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By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Klady


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64 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady”

  1. Nicol D says:

    Finally got around to seeing Ratatouille and Die Hard.
    Glad to see Remy & co. are holding on. I would argue it is the best film of the summer yet. The human characters were extremely likable also. Really no complaints and Peter O’Toole was heart tugging.
    As for Die Hard, I was pleasantly surprised. The sequence in the underground tunnel and the brawl with Maggie Q were two of the best action sequences I have seen in recent years. Maybe just because I had very low expectations but I was surprised.
    I did think the concept felt like it was left over from a pre-Y2K draft though. Anyway glad to see Willis back in action.
    I’m also a bit surprised at how well 1408 is doing.

  2. EthanG says:

    Great hold for Rescue Dawn, ridiculous opening for My Best Friend. (people must have really loved The Valet) Even greater start for Talk to Me.
    The most shocking hold of the year has to be License to Wed.

  3. Geoff says:

    All around, it looks like a pretty strong weekend, probably beating the comparable weekends in 2004, 2005, and 2006 by double digit percentages.
    Potter is probably going to end up grossing right in the middle, for the whole series, around $275 million, which is really nothing to sneeze at with this competition.
    No doubt, for a Pixar film, Rat is slightly underperforming, but honestly, did Cars or Finding Nemoe have to deal with two big mega-grossers in their next two weekends? Considering the competition, it’s holding up well and will probably do $225 million or so.
    In retrospect, Disney should have said, to hell with Surf’s Up and not overestimating Shrek and just opened in the first week of June, which would have given it more breathing room – then it would probably have outgrossed Cars? But who could have predicted that Shrek would fade so fast?
    Have to say that despite my continued disdain for Bay and the verbal jockeying with Mr. Murphy, I am kind of rooting for Transformers to take the summer’s title. It’s going to crack $300 million and has an outside shot of beating Spiderman. I think by late August, this summer is going to turn out to be a real squeaker at the top. What appeals to me, and I might even actually see it this week, is that the top three for this summer was pre-ordained, for so long, that by the time May came around, I was already bored with the prospect of the “three-quels.”
    Nice to see a little surprise at the box office, for a change. And yeah, 1408 is a genuine surprise and that Die Hard might actually outgross it’s predecessors, “adjusted against inflation,” is a genuine surprise, as well. I saw Die Hard, last Sunday, and thought it was a lot of fun.

  4. Nicol D says:

    I’m actually not surprised by the hold on License to Wed. It’s one of the predictions I got right at the beginning of the summer ( I was wrong on Sicko, Nancy Drew and Georgia Rule).
    Wed may be a stupid comedy but Williams has become Eddie Murphy lite. In a family role, he can do okay business. I think he is annoying as hell, but to many he is an old favourite. A comfortable shoe you can put on from a bygone era.
    I am also sure Moore and the other guy have some teen appeal. Every summer has these types of films. In the eighties it would have starred one of the two Corey’s with Lucy Deakins. Richard Pryor would have been the minister.

  5. EthanG says:

    I certainly wouldn’t write off Potter as unable to hit $300 million just yet. It has “the most anticipated book of all time” to help support it in the coming weeks and no one knows the impact of that.
    Also, the market is heavy right now, but other than Rat it has no direct comp till August 3rd. (Underdog..which might not do any better than Firehouse Dog)
    I dont think mom and dad in general are going to take the tykes to see Sandler as a gay man, Lohan as a pole dancer etc. Hairspray might be a threat, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

  6. Josh Massey says:

    Mmmm… Lucy Deakins.
    Anyway, of course you’re very close to right. Instead of Deakins, it would have starred the two Coreys and Heather Graham. License to Wed would have been the cleverly titled sequel to License to Drive.

  7. Nicol D says:

    I know, I know. I just used to have such a crush on Deakins.
    The Great Outdoors…in jean cutoffs…
    I think she retired from acting. She was quite talented though.

  8. CleanSteve says:

    Wow. Good call on Lucy Deakins. From the hot town tramp in Great Outdoors to the sensitive, autistic boy helping Boy Who Could Fly, she is an overlooked 80’s teen movie icon.
    That actual reminds–because of the 80’s connection–that Monster Squad hits (unpirated) dvd next week. It’s been the hot movie topic with my daughters lately, outside of harry Potter and The Simpsons movie. I’ve hyped it up to them and they’ve watched the trailer online several times. “Gillman ate my Twinkie” is uttered ad nauseum. Hope the movie doesn’t disappoint them or I’m in trouble. My older girl really liked Something Wicked This Way Comes, which we watched friday night. Great, old-fashioned movie, departures from the book notwithstanding. Really enjoyed seeing it again. Johnathon Pryce remained extremely menacing.
    Oh well. Sorry to interrupt the BO chat, but the Lucy Deakins comment amused me.

  9. CleanSteve says:

    I wrote:
    “From the hot town tramp in Great Outdoors to the sensitive, autistic boy helping Boy Who Could Fly, she is an overlooked 80’s teen movie icon.”
    That made no sense. Should read:
    “From the hot town tramp in Great Outdoors to the sensitive, autistic boy-helping teen in The Boy Who Could Fly, she is an overlooked 80’s teen movie icon.”

  10. Nicol D says:

    Something Wicked This Way Comes ages quite well. The cover art for the Monster Squad DVD is actually quite cool. That other 80’s classic Red Dawn also has a special edition out this week.

  11. jeffmcm says:

    Red Dawn gave me nightmares as a kid – not the good kind.
    I have a hard time imagining that Underdog will make any money at all – I’ve seen very little publicity for it (granted I’m not the target audience) and I’m thinking that people aren’t going to connect this live-action CGI thing to the original cartoon. Anyone else?

  12. Chicago48 says:

    Is it me but is Talk to me the 3rd all-black movie this year? Isn’t that a low amount for this time of year? (Tyler Perry, Norbit and Talk to me) Did I miss something?

  13. Joe Leydon says:

    Chicago: Pride doesn’t qualify?

  14. James Leer says:

    Stomp the Yard?

  15. Nicol D says:

    If we are talking about demographics and genres I do not think it would be fair to call Norbit an ‘all black movie’. Eddie Murphy has had a career that has spanned 3 decades and has been a higher box office draw than most other performers (of any race) who have ever lived.
    I think Norbit’s genre is just ‘comedy’.

  16. jeffmcm says:

    So if it’s successful, it’s not a Black movie anymore?

  17. Nicol D says:

    No Jeff,
    It’s racist to ghettoize a performer that has proven his appeal across all demographics and races for 3 decades.
    Tyler Perry has not done that. Murphy has. Big difference.
    Anyway…didn’t you say you didn’t want to address me anymore in these threads. Why now…you lookin’ for a scrap on a Sunday afternoon.
    I am not in the mood for your pissant word parsings today so you can ‘show’ everyone how evil, big bad Nicol is.

  18. jeffmcm says:

    Ha ha ha.
    I just want to know which Eddie Murphy movies are “Black” and which ones aren’t: Harlem Nights? Coming to America? Vampire in Brooklyn?

  19. jeffmcm says:

    I’m not trying to make you look bad…but you really left yourself open on that one.

  20. Joe Leydon says:

    But Nicol: Would you agree that Norbit at least qualifies as a movie with a largely black cast? I’m leery of putting words in anyone else’s mouth — or posting — but I think that is what Chicago meant. Is there a decline in movies with largely black casts this year? I don’t know.

  21. Nicol D says:

    Are you inferring that in Hollywood there is no such thing as a ‘black movie ‘ being a genre?
    That some films aren’t marketed to an African American audience as others are to a female audience, a gay audience, teen audience, action audience etc.
    Is this what you are saying?
    Explain yourself, or don’t waste my time. What the hell film school did you go to Jeff…head in sand U?

  22. Nicol D says:

    That last comment was to Jeff MCM.

  23. Nicol D says:

    Again, are you saying there is no such thing as a ‘black film’ as a genre?
    That is very different than what Murphy has done with his career.

  24. Nicol D says:

    I have said before, I know I am nobody’s favourite poster. But I do not think -YOU- could make me or anyone else look bad.
    Sometimes your ignorance of the industry astounds me. And you want to be a filmmaker, y’say?

  25. jeffmcm says:

    Nicol: I would say that it’s possible for a movie to be Black, a comedy, and financially successful all at the same time, while you’re trying to make them mutually exclusive; and questioning your use of the word ‘ghettoize’, which you clearly mean as a negative thing, and which it seems that you think is appropriate treatment for Stomp the Yard and Pride.

  26. Joe Leydon says:

    Nicol: I would agree that there are some films aimed primarily at black audiences (even though they may have appeal to whites) — just as there are films aimed primarily at women (even though they may have appeal to men) — and there are other movies with largely black casts that are aimed at all audiences (Pursuit of Happyness, perhaps). But either way: In 2007, are there fewer movies with largely black casts, period?

  27. jeffmcm says:

    Nicol, the only one who could make you look bad is yourself.

  28. doug r says:

    So what does that make White Chicks?

