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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Klady

friest082308corr.jpg
(Changed Out, 11:55a… waiting on corrected chart)
Okay. Trying to care…
I’m not sure how Steve Mason is pulling a Tropic Thunder win out of his ass this weekend, but anything is possible. If you base Tropic’s wekeend number on last weekend’s trajectory, it will do $16.2 million. If you base the House Bunny trajectory on Forgetting Sarah Marshall, the last comedy with female appeal targetting teens and college kids (along with Baby Mama, whose opening was almost identical), THB opens to $17.1 million. I can only assume that Mason is being told not to expect a Saturday bump because… uh… it’s not the date movie this weekend?
But again… anything can happen.
Much more likely to shrink like a hack director getting hit in the pants with ice water as Michael Bay dials up Natalie Marttinez’s cell number is Death Race, which will do a little better than last year’s Jason Statham August 24 opening, WAR.

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28 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady”

  1. Krazy Eyes says:

    I think there’s something off with your chart . . . and I’m not talking about The House Bunny being in the top spot.

  2. tjfar67 says:

    The numbers from Pinnapple Express on down seem off.
    Did “The Rocker” really tank that badly? It did look bad though.

  3. hepwa says:

    Congratulations to Lucas & company for the success of “The Clone Wars” on Friday.
    Eep…

  4. Rob says:

    PE, Longshots and Mummy are correct. Clone Wars, Mirrors and Mamma are off.
    For Hamlet 2’s sake, I hope its # is wrong too.

  5. hepwa says:

    Here’s the real numbers
    1) House Bunny 5.46
    2) Tropic Thunder 4.68
    3) Death Race 4.46
    4) Dark Knight 3.05
    5) Star Wars 2.04
    6) Mirrors 1.66
    7) Longshots 1.53
    8) Pineapple Express 1.49
    9) Mamma Mia! 1.35
    10)The Mummy 1.30

  6. mutinyco says:

    -Whoooo’s the Master?
    -Sho’nuff!

  7. David Poland says:

    The “real” numbers, Hep? Oy.

  8. SJRubinstein says:

    You can almost picture the chance reunion in the CAA lobby (or dare I say Independent Spirit/Academy Awards?) between Anna Faris, Emma Stone and Kat Dennings one day where they look back on “House Bunny” and laugh and laugh and laugh…
    Interesting to see Allen Covert get a full producer credit on a Happy Madison production he didn’t also write. Though he’s got a small cameo in “Bunny,” I wonder if this is the direction he’s heading towards full-time.

  9. anghus says:

    i don’t have any interest in The House Bunny, but the marketing for it was cute enough to understand it’s success. It seems pretty inoffensive

  10. YES! This is a win all around. Anna Faris gets a hit, LexG was completely wrong about Death Race and it stayed in typical Jason Statham range, that weird Fred Durst Ice Cube movie is a flop and Rainn Wilson embarasses himself and effectively kills off any chance of becoming an unconventional leading man.
    Will this be The Dark Knight‘s first w/e under $10mil though? I’m sure they’ll fudge the numbers if it’s close.

  11. IOIOIOI says:

    KC: he was not wrong about this weekend. He believed House Bunny would win going away. So he seems… right. WOO!!!

  12. scooterzz says:

    actually, on 8/21 lg said he didn’t see how house bunny could do better than death race at the box office….
    re: house bunny/anna faris — i will be very surprised if she doesn’t get a golden globe nomination for this…..

  13. LexG says:

    KC…
    Why the glee about Rainn Wilson tanking? Sure, that movie might look lame, but he’s a funny guy and a good actor. Rainn Wilson is awesome! (Leading man is another story, to be sure.)
    I was reeeeally wrong about DEATH RACE. I wasn’t basing that prediction so much on Statham’s track record (with which this is consistent), but just on the relentless marketing campaign target at teen and young males.
    This might be a case where living in L.A. gives you a VERY skewed perspective, and sometimes it’s just hard to judge:
    Head to some multiplex in the East Valley or San Gabriel Valley tonight to catch DEATH RACE, and literally every single seat will be filled, every show sold out, the place packed with 90% aggro young males, B-Boys, and street racer types, who will react to the film like manna is falling from the ceiling… you’d think you were witnessing the second coming of STAR WARS.
    Sometimes you have that experience here, and the numbers hit, and it’s something like “300” or “Wanted” where the rest of the country followed… other times it’s just an anomoly and not a good indicator that anyone in Kansas will care.

  14. LexG says:

    Too bad I’m still on CAP-WATCH, because I double-featured the OWNAGE of DEATH RACE with the completely disarming and delightful House Bunny, and would normally go on a capitalization bender describing the hotness and awesomeness of Anna Faris.
    But what scooterzz just said is spot on:
    There is absolutely NO reason why Faris shouldn’t get legit awards consideration for that performance.
    Also: EMMA STONE? More like EMMA ST-OWN. HOT. NESS. SO delightful. (Kat Dennings was cool too once she got her Gwen Stefani makeover YEP YEP.)

  15. Rob says:

    Hmmm, the surprisingly warm House Bunny reception has made me semi-curious. I like Faris, Dennings and Stone. On the other hand, the very sight of Rumer Willis makes me want to gouge out my eye with a grapefruit spoon. Is she in it much?

  16. jesse says:

    Rob, she’s not in it a lot, but it’s still arguably too much… I have nothing against her personally, but she and that McPhee girl take up time that would’ve been better used on Stone and Jennings. It’s kind of an awkward position where they have to have six or seven girls to make up even in a small, broken-down fraternity… but once you get past Stone and Jennings, there’s really no one to care about in their group.
    Faris is wonderful, and Stone is quite good, too. For the kind of fluffy comedy they’re aiming for, one wonderful performance along with another very charming one are pretty much enough (though my positive take on the movie is almost entirely due to Faris, and the rest of the movie not being bad enough to get in her way, even though it’s not very good). But I was secretly hoping for a movie like Bring It On or Ten Things I Hate About You, where it’s a little silly and fluffy, but also surprisingly good across the board. This is a bit more boilerplate. Peyton Reed probably could’ve made something of it — though it was a lot less crass than I expected from Fred Wolf, given his previous screen credits (and I say this as a huge fan of Dirty Work).

  17. scooterzz says:

    wow, jess…lots of qualifiers there….

  18. LexG says:

    Gotta hugely disagree with Jesse; A Peyton Reed might’ve made this a typical candy-coated campfest, as most “funny hot chick” flicks are. I liked that was fun, charming and sweet while still remaining a little sexy and raunchy for the guys as well. The Happy Madison touch and the overall eye candy made for a nice combination of something everyone could enjoy without being too lecherous for the ladies to handle, or too cheery/cheesy for the guys.
    And Kat McPhee OWNS YOUR ASS. McPHEEEEEEVER FOR LIFE.
    If any of the main chicks were redundant and unfunny, it wasn’t McPhee or Rumer but rather that hunchback… her stuff was the cringiest/lamest stuff in the movie.

  19. scooterzz says:

    lg– it’s kinda thrilling that you ‘got’ this movie…..
    for me, kat denning rules (but she spends most of the time looking like a post-adolescent emo boy so, i guess, i’m not the one to ask)….

  20. LexG says:

    Wait, Emma Stone is also in The Rocker????
    Details, please, anyone who’s seen it.

  21. scooterzz says:

    trust me…you DON’T want to spend money to see ‘the rocker’……

  22. Goulet says:

    THE ROCKER is basically a poor man’s SCHOOL OF ROCK, with sucky emo music… Emma Stone barely registers in it, she’s just playing this pseudo-Avril Lavigne girl who has a crush on the emo lead singer and gets annoyed at Rainn Wilson, until near the end when suddenly everyone gets along, etc.

  23. Bart Smith says:

    “I’m not sure how Steve Mason is pulling a Tropic Thunder win out of his ass this weekend, but anything is possible.”

    According to BOM, it looks like the possible has happened. TROPIC takes the weekend with $16.1 million over BUNNY’s $15.1 million.

  24. Cadavra says:

    “You can almost picture the chance reunion in the CAA lobby…between Anna Faris, Emma Stone and Kat Dennings one day where they look back on “House Bunny” and laugh and laugh and laugh…”
    Well, that would be three more laughs than I got out if it.

  25. ThriceDamned says:

    Despite DP’s misplaced misgivings about its overseas earning potential a couple of weeks back (sounded certain it wouldn’t even get into the top 10 – 914 million), it’s fairly obvious at this point that DK is going to break the billion dollar mark internationally.
    It’s at 870 million as of this weekend, with still numerous venues to open in, depreciating slowly in those markets its already opened in, and still has about 30 million left in it domestically. I’m looking for it to be the fourth film to break the billion dollar barrier in about 3 weeks or so, 4 at the latest.

  26. movieman says:

    That sure is a shitty bow for “Hamlet 2.” I bet Focus would’ve never positioned this for a wide-ish bow next Wednesday if they’d known just how lackluster its limited opening would turn out to be.
    Guess their “Little Miss Sunshine” dreams have officially ended.
    Jason Statham is turning into the white, Cockney equivalent of Tyler Perry. His films always seem to open at the same medium, “good-enough-to-get-the-next-job” level, yet they always have a finite ceiling due to zilch crossover appeal. At least Perry’s movies can be counted on for bigger opening weekends.
    Kind of surprised that “The Rocker” turned out to be d.o.a. They promo-ed this thing to death in the Cleveland market this summer and audiences really seemed to dig it (of course, the film’s Cleveland setting may have had something to do with it).
    Ah well.
    Considering its stealth ad/pub campaign, $4.3 for “The Longshots” isn’t really that bad. With Cube’s track record, it could’ve easily opened to $10-million or better if MGM/W had actually sold the damn thing. Caught it at a late matinee Saturday afternoon, and–much to my surprise–the theater was actually half-full. Not “terrible,” just sort of generic-bland.
    I expected something with a little more edge from Durst.
    Speaking of which: has anyone actually seen Durst’s directorial debut? I recall that it was decently reviewed at the Tribeca Film Festival, but to the best of my knowledge it never even received a home video release.
    Nice opening for “House Bunny.” As everyone has already noted, Farris is the best thing in it. But there are some incidental pleasures, including an amusing good-sport cameo by Hef.
    It’ll be interesting to see if “HB” has legs: it sure feels like a w.o.m.-type sleeper (e.g., “Legally Blonde”). I bet Sony would’ve sneaked this last weekend if there were actually such a thing as “sneak previews” anymore.

  27. David Poland says:

    Thrice… it might well make it to a billion. But the film has opened every major market now… just because Mojo can’t get specific-to-countries numbers reading Variety – which is where they get their international numbers, it seems – doesn’t mean that the markets aren’t open.
    There was a 10% difference between international and domestic on the last Batman movie. They may close that separation. Because of release patterns, there is currently a 12% separation. But yes, because of the massive domestic number, there is a chance that TDK will pass The Potters as WB’s biggest.
    A billion is possible.

  28. Lex, I’m not a fan of Wilson. Always the worst thing about anything I’ve seen him in. Juno and Six Feet Under especially. And, yes, I’m including The Office.
    Considering the Globes have nominated Witherspoon for Legally Blonde and Sandra Bullock for Miss Congeniality then Faris sure would be in the mix and that would make me happy. Unless the comedy/musical category is overflowing like it was last year where people like Katherine Heigl – an easy nom in quieter years – missed out.
    I’ve said it before and I’ll keep saying it – Bring it On was one of the very best movies of 2000 so I’m on board for any Peyton Reed love.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon