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David Poland

By David Poland

Weeeknd Estimate Leftovers by Klady

(Apologies… the chart that was up before 11:45a was a workbook draft that was posted in error. These estimates are now the correct ones. The last graph of my analysis column has also been adjusted. DP)

How bad were the four openings this weekend? Bad enough that they can barely be considered part of the summer. Only Glee 3D, Judy Moody, Monte Carlo and Winnie opened wide as pooh-ly as three of these films and One Day is, by estimate, the worst wide opening of the summer.

But we can’t just blame late August. The higher grossing trio of openers this weekend grossed, together, about $500k more than Inglorious Basterds grossed in the same slot two Augusts ago. The 2007 Halloween reboot opened to $26.4m. Even the unknown element that was The 40-Year-Old Virgin opened to $21.4m in 2005.

With four titles getting smushed, there is plenty of blame to be deflected.

On the other hand, there are two clear August winners. The Help is more than $20 million ahead of either of its “summer ladies pictures” predecessors, Eat Pray Love and Julie & Julia and the second weekend, specifically, is estimated at about 65% more than either of those two films.

Others may argue otherwise, but I would say that Unforgiven is the highest grossing drama ever released in August, with $101 million. There are 25 films that have grossed more, domestically, in August, including two Shyamalan films. But removing action/thrillers, kids movies, and comedies, I’d say it’s Unforgiven. But The Help is likely to pass both EPL and J&J by the end of next weekend and Unforgiven in the middle of the weekend after. And then the question is just how high the film can get. $115m? $120m? More?

Meanwhile, Apes are rising. Currently at #11 of all August openers, it will pass Rush Hour 3 and XxX to take the #9 slot during this week. Next weekend, it looks like it goes to #6, passing American Pie 2, Talladega Nights, and GI Joe. It may stall out in that slot. The next landmark is The Fugitive at $184m domestic and that might just be a rope swing too far. But at least $170m domestic seems quite likely.

That also would put it right behind Thor and ahead of Bridesmaids for this summer, three “first-films” (can’t call 2 of the 3 original, can we?), all behind the top 5 films of the summer… all sequels.

The Smurfs are still kicking along here. But even more so overseas. Over $200 million and counting. Looks like it will be Top 10 worldwide through the summer, behind only Thor in the comic book arena, when the numbers are all counted up.

Final D5 is about half way to the gross of the last film in the franchise and will given the sharply downward trajectory that these films have always taken (aside from the first of the series, which was leggy) end up being the lowest grossing of the lot ($47m is the low bar, domestically).

Senna was the arthouse star this weekend with a $11.6k per-screen on 14 screens. Decent per-screen of The Whistleblower too… $3350-per on 44. Also finding winners on a smaller scale, Neo Classics with The Hedgehog and Music Box with Mozart’s Sister.

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22 Responses to “Weeeknd Estimate Leftovers by Klady”

  1. The PTA on SENNA is last weekend’s. I was amazed for a second, but then realized it was closer to ~$5K. Still solid for a specialty doc, but after last weekend’s amazing pull, maybe a bit disappointing.

  2. BTW, BOM has $169,000 for SENNA, a bang-up $12K+ PTA…

  3. Gus says:

    That’s last week’s total on Another Earth, too. That one is pushing a million total now.

  4. Krillian says:

    Tremendous holdover for The Help.

    On one hand, would’ve liked to see a new Conan franchise, but by giving it to Marcus Nispel, I don’t think it ever had a chance.

    Strictly financially speaking, Thor 2, Bridesmaids 2, Pirates 5, Hangover 3: Rio, X-Men: Second Class, Bad Teacher 2, Transformers 4, Captain America 2, Smurfs 2, Return of the Planet of the Apes would all be justified, though I hope half of those don’t happen.

  5. Martin s says:

    Krill – you forgot More Help

  6. David Poland says:

    Yeah… trying to get a review on the arthouse numbers by Klady… there seem to be some problems…

  7. David Poland says:

    The Help 2: This Time, They’re Pissed!

  8. berg says:

    first she serves shit in a pie, what next?, the woman’s children cooked in a casserole

  9. Proman says:

    Decent percentage drop for Cowboys & Aliens. The movie is hanging in there.

  10. yancyskancy says:

    The Help 2: No Help at All. Or maybe Helpless?

  11. LexG says:

    I wish all women looked like Imogen Poots. Where can I meet a girl who looks LIKE THAT?

    One Day = best movie of 2011. I wish Poland would stop besmirching it. It’s a lot better than “An Education,” and didn’t he bone out over that trifle?

  12. David Poland says:

    Now I know you have to be doing satire, Proman. Seriously? You think there is something good about their numbers or that drop?

    Very Grimm, berg.

    The Help 2: Julia Child Teaches The White Bitches to Eat, Pray & Love

  13. David Poland says:

    I haven’t seen One Day, Lex. Just besmirching it’s box office and iffy marketing.

  14. al says:

    ‘The Help 2: Julia Child Teaches The White Bitches to Eat, Pray & Love’ = laughed out loud

  15. LexG says:

    It’s a nice movie and all, I get tired of the “white savior movie!” complaints, which usually come from sanctimonious white critics who if put to a test couldn’t tell Derek Luke from Rob Brown… and it’s not like they’d be BEATING DOWN THE DOOR to see a new Kimberly Elise/Elise Neal romcom, either.

    But… SPOILER:

    Did anyone else bristle that at the end of the movie, one maid’s terrible journey of racist misery is solved by… a nice white couple COOKING HER SOME FRIED CHICKEN? I mean, this woman’s gone through abuse and humiliation and unspeakable prejudice for an entire lifetime, but OOOOOH BOY, THERE’S SOME FRIED CHICKEN! It made me kind of sad in an uncomfortable way I can’t entirely explain.

  16. Hallick says:

    “The Helps Themselves” (to quell the PC riot cops)

  17. David Poland says:

    And what’s with that Hobbit dialect… don’t they know it’s 2011? We need to put all that Hobbit shit behind us. Middle-Earthian is what we prefer now.

    Yeah, I know that Frodo was the hero, but all those white people and dwarfs supporting him. Don’t people know by now that you have to respect the hobbit… that hobbits can do it for themselves!?!?!?

  18. JS Partisan says:

    Lex, this is the problem with you northerners: you just don’t get how the South works. When someone makes you a meal like that, when they make you the person of honour, and they are doing it because of something important (in this case saved their life) and it’s important to them that you feel comfortable in their house. That’s a big fucking deal. If you felt uncomfortable, you’re a northerner, and don’t get how southern hospitality works.

  19. berg says:

    I for one want to see Brad Pitt in his Burn After Reading character in Help 2 – “Are you concerned with the security of your shit”

  20. David Poland says:

    And Lex… in the context of the film, this is a white woman who she has raised – albeit at an advanced age – trying to reciprocate and show her lesson learned.

    In all the race arguing going on around the movie, there is little attention paid to the part of the film that is these women, who indeed have had their lives terribly limited, taking real pride in raising children well.

    There is a micro perspective and a macro perspective. The macro is what has so many people pissed off. It was an ugly time and this is not an ugly movie. But in micro, pride in a job well done and the hope that the next generation will be color blind or at least kinder, is real.

    See Bridge Over The River Kwai, which speaks to this as well as any film ever has. Guinness’ character is right. There is pride in doing the job right… dressing like proper soldiers even in those circumstances. And his men benefit from that. But in the end, you also have to blow the fucking bridge.

    The Help doesn’t blow the bridge. Comeuppance is embarrassment, not real pain. And that’s why it’s not really a great movie or idea. But it’s hardly the brain-damaged smile-past-the-racism movie that it’s been made out to be.

  21. DiggityDawg says:

    “The Help 2 : Second Help-ings”?

  22. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    THE HELP 2 aka Driving Miss Oprah to Amistad while Mississippi Burns and Crashes at Madea’s Family Reunion.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon