Posts Tagged ‘The Last Station’

Weekend Box Office Report — December 26

Sunday, December 26th, 2010

Grit and Bear It

Little Fockers and True Grit led the Christmas charge with respective opening debuts estimated at $34 million and $25.5 million that topped weekend movie going. The session also featured a Christmas day bow for the animated Gulliver’s Travels, which netted a two-day gross of $6.9 million.

Bollywood’s seasonal offering Tees Maar Khann rang up an impressive $700,000. However, several other Hindi, Telegu and Tamil releases were non-starters. China’s If You Are the One 2 opened up day-and-date (a first) with its Mainland release and chimed in with a potent $208,000 launch.

The frame also featured a clutch of last-minute releases for award season consideration. Best of the bunch was Venice-prized Somewhere with $148,000 from seven venues. The animated The Illusionist displayed comparable strength with a two-day tally of $52,600 on two screens and a four screen push for Barney’s Version in Canada proved effective with $64,400 (a single U.S. Oscar qualifying run was unreported). Lastly, Country Strong lilted $33,800 from two sneak peeks.

Overall the Christmas session got clobbered with calendar positioning that landed the eve on Friday (expect something similar with New Years). And while an estimated $155 million weekend provided an 11% boost from the prior weekend it translated into a pounding 45% drop from 2009. As the door quickly closes on the year, box office gross has slipped behind the prior year and admissions are approaching close to double digit erosion. A year ago Avatar’s second weekend grossed $75.6 million and debuts of Sherlock Holmes and The Alvin Squeakquel added $62.4 million and $48.9 million respectively.

All that said, tracking wasn’t exactly on target for new entries and holdovers. The third in the Fockers series was expected to render a first weekend of between $40 million and $45 million while the sophomore edition of TRON: Legacy was pegged at $25 million. Conversely True Grit outperformed pundits soothsaying that had it shy of $20 million.

Holiday crowds clearly voted for The Fighter, Black Swan and The King’s Speech as their Oscar favorites. Still there are seven additional slots to fill and the campaigning is apt to intensify in the upcoming weeks.
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Weekend Estimates – December 24-26, 2010

Title Distributor Gross (average) % change * Theaters Cume
Little Fockers Uni 34.0 (9,610) NEW 3536 48.2
True Grit Par 25.5 (8,360) NEW 3047 36.6
Tron: Legacy BV 20.6 (5,960) -53% 3451 88.7
Chronicles of Narnia: Dawn Treader Fox 10.9 (3,240) -12% 3350 63.9
The Fighter Par/Alliance 8.6 (3,430) -29% 2511 27.7
Yogi Bear WB 8.4 (2,380) -55% 3515 36.3
Gulliver’s Travels * Fox 6.9 (2,700) NEW 2546 6.9
Tangled BV 6.7 (2,590) -24% 2582 143.8
Fox Searchlight 6.4 (4,390) -23% 1466 28.9
The Tourist Sony 5.6 (2,020) -35% 2756 41.1
The King’s Speech Weinstein Co. 4.6 (6,530) 317% 700 8.4
How Do You Know Sony 3.7 (1,480) -51% 2483 15.1
Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows, Part 1* WB 3.3 (1,920) -34% 1732 273.1
Tees Maar Khan UTV .70 (6,780) NEW 103 0.7
Due Date WB .37 (910) -71% 404 98.3
Unstoppable Fox .36 (920) -80% 393 78.5
Megamind Par .35 (460) -49% 764 142.6
Burlesque Sony .33 (660) -77% 501 36.7
The Social Network Sony .31 (1,230) 9% 249 92.3
If You Are the One 2 China Lion .21 (9,040) NEW 23 0.21
127 Hours Fox Searchlight .20 (1,720) -64% 115 9.8
* Christmas Day opening
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $145.90
% Change (Last Year) -45%
% Change (Last Week) 11%
Also debuting/expanding
Somewhere Focus .15 (21,140) 7 0.2
Rabbit Hole Lionsgate 88,700 (2,610) 65% 34 0.16
Barney’s Version eOne 64,400 (16,100) 4 0.06
Casino Jack IDP 60,500 (4,030) 75% 15 0.11
The Illusionist * Sony Classics 52,600 (26,300) 2 0.05
Country Strong Sony 33,800 (16,900) 2 0.05
The Tempest Miramax/Maple 32,700 (2,520) -44% 13 0.19
Toonpur Ka Superhero Eros 9,600 (400) 24 0.01
Isi Life Mein Rajshri 4,500 (250) 18 0.01

Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 – Dec. 23, 2010)

Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Warner Bros. (30) 1861 18.40%
Paramount (19) 1634.7 16.10%
Fox (19) 1442.4 14.20%
Buena Vista (17) 1349.1 13.30%
Sony (26) 1239.1 12.20%
Universal (18) 798.7 7.90%
Summit (11) 522.2 5.20%
Lionsgate (16) 519.3 5.10%
Fox Searchlight (8) 105 1.00%
Overture (8) 87.4 0.90%
Focus (7) 75.2 0.70%
CBS (3) 72.5 0.70%
Weinstein Co. (9) 65.5 0.60%
Sony Classics (22) 59.5 0.60%
MGM (1) 50.4 0.50%
Other * (317) 253.5 2.50%
10135.5 100.00%
* none greater than .04%

Top Limited Releases * (Jan. 1 – Dec. 23, 2010)

Title Distributor Gross
Hubble 3D WB 19,359,509
The Ghost Writer Summit 15,569,712
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Music Box/Alliance 11,287,817
The Young Victoria * Apparition/Alliance 11,131,232
127 Hours Fox Searchlight 9,321,571
Get Low Sony Classics 9,106,802
Fair Game Summit 8,650,388
A Single Man * Weinstein Co. 7,935,872
The Girl Who Played with Fire Music Box/Alliance 7,848,496
Cyrus Fox Searchlight 7,461,082
Babies Focus 7,444,272
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus E1/Sony Classics 7,394,171
Conviction Fox Searchlight 6,768,063
City Island Anchor Bay 6,671,036
The Last Station Sony Classics 6,617,867
Waiting for “Superman” Par Vantage 6,410,257
The Secret in Their Eyes Sony Classics 6,391,436
It’s Kind of a Funny Story Focus 6,362,514
Winter’s Bone Roadside Attraction 6,237,371
Under the Sea 3D * WB 5,732,362
* does not include 2009 box office

Weekend Box Office Report — November 28

Sunday, November 28th, 2010

Tangled Up in Blues … and Reds

A quartet of new releases for Thanksgiving failed to topple Harry Potter from the top of the charts during the gobble, gobble fest. The first part of the Potter finale — Deathly Hallows — grossed an estimated $51.2 million for the weekend portion of the holiday frame. Just a cluck behind was the animated Rapunzel of Tangled with $49.2 million ($69.1 million for the 5-days).

The other three wide release freshmen clustered in positions five to seven with indifferent results. The glitzy musical Burlesque crooned $11.4 million, rom-com Love and Other Drugs ingested $9.6 million and Faster added a tortoise-paced $8.2 million.

The big noise of the session proved to be the well positioned awards contender The King’s Speech that amassed a heady $86,000 screen average from just four venues. There was also an impressive $610,000 for local hockey comedy Lance et compte in Quebec, but a dull $212,000 for Bollywood entry Break Ke Baad. And a new seasonal Nutcracker in 3D was virtually D.O.A. with a $62,700 tally from 42 screens.

Adding it all up, Thanksgiving box office was a smidgen less than last year’s result.

Industry trackers generally predicted that Deathly Hallows would prevail at the box office but few anticipated that Tangled would be truly competitive with the Hogwart’s grad. They also generally over estimated the strengths of the remaining trio of new entries; especially Faster, which was given the edge over Love and Other Drugs.

Overall weekend numbers added up to roughly $187 million that translated into a 6% decline from the immediate prior session. It was also a slight 1% decline from Thanksgiving weekend 2009 when The Twilight Saga: New Moon and The Blind Side led with respectively $42.9 million and $40.1 million. The top new entry, Old Dogs, ranked fourth with $16.9 million.

The current session also saw expansions for 127 Hours and Fair Game that were encouraging but nonetheless displayed signs of fatigue. Still with critics groups just weeks away from announcements both films could well experience second winds. The potent arrival of The King’s Speech however has put that film in the forefront and its now vying with a real royal wedding as well as a smattering of pictures yet to be seen for late year honors.

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Weekend Estimates – November 26-28, 2010

Title Distributor Gross (average) % change * Theaters Cume
Harry Potter & the Deathly Hollows, Part 1* WB 51.2 (12,420) -59% 4125 221.2
Tangled BV 49.2 (13,660) NEW 3603 69.1
Megamind Par 12.9 (3,770) -20% 3411 130.5
Unstoppable Fox 11.7 (3,670) -10% 3183 60.6
Burlesque Sony 11.4 (3,740) NEW 3037 16.8
Love and Other Drugs Fox 9.6 (3,920) NEW 2455 13.8
Faster CBS 8.2 (3,360) NEW 2451 11.8
Due Date WB 7.2 (2,830) -19% 2555 84.9
The Next Three Days Lionsgate 4.8 (1,860) -27% 2564 14.5
Morning Glory Par 4.0 (1,630) -24% 2441 26.4
127 Hours Searchlight 1.7 (5,900) 89% 293 4.4
Fair Game Summit 1.6 (3,960) 8% 396 6
For Colored Girls … Lionsgate 1.4 (2,360) -38% 605 36.6
Red Summit 1.4 (1,540) -43% 914 86.2
Skyline Uni/Alliance 1.1 (900) -70% 1189 20.1
The Social Network Sony .73 (2,510) -22% 291 90.4
Secretariat BV .66 (1.310) -32% 502 57.6
Lance et compte Seville .61 (6,930) NEW 88 0.61
The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet’s Nest Music Box/Alliance .36 (1,970) -10% 184 4.2
Despicable Me Uni .35 (1,320) 31% 266 249.7
The King’s Speech Weinstein Co. .34 (86,030) NEW 4 0.34
Inside Job Sony Classics .31 (2,330) -9% 132 2.6
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $179.40
% Change (Last Year) -1%
% Change (Last Week) -6%
Also debuting/expanding
Break Ke Baad Reliance .21 (2,500) 85 0.33
Nutcracker 3D FreeStyle 62,700 (1,490) 42 0.09
Made in Dagenham Sony Classics 62.500 (5,680) 64% 11 0.12
The Legend of Pale Male Balcony 11,400 (11,400) 1 0.01
The Unjust CJ 7,200 (7,200) 1 0.01
Tere Ishq Nachaye Eros 4,200 (200) 21 0.01

Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 – Nov. 21, 2010)

Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Warner Bros. (27) 1674.1 17.80%
Paramount (18) 1578.1 16.70%
Fox (17) 1333.8 14.10%
Buena Vista (15) 1174.6 12.50%
Sony (23) 1161.6 12.30%
Universal (18) 793.9 8.40%
Summit (11) 512.7 5.40%
Lionsgate (15) 500.4 5.30%
Overture (7) 81.8 0.90%
Fox Searchlight (7) 81.4 0.90%
Focus (7) 75.2 0.80%
Weinstein Co. (7) 62.6 0.70%
Sony Classics (21) 57.8 0.60%
MGM (1) 51.2 0.50%
CBS (2) 50 0.50%
Other * (296) 242.7 2.60%
9431.9 100.00%
* none greater than .04%

Top Limited Releases * (Jan. 1 – Nov. 21, 2010)

Title Distributor Gross
Hubble 3D WB 18,355,494
The Ghost Writer Summit 15,569,712
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Music Box/Alliance 11,282,938
The Young Victoria * Apparition/Alliance 11,131,232
Get Low Sony Classics 9,080,285
A Single Man * Weinstein Co. 7,935,872
The Girl Who Played with Fire Music Box/Alliance 7,837,823
Cyrus Fox Searchlight 7,461,082
Babies Focus 7,444,272
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnasus * E1/Sony Classics 7,394,171
City Island Anchor Bay 6,671,036
The Last Station Sony Classics 6,617,867
The Secret in Their Eyes Sony Classics 6,391,436
It’s Kind of a Funny Story Focus 6,350,058
Winter’s Bone Roadside Attraction 6,225,414
Waiting for “Superman” Par Vantage 6,130,466
Under the Sea 3D * WB 5,504,062
Precious Lions Gate 5,085,319
I Am Love Magnolia 5,002,411
An Education * Sony Classics 4,963,224
* does not include 2009 box office

Weekend Box Office Report – October 31

Sunday, October 31st, 2010

See … Saw … Ouch!

Saw 3D whipped into cinemas with an estimated $24.3 million to take top spot in weekend movie going. Distributors gave a wide berth to the Halloween frame when traditionally there are sharp drops in attendance; making the Saw finale the sole new national release.

A different sort of ghoul — the Millennium finale The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet’s Nest — went limited wide to solid returns of $890,000, but otherwise the frame’s new entries were dominated by niche and exclusive launches. The best of the bunch was the Chinese trembler Aftershock with a single screen entry of $17,600. Other newcomers with good but not spectacular returns included indie drama Welcome to the Riley’s, Brit spy spoof Wild Target, Mexican prize winner Nora’s Will, Claude Chabrol’s final effort Bellamy and non-fiction entry Waste Land.

Overall box office saw a sharp fall from last weekend and a slight bump from 2009 results.

The seventh annual edition of the Saw franchise was hoping for an exit with bite with the addition of stereoscopic imagery. But pre-release tracking indicated that with or without gimmicks the mania was fading and its mid-$20 million weekend tally was pretty much in line with pundit’s predictions. The gore crowd would appear to be sated with current splatter fare but the past month has seen every segment of the audience unenthusiastic for the new crop of movies beyond their opening sessions.

The global juggernaut for the Millennium trilogy continued with the U.S. bow of The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet’s Nest. The first installment, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, has racked up $99 million internationally and it and its second chapter are the top grossing foreign-language movies in America post-Pan’s Labyrinth.

Weekend revenues generated about $95 million in sales that translated into a 28% drop from the immediate prior session. It was a modest 6% improvement from 2009 when Michael Jackson: This Is It bowed to $23.2 million followed by Paranormal Activity with $16.4 million.

The fact-based Conviction expanded nationally to fair results and appears to be headed to the same sort of indifferent commercial returns as the rest of the early award season contenders. A sharp drop for last weekend’s Hereafter departs from the sort of holds associated with recent films directed by Clint Eastwood whereas the better than expected stamina of the geezer spies of RED has confounded box office mavens.

But apart from Jackass 3D (which passed a $100 million tally this weekend) such well-reviewed positive word-of-mouth entries as The Social Network and Secretariat have struggled to maintain a presence (forget about momentum) in a marketplace that has all but eliminated the possibility of a second wind.

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Weekend Estimates – October 29-31, 2010

Title Distributor Gross (average) % change * Theaters Cume
Saw 3D Lionsgate 24.3 (8,660) New 2808 24.3
Paranormal Activity 2 Par 16.4 (5,070) -60% 3239 65.6
Red Summit 10.9 (3,250) -28% 3349 59
Jackass 3D Par 8.5 (2,720) -60% 3139 101.7
Hereafter WB 6.4 (2,630) -47% 2424 22.2
Secretariat BV 5.0 (1,610) -28% 3108 44.7
The Social Network Sony 4.7 (1,690) -36% 2767 79.7
Life As We Know It WB 4.1 (1,440) -33% 2860 43.6
The Town WB 2.0 (1,250) -27% 1608 87.7
Conviction Fox Searchlight 1.8 (3,220) 501% 565 2.4
Legend of the Guardians WB 1.8 (880) -46% 2010 52.7
Easy A Sony 1.1(880) -37% 1262 56.3
The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet’s Nest Music Box/Alliance .89 (5,830) New 152 0.89
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps Fox .78 (840) -37% 933 51.2
Waiting for “Superman” Par Vantage .52 (1,580) -33% 330 4.6
Devil Uni .51 (800) -21% 635 33.1
Alpha and Omega Lionsgate .48 (710) -34% 676 24.1
It’s Kind of a Funny Story Focus .46 (960) -32% 477 5.8
You Again BV .41 (610) -37% 673 24.7
You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger Sony Classics .33 (1,022) -24% 323 2.4
Toy Story 3 BV .31 (920) -34% 337 413.9
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $89.70
% Change (Last Year) 6%
% Change (Last Week) -28%
Also debuting/expanding
Stone Overture .22 (1,760) -39% 125 1.2
Nowhere Boy Weinstein Co. .13 (840) -62% 153 1
10.50 Alliance 55,800 (4,290) 13 0.06
Welcome to the Riley’s IDP 41,600 (4,160) 10 0.04
Nora’s Will Menemsha 25,300 (4,220) 6 0.03
Wild Target FreeStyle 23,200 (5,800) 4 0.02
Bellamy IFC 19,700 (9,850) 2 0.02
Monsters Magnolia 18,100 (6,030) 3 0.02
Aftershock AMC 17,600 (17,600) 1 0.02
Waste Land Arthouse 10.300 (10,300) 1 0.01
Walkaway IABA 9,400 (360) 26 0.01
Strange Powers Variance 4,800 (4,800) 1 0.01
The Kids Grow Up Shadow 4,600 (4,600) 1 0.01

Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 – Oct. 28, 2010)

Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Warner Bros. (25) 1436.3 16.40%
Paramount (16) 1389.1 15.90%
Fox (16) 1289.8 14.70%
Buena Vista (15) 1155.5 13.20%
Sony (23) 1142.4 13.10%
Universal (17) 774.3 8.90%
Summit (10) 473.3 5.40%
Lionsgate (12) 412.7 4.70%
Overture (7) 80.6 0.90%
Focus (7) 74.1 0.80%
Fox Searchlight (6) 73.4 0.80%
Weinstein Co. (7) 61.9 0.70%
Sony Classics (21) 54.7 0.60%
MGM (1) 51.2 0.60%
CBS (2) 50 0.60%
Other * (277) 229.7 2.70%
8749 100.00%
* none greater than .04%

Top Limited Releases * (Jan. 1 – Oct. 28, 2010)

Title Distributor Gross
Hubble 3D WB 17,246,918
The Ghost Writer Summit 15,569,712
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Music Box/Alliance 11,270,373
The Young Victoria * Apparition/Alliance 11,131,232
Get Low Sony Classics 8,980,294
A Single Man * Weinstein Co. 7,935,872
The Girl Who Played with Fire Music Box/Alliance 7,768,761
Cyrus Fox Searchlight 7,461,082
Babies Focus 7,444,272
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus * E1/Sony Classics 7,394,171
City Island Anchor Bay 6,671,036
The Last Station Sony Classics 6,617,867
The Secret in Their Eyes Sony Classics 6,391,436
Winter’s Bone Roadside Attractions 6,204,696
It’s Kind of a Funny Story Focus 5,342,641
Under the Sea 3D * WB 5,256,073
I Am Love Magnolia 4,982,446
An Education * Sony Classics 4,963,224
The Hurt Locker * Summit 4,531,548
Solitary Man Anchor Bay 4,360,548
* does not include 2009 box office

March 5

Friday, March 5th, 2010
……….……………………………
x
1
The Hurt Locker
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
147
2
Avatar
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
2
3
2
2
138
3
Inglourious Basterds
4
5
3
3
3
3
3
3
6
3
3
3
4
3
3
113
4
Up in the Air
3
3
4
4
5
4
5
4
4
4
5
5
2
4
4
106
5
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
5
4
5
5
6
6
4
5
5
8
4
4
7
5
5
87
6
Up
6
7
7
6
9
5
7
6
7
5
7
6
5
7
7
68
7
An Education
7
6
6
8
8
8
6
7
8
7
6
7
6
6
8
61
8
The Blind Side
9
10
10
7
4
7
9
10
3
6
10
10
8
10
6
46
9
District 9
8
9
8
9
10
9
8
8
10
9
8
9
9
8
9
34
10
A Serious Man
10
8
9
10
7
10
10
9
9
10
9
8
10
9
10
27

* Greg Ellwood moved Avatar to #1.
* Anne Thompson moved The Blind Side from #7 to #10, A Serious Man from #8 to #9, District 9 from #9 to #8, and Up from #10 to #7.
* Anthony Breznican moved The Hurt Locker from #3 to #1, Avatar from #1 to #2, and Up in the Air from #2 to #3

.

……….……………………………
x
1
Kathryn Bigelow
The Hurt Locker
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
75
2
James Cameron
Avatar
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
59
3
Quentin Tarantino
Inglourious Basterds
2
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
44
4
Jason Reitman
Up in the Air
4
3
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
4
5
5
4
4
4
27
5
Lee Daniels
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
5
5
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
5
5
5
20
………………………………………..
x
1
Jeff Bridges
Crazy Heart
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
75
2
Jeremy Renner
The Hurt Locker
2
2
5
4
2
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
51
3
George Clooney
Up in the Air
4
3
2
3
3
2
4
3
3
4
4
3
3
3
2
44
4
Colin Firth
A Single Man
3
4
3
2
4
4
3
4
4
3
3
4
4
4
4
37
5
Morgan Freeman
Invictus
5
5
4
5
5
3
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
18
……………………………………….
x
1
Sandra Bullock
The Blind Side
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
73
2
Meryl Streep
Julie and Julia
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
3
2
2
2
60
3
Carey Mulligan
An Education
4
4
3
3
4
4
3
3
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
39
4
Gabourey Sidibe
Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
2
3
4
4
3
3
4
4
5
4
4
2
4
4
4
36
5
Helen Mirren
The Last Station
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
3
5
5
5
5
5
5
17
* Pete Hammond moved Meryl Streep to #2.
.
………………………………………
x
1
Mo’Nique
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
75
2
Maggie Gyllenhaal
Crazy Heart
3
4
4
4
2
5
2
3
3
4
2
2
2
2
3
45
3
Anna Kendrick
Up in the Air
4
2
2
2
5
3
3
2
4
2
3
4
3
2
43
4
Vera Farmiga
Up in the Air
2
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
2
3
4
3
4
4
37
5
Penelope Cruz
Nine
5
5
5
5
3
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
19
…………………………………….
x
1
Christoph Waltz
Inglourious Basterds
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
75
2
Woody Harrelson
The Messenger
3
2
2
3
3
4
2
2
4
2
2
2
3
2
3
51
3
Christopher Plummer
The Last Station
4
5
4
2
2
2
4
4
2
3
3
2
3
4
40
4
Stanely Tucci
The Lovely Bones
2
4
5
5
4
3
3
3
3
4
5
4
4
2
33
5
Matt Damon
Invictus
5
3
3
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
20
……..……………………………..
x
1
The Hurt Locker
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
69
2
Inglourious Basterds
2
1
2
1
1
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
66
3
Up
3
5
3
3
4
5
3
3
5
3
3
3
3
3
4
37
4
A Serious Man
5
4
4
4
3
4
4
5
3
4
5
5
4
3
27
5
The Messenger
4
3
5
5
5
3
5
4
4
5
4
4
5
5
23
………………………………………
x
1
Up in the Air
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
73
2
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
2
2
4
2
2
2
2
3
4
2
2
3
2
3
4
51
3
An Education
3
3
5
3
4
4
3
2
2
3
1
5
3
2
2
45
4
In the Loop
4
4
2
4
3
5
4
4
3
4
5
2
5
5
5
31
5
District 9
5
5
3
5
5
3
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
25
……….……………………………
x
The White Ribbon
Germany
1
1
1
3
3
1
2
1
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
61
Un Prophete
France
2
2
3
2
4
2
3
2
1
3
2
1
3
3
2
55
El Secreto de Sus Ojos
Argentina
4
4
2
1
1
3
1
3
3
1
4
1
1
4
51
Ajami
Israel
3
5
4
4
2
4
5
4
4
4
3
4
4
3
31
The Milk of Sorrow
Peru
5
3
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
17
……….……………………………
x
The Cove
Nominees TBD
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
73
Food, Inc
Robert Kenner, Elise Pearlstein
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
58
Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg & the Pentagon Papers
Judith Ehrlich, Rick Goldsmith
3
4
2
4
1
3
3
5
3
5
3
5
4
3
36
Which Way Home
Rebecca Cammisa
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
3
4
4
4
3
3
2
5
28
Burma VJ
Anders Østergaard , Lise Lense-Møller
4
3
4
3
4
4
5
4
5
3
5
4
5
4
27
………………………………………..
x
Up
Pete Docter
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
75
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Wes Anderson
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
3
3
51
Coraline
Henry Selick
4
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
2
4
2
2
46
The Princess and the Frog
John Musker and Ron Clements
3
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
4
5
3
4
4
28
The Secret of Kells
Tomm Moore
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
16
……………………………………….
x
Avatar
Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
74
Sherlock Holmes
Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
3
4
4
3
2
2
2
3
5
4
2
2
2
2
44
Nine
Art Direction: John Myhre Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
2
3
3
4
3
5
3
2
3
5
3
3
3
5
37
The Young Victoria
Art Direction: Patrice Vermette Set Decoration: Maggie Gray
4
5
5
2
4
3
4
4
4
3
5
2
4
4
3
34
The Imaginarium of Dr Parnassus
Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
5
1
2
5
5
4
5
5
2
2
4
5
5
4
30
………………………………………
x
Avatar
Mauro Fiore
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
72
The Hurt Locker
Barry Ackroyd
2
3
2
3
1
2
1
2
2
1
2
2
4
3
2
58
Inglourious Basterds
Robert Richardson
3
4
3
2
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
3
46
The White Ribbon
Christian Berger
5
2
5
4
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
4
5
32
Harry Potter & the Half-Blood Prince
Bruno Delbonnel
4
5
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
17
Greg Ellwood and Pete Hammond moved Avatar to #1.
…………………………………….
x
The Young Victoria
Sandy Powell
1
4
1
1
3
1
1
1
4
1
1
1
1
1
1
67
Bright Star
Janet Patterson
4
2
3
4
2
2
2
2
5
2
5
3
3
3
3
45
Nine
Colleen Atwood
2
5
2
3
1
5
3
4
1
5
2
2
2
2
45
Coco Before Chanel
Catherine Leterrier
3
1
4
2
4
3
5
3
3
4
3
2
4
5
4
40
The Imaginarium of Dr Parnassus
Monique Prudhomme
5
3
5
5
5
4
4
5
2
3
4
5
4
5
25
……..……………………………..
x
The Hurt Locker
Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
2
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
70
Avatar
Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
1
2
63
Inglourious Basterds
Sally Menke
3
4
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
42
District 9
Julian Clarke
4
1
3
4
4
3
4
5
4
5
5
4
4
4
30
Precious
Joe Klotz
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
4
4
5
5
5
17
Susan Wloszczyna moved Hurt Locker to #1.
.
………………………………………
x
Up
Michael Giacchino
1
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
68
Avatar
James Horner
3
2
2
2
2
1
3
2
2
2
1
2
2
3
2
60
The Hurt Locker
Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
2
4
5
5
3
2
2
5
3
3
2
3
3
5
3
41
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Alexandre Desplat
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
4
4
4
5
27
Sherlock Holmes
Hans Zimmer
5
4
3
5
5
5
3
4
4
5
5
2
4
25
Susan Wloszczyna moved Up to #1.
.
………………………………………
x
“The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)
Crazy Heart
Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
75
“Down in New Orleans”
The Princess and the Frog
Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
2
4
3
2
5
2
4
4
3
2
2
2
3
2
3
47
Take it All”
Nine
Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
3
2
4
4
2
4
2
2
2
4
5
2
3
4
41
“Almost There”
The Princess and the Frog
Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
4
3
2
3
4
3
3
3
4
3
3
4
4
2
39
“Loin de Paname”
Paris 36
Music by Reinhardt Wagner Lyric by Frank Thomas
5
5
5
5
2
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
18
………………………………………
x
Avatar
Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
72
The Hurt Locker
Paul N.J. Ottoson
2
4
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
3
2
2
1
60
Inglourious Basterds
Wylie Stateman
3
5
5
3
3
3
4
4
3
3
3
2
4
3
3
39
Star Trek
Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
4
2
3
4
5
4
3
3
4
5
4
3
4
4
32
Up
Michael Silvers and Tom Myers
5
3
4
5
4
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
19
Pete Hammond and Greg Ellwood moved Avatar to number one.
.
………………………………………
x
Star Trek
Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
2
70
The Young Victoria
Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore
1
3
2
2
1
2
2
2
3
2
2
1
2
2
1
62
Il Divo
Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
3
3
3
48
* Anne Thompson moved Star Trek to #1.
………………………………………
x
Avatar
Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
2
69
The Hurt Locker
Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
66
Inglourious Basterds
Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
4
4
4
3
3
3
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
39
Star Trek
Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson, Peter J. Devlin
3
3
3
4
5
4
3
3
4
5
4
4
5
4
30
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
3
5
18
* Anne Thompson moved The Hurt Locker from #5 to #2, Transformers from #2 to #3, and Star Trek from #3 to #5
………………………………………
x
Avatar
Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
75
District 9
Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken
3
2
2
3
2
2
3
3
3
2
2
2
3
2
50
Star Trek
Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton
2
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
2
3
3
3
2
3
48

NOTE: Changes from last week are marked in bold.

The Gurus

Scott Bowles
…… USA Today
Anthony Breznican
…… USA Today
Greg Ellwood
——–HitFix
Pete Hammond
…… LAT Envelope
Eugene Hernandez
…… indieWIRE
Peter Howell
…… The Toronto Star
Dave Karger
…… Entertainment Weekly
Mark Olsen
…….LA Times


David Poland
…… MCN
Steve Pond
…… The Wrap
Sasha Stone
…… AwardsDaily.com
Sean Smith
…… Entertainment Weekly
Kris Tapley
…… In Contention
Anne Thompson
…… Thompson On Hollywood
Susan Wloszczyna
…… USA Today

9 Days To Go, Going Dark

Friday, February 26th, 2010

It’s been quite a week. I started this week’s 20 Weeks column a few days ago. Back then, the story was about how the two frontrunners in the race are movies that I have been embedded with – for lack of a better term – from their first public screenings, so I will be happy whichever way it goes… and indeed, even in the case of many of the upset possibilities.

Yesterday, the column idea morphed into a bit of anger at the media for going buck wild, trying to start a fire here at the tail end of the voting period with very little real ammunition. And as has become the ugly standard in entertainment media, one weak story can start a firestorm of idiocy, as the “look at me” specialists feel a lack of attention requires further falsely-nuclear offerings to draw fear and page views.

Today, as Summit forced Nicolas Chartier into hiding, cancelling an interview I set up weeks ago which was delayed by Chartier’s trip to the Berlin Festival (where he first found money for The Hurt Locker), and sent out its various media manipulators to spin the minor story, the column became, for me, about a studio flexing its ability to control the allegedly truth-seeking media… at least for a weekend and a couple of days, as The Academy has graciously decided to stay out of the Chartier story and not make any ruling about his possible punishment until the day after polls close.

To recount… I went from writing about the most peaceful, civil, sane Oscar season in my decade-long career of closely covering these races to absolute and unrelenting rage about the ridiculous behavior of the media, Summit (standing alone in this particular misguided thinking because of the circumstance of whom they are in business with), and even The Academy, for reasons I will indicate forthwith.

Of course, time tends to lessen rage.

And so, after a breath, I will recount rather than throw bombs.

My first interest in Nic Chartier came from Mark Boal’s Oscar reaction press release in which he singled out Chartier for appreciation. And the truth is, in every conversation about the funding of the movie and in every interview, Boal has been clearly grateful to Chartier for being the one person/company that wanted to make this movie.

And once the movie was funded, this first-time producer, became a pain in the ass according to just about everyone involved. A volatile, demanding, sometime disruptive personality. After jumping into the project because he wanted to be in business with Kathryn Bigelow, her cut was too long, too slow, etc… which may have distracted, but was overruled by the fact that she had final cut. Thank God.

And Summit is no happier with the guy than Boal & Bigelow.

However… he did earn his place at the table by getting the money. And in a season that has been rather calm, setting Nic Chartier off by letting him get excluded from the Oscar nomination was seen as an extremely dangerous choice. Better to have him on the team, hopefully malleable, rather than to have him angry and ranting.

Still, when I made a request to shoot and interview with the guy after the nominations were announced three weeks ago, he was contacted, no one objected, and the date was set for his post-Berlin return to LA… the day of this writing… February 26.

And today… no dice.

Summit was not prepared to take a chance on Chartier making a bad situation worse.

However, at the same time, Pete Hammond, not exactly the hardest-edged journalist we know, was posting even more e-mail notes, this time ones sent to individuals, that allegedly infringed on Academy rules. So why no rush to plug up the leak… to mea cupla this to silence… to Hugh Grant it?

Well, this is where the clever publicists and the pliant media come in. One of the town’s early Nikki Whisperers, Paul Pflug, does corporate for Summit, and he pulled Nikki Finke out of his pocket, put her on his lap, and yanked her string. Yesterday, she claimed, “I’ll show how this is but the tip of the iceberg. I have a complete wrap-up on why this was the worst Oscar campaign season for media manipulation I can remember. And I’ll be naming names.”

Of course, she knows nothing and has no actual contact with the Oscar season, other than to threaten executives to give her gossip – or to trade not running nasty slander in payment for future gossip – late in the game after others have mined the news.

I would tell you more about Tom Sherak’s Academy president brief career as a Nikki Whisperer, but the only relevant thing in that is that The Academy, which ends up being represented from many different and not-necessarily synced angles, does not have clean hands in the gossip-ication of the season either.

Like I said before, this was not a nasty season. Not by comparison to any of the decade of seasons I have closely covered. And the most obvious “media manipulation” remains hers.

To wit, yesterday, Finke pooh-poohed the Chartier story. And today, she told the story that Summit told her to tell. “I do think, however, that the Los Angeles Times should have explained in its posting that there was no other mass mailing to Oscar voters by Chartier. It makes a difference. Because can you imagine if Hollywood’s private correspondence about the Oscar pics were monitored by the Academy Awards rules police?”

Uh… how does she know this is true? Answer: she doesn’t.

But more importantly, the very same “Academy Awards rules police” she mocked the day before for not having any fangs still had no fangs… only Summit was still scared to death that they might. As is obvious to anyone who has been paying attention, The Academy, for all the grandeur, pretty much let’s people do what people do – gossip, personal glad handing, cocktails – and only gets involved when public explosions happen.

Back at the LA Times, Pete Hammond was, indeed, posting the story about more e-mails. Why? Because the first non-story got so much attention.

And of course, there was the downright idiotic story yesterday that couldn’t come close to making up its mind whether The Hurt Locker was a documentary or abusive to soldiers because it made them seem too heroic. Are you kidding me?!?!

Of course, the Oscar Monkeys – which ST VanArsdale, who is about as interested in Oscar as Kevin Spacey is in Penthouse, has somehow joined the ranks of – turned this into some Harvey Weinstein conspiracy… which is a load of excrement of an epic size. This media obsession with Harvey and Oscar is the only obsession that grossly outweighs Harvey’s own obsession with Oscar.

Why was this stupid story – which has already been done elsewhere… months ago – done now? Because there was a Truman National Security Project screening of the film on Wednesday. Why were there a group of stories about Inglourious Basterds and A Serious Man and the relationship of those films to Jews done? Because Weinstein started pushing the Jewish angle by doing screenings and discussions for rabbis and Jewish groups. This is not brain surgery. People are looking for stories and stunts in which nominated films participate create stories.

And let’s be crystal clear now… an aging story about Tarantino buying the last revival house in Los Angeles is not negative campaigning. It’s positive campaigning. That piece – while perhaps a bad editorial choice by the LA Times – should not be put in the same sentence as the few truly negative (though minor) things going on this season.

Meanwhile, in a happily pale reflection of Nikki, Anne Thompson at IndieWIRE was offering the tale of 42 West with no facts … except for the word of 42 West. “Despite the whisper campaign against 42 West (which had done much to push Hurt Locker toward the winner’s circle), Chartier did indeed act alone.”

I ’m not saying that she’s wrong. I am saying that she doesn’t have any way at all of knowing the truth of the situation.

And 42 West as a victim! Wow. That’s a great story. Yeah, they get accused of being more mighty manipulators than they are. If it was 1963, someone would accuse them of killing Kennedy to turn the tide against Dr. Strangelove and back to My Fair Lady. But victim? As much as Avatar is a victim. One day of the fourth weekend of Avatar at the domestic box office alone outgrossed the entire worldwide theatrical life of The Hurt Locker. Let’s be real. Nic Chartier’s e-mails may have been obnoxious, but if Avatar’s Oscar story hasn’t been told well enough to win, getting caught in the Goliath tale for the last month is at fault, not “Crazy Nic” or “Hard Chargin’ Harv.”

Wrapping up … Chartier a problem… Summit scared of him dropping another shoe… 42 West not interested in being accused of being behind the e-mails… Bigelow & Boal feeling helpless and exposed even though they did nothing wrong at all.

For the media, desperation to find any story that anyone cares about this late in a rather boring season … overhype of the Chartier story followed by excessive willingness to swallow what they are told when pressed hard by the flacks… and at the same time, dragging the usual suspects in front of the firing squad with absolutely no proof of any kind. In other words, failure to use judgment going either direction.

And if you have read me more than once, you know that nothing pisses me off more than hypocrisy. I am no fan of bad behavior and I won ’t be an apologist for it, but real people with real reputations are being spotlighted and smeared in all of this… people who did nothing wrong… people who are doing business as usual… spending millions to manipulate this race, this year just as every year before, as the Academy looks the other way.

If some of us in the media want to get hard about the season, great. Do some serious reporting. There is plenty to expose. And someone may care. Of course, most will not, as in the end, The Academy is a Country Club with a theater instead of a gold course.

And oh, the irony that all this screaming is going on over some e-mails in pursuit of a little gold statue when the movie in the center of it is about real men who put their lives on the line to protect our nation daily.

And so … the pleasure of this week has turned to irritation… at publicists… and studios… at journalists… at myself for forgetting how petty all of these concerns really are.

I have, as I have all season, had the opportunity to spend time with some of the people who are nominated, but more important, have contributed mightily to the best work in commercial cinema this year. From Jon Landau, who very civilly discussed this Chartier mess from a hotel room in upstate New York, to composers Horner, Desplat, and Giacchino, to cinematographer Barry Ackroyd, to Robert Kenner, who made Food, Inc. And those are just the Oscar nominees from this week’s shoots. They are what’s important. Their work is what we are celebrating.

I am a lucky man.

Everyone associated with The Hurt Locker and Avatar and all the other nominees … lucky and talented people.

We in media have been partners with the savvy publicists and executives in the commoditizing of the awards season. And this doesn ’t often bring out the best in us… any of us.

In the end, wild card or not, I will not get the chance to hear Nic Chartier ’s perspective on putting together one of the great films of 2010. And that’s a shame too.

But in 10 days, all of this will be history. And most of us can go back to worrying about Robert Pattinson ’s sex life. Proud times.

February 26, 2010
– by David Poland

February 25

Thursday, February 25th, 2010
……….……………………………
x
1
The Hurt Locker
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
146
2
Avatar
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
2
3
2
2
137
3
Inglourious Basterds
4
5
3
3
3
3
3
3
6
3
3
3
4
3
3
113
4
Up in the Air
3
2
4
4
5
4
5
4
4
4
5
5
2
4
4
106
5
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
5
4
5
5
6
6
4
5
5
8
4
4
7
5
5
87
6
Up
6
7
7
6
9
5
7
6
7
5
7
6
5
10
7
65
7
An Education
7
6
6
8
8
8
6
7
8
7
6
7
6
6
8
61
8
The Blind Side
9
10
10
7
4
7
9
10
3
6
10
10
8
7
6
49
9
District 9
8
9
8
9
10
9
8
8
10
9
8
9
9
9
9
33
10
A Serious Man
10
8
9
10
7
10
10
9
9
10
9
8
10
8
10
28

……….……………………………
x
1
Kathryn Bigelow
The Hurt Locker
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
75
2
James Cameron
Avatar
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
59
3
Quentin Tarantino
Inglourious Basterds
2
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
44
4
Jason Reitman
Up in the Air
4
3
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
4
5
5
4
4
4
27
5
Lee Daniels
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
5
5
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
5
5
5
20
………………………………………..
x
1
Jeff Bridges
Crazy Heart
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
75
2
Jeremy Renner
The Hurt Locker
2
2
5
4
2
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
51
3
George Clooney
Up in the Air
4
3
2
3
3
2
4
3
3
4
4
3
3
3
2
44
4
Colin Firth
A Single Man
3
4
3
2
4
4
3
4
4
3
3
4
4
4
4
37
5
Morgan Freeman
Invictus
5
5
4
5
5
3
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
18
……………………………………….
x
1
Sandra Bullock
The Blind Side
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
73
2
Meryl Streep
Julie and Julia
3
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
3
2
2
2
59
3
Carey Mulligan
An Education
4
4
3
2
4
4
3
3
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
40
4
Gabourey Sidibe
Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
2
3
4
4
3
3
4
4
5
4
4
2
4
4
4
36
5
Helen Mirren
The Last Station
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
3
5
5
5
5
5
5
17
………………………………………
x
1
Mo’Nique
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
75
2
Maggie Gyllenhaal
Crazy Heart
3
4
4
4
2
5
2
3
3
4
2
2
2
2
3
45
3
Anna Kendrick
Up in the Air
4
2
2
2
5
3
3
2
4
2
3
4
3
2
43
4
Vera Farmiga
Up in the Air
2
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
2
3
4
3
4
4
37
5
Penelope Cruz
Nine
5
5
5
5
3
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
19
…………………………………….
x
1
Christoph Waltz
Inglourious Basterds
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
75
2
Woody Harrelson
The Messenger
3
2
2
3
3
4
2
2
4
2
2
2
3
2
3
51
3
Christopher Plummer
The Last Station
4
5
4
2
2
2
4
4
2
3
3
2
3
4
40
4
Stanely Tucci
The Lovely Bones
2
4
5
5
4
3
3
3
3
4
5
4
4
2
33
5
Matt Damon
Invictus
5
3
3
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
20
……..……………………………..
x
1
The Hurt Locker
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
69
2
Inglourious Basterds
2
1
2
1
1
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
66
3
Up
3
5
3
3
4
5
3
3
5
3
3
3
3
3
4
37
4
A Serious Man
5
4
4
4
3
4
4
5
3
4
5
5
4
3
27
5
The Messenger
4
3
5
5
5
3
5
4
4
5
4
4
5
5
23
………………………………………
x
1
Up in the Air
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
73
2
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
2
2
4
2
2
2
2
3
4
2
2
3
2
3
4
51
3
An Education
3
3
5
3
4
4
3
2
2
3
1
5
3
2
2
45
4
In the Loop
4
4
2
4
3
5
4
4
3
4
5
2
5
5
5
31
5
District 9
5
5
3
5
5
3
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
25
……….……………………………
x
The White Ribbon
Germany
1
1
1
3
3
1
2
1
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
61
Un Prophete
France
2
2
3
2
4
2
3
2
1
3
2
1
3
3
2
55
El Secreto de Sus Ojos
Argentina
4
4
2
1
1
3
1
3
3
1
4
1
1
4
51
Ajami
Israel
3
5
4
4
2
4
5
4
4
4
3
4
4
3
31
The Milk of Sorrow
Peru
5
3
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
17
……….……………………………
x
The Cove
Nominees TBD
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
73
Food, Inc
Robert Kenner, Elise Pearlstein
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
58
Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg & the Pentagon Papers
Judith Ehrlich, Rick Goldsmith
3
4
2
4
1
3
3
5
3
5
3
5
4
3
36
Which Way Home
Rebecca Cammisa
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
3
4
4
4
3
3
2
5
28
Burma VJ
Anders Østergaard , Lise Lense-Møller
4
3
4
3
4
4
5
4
5
3
5
4
5
4
27
………………………………………..
x
Up
Pete Docter
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
75
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Wes Anderson
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
3
3
51
Coraline
Henry Selick
4
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
2
4
2
2
46
The Princess and the Frog
John Musker and Ron Clements
3
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
4
5
3
4
4
28
The Secret of Kells
Tomm Moore
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
16
……………………………………….
x
Avatar
Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
74
Sherlock Holmes
Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
3
4
4
3
2
2
2
3
5
4
2
2
2
2
44
Nine
Art Direction: John Myhre Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
2
3
3
4
3
5
3
2
3
5
3
3
3
5
37
The Young Victoria
Art Direction: Patrice Vermette Set Decoration: Maggie Gray
4
5
5
2
4
3
4
4
4
3
5
2
4
4
3
34
The Imaginarium of Dr Parnassus
Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
5
1
2
5
5
4
5
5
2
2
4
5
5
4
30
………………………………………
x
Avatar
Mauro Fiore
1
1
2
3
2
1
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
69
The Hurt Locker
Barry Ackroyd
2
3
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
2
2
4
3
2
61
Inglourious Basterds
Robert Richardson
3
4
3
2
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
3
45
The White Ribbon
Christian Berger
5
2
5
4
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
4
5
32
Harry Potter & the Half-Blood Prince
Bruno Delbonnel
4
5
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
17
…………………………………….
x
The Young Victoria
Sandy Powell
1
4
1
1
3
1
1
1
4
1
1
1
1
1
1
67
Bright Star
Janet Patterson
4
2
3
4
2
2
2
2
5
2
5
3
3
3
3
45
Nine
Colleen Atwood
2
5
2
3
1
5
3
4
1
5
2
2
2
2
45
Coco Before Chanel
Catherine Leterrier
3
1
4
2
4
3
5
3
3
4
3
2
4
5
4
40
The Imaginarium of Dr Parnassus
Monique Prudhomme
5
3
5
5
5
4
4
5
2
3
4
5
4
5
25
……..……………………………..
x
The Hurt Locker
Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
2
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
2
2
69
Avatar
Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
1
1
64
Inglourious Basterds
Sally Menke
3
4
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
42
District 9
Julian Clarke
4
1
3
4
4
3
4
5
4
5
5
4
4
4
30
Precious
Joe Klotz
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
4
4
5
5
5
17
………………………………………
x
Up
Michael Giacchino
1
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
1
4
68
Avatar
James Horner
3
2
2
2
2
1
3
2
2
2
1
2
2
3
1
60
The Hurt Locker
Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
2
4
5
5
3
2
2
5
3
3
2
3
3
5
2
41
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Alexandre Desplat
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
4
4
4
5
27
Sherlock Holmes
Hans Zimmer
5
4
3
5
5
5
3
4
4
5
5
2
3
25
………………………………………
x
“The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)
Crazy Heart
Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
75
“Down in New Orleans”
The Princess and the Frog
Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
2
4
3
2
5
2
4
4
3
2
2
2
3
2
3
47
Take it All”
Nine
Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
3
2
4
4
2
4
2
2
2
4
5
2
3
4
41
“Almost There”
The Princess and the Frog
Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
4
3
2
3
4
3
3
3
4
3
3
4
4
2
39
“Loin de Paname”
Paris 36
Music by Reinhardt Wagner Lyric by Frank Thomas
5
5
5
5
2
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
18
………………………………………
x
Avatar
Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
70
The Hurt Locker
Paul N.J. Ottoson
2
4
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
3
2
2
1
62
Inglourious Basterds
Wylie Stateman
3
5
5
3
3
3
4
4
3
3
3
2
4
3
3
39
Star Trek
Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
4
2
3
4
5
4
3
3
4
5
4
3
4
4
32
Up
Michael Silvers and Tom Myers
5
3
4
5
4
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
19
………………………………………
x
Star Trek
Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
3
1
2
2
69
The Young Victoria
Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore
1
3
2
2
1
2
2
2
3
2
2
1
2
1
1
63
Il Divo
Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
3
3
3
48
………………………………………
x
Avatar
Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
2
69
The Hurt Locker
Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
5
1
63
Inglourious Basterds
Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
4
4
4
3
3
3
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
39
Star Trek
Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson, Peter J. Devlin
3
3
3
4
5
4
3
3
4
5
4
4
3
4
32
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
2
5
19
………………………………………
x
Avatar
Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
75
District 9
Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken
3
2
2
3
2
2
3
3
3
2
2
2
3
2
50
Star Trek
Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton
2
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
2
3
3
3
2
3
48

The Gurus

Scott Bowles
…… USA Today
Anthony Breznican
…… USA Today
Greg Ellwood
——–HitFix
Pete Hammond
…… LAT Envelope
Eugene Hernandez
…… indieWIRE
Peter Howell
…… The Toronto Star
Dave Karger
…… Entertainment Weekly
Mark Olsen
…….LA Times

David Poland
…… MCN
Steve Pond
…… The Wrap
Sasha Stone
…… AwardsDaily.com
Sean Smith
…… Entertainment Weekly
Kris Tapley
…… In Contention
Anne Thompson
…… Thompson On Hollywood
Susan Wloszczyna
…… USA Today

16 Days To Go, Backing Into The End Zone

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

It’s fourth down, 16 days to go, and even though one team is poised to score and put the game out of reach, they can’t just kick the field goal… they need to go for it. Because this year, the game seems to be about who has “the ball” last.

“The ball,” of course, is The Narrative of the Season.

What’s tricky is not so much figuring out what “your” film’s narrative is, but figuring out how to move it down the field. Too aggressive and you can make a mistake and give it up to the other team. Too passive and you can nickel & dime your way effectively only to find yourself stalled after making too many positive plays in a row.

There have been years, like when The Departed won, in which I really wasn’t sure what the answer was going to be. There were too many films with too many good answers and no clear choice to be made. I wasn’t stunned when The Departed won. It was my favorite in the group and I was amongst the first to note that the film was more than simply a Scorsese payback vehicle. I also looked at history and saw the rarity of a film as violent as this one winning. But it was, in a tight field, the favorite of the voters. But being favorite isn’t always the key to winning. In fact, it rarely is.

The narrative for The Hurt Locker is, “We’re the underdog… we will allow you to feel great about awarding the first female director ever… you like us, you really really like us… and there’s not a lick of CG in our masterful little film… the kind of film Hollywood should be making but forgets to… send a message that you want more quality films.”

Good story. And a great film with great work by director Bigelow and on down the line.

But the only reason this narrative works this year is because of the other great narrative…

“Over 2.5 BILLION dollars. We are the biggest f-ing film in history. We are leading the way to all the things that keep this town working. You want to raise ticket prices? People were willing to pay $3 premiums in a recession to watch our movie… at least 200 million people dug deeper into their pockets. You want to see how the future will work? Forget about the blue people and look at the ability to create a completely believable, living breathing photo real universe. We’re doing over $150m in China, folks… land of the illegal DVD… almost 4 times the previous record holder for an American film. International is where the money is… and we have the Godzilla of international grosses… $1.7 billion and counting…

And you heard about that budget? Not only wasn’t it the most expensive film ever, but by breaking through technologically, the film opens the door to films with smaller budgets and ambitions to use this technology at a price, much as CG has become standard in most studio movies, even if only to clean things up. (And yeah, Hurt Locker… that includes you!) When you look back at what film got Best Picture 20 years from now, what movie will be remembered most fondly… what film is a landmark? And you can thank us for the ratings that might save the Academy’s deal with ABC at something close to the current price, thanks.”

Of course, neither film can make their case for themselves or to paint their rival as a loser so plainly. And both films carry unspoken burdens. The Hurt Locker didn’t make as much as the disastrous Amelia in theaters. The Academy has a long history of not rewarding that kind of box office failure. And the story for Hurt Locker is no better overseas. On the other hand, there is a tendency to see Avatar as a kids movie, a cartoon, a mega-budget spectacle reaching out for the lowest common denominator.

Ironically, The Hurt Locker benefits from the mistake of including the then-unereleased film into the Independent Spirit Awards last year, eliminating the “win on Saturday (now Friday), lose on Sunday” thing as an issue. The only love Hurt Locker can still get is Oscar. And Avatar, ironically, benefits from some of the negative attention the media showered on it all fall, turning its quality into a surprise… a key narrative shifter.

And the other narratives?

Inglourious Basterds ramped up, seeing an opportunity, a few weeks ago. And pretty much overshot its wad. The problem being, there is no real narrative to sell. Tarantino doesn’t “have it coming.” The movie’s appeal to women is limited. It’s a well-liked movie, but it neither works as an underdog or as a game changer. It’s the latest example of the media being Harvey Weinstein’s pet.

No one is a better salesman than Mr Weinstein. And he’s been selling HARD. But he only wins when he has the right hand. And media needs to learn that when they play “Follow The Queen” with The King of Selling You What You Didnn’t Mean To Buy, the red card isn’t on the table, no matter what they want to believe they see.

The truth is, the effort went right past a surge into overhype and the clear scent of desperation. Count that one as over.

Up In The Air has a similar problem on the narrative, though not the desperation part. Paramount has handled the push about as well as could be expected. UITA wants to be “the film of the moment,” but it butts up against the two front runners on that count. Box office is solid, as it the passion for the film. But for all the attention, the discussion of the film has gone nearly silent, except for a highly possible screenplay win.

Another popular narrative of the moment is a false one, being perpetrated onto the race in a real way… the “how they count” spin. Yes, the methodology is odd and could have an effect on the outcome… but the odds are strongly against it. The ONLY scenario in which it is a game changer is if there is a film with massive 1-slot support and very little else above a 4-slot or 5-slot vote.

The answer is really simple, actually. If the film doesn’t have the support of 50% of The Academy in the top 3 slots, it was highly unlikely to win anyway. In fact, a straight “pick a winner” vote, with 10 nominees, is much more likely, in my opinion, to result in an upset than the system in place. 1000 votes or less probably wins the Oscar in that case. In a five-film vote, that border was probably around 1800 votes. And now, it demands a majority. That’s great. That said, it still favors the front-runners and makes an upset even less likely.

But don’t let me get in the way of the favorite upset narrative of the month, which is designed by those selling it less to grab votes than it is to loosen the hold on votes by those frontrunners. The only way it works is if it causes a couple of thousand voters to decide they should push Avatar and The Hurt Locker out of their Top 3 because they aren’t going to win anyway. Good luck with that. (“They” even have the adorably brain damaged Tom O’Neill writing about the race as though it is a 2 horse race… between Basterds and Locker. Oy.)

In my strongly held opinion, if a movie is going to push the frontrunners out, it’s not going to be Inglourious Basterds. It’s just not the kind of movie – as Shakespeare in Love was – that slides in by being easily likable. That would be The Blind Side, folks. And don’t look for that to happen either.

And then there are the unspoken narratives, like…

Lee Daniels, who is only the second black person ever nominated for Best Director and just one of three blacks ever nominated as the producer of a Best Film. Wouldn’t this be more historic than a first win by a female director? Statistically, yes. But you barely ever hear a word about it.

Meryl Streep continues her chase of Randy Newman for Oscar futility as a nominee. She could lose her 14th this year… still 4 behind Newman if he loses twice this year. However, she is closer to Newman’s record for missed opportunities, as he competed against himself in the same category twice, meaning he could only have won 16 more Oscars than he has on his shelf. With a loss this season, she is only one behind and could go for the tie next year! (Meanwhile, the two are amongst the true and deserved legends of the industry.)

None of the Score nominees has not been nominated at least twice before… and of 23 nominations for these five nominees (for the record, Buck Sanders is a first-timer, teamed with multiple nominee Marco Beltrami), there have only been 2 wins, each over a decade ago. So Beltrami, Desplat or Giacchino would be winning their first and Horner (Titanic) and Zimmer (The Lion King) are so far removed from their last win that they are virtual virgins. Not only that, but the two previous winners won when the score award was split into comedy/musical and drama, so this would be their first win against tighter competition.

One thing is for sure… everyone loves a great story. Right now, we’re just waiting on that third act twist. But it’s unlikely that we’ll see much of a twist. The die is cast. Cameron is working on appearing modest in public… as he is much more modest and gentle in private than people think. The Hurt Locker is gently flashing its ongoing parade of bling. And Harvey is working on the story that Hitler and the Bear Jew are as charming and fresh as a young, sexy Shakespeare and young Gwynnie Paltrow being unwrapped like a sexy tamale.

In the days to come, voters will pick their poison… big, little, kinky… this is when we start to remember that the Academy is, after all the shouting, about the quality middle. It’s a game that is almost always won on a safety.

– by David Poland
February 18, 2010

February 11

Thursday, February 11th, 2010

Has anything changed in your
opinion since nominations?
If so, what?
Scott Bowles Nope
Anthony Breznican I don’t think much has changed. Jeff Bridges wins. Sandra Bullock wins. Christoph Waltz. Mo’Nique. Best picture — Avatar? Probably. But looking at the formula for calculating the 10 votes to include second and third choices makes me wonder how solid that is. Does that potentially benefit The Hurt Locker? Dark-horse Up in the Air? Invictus? (Wait, nevermind …) Probably Bigelow for director. Avatar for picture. Up in the Air gets adapted screenplay for Reitman, while Inglourious Basterds wins original screenplay for Tarantino. And overall, the Academy spreads the wealth during a very strong year.
Gregory Ellwood I think the only thing that has changed – ever so slightly – is that people would actually be surprised of Streep won Best Actress. It’s pretty much expected that Bullock will win.
Pete Hammond I think the Best Picture race is appearing more fluid because of the uncertainty of how the preferential balloting will affect certain films. Still no matter how many times I come up with an alternative premise that tries to make the race interesting and suspenseful I then talk to a handful of Oscar voters who tell me they are voting for The Hurt Locker. Go figure. No other changes in the acting races. They appear locked as far as I can see although the actress race has gotten more aggressive but will it help? We’ll see. It’s Bullock’s to lose at this point.
Eugene Hernandez In the wake of her DGA win and continued momentum for The Hurt Locker, Kathryn Bigelow seems to be solidly on track for the directing Oscar. Meanwhile Jeff Bridges, Christoph Waltz and Mo’Nique appear headed for wins, as well. I think Sandra Bullock is well positioned, but keep an eye on Meryl Streep. At this stage, is anyone willing to consider a surprise in this category: Gabourey Sidibe or Carey Mulligan. Not out of the question. Also, I’m keeping an eye on the doc category. Food Inc. seems solid, but The Cove got a boost this week with news of a release in Japan. Don’t count out Daniel Ellsberg, which is a strong film. Finally, best picture: In any other year I’d predict The Hurt Locker at this moment, but given the new ballot with ten nominees… We’ll all be holding our breath down to the final award of the night. Just what the Academy ordered.
Peter Howell I don’t think anything has changed, apart from firming up of the top prospects. I’ve talked to lot of people who are FINALLY going to see The Hurt Locker as result of the noms — which is good.
Dave Karger No, we’re definitely in a lull right now…
Mark Olsen
Nothing has changed, things have just solidified/been confirmed. It’s kind of the scourge of the extended awards season and our microscopic coverage, that we take much of the surprise out of it both for ourselves and anyone else who actually follows along. Of course, if things weren’t quite so predictable/understandable we’d all be out of business, so…
David Poland Well, there’s a lot of talk. Seems to me that the thing that has changed is that viewers of The Hurt Locker in The Academy has probably jumped from 40% to 90%. That’s a huge win.
Steve Pond What’s changed is that we’re looking for things to write about, and there aren’t as many of those things as there were a week ago.

Movement in the races, momentum shifts, that kind of thing? Not so much.

Sean Smith
Sasha Stone What has changed is that we are entering the second phase of the Oscar race. Not many people seem to notice that there was a date extension, which means that there are a few weeks with ballots outstanding. This is very different from the past several years when there wasn’t any time to mull over the frontrunners. That means there will be more careful consideration of the contenders.

Avatar has been seriously hurt by not winning the DGA or the PGA, or having any SAG nominations — heading into the Oscar race with no acting nor writing nominations means that it is weakest at the heart of the voting academy, where actors kind of rule. This change took place, it feels like, because of the momentum put forth by Cameron’s winning the Golden Globe. Voters after that in the various races seemed to go, “hold on a minute, THAT is the best film of 2009?” At the same time, though Avatar has become the highest earner, the week that ballots went out its position dipped to one behind Dear John. Had it remained in a dominant spot throughout these next few weeks it still might have been enough.What has changed, though, ultimately, is not a question we can answer because none of us have ever been through a ten-picture race. What is exciting is that anything is possible and no one should be surprised if a film not expected to win turns up in the number one spot, like Up or Precious, or even Inglourious Basterds. For me the miracle of this race, the truly surprising thing about it so far, is how well a small film written off by almost everyone (one that continues to be written off) keeps winning despite its box office returns. On the one hand, this could be seen as an anti-Cameron vote, on the other hand, wow.

The Oscar race is usually about the team who played it best. But this year it feels like it’s actually about the movie. That means that, perhaps, Hollywood might not be ready just yet to give up their nuts and bolts filmmaking and embrace the brave new world of computer-generated worlds and emotion-capture actors. On the other hand, maybe they are.

Kris Tapley Immediately after the Oscar nominations were announced, journalists in the broader media began to dig into the red meat of ” Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker” and all the nifty headlines it conjured.  But at least in fringe corners of the web — where this nonsense is a focus (raises hand) — an awareness of the Best Picture category’s use of the preferential ballot has begun to pick up steam.  This is, after all, one more change in protocol that could have as big an impact as “the 10.”  Suddenly Avatar is understood as a more polarizing film than its competition, and therefore weak to surprise attacks from consensus favorites like Up, Up in the Air or even Inglourious Basterds.  That The Hurt Locker rarely inspires active disapproval probably makes the slow realization moot, but the simple fact that the race can’t be boiled to two contenders is at least making the rounds.
Anne Thompson It’s hard to imagine anything dive-bombing Christoph Waltz and Mo’Nique’s Oscar chances. Sandra Bullock is not a lock to beat Meryl Streep. Many older Academy members are rooting for Hollywood’s most-nominated actress, who hasn’t won an Oscar since 1983’s Sophie’s Choice. And The Hurt Locker‘s Jeremy Renner, who actually played the piano and sang on The View, is challenging veteran Jeff Bridges, whose singing in Crazy Heart not only makes the movie, but should win him his first Oscar. Does Renner have a shot? Most folks didn’t call Adrien Brody’s win for The Pianist. But it’s Bridges’ turn.As for best picture and director, it’s Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker all the way. The trick is to convince people that Avatar isn’t just a great technological achievement but a movie to be taken seriously. That’s why I wonder: if Academy members vote for The Hurt Locker for best picture, wouldn’t they consider giving Cameron best director? Who else could have accomplished what he did on Avatar? It’s a director’s achievement. If it’s a popularity contest, self-effacing Bigelow wins against her egoistic ex-mate. But the Academy didn’t “like” Cameron last time, when Titanic won 11 Oscars. The major difference: Oscar voters took historic romantic period epic Titanic more seriously than tree-hugging sci-fi Avatar.
Susan Wloszczyna The excitement over Avatar and its record box office has subsided, Cameron gave a couple just-OK acceptance speeches and now it looks as if The Hurt Locker and — given the weighted voting — Inglourious Basterds might have a better chance at winning best picture. That surprises me since I would think Hollywood would celebrate the green the blue people brought in and how Cameron proved that 3D is not just a gimmick. Up in the Air seems to be deflating by the minute whereas Precious is taking its op-ed blows pretty well. As much as I am behind Team Bigelow, part of me would love to see a sci-fi film actually win the top prize.

Scott Bowles
…… USA Today
Anthony Breznican
…… USA Today
Greg Ellwood
——–HitFix
Pete Hammond
…… LAT Envelope
Eugene Hernandez
…… indieWIRE
Peter Howell
…… The Toronto Star
Dave Karger
…… Entertainment Weekly
Mark Olsen
…….LA Times


David Poland
…… MCN
Steve Pond
…… The Wrap
Sasha Stone
…… AwardsDaily.com
Sean Smith
…… Entertainment Weekly
Kris Tapley
…… In Contention
Anne Thompson
…… Thompson On Hollywood
Susan Wloszczyna
…… USA Today

23 Days To Go Sit Back, Relax, Enjoy Being The Show

Thursday, February 11th, 2010

And so, with 23 days to go, here we sit. Once again, frontrunners emerge with such force that everyone – except Paramount – is laying down and letting it happen to their movies.

Not the least of this are Fox and Summit, who really care… but are just not that interested in spending money on this Best Picture fight… at least, not much money.

And that’s okay.

Warner Bros is now supporting Sandra “Sandy” Bullock’s campaign in earnest… which mostly means paying for her travel, parties, and hair. They weren’t so interested in doing so before she became the co-frontrunner in the Best Actress category. How much of it Alcon is paying for is unknown by this chronicler of Oscar.

Sony has the Statue of Liberty in Meryl Streep… unassailable… unexcitable. The big loss for their awards efforts was Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs, which actually is a shame. Their big win was getting in District 9… which somehow has not turned into something that anyone is talking much about.

The Weinstein Company is praying for a shocking upset with Inglourious Basterds swooping in to win Best Picture while the expected duo duke it out.

And Paramount is, indeed, fighting the big fight for Up In The Air, the quietest $80 million grosser with a really well liked star, a fast-rising writer/director, and all the heat you could have coming out of Toronto… which was almost 5 months ago now.

Lionsgate shot their Precious wad in November, their one big move – after Oprah – being the unveiling of a sweet, goofy, charming Gabby Sidibe.

Focus and Sony Classics are very happy to be at the table… again… and would be thrilled to score and animation upset or to win Foreign Language as expected.

And Disney still wants their Up Oscar for Animation… but would seem to have given up on Best Picture… though there is no one left over there to give up. It’s like the bad guys riding into Rock Ridge and finding an empty town that only looks like Rock Ridge.

Anyway…

The media equation for this year’s Oscar season has been interesting. It’s crowded. Way too crowded. But the 10 nominees allowed a much wider spread of “the wealth,” both in stories and advertising gelt.

It’s getting pretty clear that while the move to 10 BP nominees helped keep start-ups in business, things are not as pretty for the Trades and print media that solicit awards advertising aggressively, as just getting ads is not enough… they need high rates. And this year, studios went bargain hunting, even as they were doling out cash.

Meanwhile, on the editorial side, there was near desperation to find some breathing room for stories that could be in any way unique.

The Story has evolved from:

10 Nominees! It’s Gonna Be Star Trek & The Hangover!, to…

It’s Gonna Have To Be Star Trek & The Hangover, Because There Is Nothing Else To Vote For!, to…

Precious! Up In the Air!… Up In The Air! Precious!, to…

We’re Waiting On Eastwood and Harvey Now, to…

Are Nine & Invictus really that bad?, to…

Up In The Air! The Hurt Locker!, Precious!, Inglourious Basterds!, to…

Avatar, really?, to…

Avatar Vs The Hurt Locker… Artifice Vs Art… Big Vs Little, to…

Sandy’s Turn,…

And here we are.

The new spin that Oscarologists are trying to sell is that the races are not as clear as everyone seems to think they are because the counting methodzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz….

Need I remind everything that there have been two real surprise wins for Best Picture in the last 30 years… Shakespeare In Love and The Last Emperor.

Shakespeare In Love upset Saving Private Ryan, which had been a summer movie against a lighter film about show business folk that was commercially hot as the Oscar season rolled out.

The Last Emperor, a period epic from a legendary director, was relatively low grossing… but not the lowest grosser amongst the nominees in the 1987 race. John Boorman’s brilliant Hope & Glory had that distinction. Fatal Attraction was the big grosser in the group, but wasn’t the kind of movie that ever wins. The rest of the field did some business… but the commercial spread was not massive, from Moonstruck’s $60m when nominated to Broadcast News’ $48m to The Last Emperor’s $25m to Hope & Glory’s $10m.

Did either movie win because it was objectively “better” or more lastingly popular, as we look back? Not so much.

How about Meryl vs Sandra?

The Great Streep has lost to Shirley MacLaine, Geraldine Page, Cher, Jodie Foster, Kathy Bates, Susan Sarandon, Hillary Swank, Gwyneth Paltrow, Nicole Kidman, Helen Mirren, Kate Winslet. Katherine Hepburn, Maggie Smith.

Freaks and career achievement awards.

I’m not diminishing any of these performances. Just saying… the way thinks work at the Academy is not as simple and pure as we’d like to think. As Mark Harris smartly pointed out in a NY Mag story this week, a lot of it is about The Story.

When Streep won her first Oscar, she was the stunning newcomer (freak!). When she won for Sophie’s Choice, she was, amazingly, already getting a lifetime achievement award. (She was also stunning in the role and the competition wasn’t her toughest.)

Who is the big competition, all of a sudden, this year? A lifetime achievement award for a terrific performance.

If you want real surprises, look to the categories that no one much is talking about. What would Mark Boal beating Tarantino for Original Screenplay mean? Could be a signal for Picture or it could be a well-deserved consolation prize.

Film Editing could be a signal category. Perhaps neither Avatar or The Hurt Locker will win. Don’t be too shocked if Sally Menke takes home the gold. It doesn’t mean that Inglourious Basterds is going to win Best Picture. But if Avatar or Locker does win… it could be a signal.

Inglourious could well win Cinematography also, over both front-runners. But if Avatar does win, it would seem to signal an acceptance that the film was not just made by some guy in a computer closet somewhere. If it’s The Hurt Locker, it could also be a signal, but a less well-defined one.

I don’t expect either film to win for Score or Song. If Avatar loses Art Direction, it will be a bad sign for them.

But the “locked in” categories… pretty much locked in. If there are surprises, they will come from the co-front-runners.

I am always surprised by how smart studio folks actually are. They know. They aren’t interested in throwing good money after bad. So we have a very quite Phase 2 upon us.

There was no Great Settling this year because there was nothing much left to settle.

So let’s enjoy the celebration of film. Leave the handicapping to Vegas.

– by David Poland
February 11, 2010

February 2

Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010
……….……………………………
x
1
The Hurt Locker
3
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
3
1
1
1
2
142
2
Avatar
1
2
2
2
1
2
1
1
2
2
2
4
2
1
129
3
Inglourious Basterds
4
3
4
4
3
5
3
4
3
1
3
3
4
4
106
4
Up in the Air
2
4
3
6
5
3
5
5
4
5
4
2
3
3
100
5
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
9
8
4
5
6
5
5
79
6
Up
7
7
6
10
6
8
7
6
5
9
7
8
6
8
54
7
An Education
9
6
9
9
8
7
6
7
7
8
8
5
8
7
50
8
The Blind Side
8
8
7
3
7
9
8
3
6
10
10
7
9
6
52
9
District 9
5
9
8
8
9
6
9
8
9
6
6
9
7
9
46
10
A Serious Man
10
10
10
7
10
10
10
10
10
7
9
10
10
10
21

……….……………………………
x
1
Kathryn Bigelow
The Hurt Locker
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
69
2
James Cameron
Avatar
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
56
3
Quentin Tarantino
Inglourious Basterds
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
4
38
4
Jason Reitman
Up in the Air

2
5
4
5
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
3
4
3
29
5
Lee Daniels
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
5
4
5
4
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
17

………………………………………..
x
1
Jeff Bridges
Crazy Heart
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
70
2
George Clooney
Up in the Air
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
3
4
3
2
2
47
3
Jeremy Renner
The Hurt Locker
3
5
4
3
5
2
4
2
3
2
2
2
4
3
40
4
Colin Firth
A Single Man
4
3
3
4
4
4
3
4
4
4
3
5
3
4
32
5
Morgan Freeman
Invictus
5
4
5
5
3
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
18
……………………………………….
x
1
Sandra Bullock
The Blind Side
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
68
2
Meryl Streep
Julie and Julia
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
58
3
Carey Mulligan
An Education
4
4
4
5
4
3
3
4
3
4
4
3
3
4
32
4
Gabourey Sidibe
Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
3
5
3
4
3
4
4
5
4
3
3
4
4
3
32
5
Helen Mirren
The Last Station
5
3
5
3
5
5
5
3
5
5
5
5
5
5
20
………………………………………
x
1
Mo’Nique
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
70
2
Anna Kendrick
Up in the Air
2
2
2
3
3
2
2
4
2
3
2
2
4
2
49
3
Vera Farmiga
Up in the Air
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
2
3
4
3
5
3
3
35
4
Maggie Gyllenhaal
Crazy Heart
4
4
4
2
5
3
3
5
4
2
4
3
2
4
35
5
Penelope Cruz
Nine

5
5
5
5
2
5
5
3
5
5
5
4
5
5
21
…………………………………….
x
1
Christoph Waltz
Inglourious Basterds
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
70
2
Woody Harrelson
The Messenger
3
2
2
3
4
2
2
4
3
2
3
3
3
3
45
3
Stanely Tucci
The Lovely Bones
2
5
4
4
3
3
4
3
4
4
2
4
2
2
38
4
Christopher Plummer
The Last Station
4
4
3
2
2
4
5
2
2
5
5
2
4
4
36
5
Matt Damon
Invictus
5
3
5

5

1
5
5
3
5
5
3
4
5
5
5
21
……..……………………………..
x
1
The Hurt Locker
2
1
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
2
2
1
2
2
62
2
Inglourious Basterds
1
3
1
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
1
4
1
1
61
3
Up
3
2
3
4
5
3
3
5
3
4
5
2
3
4
35
4
The Messenger
4
4
5
5
3
4
4
4
5
5
3
3
5
5
25
5
A Serious Man
5
5
4
3
4
5
5
3
4
3
4
5
4
3
27
………………………………………
x
1
Up in the Air
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
67
2
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
3
5
2
2
1
2
3
4
3
1
2
3
4
2
47
3
An Education
4
3
4
3
4
4
2
2
2
3
5
2
3
4
39
4
District 9
2
4
3
5
3
3
5
5
4
4
4
4
2
5
31
5
In the Loop
5
2
5
4
5
5
4
3
5
5
3
5
5
3
25
……….……………………………
x
The White Ribbon
Germany
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
43
Un Prophete
France
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
1
4
2
2
4
2
2
33
El Secreto de Sus Ojos
Argentina
3
3
1
3
3
4
4
4
2
4
4
1
3
4
27
Ajami
Israel
4
5
4
5
4
3
3
3
3
3
5
3
4
3
21
The Milk of Sorrow
Peru
5
4
5
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
3
5
5
5
11
……….……………………………
x
The Cove
Nominees TBD
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
43
Food, Inc
Robert Kenner, Elise Pearlstein
3
2
2
1
2
2
2
3
2
1
2
2
2
2
33
Burma VJ
Anders Østergaard , Lise Lense-Møller
4
3
3
4
4
4
3
2
3
5
3
3
3
3
22
Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg & the Pentagon Papers
Judith Ehrlich, Rick Goldsmith
2
4
4
5
3
3
4
4
4
3
4
5
5
4
20
Which Way Home
Rebecca Cammisa
5
5
5
3
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
4
4
5
13
………………………………………..
x
Up
Pete Docter
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
44
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Wes Anderson
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
2
2
3
3
33
Coraline
Henry Selick
4
2
3
3
3
4
4
2
2
1
3
4
2
2
27
The Princess and the Frog
John Musker and Ron Clements
3
4
4
4
4
3
3
4
4
5
4
3
4
4
21
The Secret of Kells
Tomm Moore
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
10
……………………………………….
x
Avatar
Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
40
Sherlock Holmes
Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
2
3
2
3
2
3
2
5
5
4
4
4
2
2
29
Nine
Art Direction: John Myhre Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
5
2
4
2
5
1
3
3
3
3
5
3
3
5
26
The Young Victoria
Art Direction: Patrice Vermette Set Decoration: Maggie Gray
4
5
5
5
3
4
4
4
4
2
3
2
4
4
19
The Imaginarium of Dr Parnassus
Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
3
4
3
4
4
5
5
2
2
5
2
5
5
3
17
………………………………………
x
Avatar
Mauro Fiore
4
2
1
4
1
2
2
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
36
The Hurt Locker
Barry Ackroyd
3
1
2
1
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
5
2
4
34
Inglourious Basterds
Robert Richardson
2
3
3
2
4
4
3
3
4
3
4
2
3
3
29
The White Ribbon
Christian Berger
1
4
4
3
3
3
4
4
2
4
3
3
5
2
26
Harry Potter & the Half-Blood Prince
Bruno Delbonnel
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
5
10
…………………………………….
x
Nine
Colleen Atwood
2
1
3
2
5
3
2
1
4
2
4
2
1
1
36
The Young Victoria
Sandy Powell
5
5
1
1
1
1
1
4
1
1
1
1
3
2
36
Bright Star
Janet Patterson
4
2
4
4
2
2
3
5
5
4
3
3
4
4
24
Coco Before Chanel
Catherine Leterrier
3
4
2
3
3
5
4
3
3
3
2
4
5
3
23
The Imaginarium of Dr Parnassus
Monique Prudhomme
1
3
5
5
4
4
5
2
2
5
5
5
2
5
16
……..……………………………..
x
The Hurt Locker
Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
40
Avatar
Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
4
3
1
2
1
2
1
2
3
1
2
1
1
2
37
District 9
Julian Clarke
1
2
3
5
3
3
4
4
4
3
3
4
4
3
26
Inglourious Basterds
Sally Menke
3
4
4
3
4
4
3
3
2
4
4
3
3
4
22
Precious
Joe Klotz
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
10
………………………………………
x
Up
Michael Giacchino
1
1
1
4
3
1
5
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
36
Avatar
James Horner
3
4
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
5
1
30
Fantstic Mr. Fox
Alexandre Desplat
2
3
4
2
4
5
4
5
3
1
4
3
4
3
27
Sherlock Holmes
Hans Zimmer
5
2
3
5
5
3
1
4
4
4
5
4
2
5
22
The Hurt Locker
Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
4
5
5
3
2
4
3
3
5
5
3
5
3
4
16
………………………………………
x
“The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)
Crazy Heart
Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
45
Take it All”
Nine
Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
4
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
28
“Down in New Orleans”
The Princess and the Frog
Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
2
3
2
3
2
4
3
3
4
3
4
3
3
4
27
“Almost There”
The Princess and the Frog
Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
3
2
3
2
3
3
4
4
3
4
3
4
4
3
26
“Loin de Paname”
Paris 36
Music by Reinhardt Wagner Lyric by Frank Thomas
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
9
………………………………………
x
Avatar
Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
44
The Hurt Locker
Paul N.J. Ottoson
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
5
2
37
Star Trek
Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
3
4
5
5
4
3
4
4
5
3
5
3
3
4
20
Inglourious Basterds
Wylie Stateman
5
5
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
3
20
Up
Michael Silvers and Tom Myers
4
3
4
4
5
5
5
5
4
5
3
5
2
5
14
………………………………………
x
Star Trek
Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
1
28
The Young Victoria
Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore
2
3
2
2
2
1
2
3
3
2
1
3
2
2
19
Il Divo
Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
3
2
2
3
3
13
………………………………………
x
Avatar
Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
1
44
The Hurt Locker
Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
1
4
2
37
Inglourious Basterds
Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
4
5
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
22
Star Trek
Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson, Peter J. Devlin
3
4
4
5
4
3
4
4
5
4
4
3
2
4
20
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson
5
3
5
4
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
5
12
………………………………………
x
Avatar
Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
29
District 9
Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
3
2
2
2
3
2
19
Star Trek
Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
2
2
3
3
3
2
3
12

Scott Bowles
…… USA Today
Anthony Breznican
…… USA Today
Greg Ellwood
——–HitFix
Pete Hammond
…… LAT Envelope
Eugene Hernandez
…… indieWIRE
Peter Howell
…… The Toronto Star
Dave Karger
…… Entertainment Weekly
Mark Olsen
…….LA Times


David Poland
…… MCN
Steve Pond
…… The Wrap
Sasha Stone
…… AwardsDaily.com
Sean Smith
…… Entertainment Weekly
Kris Tapley
…… In Contention
Anne Thompson
…… Thompson On Hollywood
Susan Wloszczyna
…… USA Today

January 28

Thursday, January 28th, 2010
.……………………………………
x
1
Avatar
25%
80%
30%
60%
80%
40%
45%
70%
35%
25%
20%
3
3
60%
12
47.5%
2
The Hurt Locker
30%
10%
32%
35%
10%
40%
25%
20%
40%
20%
30%
3
3
25%
12
26.4%
4
Inglourious Basterds
15%
2%
15%
2%
3
10%
10%
5%
5%
30%
15%
3
3
5%
11
10.4%
3
Up in the Air
20%
3%
15%
2%
10%
10%
10%
1%
10%
10%
5%
3
3
10%
12
8.92%
5
Precious
5
5
5
3
3
5
5
6
5
5
6
3
3
5
10
58
6
Up
6
6
7
3
3
6
6
5
7
6
7
3
3
6
10
48
7
An Education
7
7
8
3
3
7
7
7
6
7
8
3
3
7
10
39
8
District 9
8
6
3
3
8
8
8
5
3
3
8
6
26
9
Invictus
9
9
3
3
9
9
8
9
9
9
3
3
9
9
19
10
A Serious Man
8
3
3
10
10
10
3
3
4
6
The Blind Side
0
10
3
9
9
13
8
10
3
6
The Messenger
9
10
1
2
3
Star Trek
10
11
10
10
3
3
Nine
9
10
12
1
1
This is It
10
1
1
……….……………………………
x
Katherine Bigelow
45%
60%
45%
40%
60%
50%
50%
39%
45%
45%
65%
3
3
45%
12
49%
James Cameron 35%
40%
42%
45%
40%
50%
40%
59%
40%
40%
20%
3
3
55%
12
42.3%
Other
20%
0%
13%
5%
0%
0%
10%
2%
5%
15%
15%
3
3
0%
12
7.1%
………………………………………..
x
1
Jeff Bridges
60%
60%
60%
60%
80%
50%
80%
60%
60%
80%
60%
3
3
90%
12
66.7%
2
George Clooney
15%
40%
35%
20%
20%
20%
10%
15%
20%
10%
15%
3
3
5%
12
18.8%
3
Jeremy Renner
20%
0%
1%
15%
0%
30%
5%
25%
15%
5%
15%
3
3
5%
12
11.25%
5
Other
5%
0%
4%
5%
0%
0%
5%
0%
5%
5%
10%
3
3
0%
12
3.25%
……………………………………….
x
2
Sandra Bullock
35%
60%
40%
40%
55%
45%
45%
55%
40%
40%
45%
3
3
65%
12
47.1%
1
Meryl Streep
35%
40%
35%
45%
45%
55%
45%
43%
45%
41%
40%
3
3
35%
12
42%
3
Others
30%
0%
25%
15%
0%
0%
10%
2%
15%
19%
15%
3
3
0%
12
10.9%
………………………………………
x
1
Mo’Nique
90%
90%
95%
90%
100%
100%
90%
90%
90%
90%
85%
3
3
100%
12
92.5%
2
Other
10%
10%
5%
10%
0%
0%
10%
10%
10%
10%
15%
3
3
0%
12
7.5%
…………………………………….
x
1
Christoph Waltz
90%
95%
95%
100%
95%
85%
90%
95%
90%
75%
3
3
100%
11
90%
2
Others
10%
5%
5%
0%
5%
15%
10%
5%
10%
25%
3
3
0%
11
10%
……..……………………………..
x
1
The Hurt Locker
40%
35%
50%
60%
50%
45%
45%
50%
50%
30%
3
3
50%
11
45.9%
2
Inglourious Basterds
40%
45%
45%
40%
50%
45%
40%
45%
40%
55%
3
3
50%
11
45%
2
Others
20%
20%
5%
0%
0%
10%
15%
5%
10%
15%
3
3
0%
11
9.1
………………………………………
x
1
Up in the Air
80%
65%
50%
40%
95%
65%
55%
50%
35%
55%
3
3
70%
11
60%
2
Precious
10%
25%
30%
60%
5%
25%
40%
30%
30%
5%
3
3
30%
11
26.4%
2
Others
10%
10%
20%
0%
0%
10%
5%
20%
35%
40%
3
3
0%
11
13.6%

Scott Bowles
…… USA Today
Anthony Breznican
…… USA Today
Greg Ellwood
——–HitFix
Pete Hammond
…… LAT Envelope
Eugene Hernandez
…… indieWIRE
Peter Howell
…… The Toronto Star
Dave Karger
…… Entertainment Weekly
Mark Olsen
…….LA Times


David Poland
…… MCN
Steve Pond
…… The Wrap
Sasha Stone
…… AwardsDaily.com
Sean Smith
…… Entertainment Weekly
Kris Tapley
…… In Contention
Anne Thompson
…… Thompson On Hollywood
Susan Wloszczyna
…… USA Today

7 Weeks To Go, Ten Is Good

Thursday, January 28th, 2010

At this quiet moment, between a rock rippling the voting pond and a hard count of nominees, a moment of reflection on the State of The Oscars.

I couldn’t be happier with the 10 nominee thing.

Sure, it has taken an annual narrow race and made it wider, but still narrow. The group of films we talk about as we get close to nominations has been 2 or 3 titles beyond the 5 nominees to come for years. So now, it’s 10 nominees and maybe 14 titles to pick from, most of which are now in fluid 7 – 10 slots, as opposed to fluid 3 – 5 slots.

None of us reallyreallyreally know what will happen next Tuesday morning. After we “experts” have counted out movies like The Blind Side and The Hangover and Julie & Julia and The Last Station, you know what? They could all be in.

Or they could all be out.

And by my accounting… great.

What the 10 has done, so far, is to open up the thinking of distributors about what is possible. The only $100 million movies that seem to still be in play are Avatar and Inglourious Basterds. Meanwhile, tiny films like The Messenger and A Serious Man remain in play. Unexpected films like District 9, Star Trek, and The Blind Side (Pete Hammond is still on the This Is It bandwagon) are still in play.

But it’s more than who is still in play. It’s the shut-down mentality that comes, especially in a year like this, when you only have the five nominees. Precious, Invictus, Up, and An Education would all be sweating nominations a lot more than they are this weekend in a field of five. Would that be a good thing?

Of course, you could argue, “Why not make it 20 nominees?!” And you would be right. No matter how large the group, someone is going to be disappointed to be left out. In the end, all but one of the nominees will be disappointed.

But it’s about celebrating movies. Regardless of why Precious, for example, slipped from front-runner to also-ran, in terms of the win, I love the idea that the film, with all the passion that has been behind it, will be celebrated in some way. And I am not the film’s biggest fan.

I think it really is an honor to be nominated. It really should be a pleasure.

To offer some perspective, I decided to parse our MCN Critics Top Ten Chart as though it was an Oscar nomination vote. Interesting.

First, 24 critics don’t get counted because they voted without numerical preference… which we can’t use for this experiment. That leaves 201 “voters” with a “magic number” for nomination of 19.

The next step is eliminating all ballots without #1 votes. That leaves 52 films from the full list of 239 films. Three film from our Top 30, by average vote, have been eliminated for a lack of #1 votes; Star Trek (#15), The Messenger (#22), and The Road (#28). 27 titles ranked lower than these films are still in play… though pretty obviously, none of them has a chance of being “nominated.” Still, interesting.

And we have our first two nominees; The Hurt Locker, with 35 #1 votes and Up In The Air with 34.

Dropping the lowest ranked films, Enter the Void, Made in the USA, and The Exiles are out, each only having one vote, albeit for #1. But what’s interesting is that the critics who voted for those films will now have their #2 votes included, Star Trek voters, for instance, whose ballots are otherwise out of the system.

That leaves “142 ballots” and a “magic number” of 16.

ROUND TWO – Inglourious Basterds, Up, A Serious Man are “nominated” with #2 votes … but not in that order. Because of the preferential system, Serious is first in, followed by Inglourious, and then Up. It doesn’t matter much, as they are now in with the Top 5. But if it was near the end, it could mean a lot.

Another 53 ballots are out, leaving 79, plus a percentage of the ballots for films that have already been counted, based on how much over the then “magic number” they got in with.

The new magic number is “14.” And we’re counting all the way to the #3s.

ROUND THREE – This round is interesting, as Fantastic Mr Fox, which is #9 on the other version of our list, has only 8 clear votes. But the percentage rule works in its favor as ballots that were eliminated for the first 5 “nominees” just barely cross the magic number of 14.

Precious, with only 3 clear votes does not… nor does any other film.

ROUND FOUR – 71 ballots still in play… magic number is still 14. Counting to the #4s.

This is where is gets a little wild. With 4 slots left, #15 Summer Hours leaps ahead with 9 clear votes. #12 on the weighted list, Where The Wild Things Are leaps ahead with 8 clear votes, followed by #9 Avatar with 7. #13 In The Loop has 5 clear votes. At 4 clear votes are #8 An Education, #10 District 9, and #11 (500) Days of Summer. And both #7 Precious and #16 White Ribbon have 3 clear votes each.

At this point, the competition for the last four slots comes down to the “leftover” votes from ballots that voted #1 – #3 for films that are already “nominated.”

Getting in are #12 Where The Wild Things Are, #7 Precious, and #15 Summer Hours, and #9 Avatar.

(Phew… that was exhausting to do!)

In this small sample, the 1-7 titles by way of weighted ballots got in. Kinda getting the shaft, #8 An Education, #10 District 9, #11 (500) Days of Summer, and #13 In The Loop.

In any case, it will be interesting. And personal taste aside, I can’t really think of a bad way for The Ten to go. See you Tuesday…

– by David Poland
January 28, 2010

January 14

Thursday, January 14th, 2010
.……………………………………
x
1
1
Avatar
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
13
127
2
2
The Hurt Locker
2
3
2
3
3
2
2
1
3
1
3
2
2
13
114
3
3
Up in the Air
3
2
3
2
2
3
3
3
4
3
2
3
3
13
107
4
4
Inglourious Basterds
5
4
5
4
4
4
4
4
1
4
4
4
4
13
92
5
5
Precious
4
5
4
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
13
79
6
7
Up
6
7
6
6
6
7
5
7
8
8
10
8
6
13
53
7
6
An Education
7
9
8
8
7
6
7
6
7
7
6
6
7
13
52
8
9
District 9
8
8
7
7
8
8
6
7
9
9
10
33
9
8
Invictus
9
6
3
9
8
9
8
9
9
10
8
10
8
12
29
10
10
A Serious Man
9
10
9
10
6
9
7
8
17
The Messenger
10
10
9
1
3
4
Star Trek
11
10
9
10
3
4
Nine
9
10
12
10
2
2
One Vote Wonders
The Blind Side
0
10
10
9
9
13
11
1
1
This is It
10
1
1
Falling Off The Chart
The Last Station
12
11
11
11

.……………………………………
x
1
Avatar
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
13
61
2
Up in the Air
3
2
5
3
1
1
3
1
4
1
2
3
2
13
47
3
Inglourious Basterds
4
3
2
2
3
4
2
3
2
4
3
4
4
13
38
4
The Hurt Locker
2
4
4
4
4
3
4
4
3
3
4
2
3
13
34
5
Precious
5
5
3
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
13
15

.……………………………………
x
1
Julie and Julia
4
5
2
1
4
1
4
3
3
1
4
2
1
13
43
2
It’s Complicated
1
1
1
2
3
4
1
5
5
5
2
1
5
13
42
3
(500) Days of Summer
3
4
3
4
1
2
5
1
2
4
5
3
2
13
39
4
Nine
5
2
5
3
2
5
2
2
1
3
3
4
4
13
37
5
The Hangover
2
3
4
5
5
3
3
4
4
2
1
5
3
13
34

Scott Bowles
…… USA Today
Anthony Breznican
…… USA Today
Greg Ellwood
——–HitFix
Pete Hammond
…… LAT Envelope
Eugene Hernandez
…… indieWIRE
Peter Howell
…… The Toronto Star
Dave Karger
…… Entertainment Weekly
Mark Olsen
…….LA Times


David Poland
…… MCN
Steve Pond
…… The Wrap
Sasha Stone
…… AwardsDaily.com
Sean Smith
…… Entertainment Weekly
Kris Tapley
…… In Contention
Anne Thompson
…… Thompson On Hollywood
Susan Wloszczyna
…… USA Today



Best Actress Chart

Thursday, January 14th, 2010
BEST ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Meryl Streep – Julie and Julia
Carey Mulligan – An Education
Helen Mirren – The Last Station
Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side
Marion Cotillard – Nine
Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
Zoe Saldana – Avatar
Emily Blunt – The Young Victoria



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Mo’Nique – Precious
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz – Nine
Julianne Moore – A Single Man
Susan Sarandon – The Lovely Bones

Best Actor Chart

Thursday, January 14th, 2010
BEST ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
George Clooney – Up in the Air
Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker
Viggo Mortensen – The Road
Peter Sarsgaard – An Education
Tobey Maguire – Brothers
Christopher Plummer – The Last Station His proper category… could shift



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Christopher Walz – Inglourious Basterds
Christopher Plummer – The Last Station
Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
Alfred Molina – An Education
Woody Harrelson – The Messenger
Alec Baldwin – It’s Complicated
Peter Sarsgaard – An Education His proper category… could change

Best Director Chart

Thursday, January 14th, 2010
BEST DIRECTOR
Director
Picture
Comment
The Frontrunners For Nomination
James Cameron
Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow
The Hurt Locker
Jason Reitman
Up In The Air
Quentin Tarantino
Inglourious Basterds
Lone Scherfig
An Education
Clint Eastwood
Invictus
Lee Daniels
Precious
Rob Marshall
Nine
Pete Docter
Bob Petersen
Up
The Coen Bros.
A Serious Man

Best Picture Chart

Thursday, January 14th, 2010
BEST PICTURE
Picture
Studio
Director
Stars
Comment
The Frontrunners For Nomination
1
1
Avatar
Fox
Cameron
Saldana
Weaver
2
2
The Hurt Locker
Sum
Bigelow
Renner
Mackie
3
3
Up In The Air
Par
Reitman
Clooney
4
8
Inglourious Basterds
TWC
Tarantino
Waltz
5
4
An Education
SPC
Scherfig
Mulligan
Sarsgaard
6
5
Precious
LG
Daniels
Sidibe
Mo’Nique
7
6
Up
Disney
Docter
Petersen
8
9
Invictus
WB
Eastwood
Freeman
Damon
9
The Messenger
Oscill
Moverman
Harrelson
Foster
10
7
Nine
TWC
Marshall
Day-Lewis
Cotillard
Cruz
10
The Last Station
Hoffman
Plummer
Mirren
The Blind Side
WB
Hancock
Bullock
A Serious Man
Focus
Coens
Stuhlbarg
Kind

9 Weeks To Go, The Blurry Season

Thursday, January 14th, 2010

If you are wondering why Avatar has become a prohibitive front-runner in the Best Picture race, you are right at the crux of what this season is all about.

There was a lot of really excellent work this year. But there are virtually no “that’s The ONE!” movies, performances, or even below-the-line efforts that scream for an award. The only one that has been right there was Mo’Nique in Precious… and there is still a very good chance that she will end up winning Oscar. But even that performance is beginning to blur under the strain of time and slowly sliding memory.

If I had to pick a Best Picture on quality, I would probably have to go for The Hurt Locker’s dry, tense, black-key detail to the wide-open magic of Avatar. But there are plenty who would choose Up In The Air or Inglourious Basterds or Precious or Up or An Education on the same basis.

But which film represents what the Academy membership would like to represent them for the year? Keep in mind, Avatar is not just a major advance in technology… not just a hugely entertaining experience… not only leading the way to the (perhaps overstated) 3D revolution… but it is also about to become the second $1 billion film overseas in history. #1 is Titanic’s $1.243b. #3 is LOTR: Return of The King’s $742m.

Avatar is not just the highest grossing film of the season, as in, “Well, Gladiator is the biggest commercial movie in the group, 50% bigger than Erin Brockovich,” it is easily the biggest worldwide phenomenon of the last decade. The Academy isn’t going to pass on this opportunity, anymore than it would pass on the opportunity to celebrate LOTR’s $3 billion in worldwide grosses.

But that said… the other categories are a different set of issues.

In Best Actress, it looks like Oscar-winners Streep and Mirren vs first-time nominee “The Beloved” Bullock vs the two kids, Mulligan and Sidibe. All the performances are worthy. But is any one of them THE performance? There are no big surprises that the veterans can do what they did. Mulligan is just rising and they rarely vote for first-timers in the Lead slot. And Sidibe is probably a one-off, however personally charming she may be… again, the kind of role that wins in Supporting (see: Mo’Nique).

In Best Actor, you’re likely looking at four well-loved veterans and a newcomer in Jeremy Renner. Fine performances all, is there a real shock in the performances of Bridges, Freeman, Firth, or Clooney? This doesn’t mean that one of them won’t win. Someone has to win. But is there anything in the work that screams that we will never see any of them give a performance this good again… if not next year?

In Supporting Actor, Christoph Waltz has the edge… in part because no one has ever seen the guy before. He is a surprise. And that is such a key in this process. This goes for Mo’Nique in Supporting Actress as well. If Angela Bassett gave that performance, would she even be nominated? I wouldn’t bet on it. But Mo’Nique is a comic known for doing Sassy Black Lady in movies. Who saw it coming that she would ooze anguish in a small indie film? No one. Shock. Win.

This is not to diminish the performances. Please… don’t take it the wrong way. But winning an Oscar is not some sort of objective event. There is no such thing when comparing quality artistic work.

There is an argument to be made in reverse as well… all the reasons why this person or performance should win. But you can make them for almost every one. Streep hasn’t won in a long time. Bullock hasn’t ever been nominated before, but is a terribly positve part of the film industry family. Mirren, with Christopher Plummer, is having a ball. Carey Mulligan is a skyrocking starlet. And Gabby Sidibe exposed herself in a dark, dangerous way. And Zoe Saldana gives a great, intimate performance in spite of being surrounded by technology.

The guys? Jeff Bridges is a living legend and has it coming. But Clooney is a big star and people want to support their Cary Grant (even if they never voted Cary Cary Cary a performance Oscar). But Colin Firth is so brave playing gay when he is straight and showing the cracks in a closeted facade. But Jeremy Renner is so great in the film and we love the film and we aren’t going to give it Best Picture, so let’s show our love here (and in screenplay). But Viggo Morrtensen has is coming too… and it was such a tough movie… just him and a kid.

But there is no Charlize Theron, 30 pounds heavier than normal, lesbian, and raging. Hilary Swank wore pants this year, but she was wasn’t stuffing her pants or hitting people. Scorsese has his Oscar. No one is drinking your milkshake and channeling a former Oscar winner. And while Jeff Bridges sings, he isn’t blind and he doesn’t transform from America’s legally blind sweetheart into a dramatic actress who signs for the first time.

What I am talking about is a season loaded with a sense of appreciation… not the tone of intense passion that these things sometimes take.

Is this a good thing or a bad thing? Isn ’t the fun of it all that we all have our personal favorites, but can also enjoy a sense of healthy competition and a celebration of terrific work?

– by David Poland

January 14, 2010

January 7

Thursday, January 7th, 2010
.……………………………………
x
1
2
Avatar
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
15
144
2
3
The Hurt Locker
1
3
2
3
1
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
3
2
3
15
133
3
1
Up in the Air
3
1
3
2
3
2
2
2
3
3
4
3
2
3
2
15
127
4
5
Inglourious Basterds
5
7
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
4
4
4
4
15
101
5
4
Precious
4
4
5
5
4
7
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
5
15
90
6
8
An Education
7
8
7
9
6
6
8
8
7
6
6
6
6
5
7
15
64
7
6
Up
6
5
6
7
7
5
6
7
6
8
9
10
8
10
6
15
59
8
7
Invictus
10
9
6
3
8
7
6
8
7
7
9
7
7
8
13
44
9
District 9
10
6
8
8
8
9
10
9
9
7
9
9
12
30
10
10
A Serious Man
8
9
10
9
12
12
10
9
8
8
14
The Messenger
10
10
10
10
10
5
5
9
Nine
9
9
9
12
8
10
4
8
One Vote Wonders
12
The Blind Side
9
0
10
9
9
13
11
1
2
Star Trek
11
8
1
2
The Last Station
10
12
11
11
11
1
1
This is It
10
1
1
Falling Off The Chart
Crazy Heart
A Single Man


Who Or What Potential Nominee(s) Made A Big Step Forward Over The
Holiday Weeks?
Who Or What Potential Nominee(s) Made A Big Step Backwards Over
The Holiday Weeks
Scott Bowles
The Hurt Locker/ By not falling to the weight of expectation, it becomes a contender.
Invictus/ It may still land a nod, but only because there are 10 slots and he’s Clint Eastwood.
Anthony Breznican
Avatar — dur. Also The Hurt Locker
Invictsomething.
Gregory Ellwood
The Messenger
Nine. Nine. Nine. Nine. Nine.
Pete Hammond
District 9
Nine
Eugene Hernandez
Avatar
District 9
Nine
A Serious Man
Peter Howell
Avatar
Nine
Dave Karger
Avatar
Invictus
Mark Olsen
Avatar, District 9
Nine, The Lovely Bones
David Poland
The Messenger (Avatar was already well on its way)
Nine
Steve Pond
Hurt Locker, Avatar
Nine, A Serious Man
Sean Smith
Avatar
Sandra Bullock
Invictus
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Sasha Stone
District 9, Avatar
Nine (unfortunately)
Kris Tapley
Avatar
Nine
Anne Thompson
Avatar and The Hurt Locke
Nine, The Lovely Bones
Susan Wloszczyna
Sandra Bullock, Jeff Bridges
Anyone associated with Nine

Scott Bowles
…… USA Today
Anthony Breznican
…… USA Today
Greg Ellwood
——–HitFix
Pete Hammond
…… LAT Envelope
Eugene Hernandez
…… indieWIRE
Peter Howell
…… The Toronto Star
Dave Karger
…… Entertainment Weekly
Mark Olsen
…….LA Times


David Poland
…… MCN
Steve Pond
…… The Wrap
Sasha Stone
…… AwardsDaily.com
Sean Smith
…… Entertainment Weekly
Kris Tapley
…… In Contention
Anne Thompson
…… Thompson On Hollywood
Susan Wloszczyna
…… USA Today

Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics Association

Friday, January 1st, 2010

Best Film

WINNER
Up in the Air
NOMINEES
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
The Hurt Locker
Up

Best Actor

WINNER
Up in the Air: George Clooney
NOMINEES
A Single Man: Colin Firth
Invictus: Morgan Freeman
The Hurt Locker: Jeremy Renner
The Road: Viggo Mortensen

Best Actress

WINNER
An Education: Carey Mulligan
NOMINEES
Away We Go: Maya Rudolph
Julie & Julia: Meryl Streep
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire: Gabourey Sidibe
The Blind Side: Sandra Bullock

Best Supporting Actor

WINNER
Inglourious Basterds: Christoph Waltz
NOMINEES
An Education: Alfred Molina
The Hurt Locker: Anthony Mackie
The Lovely Bones: Stanley Tucci
The Messenger: Woody Harrelson

Best Supporting Actress

WINNER
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire: Mo’Nique
NOMINEES
A Single Man: Julianne Moore
The Messenger: Samantha Morton
Up in the Air: Vera Farmiga
Up in the Air: Anna Kendrick

Best Director

WINNER
The Hurt Locker: Kathryn Bigelow
NOMINEES
Inglourious Basterds: Quentin Tarantino
Invictus: Clint Eastwood
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire: Lee Daniels
Up in the Air: Jason Reitman

Best Screenplay, Original

WINNER
Inglourious Basterds: Quentin Tarantino
NOMINEES
(500) Days of Summer: Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
A Serious Man: Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
The Hurt Locker: Mark Boal
Up: Bob Peterson, Pete Docter

Best Screenplay, Adapted

WINNER
Up in the Air: Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner
NOMINEES
An Education: Nick Hornby
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire: Geoffrey Fletcher
The Blind Side: John Lee Hancock
The Road: Joe Penhall

Art Direction

NOMINEE
The Young Victoria: Patrice Vermette

Best Art Direction

WINNER
Nine
NOMINEES
Star Trek
The Lovely Bones
The Young Victoria
Where the Wild Things Are

Best Documentary

WINNER
Food, Inc.
NOMINEES
Anvil! The Story of Anvil
Capitalism: A Love Story
Good Hair
The Cove

Best Foreign Film

WINNER
Sin Nombre
NOMINEES
Red Cliff
The White Ribbon
I Killed My Mother
Summer Hours
Broken Embraces

Best Animated Film

WINNER
Up
NOMINEES
9
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Ponyo

Best Ensemble

WINNER
The Hurt Locker: Jeremy Renner, Anthony Mackie, Ralph Fiennes, Evangeline Lilly, David Morse, Guy Pierce, Brian Geraghty
NOMINEES
Nine: Marion Cotillard, Penélope Cruz, Daniel Day-Lewis, Judi Dench, Stacy Ferguson, Kate Hudson, Nicole Kidman, Sophia Loren
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire: Mo’Nique, Lenny Kravitz, Paula Patton, Gabourey Sidibe, Mariah Carey, Sherri Shepherd, Stephanie Andujar, Chyna Layne, Amina Robinson, Xosha Roquemore
Star Trek: Zoe Saldana, Zachary Quinto, Eric Bana, John Cho, Karl Urban, Chris Pine, Bruce Greenwood, Ben Cross, Anton Yelchin, Clifton Collins Jr.
Up in the Air

Best Breakthrough Performance

WINNER
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire: Gabourey Sidibe
NOMINEES
An Education: Carey Mulligan
Me and Orson Welles: Christian McKay
The Hurt Locker: Jeremy Renner
Up in the Air: Anna Kendrick