  29. Nicol D says:

    I agree with what you wrote. And that is really all I was saying. Norbit was conceived in the same way Pursuit of Happiness was conceived. A film with a large black cast but is designed for a much larger demographic.
    I actually think what I wrote was very clear, but as usual, everyone’s favoutite obsessive comes out of the wood work like a termite and has to parse my language out of context.
    Thanks for elaborating on what I was saying.
    What is the point. You start at the conclusion and cherry pick facts to fit it.
    If I could cure cancer you would say I invented it to make a profit.
    Isn’t this taking away from your time bullying kids on a playground?

  30. EDouglas says:

    That’s not a bad amount for “Talk to Me” considering that it averaged that amount in 33 theatres vs. 5 or 6. I think that with word-of-mouth, this could get to $8 or 9 million with that sort of opening as they expand it through the end of the month.

  31. jeffmcm says:

    Nicol: Actually I have to go see Captivity again for the fifth time, I ran out of kleenex before.

  32. MattM says:

    The reason License to Wed and 1408 are holding well is simple–they have no competition in their sectors. Other than “Knocked Up,” there’s not another romantic comedy until “No Reservations” in the marketplace (save to the extent that “Chuck and Larry” gets marketed in that direction). “1408” has the upmarket thriller segment all to its lonesome probably till Bourne.
    Potter faces a lot more competition than you might think. Hairspray’s going for that same audience, as are Underdog and Bratz.

  33. Wrecktum says:

    Not a bad drop for Transformers, but the jury’s still out on whether it’ll have the legs to beat SM3.
    I had a chance to finally see Transformers on Friday. While it certainly isn’t the worst movie I’ve ever seen in the theater, it is the worst I’ve seen the past decade.
    I would be shocked and disturbed that anyone could enjoy such nonsense, but I learned years ago that people’s taste, even when unfathomable, is their own opinion and it must be respected.

  34. Chicago48 says:

    I can’t believe Hollyweird is making a movie about Bratz.
    Okay, I was corrected. Pride was an all-black cast and Stomp the Yard, which is on DVD – whew! that was quick! I just saw STY last night online and was bored to death! How in the world that movie captivated the audience is beyond me.

  35. doug r says:

    I don’t think Transformers is going to pass Pirates 3. I don’t think Transformers is going to pass $300 million domestic.
    Looking at the averages, Sicko could easily double their screens.
    Pirates and Ocean’s both have higher per screen averages than Captivity.

  36. L.B. says:

    A Nicol-Jeff pissing match over a post by Chicago48? What ring of Hell did I land on?
    I copied Nicol’s movie weekend and enjoyed both films. RAT is really wonderful and I hope it in no way is considered a disappointment. DH4 was better than expected, but mostly proved how much I enjoy that character and love watching Bruce deliver and receive massive amounts of pain. I’m extremely happy for it’s surprising success.

  37. Don Murphy says:

    Rectum and Doug
    Dance for me like the monkeys you are

  38. Joe Leydon says:

    Don: Just be content to laugh all the way to the bank.

  39. jeffmcm says:

    Ratatouille is indeed great – I would be happy if it could outgross Cars, which is one oy my least favorite Pixar movies.
    I wouldn’t call Transformers the worst movie of the decade (Flyboys), year (Norbit), or even this month (Captivity). So, uh, good job for that.

  40. Wrecktum says:

    I’m sorry that I didn’t like your movie, Mr. Murphy. I wish it success.
    “I wouldn’t call Transformers the worst movie of the decade (Flyboys), year (Norbit), or even this month (Captivity). So, uh, good job for that.”
    I wouldn’t waste my time seeing movies like that, jeffmcm. You have either an extraordinary masochistic streak or way too much time and money on your hands.

  41. jeffmcm says:

    I was paid to see Flyboys, I’ll see any horror movie that comes out (Captivity), and I would use the phrase ‘morbid curiosity’ for Norbit.

  42. Blackcloud says:

    “I would be shocked and disturbed that anyone could enjoy such nonsense, but I learned years ago that people’s taste, even when unfathomable, is their own opinion and it must be respected.”
    C’mon, Wrecktum, you should know better than that. Respecting other people’s opinions violates the posting rules here. I’m sorry, but I have no choice but to report you.

  43. mariamu says:

    just got back from Shrek the 3rd. Really awful especially in the use of pop songs. on the other hand I enjoyed Parker Posey in Broken English. Has anyone seen this film–I know that it’s in limited release. The story wasn’t much but her performance was worth it. Also went to see the rerelease of Jim Henson’s 1986 film Labryinth. I don’t know why they decided to rerelease it but it gave me the chance to see it in a theatre for the first time. Most of the muppets got on my nerves but I loved David Bowie as the Goblin King and the design of the film is marvelous.
    Hoping to get to the new Potter film by the middle of this week and will continue to make headway on stuff like FF3,DH4 and Knocked Up.

