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David Poland

By David Poland

Klady's Friday Estimates – 10/7

The Departed opened on more than 1000 screens more than any Scorsese movie has opened on before. (Bringing Out The Dead, 1936 screens) It

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29 Responses to “Klady's Friday Estimates – 10/7”

  1. SpamDooley says:

    But where is this weeks vblog kvetch fest?
    I am Spam Dooley and I Keep a Close Watch on this heart of mine!

  2. abba_70s says:

    It’s hard to believe that “Employee” made half of what “Departed” did. Personally I expected “Departed” to be much higher but what the heck do I know?

  3. abba_70s says:

    ..Maybe Scorsese should cast Dane Cook in his next movie…

  4. SpamDooley says:

    I ask you this is all seriousness based on something you mentioned last week. Is Nikki Finke just a stupid kunt with a big mouth or what? Go read her BO report. Instead of pointing out that the $15m Chainsaw movie will cover its nut at the BO in the first weekend, she announces it disappointingly less than the original. Instead of touting the triumph of Departed she says it is less than expected and Warners sucks. What is her problem? Is she just a moron?
    I am Spam Dooley and I kill coppers!

  5. Crow T Robot says:

    I’ll see The Departed today but catching The Queen at The Arc last night was sheer fucking bliss. This is a sensationally entertaining movie — on par with last year’s Walk The Line in terms of smart, accessible grownup fare. The kind of movie you want to see again right away. (Interesting though how there’s all this drumming for Mirren as Actress but little for Michael Sheen in Supporting with his symbiotic performance as Tony Blair. You just can’t have one without the other — he’s the Clarice to her Hannibal)
    Anyway, this is a great great film that just about washed away the whole year of shit for me last night. No small feat there.

  6. Joseph says:

    I thought the Friday numbers for “The Departed” were very good. I think it may skew more to older audiences this weekend (what, with “Employee” and “Chainsaw” skewing the teenage crowd) so I expect a fine boost in Saturday numbers (since older audiences aren’t in a hurry to be there opening night). All and all I very good opening.

  7. David Poland says:

    Nikki has no knowledge of nor any interest in box office. She has an interest in links to Teh Drudge Report. All of her box office info comes from one studio that tells her what to think… and she transcribes. It is a joke. But so long as Drudge links to it, it will continue.
    Same with Wells, but from a different studio.

  8. jeffmcm says:

    Can you tell us which are the two studios? You seem to be rather coy about their names.

  9. sky_capitan says:

    I like this finke quote:
    “Jessica Simpson still can’t make the jump from music to movies”
    Simpsons’ last cd came out on August 29th, and isn’t even in the billboard hot 100 anymore.
    I’d say her music career is in worse shape than her movie career.

  10. Aladdin Sane says:

    Glad to see The Departed doing as good as it is (for a Scorsese pic and all). I’m seeing it tonight. Can’t wait.

  11. SpamDooley says:

    why not list the studios?
    I am SPAM DOOLEY and I use Garnier Fructis!

  12. abba_70s says:

    I used to use Garnier Fructis but my chest hair never did “volumize”

  13. austin111 says:

    I noticed on Moviefone yesterday that EOTM was the most requested movie but today it is The Departed.

  14. Wrecktum says:

    I understand that Scorsese is a hero for a older generation of moviegoers, but I thought that kids loved Goodfellas. With the high octane cast and the Goodfellas vibe, I’m surprised that more kids aren’t flocking to see The Departed.

  15. EDouglas says:

    David, how do you figure on $100 million domestic based on a $25 million opening? It made more than twice as much money as Scorsese’s other movies opening weekend (opening in 1,000 more theatres so there won’t be the added legs that come with expansion). It won’t have the bump from the holidays nor much from the Oscars, that is if it even gets nominated for anything, and it’s going to lose a lot, if not all, of its audience in two weeks to Flags of our Fathers/The Prestige and will probably be losing screens by the time Saw III comes out. I think figuring on a 4X opening overall multiplier for this movie based on Friday estimates is extremely optimistic. Like anything else, it’s certainly possible, but I think expecting the kinds of legs of Gangs and Aviator without the same circumstances is getting ahead of ourselves a bit here.

  16. David Poland says:

    Because I think th emore poeple see this film, the wider it will play.
    You underestimate just how narrow Scorsese’s reach has been. There is no reason a film for adults with plenty of teen-draw that teens don’t know about and will require word of mouth can’t be very leggy.
    Maybe it won’t be. Maybe it will be The Scorsese 70. Maybe not. We’ll see.

  17. Ladymerlin says:

    Maybe New Line can use some of the money from “Chainsaw” to give some promotion to “Little Children”.

  18. tfresca says:

    Saw Little Miss Sunshine Saturday night, great movie. Theater was about half full. Open Season was sold out as was Texas Chainsaw.. Employee was not and I don’t think the departed was either..I’d expect to see more anti-Internet stories unless Cook’s movie turns a corner. Since somehow he’ seen as an internet comic. It probably says something about the hatred many people have for Jessica Simpson. Who else thinks that if say Jennifer Alba was in this we could add another $4 to the weekend total at least?

  19. martin says:

    Alba would have definitely added some legitimacy, as it is it seemed kinda like a direct-to-vid to me that got theatrical cause a lead (Cook) suddenly got massively popular. And I don’t know the budget details or the tracking, but to me $15 mill for Employee seems like a VERY solid open. Was it really expected to do much more?

  20. The Carpetmuncher says:

    The “Scorcese 70,” that’s funny, I never heard that before. I think it goes over $100 mil, it’ll have legs, b/c it’s good, it’s got great word-of-mouth, and it’s got big stars. Plays to both high school kids (Leo & Matt Damon) and adults (Nicholson, Scorcese).
    I don’t think Alba opposite Cook does much better than Cook opposite Simpson, but probably a little. The thing is, Dane Cook isn’t a movie star, and neither is Ms. Simpson. And the movie looked pretty lame. I too hope both their moments have passed, but I doubt it…both cater to a dumb ass audience that will probably continue to tune in to them, so long as they’re on cable.
    (No offense to that dumb ass audience btw, but Cook shouldn’t have any fans outside the frat house, and Simpson would be the perfect gal, if only she never opened her mouth.)
    I feel the need to go see The Departed again, but I guess I should go check out The Queen…

  21. The three openers I think are pretty much gonna do as good as could be expected. With Texas, Saw III, The Grudge 2 the kids probably decided they’d choose 2 of the 3 to see.
    The producers for The Departed really shouldn’t of been expecting over $30mil. No R rated movie has made that much all year. $27mil is good.
    Employee… well, everything is positive, right? How can you see $12mil or so as disappointing for a movie it seemed as if nobody wanted to see. How is this only going to do slighly better than Waiting. Didn’t that movie only open to $6mil? Other places are reporting Employee started with $5mil on Friday, and not $4.2mil.
    And Open Season looks to be another mid-sized animated film.
    I love that The Illusionist feels like it’s been around for ages, but only has a gross of $32mil. Do we know what the actual budget of that movie was? It doesn’t look like some el cheapo pick up.

  22. jeffmcm says:

    “Alba would have definitely added some legitimacy”
    This is crazy to me. First of all because she’s a bad actress, only marginally better than Jessica Simpson, second of all because she hasn’t ever really opened a movie. Are we crediting Fantastic Four to her? I guess she has Honey to herself.

  23. The Carpetmuncher says:

    I don’t know about the budget, but The Illusionist is being self-distributed by the Yari Group after failing to get someone else to pay their price. But it has been doing quite well for a platform release, and has been doing so well because of word of mouth. It’s a sizeable hit for an indie.

  24. martin says:

    Illusionist has done enough to make the Prestige even a little jealous. No one expected that 4 months ago.

  25. jeffmcm says:

    They’re probably not too jealous, I would think The Prestige will open to over $20m.

  26. martin says:

    Perhaps Jeff, perhaps not.

  27. wolfgang says:

    BOM lists the production budget for The Illusionist at $16.5 million.
    Whether that’s accurate or not I can’t say, but I believe almost all of The Illusionist was filmed in Eastern Europe, where labor costs are a flat out bargain. Someone who works in low-budget film production told me the average wage in Eastern Europe is $100 a month.
    Looks like Yari’s film will do better than De Palma’s Black Dahlia, which was also filmed in Europe to hold down production costs.

  28. James Leer says:

    Alba’s only got surface assets and even those well-presented in a bikini couldn’t open “Into the Blue” to any more than $8 mil last year (she even had some mild “Sin City” buzz to coast on then).

  29. Into the Blue was a flawed concept from the get go. Girls wanna see hot guys minus clothes but don’t wanna go with their boyfriends because it means they get to ogle hot girls minus clothes.
    And vice versa.
    Plus, it looked awful.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon