Story with $2 million tally-woo from 742 engagements.

In the niches Telegu-language Khaleja had a buoyant bow of $343,000 from 24 screens and OK returns of $72,700 for French thriller L’Immortel in Quebec. There were also a raft of exclusive bows with Darwinian winners that included the young John Lennon of Nowhere Boy grossing $51,300 at four venues, the squeezed of non-fiction Inside Job with $37,500 at two interviews and psychological thriller Stone with $71,400 from six couches.

Overall business once again took a dip with 2010 box office now less than 2% ahead of last year’s pace and industry mavens sweating out a quick reversal of fortune.

Tracking reports had pegged the uplifting tale of racing Triple Crowner Secretariat as the weekend’s odds-on favorite with estimates in the range of $16 million to $18 million. But its appeal to women and an older demo that remembered the four-legged wonder of the early 1970s failed to bring ‘em out in its maiden performance despite a considerable marketing push.

Life As We Know It was expected to be about a length behind Secretariat but pulled ahead right from the opening gate. It opened ahead of the pack on Friday with a $5.2 million bow but quickly lost ground to The Social Network as the weekend advanced.

And My Soul to Take fell smack in the middle of estimates in the $6 million to $8 million range. All three of the newbies skewed toward distaff viewers and there’s little question the marketplace is in dire need of something for the boys.

Weekend revenues pushed to roughly $92 million that represented a 4% dip from seven days back. It was a considerably steeped 16% fall from 2009 when the launch of Couples Retreat topped the charts on a $34.3 million first salvo.

On the expansion track, the “what’s wrong with our education” doc Waiting for “Superman” is holding up well and Woody Allen’s You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger continues to draw in aficionados. But the dour Never Let Me Go appears to have peaked early in the awards season. Among the new entries the highly enjoyable Tamara Drewe proved to be the surprise commercial disappointment with a dull $4,300 engagement average from four initial exposures.

__________________________________________________

Weekend Estimates – October 1-3, 2010

Title Distributor Gross (average) % change * Theaters Cume
The Social Network Sony 15.3 (5,520) -32% 2771 45.9
Life As We Know It WB 14.6 (4,630) New 3150 14.6
Secretariat BV 12.4 (4,050) New 3072 12.4
My Soul to Take Uni/Alliance 6.9 (2,670) New 2572 6.9
Legend of the Guardians WB 6.8 (2,100) -38% 3225 39.2
The Town WB 6.3 (2,310) -36% 2720 73.7
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps Fox 4.5 (1,600) -55% 2829 43.6
Easy A Sony 4.1 (1,450) -39% 2847 48.1
Case 39 Par Vantage 2.6 (1,160) -55% 2212 9.5
You Again BV 2.4 (1,030) -58% 2332 20.7
Let Me In Overture 2.4 (1,160) -54% 2042 9.1
It’s Kind of a Funny Story Focus 2.0 (2,670) New 742 2
Devil Uni 1.7 (1,210) -51% 1442 30
Alpha and Omega Lionsgate 1.4 (890) -51% 1616 21
Resident Evil: Afterlife Sony/Alliance 1.2 (1,210) -56% 1012 58.8
Waiting for “Superman” Par Vantage .63 (6,120) 54% 103 1.4
Toy Story 3 BV .55 (1,400) 140% 393 412
Inception WB .52 (1,290) -43% 403 289.2
Takers Sony .39 (950) -50% 412 56.8
Catfish Uni/Alliance .37 (2,590) -37% 143 2.2
Khaleja Ficus .34 (14,290) 24 0.39
Never Let Me Go Searchlight .33 (1,990) 77% 167 1.1
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $86.30
% Change (Last Year) -16%
% Change (Last Week) -4%
Also debuting/expanding
You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger Sony Classics .25 (3,380) 15% 73 0.84
Buried Lionsgate .21 (2,300) 118% 92 0.5
L’Immortel Seville 72,700 (3,030) 24 0.07
Stone Overture 71,400 (11,900) 6 0.07
Nowhere Boy Weinstein Co. 51,300 (12,820) 4 0.05
Inside Job Sony Classics 37,500 (18,750) 2 0.04
Route 132 Alliance 37,300 (1,430) 26 0.06
I Spit on Your Grave Anchor Bay 30,800 (2,570) 12 0.03
Tamara Drewe Sony Classics 17,200 (4,300) 4 0.02
Ghetto Physics IDP 10,700 (1,190) 9 0.01
Budrus Balcony 8,400 (8,400) 1 0.01
It’s a Wonderful Afterlife UTV 5,500 (770) 20 0.01
As Good as Dead First Look 1,850 (1,850) 1 0.01

Domestic Market Share – January 1 – October 7, 2010

Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Warner Bros. (23) 1340.5 16.20%
Fox (16) 1277.7 15.40%
Paramount (14) 1237.4 15.00%
Buena Vista (14) 1107.4 13.40%
Sony (23) 1081.3 13.10%
Universal (16) 753.6 9.10%
Summit (9) 425.1 5.10%
Lionsgate (12) 407.1 4.90%
Overture (6) 74.5 0.90%
Fox Searchlight (5) 71.5 0.90%
Focus (6) 68.4 0.80%
Weinstein Co. (6) 60.9 0.70%
Sony Classics (19) 52.3 0.60%
MGM (1) 50.4 0.60%
CBS (2) 50 0.60%
Other * (260) 217.3 2.60%
8275.4 100.00%
* none greater than .04%

Top Global Grossers: January 1 – October 7, 2010

Title * Distributor Gross
Avatar * Fox 1,948,069,404
Toy Story 3 BV 1,047,492,510
Alice in Wonderland BV 1,024,537,295
Twilight: Eclipse Summit 691,330,829
Inception WB 803,799,128
Shrek Forever After Par 732,163,289
Iron Man 2 Par 622,718,660
How to Train Your Dragon Par 494,288,254
Clash of the Titans WB 489,778,913
Sherlock Holmes * WB 367,796,599
Despicable Me Uni 367,194,481
The Karate Kid Sony 357,206,535
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time BV 335,020,929
Robin Hood Uni 311,610,747
The Last Airbender Par 310,375,125
Shutter Island Par 301,977,955
Sex and the City 2 WB 301,158,934
Salt Sony 287,626,258
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel Fox 264,341,533
Grown Ups Sony 261,324,243
The Expendables Lionsgate 257,529,373
Resident Evil: Afterlife Sony/Alliance 244,795,280
Knight and Day Fox 229,686,302
Percy Jackson & the Olympians Fox 226,497,209
Valentine’s Day WB 217,596,116
* does not include 2009 box office

Weekend Estimates – October 10

Sunday, October 10th, 2010

The Social Network|15.3|-32%| 45.9
Life As We Know It|14.6|New |14.6
Secretariat|12.4|New|12.4
My Soul to Take|6.9|New|6.9
Legend of the Guardians|6.8|-38%|39.2
The Town|6.3|-36%|73.7
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps|4.5| -55%|43.6
Easy A|4.1|-39%|48.1
Case 39|2.6| -55%| 9.5
You Again|2.4|-58%|20.7

Friday Estimates – October 9

Saturday, October 9th, 2010

Life As We Know It|5.2|3150||5.2
The Social Network|4.8 |2771|-40%|35.4
Secretariat|4|3072|New|4
My Soul to Take|2.6|2572|New|2.6
The Town|1.9|2720|-41%|69.3
Legend of the Guardians|1.8|3225|-31%|34.1
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps|1.4|2820|-58%|40.4
Easy A|1.3|2847|-41%|45.3
Case 39|0.8|2212|-57%|7.8
Let Me In|0.75|2042|-61%|7.5
Also Debuting
It’s Kind of a Funny Story|0.6 5|742||0.65
Khaleja|32,500|22||32,500
L’Immortel|22,800|24||22,800
Stone|21,300|6||21,300
Nowhere Boy|12,700|4||12,700
I Spit on Your Grave|11,100|12||11,100
Tamara Drewe|5,100|4||5,100
Ghetto Physics|4,990|9||4,990
Budrus|3,450|1||3,450
It’s a Wonderful Afterlife|1,500|18||1,500
||||
*in millions|||

Review: Secretariat

Friday, October 8th, 2010

Secretariat, the horse, was a big, glossy chestnut colt who won the Triple Crown and is widely regarded today as perhaps the best racehorse who ever lived. Secretariat, the movie, is big, glossy cinematic comfort food for the family in troubled times, grilled cheese and tomato soup wholesomeness to soothe the soul and take the viewer back to simpler, happier times.

In spite of its title, though,the film is not the story of how Secretariat the horse won the Triple Crown for the first time in 25 years — not exactly, anyhow. This is the story of his owner, Penny Chenery, who’s played in the film by a luminous, angelic, glowingly lit Diane Lane (and can I just say as an aside here that, if you have reason to have someone make a movie about your life, you could do worse than having Lane play you on the big screen).

Equally well cast is John Malkovich as Secretariat’s eccentric French-Canadian trainer, Lucien Laurin. Malkovich handles playing the flamboyant Lucien as effortlessly as you would expect of him; every time he’s on the screen he dominates your attention, and yeah, he occasionally munches a little scenery, but he’s fun as hell to watch.

Lane, to her credit, plays Chenery as befits honoring the woman who became one of the first female members of The Jockey Club — with spunk and vivacity, charm and fierce determination. It’s an excellent performance on Lane’s part, which makes it unfortunate that the story almost completely excises the most interesting feminist aspects out of the film, making Penny Chenery into almost a mildly rebellious PTA-mom extraordinaire, well-coiffed and resplendently elegant in heels and dresses even as she takes on the men of the racing world and kicks their chauvinistic asses.

What with the film being set roughly from 1970 to 1973, it surely must have been tempting for someone involved in this film to play up more the political aspects of the story. We have all the key ingredients here: Chenery, who held a B.A. from Smith College and had attended Columbia Business School, married Columbia law student John Tweedy and spent the next 18 years playing housewife and mother before getting roped back into her father’s racehorse business when he grew ill 1968.

But the script, based on a book about Secretariat by Bill Nack, skimps on showing us the prejudices Chenery surely faced as a woman in a predominantly male world.

There must surely have been a lot more marital tension, resentment, and familial strife in her Denver homebase when Chenery abandoned her post as general of hearth and home to pursue a racing dream than what’s depicted in the movie, which makes it seem like it all happened seamlessly. The former housewife turns prominent career woman, while her endlessly supportive husband and fresh-faced, perpetually happy and understanding children cheer her on from the sidelines. Really? Only in a Disney movie. I’m sure in retrospect her husband and kids are proud of Chenery’s achievements, but I just didn’t buy at all that her victories in her career came without any cost on the homefront.

Speaking of homefront, wasn’t there a war (excuse me, “conflict”) going on around then too? There’s complete lack of cultural context in the film, which barely tosses a reference to the political stew brewing in America at the time by giving us A.J. Michalka (who, together with her sister Alyson, compromises popular Disney group AJ and Aly) as daughter Kate, a well-off white girl who wades in the shallow end of the political pool by playing dress up with hippie clothes, painting protest signs, and writing a political play.

But this is a Disney movie with a Disney star as the daughter, kids, so Kate is a clean and wholesome sort of hippie with clean-cut, wholesome wannabe hippie friends who don’t, apparently, believe in the free sex, power to the people and pot-smoking of that era. Or at least, they certainly don’t inhale. This film could have taken some lessons from, say, television’s Wonder Years, which at least attempted to address the tension of those times within its storyline while still being entertaining.

Also, while we see Chenery get some crap from men around the racetrack, we never once see another woman question Chenery’s commitment to her husband and children because her work requires her to travel away from her family. I get comments about that myself in 2010 over my own work travel, and I just find it impossible to believe that no one ever pulled that on Chenery in the 1970s.

On the other hand, while I do think the film considerably glosses over the politics affecting the country at the time, I don’t see it as particularly being bait for conservative Christians in flyover states or Tea Party wives. Penny Chenery was no obedient little wifey. The real Penny Chenery may or may not consider herself a feminist, but certainly by the actions she took she certainly set a feminist example that a woman can be a wife and a mother and also chase a dream. And that’s not a bad message for a little girl, even one living in 2010, to get.

I’m not saying I disliked Secretariat overall. It’s well paced and edited, glossy and golden and gorgeously shot. Every scene, practically, is bathed in a golden glow, as if we’ve died and gone to horseracing heaven. The horses coats glisten with sheen, there are slow-mo shots where we see every muscle rippling under shiny coats in exquisite detail. There are shots during the racing sequences here that could be framed and hung in museums, and the visuals alone make Secretariat compelling to watch.

Director Randall Wallace does a good job as well of overcoming the considerable hurdle that we know going into the film how it ends. I mean, it’s Secretariat. It’s not a spoiler to say that he wins the Triple Crown and goes onto become a prolific producer of very valuable racehorse semen. The excitement and tension in the film doesn’t really come, therefore, from there being uncertainty as to the outcome, which is a challenge from a filmmaking standpoint.

Wallace makes the race scenes thrilling to watch, even though we know that (most of the time) Secretariat, in spite of his habit of starting at the back of the pack, would come out of nowhere with a near-miraculous burst of speed to win. The racing montage of Secretariat’s wins leading up to the Triple Crown races in particular was edited artfully, and the horse’s big battles against rival Sham are tense and exciting even though you know the outcome already.

But I almost felt sorry for Sham, a beautiful, athletic racehorse in his own right who also had the heart of a champion but here is painted as the “bad guy” standing in the way of what feels in retrospect like Secretariat’s foreordained place in racing history. And this is a problematic element in the film, one that’s not similar, actually, to the issues I had with The Social Network‘s portrayal of Mark Zuckerberg as a villain for the sake of storytelling.

Here, the role of necessary bad guy is played by Sham’s trainer Pancho Martin, played by Nestor Serrano (presumably because the script and director so guided him) as a dark, smoldering, cocky, chauvinistic and inherently unlikable asshole of a guy. And hey, for all I know maybe Martin was that kind of guy, but this portrayal of him felt unnecessarily over-the-top.

Sham and Secretariat were rivals on the racetrack, yes, but Sham really was a good horse who just had the misfortune (or bad karma, maybe) to be born the same year as perhaps the best racehorse in history. It’s too bad for him, really, and I think a bit of a disservice to that horse to paint him as a classic Disneyesque sidekick-to-the-bad-guy character.

Think of the story from the point of view of Panco and Sham: Pancho has this great colt, maybe the best colt of his career, in Sham — who, in fact, also broke track records even when he lost to Secretariat. But poor Sham was doomed to be relegated to the horse beaten by Secretariat, kind of the racing world equivalent to playing “second shepherd on the right, recognized only by his mother” in the church Christmas pageant.

Andrew O’Hehir made some interesting points in his write-up of the film about Secretariat being custom-made for the same Christian segment that made a surprise hit out of last year’s The Blind Side, and as a story it’s certainly true that it follows that film’s successful formula almost to a tee. I’m not sure I’d argue for an Oscar for Lane for this role, but neither would I discount the appeal of the chipper, perky, ladylike woman who overcomes odds to the Academy voters.

I’m not sure I agree, though, with O’Hehir’s accusations of blatant Tea-Party pandering and overt racism in Secretariat, other than perhaps to a degree in the portrayal of Pancho-as-villain. Is it true that the only other significant minority in the film is Secretariat’s groom? Well, yes. Secretariat’s groom, Eddie Sweat (Nelsan Ellis) was black, there’s no getting around that. I can see the argument that the portrayal of Sweat in the film is perhaps a little “Uncle Remus,” but I don’t know that it’s an unrealistic portrayal, given the time and setting of the story.

The world of horse racing is a sport that’s almost exclusively the domain of rich white men and their rich white wives who like to wear big hats to the Kentucky Derby while they sip mint juleps, which is what makes Penny Chenery’s place in racing history that much more interesting. I guess I take issue more with the castration of the feminist element, as it were, than with any latent racism in the film.

Overall Secretariat is to me an interesting blend of the feel-good Disney family movie and an attempt to make a classier, artsier movie out of a racehorse story while maybe angling for the Oscars, but that doesn’t make it an unenjoyable film. As a film to see with the kids, it’s not a bad choice, even if for me, it’s painted a little too broadly and uninterestingly to launch it significantly into year end or awards consideration. Secretariat plays as more of a feel-good crowd-pleaser than compelling art, but for what it is, that’s probably good enough.

Wilmington on Movies: Secretariat, Life As We Know It, Buried, You Again, and Let Me In

Friday, October 8th, 2010

Secretariat (Three and a Half Stars)

U. S.; Randall Wallace, 2010

If you’ve got a great story, in life or in movies, the best thing to do is usually to let it fill your heart, tell it clearly, keep it straight and pure, and don’t load it up with agendas and tack-ons. The new movie Secretariat has a great story, an almost unbelievable (but mostly fact-based) story — the incredible saga of the horse who won the 1973 Triple Crown, blew away the field, set unmatchable records, and is still regarded almost universally as the greatest race horse who ever lived and ran. (Almost?)
(more…)

O’Hehir Responds To Ebert’s Response To His Triumph Of The Willful Review Of Secretariat

Friday, October 8th, 2010

O’Hehir Responds To Ebert’s Response To His Triumph Of The Willful Review Of Secretariat

Ebert Turns Whinny The Pooh-Pooh On O’Hehir’s Secretariat Notice, Offers Ire Learning On Triumph Of Willful Reading-In

Friday, October 8th, 2010

Ebert Turns Whinny The Pooh-Pooh On O’Hehir’s Secretariat Notice, Offers Ire Learning On Triumph Of Willful Reading-In

Critics Roundup – October 7

Thursday, October 7th, 2010

Secretariat|Yellow|Yellow||Yellow|Green
Life As We Know It|||||Red
Inside Job||Green|Green|Green|
It’s Kind of a Funny Story |Yellow|Yellow|Green|Green|
Letters to Father Jacob ||||Green|
Marwencol |||Green||
Stone |Red|Green|Green||Yellow
Nowhere Boy |Green|Green|||Green
Tamara Drewe |Green|Green|Green||

Box Office Hell – October 7

Thursday, October 7th, 2010

Our Players|Coming Soon|Box Office Prophets|Box Office Guru|EW|Box Office . com
Secretariat|15.7|21.1|16|10|15
Life As We Know It|14.8|23.7|15|16|14.5
The Social Network|14.2|16.8|15|15|14
Legend of the Guardians|7.5|7.2|7.5|6|7
My Soul to Take|7.3|10.5|9|5|6

Will O’Hehir’s Be The Only Review To Describe Secretariat In Terms Of Both The “Tea Party” And Of Leni Riefenstahl?

Wednesday, October 6th, 2010

Will O’Hehir‘s Be The Only Review To Describe Secretariat In Terms Of Both The Tea Party And Of Leni Riefenstahl, As Well As A Strange “Work Of Genius”?

Secretariat? About A Horse? Nonsense, Sez Disney

Wednesday, October 6th, 2010

Secretariat? About A Horse? Nonsense, Sez Disney

The Sunday LA Times

Sunday, October 3rd, 2010

The Sunday LA Times
Selling Secretariat
And – The Stone Work Of DeNiro And Norton
Plus – “How Would One Sing If One Were A Wolf?”

