19 Weeks To Oscar: Season of Less

There were a lot of questions about the role of the festivals when Venice, Telluride, and Toronto didn’t offer the award explosion that media has been hyping into a frenzy for the last few years. In the lull between the end of the New York Film Festival and the Jolie-Pitt-driven opening night of AFI, it’s clear that there is more writing about awards, earlier in the season than ever… but a lot less to write about.

20 Weeks To Oscar: 20 Weeks To Go

Oh, the lists are flying fast & furious now. It’s open season again. Many possibilities.

In honor of everyone and their brothers (all absolute experts, make no mistake), I will throw some stuff at the wall today, as we are now 20 Weeks To Oscar.

23 Weeks To Oscar: The Less Things Change

An amazing thing happened at the festivals this last couple weeks…

Nothing.

Okay, perhaps nothing is an exaggeration.

But mostly, nothing.

26 Weeks To Oscar: Resetting The Field For The Very First Time

It’s early in the awards season… movies come and go. Where do things lay for the Best Picture competitors after Toronto announced its line-up this week?

Here’s The 2015-16 Award Season Schedule, Including HFPA, SAG, DGA, PGA, WGA, AMPAS

11/18/15 SAG Nomination Ballots Mailed 11/25/15 Golden Globes Nomination Ballots Mailed 12/7/15 SAG Nomination Ballots Due at 12pm PT 12/7/15 Golden Globes Nomination Ballots Mailed TBD WGA Preliminary Screenplay online voting begins 12/8/15 PGA Nomination Polling begins 12/9/15 SAG Awards Nominations announced 12/10/15 Golden Globe Nominations announced 12/14/15 DGA open online voting 12/16/15 SAG Final…

30 Weeks To Oscar: Trailer Parade (20 Currently Available)

Here are all the trailers currently available – some domestic, some international, one just a clip – for films from the broad contenders list published Monday.

30 Weeks To Oscar: Setting The Field

So our big list is already at 14. Let’s take it to 25 with titles with serious awards potential from major Oscar-playing distributors…

48 Weeks To Oscar: Academy In Crisis(?)

The grass always seems greener on the other side. But it is not always the case. In the case of The Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences, it is a sad story of insecurity, fear, oversized yet easily bruised ego, and a lack of perspective on itself.

51 Weeks To Oscar

The Academy is acting like a supermodel who is deeply worried that her boyfriend is going to leave because she has a zit. And the answer is, men do leave supermodels. And that insecurity haunts the most beautiful and the most plain. But when you are going out there for the show, if people start noticing you are insecure, your career is over. When you are in public, you need to be all in, turned on, rocking the world because you “know” you have what everyone else wants.

20 Weeks To Oscar… 3 Days Left

The irony of this moment is that with almost nothing left to say, the world’s media suddenly feels compelled to say EVERYTHING all at once.

Here’s the deal, as concisely as I can offer it…

Gurus o’ Gold: The Final Vote – Every Category (2 of 2)

Page 1 Page 1 Pre-Venice/Telluride/Toronto Best Picture Field Post-Venice/Telluride/Toronto Best Picture Field After New York… Just Before Selma & American Sniper Just After Selma & American Sniper Gurus o’ Gold: A Week From Thanksgiving, aka Screener Time Thanksgiving Week The Rise of Selma Gurus o’ Gold-n-Globes) The Top 8 Categories Heading Into The Holiday Break…

Gurus o’ Gold: The Final Vote – Every Category (1 of 2)

In the final vote of the season, The Gurus project only three changes in category leaders. They also envision The Grand Budapest Hotel winning the most Oscars, but not Best Picture. Boyhood will be the second most awarded with three. And two each for Birdman and American Sniper.

Are they right? The answers are coming on Sunday…

20 Weeks To Oscar: One Week Left

So the question… is it the failure of the system that there isn’t more clarity… or the genius?

Gurus o’ Gold: 6 Days Of Voting Left

It’s almost time for the party. The Gurus’ Best Picture chart features just one film moving up.

In addition, The Gurus offer which name they would not be surprised to hear on Oscar night when conventional wisdom says otherwise. And in that category, the is one clear standout.

20 Weeks To Oscar: What We Talk About When We Talk About Best Picture

The die is likely already cast, even if all the votes are not. My experience of talking to voters is that those who are waiting are trying to see the short film selections and perhaps a doc or foreign language film, not hedging on Best Picture.

But what that answer is… I can make a list… I make a list every week… but do I know? I must admit, I have never felt this far from knowing this far into the season in 17 years of doing this.

Gurus o’ Gold: Final Voting Starts This Week (2 of 2)

Page 1 of 2 Page 1 of 2 Pre-Venice/Telluride/Toronto Best Picture Field Post-Venice/Telluride/Toronto Best Picture Field After New York… Just Before Selma & American Sniper Just After Selma & American Sniper Gurus o’ Gold: A Week From Thanksgiving, aka Screener Time Thanksgiving Week The Rise of Selma Gurus o’ Gold-n-Globes) The Top 8 Categories Heading…

Gurus o’ Gold: Final Voting Starts This Week (1 of 2)

The Gurus go the whole 22 (excluding shorts) as The Academy voting is about to begin. There is a lot of movement, though the projected winner has only changed in 2 categories since Nomination Day.

Part 2 is here

20 Weeks To Oscar: Is The Door Wide Open Again?

Could the Academy’s bizarre preferential balloting system be the defining issue in coming to a Best Picture winner this year?

And let me note again, before going any further, that the existence of the preferential ballot system at The Academy is IDIOTIC and I will forever believe that this was a bad joke foisted on The Academy by an exiting Bruce Davis.

20 Weeks To Oscar: It’s Gettin’ Hot In Here

There are a lot of theories out there about how to read the tea leaves this season. But for me, the truth is that I have never seen anything quite like it.

PGA and SAG, Birdman. Globes, Boyhood and The Grand Budapest Hotel. LAFCA and NYFCC, Boyhood. Coming up in short order… DGA, BAFTA, WGA.

Gurus o’ Gold: A Week After Nominations… Any Changes?

The Gurus update their Best Picture picks and answer this question: Has the leader in any of the other categories changed, in your view, over the last week?