Box Office Archive for October, 2006
Sunday Estimates by Klady
Not much more to say about Saw III
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Saw III is off to a faster start that either of the first two films, sight unseen. Basically, on this series, Lionsgate does what is otherwise the skill set of Screen Gems or Dimension. Solid, simple, sell to one audience and one audience only.
The Prestige has a shot at $45 million or $50 million, which is no disaster, but no thrill either. Look for foreign to be stronger. And Flags of Our Fathers may not get to $30 million, which is an indicator of audience word-of-mouth, regardless of whether some major critics have embraced the film.
As we work through the awards season, critics are far overvalued as are groups like HFPA. The former only makes major waves when throwing a light as a group on a specific film or performance. The latter is in the game of guessing what the Academy voters will think. Neither answers the specific question… what will 6000 middle-aged and elderly Academy voters love?
That is why Babel is not nearly as muscular a player as some would have you believe and Flags is in trouble. It is also why Munich got nominated last year, in spite of scathing attacks from some angry critics. (That one should also remind us that if our sense of the whys changes depending on how we personally feel about a film, we will endup being wrong more often than not.) Reverse Analysis is significant, in that an understanding of history does matter. But as a predictor, it is pretty iffy.
And the danger of being perceived as underperforming at the box office is the good reason why smaller quality films wait for December. If a film like The Hours goes out in December in limited release and doesn’t soar, it is seen as needing space. If a Ron Howard film opens in summer and doesn’t hit $100 million, it is seen as a failure. And The Academy does not, with a few exceptions, vote to nominate failures.
Open Season will quietly become Sony Animation
Another Travel Day…
Here is some box office…
And 20 Weeks, 18 Weeks To Go
Can you smell it? Come on, take a good, deep whiff
Friday Estimates By Klady
Movie | Friday | Screens | % Chg | Cume
The Prestige | 5.1 | 2281 | New | 5.1
The Departed | 4.2 | 3005 | -26% | 67.7
Flags of our Fathers | 3.4 | 1876 | New | 3.4
The Grudge 2 | 2.7 | 3214 | -73% | 26.4
Flicka | 2.1 | 3379 | New | 2.4
Open Season | 2.4 | 2877 | -23% | 61.6
Man of the Year | 2.1 | 2522 | -48% | 17.6
Marie Antoinette | 1.9 | 859 | New | 1.9
Texas Chainsaw Mass | 1.2 | 2569 | -59% | 33.4
Nightmare Before X /3D | 1.1 | 168 | New | 1.1
Also Debuting
Don | 0.22 | 113
Running with Scissors | 67,000 | 8
Jaan-E-Mann | 28,500 | 40
Sleeping Dogs Lie | 3,000 | 6
51 Birch Street | 2,800 | 2 –
Jonestown | 2,650 | 1
Taking On False Prophets In The Hot Button
No one has looked over this Hot Button column, so I am afraid there will be some typos that I missed, but I am here on the island and felt it was worth pushing this out… not only so you could have something to discuss, but because this scam needs some calling out…
The Hot Button, Oct 18
Sunday Estimates by Klady
What else is there to say?
The Grudge 2 suffered mightily as the weekend progressed. Everything else was kind of as expected from the Friday numbers.
The Queen continues to impress, though it is worth pointing out that The Illusionist, which has been a bit of a surprise hit, did nearly the same number on 51 screens on its opening weekend ($927,956 on 51 screens) and Little Miss Sunshine did a little bit better ($1.48m on 58 screens) in its second weekend. Will that put The Queen at a between-the-two $45 million domestic? Miramax sure hopes so!
Deliver Us From Evil is getting a lot of well-deserved attention from the media, but in its first weekend, it did not translate to much box office. It
Klady's Friday Estimates – 10/14
Looks like The Grudge 2 will be off about a third from The Grudge, which seems like a victory to me, given that it looks like an even crappier film than the original remake. Even with that drop, it will become (for now) a Top 20 opening in this year, like to come out around the same place as Underworld: Evolution, both in opening ($26.9m) and final number ($62).
The Departed will be close to $55 million after two weekends and will probably be behind both Flags of Our Fathers and The Prestige next weekend. But WB would be well advised to invest in a second wind campaign the week after, finding itself in position to get 3 more strong weeks out of November before Bond. (The most dangerous film for The Departed is, oddly, Borat, though it may not hit the adults squarely for its first few weeks.)
The opening of Man of the Year may seem disappointing, but it will probably be bigger than any two weekends for Wag The Dog, back in 1997. Wag was a truly great film and I haven
Sunday Estimates by Klady
Weekend (estimates) October 6 – 8, 2006
Title | Distributor | Gross (average) | % change | Theaters | Cume
The Departed | WB | 26.5 (8,790) | new | 3017 | 26.5
Texas Chainsaw: The Beginning | New Line | 19.1 (6,780) | new | 2820 | 19.1
Open Season | Sony | 15.9 (4,140) | -33% | 3833 | 44
Employee of the Month | Lions Gate | 11.7 (4,550) | new | 2579 | 11.7
The Guardian | BV | 9.7 (3,000) | -46% | 3241 | 32.5
Jackass: Number Two | Par | 6.4 (2,120) | -56% | 3007 | 62.7
School for Scoundrels | MGM | 3.5 (1,170) | -59% | 3007 | 14.1
The Gridiron Gang | Sony | 2.4 (1,060) | -48% | 2228 | 36.7
Fearless | Focus | 2.3 (1,400) | -55% | 1617 | 21.7
The Illusionist | YF/FS/Odeon | 1.8 (1,600) | -33% | 1149 | 34.1
Little Miss Sunshine | Fox Searchlight | 1.3 (1,540) | -36% | 824 | 55
Trailer Park Boys | Alliance | 1.2 (6,680) | new | 181 | 1.2
Flyboys | MGM | 1.1 (730) | -55% | 1471 | 11.9
Facing the Giants | IDP | 1.0 (2,250) | -27% | 435 | 2.7
The Science of Sleep | WIP/Seville | .74 (3,290) | -34% | 225 | 2.8
The Black Dahlia | Uni | .56 (600) | -74% | 931 | 22
Also debuting/expanding
The Queen | Miramax | .39 (35,270) | 132% | 11 | 0.62
The Last King of Scotland | Fox Searchlight | .29 (9,770) | 105% | 30 | 0.53
Love’s Abiding Joy | Bigger Pics | .13 (720) | new | 185 | 0.13
Alex Rider: Operation Stormbreaker | Alliance | .10 (900) | new | 115 | 0.1
Little Children | New Line | .10 (20,640) | new | 5 | 0.1
ShortBus | Thinkfilm | 77,300 (19,330) | new | 4 | 0.08
Not a lot more to say.
Klady's Friday Estimates – 10/7
The Departed opened on more than 1000 screens more than any Scorsese movie has opened on before. (Bringing Out The Dead, 1936 screens) It
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