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David Poland

By David Poland

Summer By Studio

Conclusion –
Here is a broadly estimated guess at what the summer leaderboard will look like in the end

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32 Responses to “Summer By Studio”

  1. Me says:

    I’m not sure about Disney’s number (though it is all a gamble right now – and this number is as correct as any).
    I just think that the combination of Pirates (which has amazing goodwill from the first movie) and Cars (which is starting to pick up some good reviews) could blow the doors off this summer. Anything else Disney finds will just be gravy.

  2. anghus says:

    Wow. Could New Line destroy the goodwill from the Lord of the Rings films any quicker?
    Hope they invested some of that money in something other than shitty films.

  3. Eric says:

    I think “goodwill” is one of the most overused words around here. And it’s such a nebulous concept.

  4. Blackcloud says:

    Did New Line earn any goodwill from LOTR?

  5. waterbucket says:

    Anyone else want to watch Bandidas? That movie seems to be a lot of fun.

  6. palmtree says:

    When His Dark Materials comes out, New Line will be counting on fond memories of LOTR.

  7. MattM says:

    Step Up can be a hit in two easy steps, one which it’s too late to do if hasn’t been done already:
    1. A trailer MUST be attached to every DVD Disney sells of inexplicable phenom “High School Musical.”
    2. Release “Stick It” on DVD in early August, and bundle with free ticket.
    I also think you’re way low on Fox. Garfield looks horrid, but’ll do decent bank, Super Ex-Girlfriend strikes me as the paradigm of a late July sleeper, especially if Superman primes the pump right, and Devil Wears Prada would seem to be a potential hit, at least based on book sales and Streep getting a chance to play ultra-bitch.

  8. Blackcloud says:

    I’ve never read His Dark Materials. Are they close in popularity to LOTR or Harry Potter?

  9. David Poland says:

    I love Meryl Streep, Matt, but have you seen her box office history?
    $100 million doemstic grossers as star? Zero.
    $50 million doemstic grossers as star in the last decade? Zero.
    The Hours did $47 million… thanks to the Oscar push.
    The Manchurian Candidate did $66 million… with Denzel.
    Afer those, One True Thing… $23 million. And that number repeats on Prime and Adaptation, both with significant co-stars.
    I think Garfield will do around $60 million. Super Ex could come on. But Prada has almost no chance of passing $30 million.

  10. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    I’ve been hearing very good response from people in relation to the Super Ex Girlfriend trailer.
    While I’m not saying The Devil Wears Prada is gonna be huge, I think it has the potential to get respectible numbers. Especially if there’s some form of Oprah push or something.
    Anyway, your numbers seem pretty solid I suppose. Although I don’t get the Monster House love.

  11. jeffmcm says:

    I also have wondered about the Monster House love. It looks like the weak sister in a summer filled with Cars, Over the Hedge, the Garfield sequel and Ant Bully. DP, what do you know that you’re not telling us about this movie?
    Devil Wears Prada has been getting lots of good buzz, from what I’ve been hearing.

  12. Josh Massey says:

    As an elementary school teacher, I can tell you the kids were excited about exactly two summer movies last week: “X-Men 3” and “Monster House.”
    They couldn’t have care any less about “Superman Returns.” And, oddly enough – those I’m sure this will change, “Cars” was completely off their radar screen.

  13. Krazy Eyes says:

    I only read the first His Dark Materials book. It was OK but not good enough to inspre me to continue reading the series. My guess is it’s going to be a very tough sell.

  14. Blackcloud says:

    What I know about His Dark Materials is that the author (Pullman?) said the Narnia books are evil and fascistic and the worst thing in history. He said that when Lion, Witch, etc. opened last year. I’m sure that’s the kind of publicity New Line wants. They probably have guys with tranquilizer guns standing by in case he opens his mouth again. Or maybe just regular guns.

  15. MattM says:

    I’m not saying Prada at 100M, but a 50-60M take wouldn’t surprise me at all. What intrigues me is the kind of odd trailer strategy they’ve followed–it’s not a “joke, joke, joke” summary trailer, but simply a scene from the movie, which I think may help with those audiences who (somewhat rightly) believe that a trailer “ruins all the good parts” of a movie.

  16. Cadavra says:

    I too think PRADA could be a sleeper. Streep may not be big B.O., but Hathaway has at least two $100 million hits under her belt. Besides, who were the draws in THE NOTEBOOK?

  17. kojled says:

    I posted this on Anne Thompson’s blog (Risky Biz) so I thought I should also post it here. Alan Green
    Anne and David
    You know, I couldn’t care less about DVC. I didn’t read the book and I don’t like that type of movie. But, I know enough to know what I think doesn’t really matter. DVC may approach a billion dollars in worldwide grosses (despite the fact that I did not see it), and that

  18. Josh Massey says:

    Actually, “Die Hard” was based on a novel – “Nothing Lasts Forever,” by Roderick Thorp. Of course, it had nothing to do with the film being a hit, so your point is the same.

  19. David Poland says:

    Appreciate the post… but think you put it on the wrong entry, Alan…

  20. David Poland says:

    The reason I am high on Monster House is that I think it works more broadly than any of the other animation hitting the market.
    Cars is very boy and kinda young. (How old are you when you stop obsessing on Thomas The Tank Engine?)
    Over The Hedge is already fading.
    Ant Bully barely exists yet.
    Garfield is a niche.
    Monster House seems ready to go boy/girl, still fun for teens, not irritating to adults.
    The Goonies was a surprise #4 in 1985 and is now a hot cult movie. This movie reminds me of an animated version of that vibe… very Donner… more so than Superman Returns… Burton Light (not Lite). Peopel want to have fun in the summer. Pirates wil be huge! And I think Monster House can be the top kids choice of the summer with some significant crossover.
    But I have not seen the complete film… could always be wrong.

  21. jeffmcm says:

    That makes sense, except for “not irritating to adults”…it looks about as irritating as Garfield to me. But I don’t have kids either.

  22. palmtree says:

    Cars will appeal to adults, especially I suspect to those who like automobiles.

  23. jeffmcm says:

    And if there’s one thing we know about Americans, we like automobiles. (Hey, this sounds like an opening for Chucky in Jersey to talk about propaganda).

  24. Eric says:

    We like automobiles, but do we really like movies about automobiles? Recent history suggests not.
    It’s also going to be a lot harder to connect to the characters in Cars than in any other Pixar movie… I mean, they’re cars, fer chrissake.

  25. jeffmcm says:

    Cars are harder to relate to than bugs or fish?

  26. palmtree says:

    I think many people have “relationships” with their cars…giving them names, decorating them, having fond memories of them, etc.
    What’s creepy though is that the cars are watching other cars race…i thought it would at least try to connect it to the human world as in Toy Story.

  27. Eric says:

    Yes, I think cars are harder to relate to than bugs or fish. A car is not a living organism.
    And yes, if anyone can pull it off, it’s the Pixar crew. But nothing I’ve seen of “Cars” makes me think it’ll be up to par.
    Pixar still has the best record of quality in the business, but they peaked with “Monsters, Inc.” and have been on a slight decline since “Toy Story 2.”

  28. jeffmcm says:

    How does that work, since Toy Story 2 was before Monsters Inc.?
    I still disagree with you on the cars thing…you don’t get inside a fish every day and go around town and interact with people inside of other fish. But that’s just my opinion.

  29. Eric says:

    Huh. My mistake, I thought “Monsters” came first. But that works even better for my point, which is that it’s mostly been downhill since “Monsters.”
    The car thing is, as you say, probably opinion. I’ve just never had any sort of emotional connection with a car– I appreciate my car, I have fond memories of times in it, but the car itself? It’s inanimate metal.
    My expectations might be different if the design of the cars were different. As it is, the eyes-for-windshields and especially the cars’ mouths are goofy and jarring.

  30. jeffmcm says:

    The cars do look too much like those claymation Chevron car commercials.

  31. kojled says:

    ‘die hard’ was based on a novel? hmm. sorry i posted in the wrong entry, but it’s just as relevant here as anywhere.

  32. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    Sample conversation with my best friend when we were at the movies recently upon seeing the big display for Cars:
    Me: I wanna see that!
    My Friend: You’re kidding right? That’s looks like a silly kids movie.
    Me: But it’s Pixar!
    My Friend: Oh! We have to see it then.
    Then we saw “She’s the Man” and the world fell off it’s axis because it wasn’t that bad.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon