It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?
So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.
And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.
There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.
I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.
So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.
But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”
My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher
“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.
~ David Simon
“I still think they should have opened wide earlier. They would have eaten into Button a little over the holidays, but I feel their final gross domestically would have been at least $20 million higher.”
OK, I am asking a serious question here. I am not trying to be snarky or “condescending” or hectoring: Why do you feel this way? Because — and I know it’s always a dangerous thing to extrapolate from personal experience — I know people (including, to my surprise, my 22-year-old son) who have been eagerly awaiting this film. I think the platform release actually was a great idea. Why do you disagree?
I think the Button cume is off by $10M…
Wow, Gran Torino might be only the 4th film ever to have a $30 million weekend in January…after “Star Wars,” “Titanic” and “Cloverfield.” Clint’s still got it!
I think “Bride Wars” will finish about $10 million lower than “27 Dresses” when all is said and done. The reviews are even worse and the visceral reaction by some women is bound to hurt it.
Decent hold for “Rev Road” as it’ll finish with around $10,000 per in nearly 150 theatres. “The Wrestler” will shrivel to about $15,000 per on 48 by the end of the weekend…not a good sign. Even worse is “Last Chance Harvey.” This year’s Bucket List it ain’t…
Joe I think DP is the first to admit he’s no boxoffice guru. His kooky prediction of 40,000,000 wrestling fans turning THE WRESTLER into a blockbuster is why you should never listen to his analysis in this area. He’s always swinging for the trees.
I think the TORINO release was exceptionally handled and well executed.. even though the trailer made me want a rat to chew my sac, it reached out to a wider middle ground aud than many predicted. Happy for Clint even though the film is turgid and pretty embarrassing.
I know that Dave referred to this a few weeks ago and am curious – do you guys think Slumdog could really do $100 million? I would love for it be so!
This thing has been chugging along and looks to have around $40 million banked before the Oscar nods are announched – that’s pretty impressive. I figured originally that Searchlight had their eyes on Full Monty or Sideways numbers, but they have a decent shot at getting within a few notches of Juno if this thing (big if, of course) really cleans up the awards. If Benjamin Button takes the big awards, then who knows? But gotta give Searchlight credit on this one – I thought they were holding it back too long, does not look to be the case.
“Joe I think DP is the first to admit he’s no boxoffice guru.”
Er, no. I seriously doubt he would admit this.
I’m no great fan of SLUMDOG, feeling it’s overrated kinetic ride with a manufactured heart at its core. I don’t think it will make $100m but its still a great achievement for all involved.
Well I think DPs take is that everyone is in the same boat most of the time when it comes to predictions.
This site and others, back to the roughcut days, has had a few times where Poland and others did box office predictions. But Dave has since admitted it’s not something he’s good at, and it’s a gamble most lose at. You can have tons of box office history as well as tracking on your side, and you’ll still be wrong as often as you’re right. So MCN isn’t really in that game anymore.
Just out of curiousity, what box office prediction sites are still out there? I know gitesh pandiya generally does a decent job on predictions, and boxoffice prophets are pretty good, but short of those 2 I don’t know of any sites with real “pros” at the prediction game.
“Gran Torino” was set up perfectly. WB already had “Yes Man” for Xmas and didn’t want Jim Carrey to cancel Clint out.
“Bride Wars” is critic-proof because it’s a Chick Flick! I do know of at least 1 (male) critic who loved it.
Why does being a “chick flick” make it critic-proof, Chucky? That term usually applies to movies targeting teenage/young male demographics who typically ignore critics – are you saying “women” as a group are the same way?
Martin,
I think with regard BO predictions, the smarties left the room a while ago. Does anyone really care about weekend predictions? I know I don’t… I used to but after a while I realized I didn’t care because a lot of the films I had no interest in seeing anyway (around the time of Motel and Saw etc).
I tend to agree with Chucky that chick flicks are more critic proof than young teen/geek flicks. If critics say a geek flick is truly atrocious then the word gets out quick and it tanks. But even the more horrid chick flicks often times open well and then even have decent legs.
But the issue here isn’t a specific box office prediction, is it? Instead, it is the larger issue of whether the release strategy for Gran Torino is mistaken. (Whether the impact is a loss of $20 million or a little more or less isn’t the main question.) So Leydon’s point seems pretty fair to me. As a good journalist (which he is), Poland should be able to defend his position, and it would be interesting to see his rationale.
Matt, I suppose that’s the topic at hand. All I can say is that anecdotally I know a few people that were interested in seeing gran torino over xmas time and they were disappointed it wasn’t playing nearby. Why anyone is interested in seeing this movie, i have no idea. The trailer looked weak, it’s gotten bad reviews, and it looks like a cliched mess. But I suppose concept wins all in some situations, and there’s a lot of people that want to see a grizzly racist Clint in the hood.
