Friday Estimates
Not very interesting.
Aeon Flux, which looks to open between $11 million and $14 million without any critics screenings is right in range with other #2 films in the first weekend of December slot from the last number of years (Christmas With The Cranks, Honey, Analyze That). (Other outlets have highest estimates of Friday for the film.) If Paramount is okay with this number, this number is pretty dead on with what should have been expected. The irony is that Fox’s The Family Stone avoided this date as “bad for business” and will be very lucky to do the same number in a couple of weekends with a lot of great reviews to rely on and a cadre of stars almost as big as Charlize.
It’ll be interesting to see if Pride & Prejudice passes Rent in both daily and total numbers by the end of the weekend.
Harry Potter and The Prisoner of Zenda continues to stay ahead of the other three Potter films, but the daily take has fallen behind the rest and when the Narnia/Kong roadblock hits, I would guess that it will be hard for Goblet of Fire to pass up even the #2 in the series, much less reach the $318 million domestic of the first of the series.
Also, no one seems to be interested in reporting on the “re-release” of Cinderella Man, which started on November 18. The film started on 5 screens, but lost one and is now on 4. The film’s grossed about $33,000 in that time… a little bit better than the ongoing gross of Mr. & Mrs. Smith and not quite as good as Charlie & The Chocolate Factory in the same period.
Title / Distributor / Gross* / Theaters / % Change
Harry Potter And The Goblet Of Fire / WB / 5.3 / 3858 / -77%
Aeon Flux / Par / 3.3 / 2608 / New
Walk The Line / Fox / 3.1 / 3160 / -58%
Yours, Mine And Ours / Par / 2.3 / 3210 / -67%
Just Friends / New Line / 2.1 / 2505 / -43%
Rent / Sony / 1.6 / 2437 / -62%
Pride And Prejudice / Focus / 1.4 / 1327 / -49%
Chicken Little / Bv / 1.1 / 3021 / -79%
Derailed / Wein Co / 0.75 / 1702 / -58%
In The Mix / Lions Gate / 0.6 / 1608 / -66%
Also Debuting
First Descent / Uni / 0.19 / 243 /
Transamerica / Weinstein Co / 12,700 / 2 /
David, all the other websites list Aeon Flux as having made around 4.7 – 4.8
There is, quite literally, nothing interesting about this weekend’s numbers.
The most boring weekend of the holiday season.
Yeah, I REALLY do not get why “Family Stone” blinked away from here. Maybe they were expecting Rent to go bigger than it did?
Next week’s got a lot of interesting questions, though:
1. How well will “Syriana” hold up wide? (Judging from the Loews Lincoln Square in NYC, it wasn’t even holding up that well in week 2.)
2. Week 1 of “Brokeback” is going to be huge PSA-wise. How huge? Will it be enough to push it into ultra-wide?
3. Can “Narnia” do “Potter” numbers?
4. Could “Memoirs of A Geisha” disappoint in limited?
My answers, FWIW?
1. Not well at all.
2. Brokeback will do a 40K+ PSA, and then tank in wide release. Here’s an interesting question–would this be at all interesting or special in any way without the gay angle?
3. No, but it’ll do 70ish over the weekend.
4. “Geisha” gets overshadowed by “Brokeback.” It’s another one where they coulda been smarter and released limited this weekend with limited competition for the “big limited” title.
I have next to zero interest in seeing NARNIA. On the other hand, I’m dying to see BROKEBACK and will probably check out SYRIANA. I’m sure I’m gonna hate GEISHA, but I should still see it if it’s gonna be one of the big Oscar contenders…
Anyone else see Aeon Flux? I thought it was quite good. I don’t get Paramount’s decision to withhold it from critics.
just saw syriana for the second time. i think it’s the best film of 2005. it’s not gonna play well to mass audiences…way to smart.
sorry…way TOO smart. it’s so dense and layered, even after the second viewing, I feel the need to go back again. gaghan stepped up big time.
Too smart? Maybe too convoluted. Too smart implies it is right on and factual.
I thought Syriana was simultaneously too smart, in that it was too complicated for Joe Sixpack to enjoy in a single sitting, and too dumb, in that it didn’t tell me anything I didn’t already know. Yeah, politics and the Middle East suck.
Joefitz, please tell us what was not factual in the movie.
Also, I’m glad people are not ‘rediscovering’ Cinderella Man – too mediocre to merit it. The DVD comes out in a few days anyway.
jeff,
Besides the fact that that the entire movie was fiction, there was plenty of stuff that didn’t wash — even in the world of the movie.
The CIA is not assasinating foreign leaders with drones (they save that for terrorists). However, the government (both parties and branches) are doing plenty to make sure oil wins.
After two hours of subtle, intelligent, and sometimes redundant storytelling, we end up with a stupid Patriot Games conclusion that plays like total bullshit. Read ‘See No Evil’ and you’ll see how the movie could have been great. Shame on Gaghan. And shame on Soderbergh for not jumping on this.
“2. Brokeback will do a 40K+ PSA, and then tank in wide release. Here’s an interesting question–would this be at all interesting or special in any way without the gay angle?”
Okay, seriously?? Are we doing THAT again?
Here we go. If it weren’t the gay angle it wouldn’t exist. And if it were just a straight cowboy/cowgirl movie it wouldn’t have had anything to distinguish it, so it would’ve been released wide and depending on quality may or may not have been successful.
Obviously it wouldn’t be the same without the gay angle, because it would be a completely different movie.
Just like if Memoirs of a Geisha wasn’t based on a book. Would it have been as Oscar buzzed? No. If Walk The Line was about a random no-name singing couple would it be oscar buzzed? No.
It could go on forever, but it IS a gay themed movie, it IS oscar buzzed and it will have a big PSA and may or may not succeed in wider release.
There is absolutely no way to hypothesise “well, what if it wasn’t about two men” because it is and if it weren’t it would be a completely different beast.
blah blah blah. I thought we’d covered all of this.
And, on Syriana. It doesn’t have the cast to turn it into another Traffic.
Saying Syriana is over the head of Joe Six pack is a pretty dumb comment. Like normal people out there can’t “get” a movie? We’re not talking Advanced Calc here. It’s a so so movie with George Clooney and Matt Damon. It’s not rocket science.
The AMC Empire picked up “Syriana” off its boxcar Thanksgiving numbers. That’s why it tailed off at the Loews Lincoln Square.
You’re gonna see a lot of backlash against any picture being pushed for Academy Awards. “Brokeback Mountain” = Play A Gay Man, Win An Oscar. “Memoirs of a Geisha” = Play A Prostitute, Win An Oscar. The general public doesn’t give a fark about that — especially when Americans keep dying in Iraq.
“Syriana” does have a peg to draw people. The CIA torture gulag is major news in Europe; people in the States know about this — and not from the Liberal Media!
I understand why Paramount didn’t screen Flux, what I don’t understand is that it is already getting a cult response of “not nearly as bad as expected!”. What did people expect? Mortal Kombat with a hot blonde? Yes, it was smarter than that. It was also very bad, poorly written, and horribly acted. Whoever cast the male leads in Flux should be fired.
Americans were dying in Iraq last year and the year before, Chucky, when Charlize Theron won an Oscar for playing a prostitute and Best Picture winners included the very non-anti-war Return of the King.
I’m pretty sure “Brokeback” won’t be going wide until January at the earliest. It’s going to start very limited with big per-screen and roll out wider based on potential award nominations and buzz.
I think the saddest thing about the Aeon Flux debacle is that it stars Charlize Theron, Frances McDormand and Sophie Okonedo. Between them four Oscar nominations and 2 wins.
Catwoman and Tomb Raider only had their leading ladies.
My general rule of thumb with these sorts of movies is, if they can’t get a director that even I have heard of then it’s not gonna be good. Surely SOME directors would want to make it if it’s a good script. Alas, Karyn Kusama and Pitof don’t really ring any bells. And with a stupid name like Pitof I’m glad.