Klady's Friday Estimates
Perspective demands that I point out that the Brokeback Mountain per-screen for the weekend will be less than the When A Stranger Calls per-screen for Friday alone. While this doesn
April 26, 2024
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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?
So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.
And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.
There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.
I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.
So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.
But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”
My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher
“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.
~ David Simon
Aw, Brokeback Mountain is not doing so well. I hope it will make $7 mil total.
I weep for our future.
Thanks to the Superbowl BBM will have no Oscar bounce and will actually drop this weekend.Very good for WASC. Given the boxoffice of this film and last years Bogeyman we can look forward to a PG-13 horror film being released every year against the Superbowl.
Roxane, you really want Brokeback to do poorly, don’t you? Why?
And I think it will actually do quite well on Sunday, considering. It’s good counter programming. It’s certainly NOT the kind of film that appeals to hard core football fan types, and the very type of person who doesn’t get into testosterone-driven Red State lovin’ things like the Super Bowl is the kind that would be interested in getting out of the house and going to Brokeback Mountain.
Again, why do you want it to fail so desparately? You’ve said things like “thanks to the Super Bowl” it won
I knew I’ve seen her face before!
That Cute Girl In Jeapordy in “Stranger” was the same Cute Little Girl In Jeapordy nine years ago at the beginning of “Jurassic Park 2.” Remember the tiny green dinosaurs hoping after the child on the beach?
Time she flies…
The 100$ million dreams for Brokeback are done.
I am still surprised that STRANGER CALLS was directed by Simon West (CON AIR, GENERAL’S DAUGHTER, TOMB RAIDER 1). I mean, he’s not the worlds best director or anything (though I enjoy CON AIR for what it is), but each of his previous films grossed over $200 million worldwide before video and are considered blockbusters. Why would he sign to direct this no-star, pg-13 hack job of slasher film? Just suprising to me for some reason.
Rufus, you might be right about that. I always thought it would come in, even with lots of nominations, at between 75-90 mil. Even with a best picture win, I think 90 mil. will be tough. Still, Annie Hall only made $38 mil with a best picutre win (not adjusted for inflation) and look at the cultural impact that had. I won’t complain if Brokeback end with a Best Picture win and 80+ million buck.
Danny, like a lot of people I dislike anything that is overhyped like BBM has become.That’s why I am happy to see BBM stumble this weekend though it can still make $100 mil with a BP Oscar.Focus will just leave it in theaters forever and ever like WB did M$B last year.
The Superbowl affects all films to a greater or lesser degree as you will find out when numbers come out tomorrow.All films fall hard on Superbowl Sunday even kiddie films and films targeted at the female audience.
SIDEWAYS made what? $70 million or so? Maybe BROKEBACK can get there.
As for the number#1 and number#2 movies out there, are teenagers getting stupider by the generation?
And where is Charles Durning when you need him?
Fried Green Tomatoes did extremely well in its first wide weekend on Superbowl Sunday. Ever since then studios have considered that a good day to make money for very specific kinds of films, and both FGT and BM have much in common, don’t you think?
And yes NANCY MCPHEE has “sleeper” written all over her. She’ll quietly get to $40 million and beyond just films like NOBODY’S FOOL do, under the radar and without hype.
There wasn’t a single film last year that comes close to the laid back perfection of Nobody’s Fool.
BTW: I think the release strategy of Brokeback is very cynical. It’s been gradually adding screens as if it’s this sacred holy thing. Focus seems terrified of the film being rejected in the heartland.
Focus made a bad call by rolling it out this slow. There time to add screens was after the Globes. They had all the buzz and the hype and there was nothing in the market against it.
Roxane, you think a tender, thoughtful film about love and loss and elements that we all face, either directly or indirectly, doesn
Wedding Date opened last year on Superbowl weekend with more then twice what BBM earned this Friday. Wedding Date is a film targeted at the female audience that still dropped hard on Superbowl Sunday.
The reality is that most films have a limited audience and BBM seems to have reached most of its audience.We know that because the addition of almost 500 theaters combined with 8 Oscar noms hasn’t helped BBM this weekend. As for whether BBM deserves to make more money then Godzilla I’m for letting the free market decide.People can spend their money on BBM or Godzilla it doesn’t matter to me.
And yet you wrote a couple weeks ago, Roxane, “I hope [Brokeback] doesn’t [make 100 million]. So it does seem to matter to you.
DannyBoy, don’t worry. You’re life will go on when BBM doesn’t make 100 million. It’s okay.
I’d be sad but then I look at my boys and I’m instantly happy:
http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2006/01/20/brokeback_wideweb__470x299,0.jpg
Go Brokeback!
Oh, and this is the heartbreaking one at the end of the movie:
http://static.flickr.com/42/89354783_7fd88656a9.jpg?v=0
Have a good Saturday night. I’m out.
There is no more sure thing than a horror movie opening up at #1. It’s close to a lock as you can. Also, the 60% drop is pretty assured to.
I can’t decide which is more annoying… a Brokeback fascist or a Crash defender.
Though a Serenity fan easily trumps them all.
(Steve Martin on SNL tonight! YAY!)
Wow. That may be the toughest question ever posed on this blog.
Re: Simon West. The studios must have realized he’s a horrible director and this is the best offer he could get. There must be some justice after all (although then you see that it’ll open to almost $30m so never mind).
Sorry, I mean $40m.
No…I was right the first time. Never mind.
I didn’t think “Something New” would do so bad. I thought it would hit at least 10 mill.
Could BBM be losing some of it’s buzz??? Will they rerelease Crash???? Will Spielberg actually start campaigning???
I thought WASC’s trailer was a Nokia/Cingular parody. Even shit like Boogeyman had a little flair. This was all nothing.
West’s “downfall” reminds me of Justin Lin, who’s got his own mediocre film out right now (except he showed promise while West showed he’s nothing without The Bruck).
Look for the huge opening of WHEN A STRANGER CALLS to be the final nail in Amy Pascal’s coffin. Clint Culpepper has been campaigning for her job and has gone to the higher ups at Sony citing the profit/loss ratio for his division, Screen Gems, compared to Columbia proper. Also, Clint has also taken direct aim at some of Columbia’s expensive development projects in order to destroy them. For example, Clint rushed into production the vampire project, PRIEST, knowing full well that Amy had a competing project, 30 DAYS OF NIGHT, that she wanted to put into production soon for which she had spent millions in development.
Most insiders are saying that Clint would have gotten the job (because the numbers speak for themselves), but the way he is trying to cut Amy at the knees will make things harder for him in the long run because Amy still has powerful friends who will stick by her more so now that Clint is on the offensive and is attacking her. Basically, Clint’s friends are advising him to shut the f*ck up and let things happen in a more graceful manner, but Clint will not be able to contain himself come Monday morning. At the end of the day, though, I think Sony corporate will care more about profits rather than politics and look for Clint to run the show over here by mid-March.
If that’s all true, Mr. Culpepper may well become studio head, but he won’t last very long.
Daunte’s brother?
Clint Culpepper…Girlfight!
heh heh heh
it wasn’t his Big Night
like my little poem?
It has tremendous haiku potential. LOL.
My guess on STRANGERS looks very good right now. People love the hook to it.
actually i don;t mean anything personal by my poem. i don’t know him, i only seen ’em from a distance. and i thought he did the bidding on Girlfright…i mean Girlfight…tho i could be mistaken.
coup d’etat Tuesday.
“I can’t decide which is more annoying… a Brokeback fascist or a Crash defender.
Though a Serenity fan easily trumps them all.”
Man, I don’t know if there’s a supercomputer alive that can figure out who comes out worst in that comparison.
I didn’t like Crash despite my soft spot for Matt Dillon.
However, my best friend is African American, and from bigger bad-ass hood than I AND she actually thought Crash was a good movie. I was pretty shocked to discover this as we both really thought Grand Canyon hit an accurate chord. I asked her “don;t you think the Crash people were over the top…annoying caricatures?” and she sez “at least the movie is talking about something that everybody conveniently forgot about”.
So even though I don;t like Crash, maybe a Crash Defender is the least of the three evils. especially since I can’t ever find reason to find fault with my sista.
I am both a Crash Defender and a Serenity Fan, though neither would be my raison d’etre. An interesting question the respective performance of “Big Momma’s House 2” and “Something New” begs–why is there a gigantic market for “lowbrow” films for African-American audiences, and a minimal one for more upscale ones?
what “upscale” (or did you mean intelligent?) Afro-Am movies have we been offered in the last year or two versus DUMB movies?
The public isn’t being offered them except once in a blue moon–for any major ethnic group, except whitey in the burbs.
Dumbed down is what’s on the menu from every studio.
Tyler Perry is an exception because his inner city humnor has been a big hit with his plays so he already has a “name” with cityfolk.
Same reason why Cheaper By the Dozen 2 will outgross The New World. Lowbrow usually outgrosses upscale.
Lota: I think your friend definitely is on to something. In fact, even people who hate “Crash” will have to admit: It was one of the very few movies released last year — maybe the only significant one — that dealt head-on with the way we live now. Literally. You have noticed, I assume, that it is the only Best Picture nominee that is not a period piece.
BBM is a bit of a period piece but have you all noticed a certain headline that’s been printed the past few days?
“Puzzles Lounge,” in New Bedford, Mass., was thrown into turmoil in the early morning hours of Thursday, Feb. 2, when a young man violently attacked three patrons with a hatchet and gun.
BBM is a period piece that lives and breaths to this day, after “Stonewall”. Which makes it just as true now, as it was then. Sad, Sad, Sad.
You have to commend Crash (at least nominally) for looking at the present day. But that to me doesn’t indicate quality, and in many instances, I find the examples of racism inadequate (Los Angeles is known for its large Latino and Asian populations and yet they were given small roles in this film). And it was just so easy to cherry pick all of our negative stereotypes without ever showing the real way Angelenos get by day after day.
The truth is all the films tie into issues that are still affecting us today (Capote’s concern for ethical journalism, GNGL’s concern for freedom of speech and dissension, Munich’s concern for violence in the Middle East, and Brokeback’s concern for homosexuality).
Present day? Past? 4,00 yrs ago? What’s that matter to a good movie? WHo cares?
– Do The Right Thing
– In The Heat of The Night
– Bulworth
– Blazing Saddles
– Monster’s Ball
Just a few movies that approach race relations in this country 10 times better than Crash.
I looked at the comments after Poland’s post wondering who was going to call bullshit first. Amazingly, no one has. I wonder why?
First, a movie is expected to have its per screen average fall when it adds screens. Everyone knows this. Do we really think a smart movie guy like David Poland doesn’t understand this? Suddenly, BBM adds screens and its PSA falling is a bad thing. It might be a bad thing if it doesn’t happen to every single movie that adds screens.
Then Poland pulls a 40% drop of PSA from somewhere. According to the figures from Showbiz Data BBM dropped around 15% in its PSA from last week. This is actually very good for a movie that added screens. You adds screens the PSA drops.
BBM is having a just okay week on Super Bowl weekend. Imagine that. By next Friday it should still be above 63 mill with four weekends until Oscar and several decent weekends after that. It has never registered a huge drop and probably won’t until after Oscar (front running BP contenders usually have gradual drops and then a bit of an uptick if it wins BP). Thinking BBM will not cross 100 mill is wishful thinking.
This blog post is as bad as Poland’s Oscar column where he talks about the intense competition for BP and Best Director. Oh yeah. No movie with Crash’s precursor support has ever won Best Pic and no movie with BBM’s has ever lost it (no movie has ever won GG BP, the DGA, and led in Oscar noms and lost BP–out of 27 times). BBM losing BP would be the biggest upset in Oscar history unless Ang Lee lost BD.
Last, how nice it must be to dismiss any post as biased that points out a more objective truth than the one being presented because it comes from a BBM supporter. It makes life easier I guess: although it might seem a bit disingenious to everyone else.
Everywhere I look I see a parody on BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN (i.e. BROKEBACK TO THE FUTURE flick on the internet, Jay Leno, Letterman etc etc) – this love of parody is diluting the power and potential awards the film will get.
What was once regarded as a serious film and meditative parable on love is now the laughinstock of the Internet and TV. That won’t help, and in the meantime CRASH is coming from behind ready to unleash its L.A. “racism for dummies” mediocrity on the masses and the Awards.
yeah yeah, it’s racism for dummies…and the examples for LA are inadequate because I found the racism there to be very subtle and avoidance issues more than anything…and yuck I have to be amongst that passive agressive shit again soon when i go there again.
But still, as my pal points out…maybe it’s better than nothing and many of the other noms are dullsville. SInce AHOV didn;t get many nominations I find myself ragging on the other nominees than before because I am disgruntled, so maybe Mr DPo is disgruntled re. noms as well.
However PetePortland, just because the BM slant in DPo’s writeup is sorta negative doesn;t mean that it isn’t true. For Academy voters to give BM so many noms means there is some love for it, but it might be affection out of obligation(open to the subject matter). I find the general populus responses in the papers, etc to be ho hum on many movies this year. Academy voters don;t give too much barometer reading to the public and alot of them are older watching screeners at home…who knows what’ll get them at the last minute. I hope NOT that fucking awful hatchet job on Max Baer.
I am very bored with the Best Pic race and Director race since who i wanted most didn;t get in. I do like ANg Lee very much, and wouldn’t mind seeing him win, but I have a feeling it might be his Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon Oscar….
peteinportland,
I’m so glad someone posted that info. I didn’t know where he (David) was coming up with that. I mean, from what I saw, it didn’t look that dismal. I have no experience in these matters to comment so I just waited to see if someone else with a little more knowledge would comment. Thanks for confirming my thoughts.
It’s like voting for Prom Queen. Now the jokes outa fly!
I still fall back on David Polands words; “When people start trying to rationalize how some
Hi “Fades to Black”,
My remark was just an “Art reflecting life” comment, oh, and sort of a history repeats itself thing, Ya’know, no big Woo.
Hang on.. I don’t understand how David says it will out open every movie of 2006… it probably won’t make as much as Underworld or Big Momma’s House 2 did opening weekend, because it wil be severely frontloaded to Friday with the Super Bowl today. I’m thinking it will end up 22 million by the end of the weekend
Brokeback Mountain hasn’t lost any buzz. Even if it has, it’s no problems because no other has gained any buzz.
Brokeback is still the king. Go Brokeback!
Oh, and also go Seahawks!!!
Much of the Bible Belt didn’t get “Brokeback Mountain” until last weekend. That explains the slow-to-expand strategy that Focus Features has used.
Also, I retract any comments I made about the movie not playing in Lincoln NE. A single-screen arthouse in Lincoln has had “Brokeback” since early January; that theater gives its showtimes to Hollywood.com but not to Zap2it.
Culpepper will never get Pascal’s job. Being successful with crappy horror movies and low-brow African-American comedies doesn’t make one qualified to run a major studio and deal with talent whose quotes are higher than Morris Chestnut’s. When Pascal goes, she’ll be replaced by someone from the outside. Bank on it.
Thanks for the stats and sharp analysis, Peteinportland. With Brokeback, we have a phenom that’s so unique that it’s pretty hard to make safe predictions. The film could break through in the so-called heartland, but slowly due to word of mouth–perhaps it will take a few brave souls to go this weekend and then tell their friends: “you know the sex wasn’t that explicit and the film was actually good; it didn’t make me feel uncomfortable at all.” On the other hand, it could get the cold shoulder in small-town/red state markets but still hit 100 mil. as an “Energizer Bunny” kind of success in the more liberal markets. (It’s playing in 8 theatres in my area, and while I don’t know how it’s doing in the suburban theatres, I know it continues to packe them in with near sell-out crowds night after night in the downtown art theatre where it’s been playing since the first weekend in January.) Indeed, I still have a number of friends who tell me they will definitely see it by Oscar night. They just haven’t gotten around to it yet (and yes, I believe them). I have other friends who have seen it once or twice and will definitely go again.
Finally, even if it doesn’t make another dime, NOBODY was predicting it would FINISH with 60 million back in the fall. Didn’t Dave himself predict it would top out at 20 million? So as far as I’m concerned “Brokeback Mountain” fans can uncork the champaign right now, if not in terms of Oscars–Crash could still pull an upset as far as I’m concerned–but certainly in terms of financial and critical success for an indie film.
“Perspective demands that I point out that the Brokeback Mountain per-screen for the weekend will be less than the When A Stranger Calls per-screen for Friday alone.”
That is a completely bizarre comparison to make, but perspective demands that I point out it didn’t happen.
Also:
“While this doesn
“BBM looks to do $5 million – $10 million more than Sideways did…”
BBM is only $10 million short of Sideways’ cume right now, with a month until the Oscars. I think it’s a bit crazy to think BBM will make only $15-20M more from now until its (predicted) win and beyond.
For somebody who says there’s no basis to talk of an anti-Brokeback bias, Dave sure likes to stoke that fire.
“but BBM looks to do $5 million – $10 million more than Sideways did”
Yeah…BM is going to do $10 million more than Sideways BY Oscar night. That means it’ll hit $80 million in about a month, and if it wins big, then $100 million isn’t a long shot at all.
“Culpepper will never get Pascal’s job.”
no but he’s “trying” and sometimes that’s just as destructive as actually “getting” it.
I sleep now!
I don’t think that the various Brokeback parodies out there are a sign that the movie is a ‘laughingstock’…on the contrary, it means its the movie everyone’s talking about. When you see some Crash parodies, then we can talk about how much buzz it has all of a sudden (or not, because I can only think of Crash parodies as pointing out how ridiculous the movie is).
Hey David P.,
How did Munich do?………David?
Parodies and satire mean that the thing in question is in the public eye and well known.
The line “God, I wish I knew how to quit you!” is becoming famous.
I also notice that David Poland has backed away from his notion that it’s a Brokeback-Munich race and into the notion that it’s a Brokeback-Crash race, as evidenced by his frontpage headline “Oscar’s Frontrunning Duo”.
This is sort of like how, back in the heyday of Miramax, the Weinsteins managed to position their movie as the leading contender against the movie that was the clear-cut frontrunner, merely by repeating the meme over and over again until it stuck. Forrest Gump vs. Pulp Fiction, Saving Private Ryan vs. Shakespeare in Love, American Beauty vs. Cider House Rules.
Jeff conveniently forgets that Dave is in the analysis business and that it changes day to day. Sometimes films come from nowhere and move into the race. Like Crash. It’s his job to say it and report on it. The Oscar race doesn’t stay stagnant.
All three #1 openers on Superbowl weekends for the last three years have been heavily teen female oriented. When A Stranger Calls, Boogeymen and, er, that dancing one. You Got Served? Remember when that got to #2 on IMDb’s worst 100 list after one week of release. That was funny. But it did make $16mil, so…
Sure is a helluva long way from when the best Superbowl weekend could do was “Eye of the Beholder” making $6mil.
Thanks for the personal attack, Joe, but I’m not conveniently forgetting it. Dave Poland’s problem is that he became part of the story re: Brokeback via his early-on dismissal of it, and since then it’s snowballed for him so that any story becomes part of his crusade against it. He therefore needs to be aware that any story regarding the Oscars will seen as being tilted from his established perspective. I don’t mind you making me part of the narrative (Dave Poland finds another way to diminish Brokeback) but it means that you are also part of the narrative (Brokeback defenders are on to the tactics of the game), and now this post continues the tradition (Brokeback attackers need to shut up).
Thanks, Jeff, for taking it upon yourself to be the Morals police here for David Poland. I’m sure he needs you to be his morals editor. Good looking out for him.
If Poland can spend his time sniping at other writers who he thinks are getting it wrong, he should be able to take it as well. If you want to have a discussion, provide some direct counter-examples to bolster any claims that you have. If you have any substantive statements to make at all.
My only claim is that you want to be the Morals Editor for Dave. I think you just proved it. What more do you want? Taking shots at other writers for being wrong is much different than saying he thinks a movie won’t be as well received as many think it will.
What’s he have to apologize for? Why you on his case? I think Dave has posted enough about how he thinks BBM is the front runner now. You guys want him to cut off his right hand for saying he didn’t consider it #1 back in Dec.
I can also ask, why do you want to curry favor with Dave Poland?
I love reading anonymous posters take shots at the person who runs the site for no reason at all. Other than they have some petty jealousy against him. That’s the net nowadays. Because you don’t agree with what he says its natural to take shots.
I get it. Don’t agree with it. But I get it. Would be nice if some people could be grateful for having the opportunity to ait their views without that though.
Who’s anonymous? I’ve posted my name and email address on this site before. Would you like to do the same, Richard Nash who totally never goes by any other posting names?
The ‘you’re jealous’ concept is and easy way to go after someone you disagree with. Like I said before, if you want to have a discussion, come up with some counter-arguments.
If currying favor means defending something I believe is right than I’ll gladly curry til I’m blue in the face.
If you have the gall to actually come out and counter Jeffrey’s opinion, be prepared to be shotdown with a furious rally and try to be insulted. It ain’t pretty.
If ‘shotdown with a furious rally’ means presenting accurate facts that back up what I’m saying, then you are correct. Also, the only insulting going on is on your side, Bruce.