Martin: I had the exact same thought. A lot of white people were chomping at the bit to see racist Clint throwing down on those rather tame looking GANG minorities. White people, man. White people.
That aside; Slumdog achieving 50m should be cause for celebration, because that flick is not Juno. It’s a quirky bit of cinema all of it’s own. If the people of the US MOVIEGOING audience get into it, even as a person that has ZERO DESIRE to see the film, that would be a cool thing. We need more bits of quirk in this world, when considering that people were chomping at the bit to see the white man put the MINORITIES in their PLACE.
What’s going on with MILK and FROST/NIXON? Those have been in limited for 5, 6 weeks, still not going very wide, the per-screens shrinking… I see NONSTOP TV ads for both on the networks and news channels, as if they were readily available everywhere. I assume they’re waiting for nominations to hit before they strike wide, but is word of mouth as pervasive as hoped for?
In other news: YAY!!! to THE UNBORN. Saw it. Actually think Goyer is one of the rare screenwriters-turned-directors who’s developing a nice visual style. Very handsome and sharp film, good use of widescreen, even a couple (though not enough) rather startling images (the dog mask at the outset is almost Lynch/Kubrick/Carpenter-level unsettling.) I think critics trip over themselves to come up with the most clever “ALL JANUARY MOVIES ARE CRAP!” bitter reviews. Like, yeah, Mr. Obvious, why not go out on a limb and make fun of GIGLI too while you’re at it?
But it was efficient and silly enough for a matinee timekiller. The Yust is smoking hot and engaging in the lead, Oldman has fun hamming it up in his too-few scenes, Idris Elba pops up mostly so the evil force can inhabit a more imposing foe than a little kid for the finale. Far from the worst PG-13 “teen girl” horror flick, despite the choppy pacing (at one point, James Remar as the dad disappears completely from the film with zero explanation.)
And NEVER saw that coming re: Gran Torino.
This opening reminds me of that Oscars where Chris Rock said there were only like ten “stars”, and then he was like “Look at Clint Eastwood! HE’S a star!”
I honestly can’t think of a more impressive display of pure star power all last year.
In other news, Michael C. Hall and Jennifer Carpenter got married, which is so weird and creepy on so many levels. Maybe they just did it to creep out their audience even further.
Oh, and sorry to carry this convo on from the last entry, but what’s the deal with Che’s titles? And when (and if) are the separate releases coming? Someone really needs to clean up the Wikipedia page.
I stopped doing weekly predictions even though my record of prediction was as good (or better, in most cases) than anyone else out there. I am pretty good at smelling it all out. But I also end up missing on certain films, like Iron Man or The Dark Knight and all I hear about is those – for-fucking-ever – and rarely experiencing anyone noticing the other 80% that was right, which is not nothing.
And you know… that’s fine. I don’t need to chase the ego stroke. It’s a guessing game with various degrees of knowledge. And spending my Wednesday and Thursday gathering information so I can guess what’s going to be news in 48 hours? Nah.
Additionally, I find the obsession level out there now, where we now have people guessing and often misreading actual early Friday figures… I mean… it’s stupid after a while.
We asked Klady to do Saturday numbers a few years back because it was being done all over. I sometimes consider stopping it. But many seem to like having the information readily available. So we still do it and I still post it on the blog.
Finally… I have been stating my opinion on Gran Torino for a month already. They are spending release dollars on a weekly basis for a month. So of course they were going to build interest. Of course they were going to have very large per-screens. And this opening makes perfect sense.
But the things that people see in the ads that brought them into theaters this weekend would have been the same things that brought them into the theater on December 19.
The box office difference is that in the 22-25 week, weekday box office is roughly double what it will be this upcoming week for this movie and all the others… and the week after that, the weekdays do about 4x what they will this next week.
Selling a movie for a month before releasing it wide is an awards strategy. It suggests that you either think you have a film that needs awards support for the sell or that you feel you will make up ground when nominations finally come out in late January.
Gran Torino is a commercial movie, first and last. Clint may get a nomination. (I will be saddened that a guy who so deserved it so many other times will get it for this misstep.) But an acting nod has no history of pushing more box office.
Ben Button had a $26.9 million first 3-day and $52.7 million in its first 7 days.
Cloverfield has a $40 million 3-day and did $51.6 million in its first 7 days.
Want a better movie as an example? Black Hawk Down did the same thing that Gran Torino has done. Awards run on 16 screens
IOI, I can understand your thoughts re: Gran Torino, but that’s really not what the film is about at all. I’d say that if anything, it’s Clint bidding the era of the ‘racist white man’ goodbye and welcoming an inclusive multicultural future. But that’s just me.
Martin, re: ‘geek flicks’ and ‘chick flicks’, it’s true that the audience for ‘geek flicks’ can get turned off fairly quickly (although usually only after the movie has pulled in a huge load of cash in its first weekend) but the point is that the things that ‘critics’ like and dislike aren’t the same things that the audiences like and dislike – and I would posit that the average, mainstream critic’s taste for ‘chick flicks’ is more aligned with the audience for those movies, than the audience for a teen/horror/fanboy movie, thus making them more ‘critic-proof’.
I’d also say that Gran Torino is a better movie than Black Hawk Down.
martin,
You imply that the critical consensus on “Gran Torino” has been largely negative, but that’s hardly accurate. The film has a 76% Tomatometer rating, its Metacritic score is 72, Dargis at the NY Times and Turan at the LA Times both raved it, Foundas at the LA Weekly called it the best American film of ’08, etc.
There may be a *minority* who dislike it, including Dave, but to say “it’s gotten bad reviews” as if that’s the majority critical opinion out there is misrepresenting what’s really the case.
Chick flicks like “Bride Wars” might be critic proof thanks to the fact that this kind of movie only comes around once in a blue moon and the audience for it is going to come flocking whether the guy in the newspaper liked it or not, whether he was right or not.
my theory is that for the majority of the movie-going population, most flicks are critic-proof; it’s word-of-mouth and TXTNG W TH KIDS THEZ DAYS that that makes or breaks the bank
Hallick,
I think the blue moon is occuring a lot more regularly… and with a lot more force. Prada, 27 Dresses, Mamma Mia, SATC, I know that that is only four BUT, they were sold big and bought big. But go back ten years, they really were once in a blue moon. You rightly say that the female audience flocked to see them regardless “whether the guy in the newspaper like it or not.’ I would also add, that the female audience flocked to see them regardless whether their guys want to see it or not.
I’ll make the argument more succinctly, and yeah there are exceptions like leahnz and obviously people like Dargis and Ella Taylor and Voynar who do this shit for a living, but I am going to make this point in PLAIN FUCKING ENGLISH:
MOST WOMEN HAVE TERRIBLE FUCKING TASTE IN MOVIES, they just like cutesy romcom FRIENDS style bullshit that, like JIM AND PAM on THE OFFICE and the music of ONE REPUBLIC, makes them feel all safe and secure because they are not edgy, and despite their bogus FEMINISM, they just want to get married before they get old and fat.
FUCK YEAH. BOW.
And on ANOTHER NOTE, fuck everything in the HISTORY OF ANYTHING EVER, FUCK IT ALL. I watched ENTOURAGE tonight and saw some rerun where VINNIE CHASE was hanging out at some club with LEIGHTON MEESTER, and this shit was LIKE FOUR YEARS AGO.
FUCK EVERYTHING.
NOT BEING FAMOUS is FUCKING BULLSHIT and MAN IS GOD and I’MA FUCKING CAPS LOCK THIS FUCKING SHIT ALL I FUCKING WANT, the WORLD IS BULLSHIT like FIONA APPLE SAID and ALL MEN SHOULD CHEAT ON THEIR WIVES and QUIT THEIR JOBS and BE A FUCKING GOD, MEDIOCRITY IS FUCKING BULLSHIT.
And keep IGNORING MY BRILLIANT FUCKING SHIT, POLAND, I only get 3000 FUCKING FAN MAILS A DAY and A BILLION POSTS IN MY FAVOR IN EVERY THREAD, HOW LONG CAN YOU AND RAY PRIDE DENY THE TRUTHNESS?
KIM VOYNAR OWNS but she gets her OWN PAID FUCKING BLOG THAT GETS ZEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEERO COMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMENTS EEEEEEEEEEEEVER. IF YOU HIRED ME I’D GET 9999999999999 COMMENTS A FUCKING DAY, I’M THE HOTTEST TICKET ON THIS FUCKER, and when I BLOW UP LIKE THE GOD COME TO EARTH that I am, I WILL FUCKING REMEMBER WHO PAID RESPECT and who CONDESCENDED.
EVERY WAKING SECOND THAT ANY MAN ISN’T FUCKING SOME HOT FAMOUS CHICK, HE IS A PIECE OF HUMAN GARBAGE FAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAILURE, I don’t give a FUCK.
I’M SICK OF THIS FUCKING SHIT.
Oh, yeah, and in personal news, BECAUSE I’M SO MOTHERFUCKING TALENTED, some audition tape I made got me a welcome to some THEATER PLAY, but YOU KNOW WHAT? I’MA TURN THAT SHIT DOWN because FUCK THEATER I want to BE IN FUCKING MOVIES, nobody goes to see some BITCH-ASS PLAY with some douchebags OVERACTING, TOM CRUISE hasn’t done a PLAY SINCE HIGH SCHOOL, just give me a FUCKING CAMERA and I WILL FUCKING DELIVER.
