Interesting game this week… plenty of people squealing about Pirates 3 with not a thought in the world about the long and easily understood history of Memorial Day weekends… very little talk about the softness of Shrek The Third… and Universal selling the idea that the high teens would be a happy success for Knocked Up.
It’s all perception these days. Reality, what a concept!
http://www.soulduster.com/ on: Friday Estimates by Klady
http://www.rehabsandrentals.com/ on: Friday Estimates by Klady
Joe Leydon on: Weekend Estimates by MacKlady
Abi on: Weekend Estimates by MacKlady
betavaftrar on: 3-Day Estimates By Klady That Made The Clown Cry
Tashie Jackson on: Friday Estimates by Klady
Jeffrey Boam's Doctor on: Weeeknd Estimate Leftovers by Klady
DiggityDawg on: Weeeknd Estimate Leftovers by Klady
David Poland on: Weeeknd Estimate Leftovers by Klady
berg on: Weeeknd Estimate Leftovers by Klady
Weeeknd Estimate Leftovers by Klady
Friday Estimate by MuthaSmurfin’ Klady
4 Day Estimates by Vehicular Klady
Friday Estimates by Green Klady
4 Day Estimates by Wolfpack Klady
Weekend Estimates by Screaming Rio Klady
Friday Estimates by Rio de JaKlady
see all »
[twitter-widget username="DavidPoland" hiderss="true" hidereplies="true" hidefrom="true" items="3" showts="60" title=" " targetBlank="true"][twitter-widget username="MCNTweets" hiderss="true" hidereplies="true" hidefrom="true" items="3" showts="60" title=" " targetBlank="true"]
It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” â some novel, you know?
So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.
And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it â I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.
There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.
I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury â he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” â and I’d forgot who he was.
So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging â I was with her at that moment â she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.
But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy namedâ” “Yeah, sure â you want his phone number?”
My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher
“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that Iâm on the phone with you now, after all thatâs been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didnât seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. Thereâs not a case of that. He wasnât using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had â if that were what the accusation involved â the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. Iâm not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, âYou know, itâs not this, itâs thatâ? Because â let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, thatâs what it lacked. Thatâs what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.
~ David Simon
For what it is, a romantic comedy with no stars and a modest budget and not a ton of marketing, why shouldn’t Knocked Up be happy with the high teens? Granted, people are looking at it through the rose-tinted lenses of 40YOV, but still, it’s a cast member from a tv show and an unknown guy, and a director who isn’t a name yet.
Waitress is one of the best films of the year, if you haven’t seen it, go check that out. Wonderful stuff…what indie films should be….
Granted, people are looking at it through the rose-tinted lenses of 40YOV, but still, it’s a cast member from a tv show and an unknown guy, and a director who isn’t a name yet.
I dunno, the level of Apatow worship among my circle of friends (the exact target audience for Knocked Up) is pretty heavy. Of course that didn’t help Joss Whedon and Serenity, but Knocked Up is a very different creature.
Oh, and something that’s been bugging me for awhile: am I the only one who thinks the trailers and ads for Knocked Up make it look aggressively unpleasant? I don’t mean unpleasant in the “boy this would be hard to sit through” sense, I mean unpleasant in the “this looks like it was shot on Hi8” sense. The IMDb says it’s 35mm but that doesn’t seem to be reflected in what I’ve seen so far.
I think Knocked Up will do quite well this weekend but also have legs….40 Year Old Virgin made a lot of money, and I figure whoever saw that is gonna see this, more or less…
Anyway, already bought my tickets…lets hope it’s as good as the reviews….
Inside source says the budget of Knocked Up was close to $60M, so not exactly modest, but pretty tame to some of the other stuff out there.
I’m 25, everyone I know can’t wait to see it this weekend. Yet, literally everyone in my circle also saw Grindhouse opening weekend (and that includes the females). So I really don’t know how well this will do.
I saw Waitress last weekend…and I’d go as far as to call it pleasant…nice. But that’s it. My fiance, on the other hand, LOVED it. take that as you will. I haven’t seen any of the “Part three’s” yet, and proud of it.
I heard the budget for KNocked Up was half that and frankly, it’s more believable that they’d make it for $30 million than $60 million.
I saw it earlier today. I really enjoyed it. I think it would take a really cynical type to not enjoy it. It misses sometimes in its humour, but when it hits the target, its beautiful.
So I was checking the movie listings because I wanted to find out the showings of Severence in my area and to my horror saw that one of my favorite theatres is showing only 4 films. On FOURTEEN screens. One for 28 Weeks Later, three for Knocked Up, and the other ten screens for Pirates and Shrek. And this from a theatre that normally has arty fare on top of the blockbusters. Sweet Jesus.
Bob, not sure what trailers you’ve been watching. Knocked Up, visually, looks as good as we can expect from a comedy.
I hope Knocked Up does well. While I don’t think it will get to $29mil, there hasn’t been a flatout comedy in a while and people who are exhausted from the 3s could make it a good choice.
I’m happy for Waitress. I’ll have to wait for the DVDs in Thailand, I’m sure.
I’m kind of surprised at the softness of Shrek compared to the previous 2. Maybe it will pick up once more kiddies get out of school.
Shrek 2 was huge but left a really bad taste in many peoples mouth. Many parents I know were put off by the increased blue humor in the second film.
Shrek the Third, based on what I’ve read, seems more cut from that cloth as opposed to the wonderful first film. The Shrek films also have not aged well. I loved the first on its initial release but by the time I rewatched it for number 2 it felt dated. Especially The Matrix jokes.
Dreamworks has carved out a niche with the pop/ironic humor market but I think the Pixar films will live on due to their sincerity.
I have heard many complaints about Shrek 2. I know I didn’t care for it much. But no one has ever mentioned anything about “blue humor.”
Then I guess we know different people.
Just read that Knocked Up had a nice opening Friday – about $8 million – pretty good, looks like it could easily do 40 Year Old Virgin numbers and right now, it’s the only real summer movie I want to see, though Once and Waitress sound good.
There’s going to be all of this hype surrounding the big 3 “3” movies being disappointments, but what could anybody reasonably expect? I mean, the hype for May 2007’s onslaught had been doing on for over a year and a half, which begs two real questions?
One – if these dates were set in stone, SO far in advance, how did the hell did two of these films STILL get rushed right before hitting theatres? I mean, it’s obvious Pirates 3 was barely finished in time – could have easily chopped 40 minutes out of that film and they very well might have. Was there really not enough lead time?
Two – this has already been talked about, but realistically, how much could these films really gross, back-to-back? There has to be a ceiling. My expectation, all along, was that they would combine for about $1 billion. As it stands now, the films look to total out to about $950 million between the three of them. That’s basically a $50 mill difference for THREE films – are accountants at the three studios really crying over that much?
That said, the rest of the summer looks very strong. Despite the big-time hype, I think Ocean’s 13 is actually kind of counter-programming for this time of year – Warner’s should really be expecting an older crowd, especially with Pacino being added to the mix. Nothing wrong with that, it can still do $130 million. Unless that crowd really goes for Mr. Brooks.
Although I hated the first one and do not want to see it, I think people are really underestimating Fantastic Four 2. The marketing campaign has been the strongest of the summer and the ads have been deafening. I can easily see a $70 million opening and probably do a bit higher than the first one.
At the same time, people are really overestimating Transformers – that film is going to do $150 mill, AT BEST. I don’t care about Shia-hype, the film is still about toys! It’s not a four quadrant film – women and audiences over 40 are not going to this one. And even if it does open over $50 million, which I doubt, it’s going to get killed the next week with Pottermania. I really do not get why people are expecting Independence Day numbers from this movie.
Who would want to cough up to go see Transformers in a theatre? Or on a bootleg DVD for that matter? Michael Bay being Michael Bay it will be two hours plus, but you can see it for free on YouTube… and I reckon the thirty seconds will be better than the movie!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxH2JrFrcuw
Showbizdata has $13.4 million for Pirates, 9.9 million for Knocked Up and $7.5 million for Shrek. Pirates fall is a little less than Spiderman 3 but if it tracks S3 for the rest of the weekend it looks like it is headed to $45-47 million down high 50s. I am surprised that this movie is not easily #1 among the big 3. I thought going last gave it an advantage. And I thought the built in audience off the second film was strongest. Fatigue and less than stellar reviews and word of mouth I guess have held it back. It will have to hold well over the next two weeks to have a shot at beating S3.
Knocked Up at 9.9 is excellent. It will beat estimates and should hold well.
Good hold for the Shrek 3. Down less than 50%. Could be starting to find some legs but still seems likely to get to “only” around $300.
I see no profitability issues for any of the studios in big 3 but any upside from these films relative to internal or external models seems unlikely. The bigger issue, if there is one, is that the press may discuss them as disappointing. The rest of the summer will probably make that irrelevant as long as some films do big business and beat expectations and Knocked Up has provided a nice boost to start.
>if these dates were set in stone, SO far in advance, how did the hell did two of these films STILL get rushed right before hitting theatres? I mean, it’s obvious Pirates 3 was barely finished in time – could have easily chopped 40 minutes out of that film and they very well might have. Was there really not enough lead time?>if these dates were set in stone, SO far in advance, how did the hell did two of these films STILL get rushed right before hitting theatres? I mean, it’s obvious Pirates 3 was barely finished in time – could have easily chopped 40 minutes out of that film and they very well might have. Was there really not enough lead time?< Geoff, the way things were going, it looked like Pirates 3 was still filming in April. Absurd, yes.
I think people are really underestimating Fantastic Four 2. The marketing campaign has been the strongest of the summer and the ads have been deafening. I can easily see a $70 million opening and probably do a bit higher than the first one.
At the same time, people are really overestimating Transformers – that film is going to do $150 mill, AT BEST.
No shit. I think with the original F4 they were going to spend a nickel on a cheap picture in Vancouver. Then when Xmen and X2 and Spiderman ALL made money, they thought: “Let’s spend some bucks and maybe this turkey will make more money.”
Looks like they dropped the money into F4-2 (ROTSS ?) at the start.
Trailers look cool…
Bob, not sure what trailers you’ve been watching. Knocked Up, visually, looks as good as we can expect from a comedy.
The ones that have been playing on TV for the past two months, give or take. There’s a harsh flatness to the lighting and it looks like they tried to take the edge off by turning the sharpness way way down. There was a promotional fluff piece on E! or Comedy Central or something a couple of days back and the behind-the-scenes footage had more visible detail than the film clips. It might just be a crap telecine job and not reflective of the actual film, but even on a mid-sized TV it’s very noticeable. And as an aside I’ve never considered comedy and visual chops to be mutually exclusive.
I’ve been telling friends that I think this movie, Knocked Up, will under perform. I say this because although the movie appeals to males in its tone pregnancy is NOT hot. The chick looks good and is on a hit show but she’s pregnant. Her legs are in stirrups in the trailer. Uhh no thanks.
Looks like you were wrong. Uni’s gotta be thrilled with those numbers.
Oh, geez. More Michael Bay bashing. Now that‘s a surprise. I’m not exactly a big fan of his, but it’s a movie about robots and things exploding and he does explosions quite well.
The amount of times people have said “I can’t believe people want to see a Michael Bay film” is ridiculous. You don’t have to see it, so don’t. Other people do want to see it and I doubt it’s because it’s a Michael Bay movie. Get the hell over it and stop acting like a baby.
Kamikaze, I really have not seen much Bay-bashing. Honestly, if Paul Greengrass were directing this thing, it’s STILL a toy movie.
Let’s face it, though – the guy did a asteroid movie where you never really get to SEE the asteroid and a Pearl Harbor movie where you see the POV of the missile that dropped on the Arizona and killed over a thousand people. Dude makes mad buck, has lots of ladies, but has EARNED his share of lumps.
Predictably, I fall into the trap of Bay-bashing. Regardless, I’m sure if some one can pull off a toy action epic, he can.
I sure hope so Nicol.
I was referring to this comment (and others):
“Who would want to cough up to go see Transformers in a theatre? Or on a bootleg DVD for that matter? Michael Bay being Michael Bay it will be two hours plus…”
As I’ve said, barely anyone is going to see Transformers because “it’s a Michael Bay movie”. They’re going to see it because it’s about cars and trucks and helicopters turning into robots.
Pirates of the Caribbean was based on a theme park ride, but that turned out pretty darn well (the first one, I speak of). People don’t care where something originated. If it was that it’d be kids sitting around playing with toys and making KAPOW noises. But it’s not that. It’s cars turning into robots and destroying lots of stuff.
Yes, Bay has made some tripe, but he also made Bad Boys and The Rock and, to some extent, The Island. Personally, I’d rather see what Bay (who seems like a good fit for the project) has to offer than have the studio pull in some wanky poseur who wants to get to the human drama of the story and who wants to turn it into some dialogue-driven quasi-art film. It’s about stuff turning into robots. That’s it.
I’ll happily take it all back if the movie is terrible (but he’ll still have some good movies to his credit), but I’ve never seen the transformers brand as anything other than an excuse to blow shit up.
Well, I might go to see a movie about stuff turning into robots if it were directed by James Ivory…
Gosh, I wonder what a Francois Truffaut movie about stuff turning into robots would have been like?
Well, like they say, a job’s a job…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wBvVH_r940
Doug R: That is the funniest freakin’ thing I’ve seen on YouTube in a long time. And all the more timely, with the recent announcement of another “Masters of the Universe” movie. (Will Frank Langella come back to play Skeltor?)
DP you are way off about KNOCKED UP. It’s going to outgross 40YR VIRGIN and its going to do it the hard way. You seemed to miss that this is a great adult date film w/ phenom word of mouth. Its ANNIE HALL for this generation. And its 29m weekend will prove my point. Once again the zeitgeist left you at the station.. choo choooo !
I’m pretty sure you see the asteroid in Armageddon.
Dude, “Annie Hall for this generation”? It’s only been out for five days. Settle down with the hyperbole for a week at least. đ