So… magically, Transformers 2 improves it’s hold just enough to beat Ice Age 3 for the day.
Remember last week, when Transformers 2 came up short of $200 million based on Sunday numbers and, just coincidentally, the Thursday and Friday estimates rose enough to hit that magical $200m mark?
After Tr2 dropped 78% – without the late night numbers – from its first Wednesday to its second, yesterday, the estimate is down to just a 60% drop. If it dropped 62%, it would have been behind IA3. Hmmmm… wonder if these estimates will be “adjusted” before Monday “finals.”
I actually think that Tr2 will legitimately win the race on Friday, with $21m – $22m to IA3’s $18.5m or $19.5m.
Saturday being the July 4 holiday is bad for Fox, who would normally get a big Saturday bump. On the other hand, if you look back at the holiday, whatever day of the week, and you see pretty normal numbers, sometimes a little higher than normal. So we’ll see.
Either way, I expect Ice Age 3 to win both Saturday and Sunday. The question will be how great the spread is.
Of course… I could end up being wrong about all of this. Tr2’s drop is not too much of a question mark. But where IA3 goes is more up in the air.

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