The Sunday NY Times

Sunday, October 3rd, 2010

The Sunday NY Times
Budrus Doc Encourages Middle East Nonviolence
And – Spotlighting The Hamptons Film Fest
PlusJeff Daniels Checks Out Of “The Ambition Hotel”
AndMatt Reeves On A Let Me In Scene
WithHorses At The Movies
And –
Scott On “Authentic” Tony Curtis
Plus“Being Glenn Beck”
And – Being Charles Ferguson
And
Scott On Gekko And Zuckerman
Plus – Michael Cunningham Learns To Write For The Reader
And – Kehr Tethers Arthur Penn And Tony Curtis In Death, Meaningfully
Plus – Athletes Use Avatar-Style 3D Imaging
AndTaking Porn Low-Tech
With – A Night Out With Vincent Kartheiser
And
Pete Seeger’s Sunday Routine At 91: “Letters To Answer And Logs To Split”

22 Weeks To Oscar: The Year Of Good Being Good Enough

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

I was going to write about how tight the Oscar race already is as we enter the month of October. But looking back at last season’s post-Toronto column… 8 of 10 of the eventual nominees were already well in focus. And had I not been so stubborn about believing that District 9 could make it, I would have had every film except The Blind Side in my Top 13 possibles at the time.

The point is not to ring my own bell, but to pay tribute, really, to how early and how strong the Oscar push efforts are these days. They are still stealth. No one is supposed to notice that a campaign has been going on for months. In fact, no one wants to be up in front, towards the head of the pack, this early. You can be sure that a lot of competitors are giddy that The Social Network has such heat around it RIGHT NOW.

The biggest news coming out of Toronto, aside from films that were non-starters, was that we now have only seven films, by my count, that are in any way contenders that have not been widely available to be seen by The Press and some public. And the only one that seems to be an inevitable nominee – scary words, those – is True Grit.

That is not to say that the other unseen films are not serious contenders. Four are comedies – Due Date, How Do You Know, Love & Other Drugs, and Morning Glory – three from very serious directors and one from the director of one of last year’s commercial phenoms, The Hangover. The Fighter is from revered David O. Russell… who has never made it into the Oscar race. And another, For Colored Girls…, is from critically reviled Tyler Perry, who is a commercial sensation and is working from a play that was one of the most widely seen in the 70s and 80s.

And then there are the films that have already garnered a lot of love. Movies like The Kids Are All Right, Winter’s Bone, and Get Low have many fans and supporters. The Town has had a few weeks as the hot title to discuss, to be followed this weekend by The Social Network. Shutter Island is Scorsese’s biggest worldwide grosser ever, slightly ahead of Best Picture winner The Departed. And what of Oscar faves Clint Eastwood, Mike Leigh, and Alejandro Gonzalez-Inarritu?

I am pretty comfortable that at least 6 of my 7 Most Liklies will be there in the end. The only real question, to me, is whether both Black Swan and 127 Hours, both masterful, artful, commercial films will make the cut. And that’s when distributors have to decide how they are going to craft their efforts. Does a Sony Classics move forward on all fronts or do they decide which of their films is the most realistic nominee? Does a Roadside Attractions, which has very strong candidates in Best Actor and Best Actress, push for more… aside from maybe screenplay nods? Does Lionsgate believe that either of their actor-nom chasing films are BP candidates? And how does Sony balance what feels like a lock for The Social Network when they have a Jim Brooks movie with Oscar winners Reese Witherspoon and Jack Nicholson in the hopper?

But the thing that really, really strikes me at this moment is that it is a very competitive race for a dozen or so movies looking to fit into a few slots (anything can happen in Phase II… there is no such thing as a frontrunner to win at this point), GREAT is not necessary. In fact, GREAT may be a problem for some of these films. This is the Oscar season of Really Good.