FAME IS GOD. ANYTHING LESS IS WEAK.
If I don’t fuck a RUSSIAN ESCORT by MIDNIGHT TUESDAY… well, I’ll probably drink some more vodka and still be a worthless fucking asshole.
FALLING OFF THE WAGON FUCKING OWNS, PARTY DOWN MOTHERFUCKERS GET CRUNK.
ALCOHOL OWNS and DR. DREW is a FUCKING SANCTIMONIOUS BITCH-ASS.
DRINK UP PUSSIES.
PUT THAT SHIT ON DEFAMER, BITCH.
I hate you so much.
But, really, why is it much worse for women to go to movies like Bride Wars over and over again and yet guys that go see shit like The Unborn are just “fans of the genre” or whatever.
But, again. I hate you. So much.
It really speaks for itself, doesn’t it?
LexG,
Isn’t there some other, more appropriate arena where you can address your issues? Go hug a tree or something.
lol internet drunk
rofl
These conversations make me wonder, to David Poland, are there any circumsances under which you would ban _anyone?_ because it looks like the only situation under which such an event would happen would be constant, direct personal attacks – which you have to admit, are not ideal for your readership.
This made my day.
And Kate Hudson is NOT hot.
“LexG is like the 80 MILLION DOLLAR MAN, a SURE FUCKING THING, the next BORAT or WILL FERRELL, certainly more brilliant than that ANGRY, MEAN, GRUMPY JACK BLACK”
Of course, those guys have their SAG cards.
Too Soon?
Just saw Ben Button over the weekend…what turgid CRAP! Pitt is so weak in the lead roll…NO TEARS at mama’s funeral…sat there in church as if he were at a screening of WANTED…wtf?!…too mod/stylish in his “hot Pitt” period…then seemed to stop aging backwards for good stretch of the film…”sister” disappeared!! Daisy didn’t seem to think/care about him continuing to age in reverse…who will take care of him when he’s a baby? NO emotional impact at end…Gump “appropriations” too numerous to mention, including Pitt’s perf…and sorry Gump hatahs, but this movie had nowhere Gump’s emotional payoff, which was EARNED. And, was its native format digital ‘cuz it looked…cheesy. Had that “digital filmed out to 35mm but never looks as good as native 35mm look.” Sorry for the rant!
Just saw Ben Button over the weekend…what turgid CRAP! Pitt is so weak in the lead roll…NO TEARS at mama’s funeral…sat there in church as if he were at a screening of WANTED…wtf?!…too mod/stylish in his “hot Pitt” period…then seemed to stop aging backwards for good stretch of the film…”sister” disappeared!! Daisy didn’t seem to think/care about him continuing to age in reverse…who will take care of him when he’s a baby? NO emotional impact at end…Gump “appropriations” too numerous to mention, including Pitt’s perf…and sorry Gump hatahs, but this movie had nowhere Gump’s emotional payoff, which was EARNED. And, was its native format digital ‘cuz it looked…cheesy. Had that “digital filmed out to 35mm but never looks as good as native 35mm look.” Sorry for the rant!
Just saw Ben Button over the weekend…what turgid CRAP! Pitt is so weak in the lead roll…NO TEARS at mama’s funeral…sat there in church as if he were at a screening of WANTED…wtf?!…too mod/stylish in his “hot Pitt” period…then seemed to stop aging backwards for good stretch of the film…”sister” disappeared!! Daisy didn’t seem to think/care about him continuing to age in reverse…who will take care of him when he’s a baby? NO emotional impact at end…Gump “appropriations” too numerous to mention, including Pitt’s perf…and sorry Gump hatahs, but this movie had nowhere Gump’s emotional payoff, which was EARNED. And, was its native format digital ‘cuz it looked…cheesy. Had that “digital filmed out to 35mm but never looks as good as native 35mm look.” Sorry for the rant!
Don’t ban Lex. There, I said it.
I’m with Christian. Some folks seem amused by his looney ravings, and the rest can just scroll past them. Better he should be home at his computer than out in the world doing hell knows what.
The Hot Blog isn’t a babysitting service.
Ethan, I’ve never quite gotten the Kate Hudson thing. And it’s obvious that women don’t respond to her either.
whats funny about people who defend Kate Hudson is that they will say things like “She was so good in Almost Famous”.
That was how many films ago?
Her body is fine. Her body of work is pretty awful.
At least The Unborn seems to have some neat touches, Kami. Bride Wars looks about as generic as you can get.