Friday Box Office Estimates

Focus unlikely to open to $20 million, which is not good news for any of the already superstar-deprived studios. The Lazarus Effect heads right back into the grave. Fifty Shades of Grey continues to drop like a pair of Anastasia’s panties.

And Oscar bumps arrive, but in minor fashion, for Birdman (estimated $530k Friday from last week’s $247k) and Still Alice ($750k from $685k).

The DVD Wrapup: Whiplash, The Connection, Fellini, Godard, Ozu, Gene Autry and more

What R. Lee Ermey was to Full Metal Jacket, J.K. Simmons is to Whiplash.

The Weekend Report

Although it took a sharp hit, American moviegoers continued to top Fifty Shades of Grey with an estimated $23.2 million. The session saw three new national releases open to fair if not-so-astounding figures headed by the inspiring (true) sport saga McFarland, USA with $11.1 million. Just a step behind was the high school comedy The Duff at $11 million with Hot Tub Time Machine 2 trailing with $5.8 million.

Friday Box Office Estimates

Not unexpectedly, Fifty Shades of Grey takes a big Friday-to-Friday drop, but still still dominate the weekend chart. Kingsman falls less sharply, as it settles into its sharpened, bouncy legs. Newcomer The Duff, released by Lionsgate for CBS Films, has a modest, but not Mortdecai launch that will actually be Top 4 all-time for CBS (out of 18 titles released). McFarland USA opens soft for Disney, but could find itself headed up the chart if it finds the family audience through the weekend. And Hot Tub Time Machine 2 opens to half what the original did.

The DVD Wrapup: Theory of Everything, Princess Kayuga, Big Hero 6, The Chair, Fear Clinic, Skating to New York, Brotherhood of Blades, Captain Scarlett … More

Having already won top honors in BAFTA, Golden Globes and SAG competition, Eddie Redmayne is as close to a mortal lock for a rare Grand Slam of acting awards as these things get.

The Weekend Report

Valentine’s Day provided considerable ardor for movie going with a record-breaking bow of approximately $81.8 million for the highly-anticipated 50 Shades of Grey, dominant internationally as well. Despite its potency, $35.6 million debut for runner-up Kingsman: The Secret Service seems to have been properly contracted submissive counterprogramming. The bigger story, however, is that with the strong openings of Kingsman and Spongebob, February 2015 has offered up two of the Top Six February openings of all-time and three of the Top 16 all-time. The only February explosion that comes close is when there were five $30m+ openings in February 2010. But this year’s three openings are just 8% short of the total opening grosses for all five of those 2010 films.

Friday Box Office Estimates

50 Shades of Grey is not exactly as earth-shattering a grosser as has been made out in the press, but it is mighty impressive nonetheless. It’sjust behind American Sniper as the best “opening” Friday of the year, though it had Thursday screenings. And it seems unlikely to match The Passion‘s February opening record of $83.8 million, but even if it did, Passion did $125 million by the end of opening weekend after a Wednesday opening. But again… super-strong not-so-record-breaking numbers.

Significantly behind 50 Shades, but still looking like the #4 opening of the year to date (not including American Sniper), is Kingsman: The Secret Service, which is a lot more kinky than 50 Shades. Look for a three-day in the mid-20s and a four-day just over 30.

American Sniper will crack $300 million domestic this long weekend. The only other Best Picture nominee still in the Top 10 is The Imitation Game, which is closing in on an $80m domestic gross.

What We Do In The Shadows leads in indie per-screen with about $4k-per yesterday on 5.

The DVD Wrapup: Kink, Maison Close, Dragon 2, Nekromantik 2 and more

Not having read the book upon which Fifty Shades of Grey was based, I won’t hazard a guess as to whether the movie is any more faithful to the source material than Adrian Lyne’s 9½ Weeks was to Elizabeth McNeill’s slim novel. Now, as then, reporters have begged their editors to be allowed to bring a professional dominatrix with them to a screening of Fifty Shades of Grey, merely to have her point out the differences between R-rated BDSM and the real deal, readily available on niche websites. As a public service to viewers who might be sufficiently titillated by what Christian Grey does to the virgin English-lit-major, Anastasia Steele, I suggest they work their way up the ladder to the revelatory documentary, Kink, by first checking out Luis Buñuel’s Belle de jour, Barbet Schroeder’s Maîtresse, Just Jaeckin’s Histoire d’O and Radley Metzger’s The Image, all of which are more artistic and couples-friendly than the horizon of hardcore and gonzo stuff on the Internet.

The DVD Wrapup: Nightcrawler, John Wick, Eleanor Rigby, Dear White People, Overnighters and more

If all that writer/director Dan Gilroy was attempting to do in Nightcrawler was, as he’s previously stated, shape an indictment of local television news and viewers who’ve sanctioned “If it bleeds, it leads” reporting, he’d be selling his movie terribly short. As a working principle, “If it bleeds, it leads” has informed news broadcasts for more than 30 years and now covers brush and warehouse fires, far-flung meteorological events, car crashes and Kardashian sightings.

The Weekend Report

The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge in the Water was the undisputed champion with a flushing estimated debut of $55.8 million. That left only disappointment for two other national newcomers. The futuristic Jupiter Ascending slotted third with $18.7 million while the supernatural power struggle Seventh Son bowed to $7.1 million.

Friday Box Office Estimates

A year ago, The Lego Movie opened on this weekend and blew people away with a $69 million launch. Spongebob will not quite do that, but with what looks like $50 million-plus, the film will certainly crack the Top 5 all-time February openings. With Fifty Shades of Grey coming next weekend and American Sniper breaking records, 2015 is getting off to a remarkable start. Jupiter Ascending could hit $20 million for the weekend… or not. But American Sniper has a good chance of pushing past it to take the #2 slot for the weekend. And Seventh Son may well do $7 million for the 3-day.

The Weekend Report

Go Patriots … regardless of your opinion of American Sniper, Clint Eastwood’s late-career phenom once again led session viewing with an estimated $31.5 million box office. The frame saw three new national releases that did not compete with Super Bowl Sunday. “Found footage” time-travel yarn Project Almanac arrived with $8.4 million while the tale of custody and race Black or White grossed $6.4 million. The Loft, a second remake of a 2008 Belgian film by its original director, struggled to $2.8 million.