There is no The Hurt Locker… no film offering itself up as one. There’s no deep underdog like Precious. There is no Avatar. Toy Story 3 and Inception will be the highest grosser amongst BP nominees (assuming TS3 makes it). But neither film has had the kind of impact that Avatar had and will be two of at least five $700 million worldwide grossing films this year.

So we may be back to the best liked movies over the best movies. How lovable is Made in Dagenham? Is Ed Zwick at an advantage making his first comedy in almost 25 years instead of another drama? Do Academy members really want to wrestle with the heaviness of Never Let Me Go and Winter’s Bone and Biutiful and Rabbit Hole when Black Swan and Shutter Island feel both a little weighty, but are also movie movies that leave you leaving the theater excited by the craft of filmmaking?

I’m really curious. All six of the still unseen non-Coen films could be left on the sidelines. Or they could represent 3 or 4 of the final 10.

In any case, we’ve all been whining about the first half of 2010 and I have to say, there are a lot of good times at the movies coming down the pike. And if even half the unseen films are Really Good, it’s kind of a thrilling year… all of a sudden… out of nowhere.

Cool.

Best Picture Chart – 9/30/10

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010
BEST
PICTURE
Picture
Studio
Director
Stars
Comment
The Films
Most Likely
(by release date)
June 18
Toy Story 3
Disney
Unkrich
July 16

Inception
WB
Nolan
DiCaprio
Oct 1

The Social Network
Sony
Fincher
Eisenberg
Nov 5
127 Hours
FxSch
Boyle
Franco
Nov
24
The King’s Speech
TWC
Marshall
Firth
Dec 1
Black Swan
FxSch
Aronofsky
Portman
Dec 25
True Grit
Par
Coens
Bridges
Brolin
Damon

The only film in this category that hasn’t been seen.
Duking It Out For 3 or 4 Slots (by release date)
July 30
Get Low
SPC
Schneider
Duvall
Spacek
Murray
Feb 19
Shutter Island
Par
Scorsese
DiCaprio
June 11 Winter’s Bone
RdAtt
Granik
Lawrence
July 9
The Kids Are All Right
Focus
Cholodenko
Bening
Moore
Sept 15
Never Let Me Go
FxSch
Romanek
Knightley
Mulligan
Garfield
Sept 17
The Town
WB
Affleck

Renner

Oct 8
Secretariat
Dis
Wallace
Lane
Oct 22
Hereafter
WB
Eastwood
Damon
Nov5
Due Date
WB
Phillips
Downey
Galifianakis
Nov 5
For Colored Girls…
LGF
Perry
Elise
Goldberg
Newton
Nov 12
Morning Glory
Par
Michell
McAdams
Ford
Nov 19
Made In Dagenham
SPC
Cole
Hawkins
Nov 24
Love & Other Drugs
Fox
Zwick
Gyllenhaal
Hathaway
Dec 10
The Fighter
Par/Rel
O. Russell
Wahlberg
Dec 17
How Do You Know
Sony
Brooks
Witherspoon
Nicholson
Dec 17
Rabbit Hole
LGF
Mitchell
Kidman
Dec 29
Another Year
SPC
Leigh
Broadbent
Staunton
Dec 29
Biutiful
RdAtt
Gonzalez-
Inarritu
Bardem
The
Rest Of The Contenders
(by release date)
Mar 26
How to Train Your Dragon
DW/Par
Aug 13
Eat Pray Love
Fox
J Roberts
Sept 1
The American
Focus
Corbijn
Clooney
Sept 24

It’s Kind Of A Funny Story
Focus
Boden/
Fleck
E Roberts
Sept 24
Wall Street 2
Fox
Stone
Douglas
Mulligan
Oct 15
Conviction
FxSch
Goldwyn
Swank
Dec 25

Somewhere
Focus
Coppola

Dorff
Fanning

Dec 1
Miral
TWC
Schnabel
Dec 10
The Tempest
Mir
Taymor
Mirren
Dec 31
Blue Valentine
TWC
Cianfrance
Gosling
Williams