  44. Joe Leydon says:

    Even a genuine porn star is turned off by the trend toward violence against women in movies. All the more reason to think the worst of folks who defend “torture porn.”

  45. Nicol D says:

    I know this is totally off-topic so feel free to ignore the post but;
    My significant other and I are almost finished season 5 of The Sopranos. We only started watching it this year. Whipped through the first 4 seasons and thought it was stunning. Couldn’t stop praising it and wondered why it took so long to get into it.
    Now, with only two episodes left to go in Season 5…we turned to each other and said “Man, this season is pure shite.”
    The Drea De Matteo stuff is good but beyond that…what a waste. The episode long Lynch rip-off dream sequence was painful to watch. Painful.
    We chocked it up to the new writer/producer Matthew Weiner that season but Chase has to take some reponsibility. Was he like, out takin’ a smoke during the story sessions?
    Real shite! Just had to get that off my chest. We put on Michael J. Fox in The Hard Way after that. Very under-rated.
    Now, back to your regularly scheduled program.

  46. Joe Leydon says:

    Nicol D: By John Badham, an under-rated director. And was James Woods ever better at self-parody?

  47. Nicol D says:

    Agreed again. Badham was one of the great studio directors for hire of the past 40 years. Saturday Night Fever, War Games, Blue Thunder…I even liked Point of No Return (although that could be because I was able to meet Ms. Fonda at the time and she was very sweet).
    As for Woods…the man is a God among men.

  48. ployp says:

    Are we at the end of the torture porn-phase? We’ll probably have to see how Cabin Fever 2 does. Are there any other of the ‘genre’ coming our way?
    $300 million or not, I hear they’re making another Transformers.

  49. jeffmcm says:

    Joe, every time you feel a need to editorialize about a movie you have not seen, an angel dies.

  50. doug r says:

    War Games and Blue Thunder-great.
    Point of No Return-not so much-well, disappointing compared to La Femme Nikita.
    Stakeout is wonderful.

  51. jeffmcm says:

    Considering that Cabin Fever 1 did not feature any torture, or porn, Cabin Fever 2’s fate is irrelevant.

  52. Joe Leydon says:

    OK, if we’re really going to appreciate John Badham: The Bingo Long Traveling All-Stars and Motor Kings — good stuff.

  53. EDouglas says:

    jeffmcm, one day when you’re a little bit older you’ll understand and appreciate the greatness of Flyboys. I still can’t believe you hated it *that* much.

  54. mysteryperfecta says:

    Concerning Underdog, the audience I saw Rat with laughed at the trailer, so it may actually find an audience. Garfield: The Movie made $75 million, and he hasn’t been cool with the younger set in years and years (i.e. when I was a kid).

  55. Joe Leydon says:

    Mystery: But do contemporary youngsters even know who Underdog is? I remember years ago taking my son to see Mr. Magoo. While driving to the theater, I asked him: Had he ever seen a Mr. Magoo cartoon? No. Had any of his friends ever mentioned seeing a Mr. Magoo cartoon? No. Has he ever heard of Mr. Magoo before? No. And I thought: “Oh, boy! This one’ll have trouble finding an audience!” And it did.

  56. L.B. says:

    To draw a kid audience, they don’t have to sell the nostalgia. They just need to sell the “dog in a cape” concept. (Which is a far easier concept to sell than “myoptic old man gets into hijinks”.)

  57. Joe Leydon says:

    Good point, L.B. I’ve been told by some parents that the Austin Powers movies were very popular with their adolescent children, and you won’t find much nostalgia for ’60s spy spoofs in that demographic.

  58. Rob says:

    I saw Broken English and liked it – Posey’s been on a roll lately. I thought she was terrific in this, Fay Grim and The OH in Ohio.

  59. jeffmcm says:

    Edouglas, I hated it that much. It failed on every level that a cinematic experience could fail, for me, and I hope I die before I enjoy it.

  60. LexG says:

    I used to love Badham; I still love those movies, in fact, just unfortunate that he doesn’t work much anymore. Seem to remember him popping up directing an episode of “The Shield” a couple years back, and some HBO TVMs.
    Be sure not to forget “Whose Life is it Anyway?” with an underrated/forgotten Richard Dreyfuss performance. Heck, I even like his cycling movie with Costner, “American Flyers,” and get a bemused chuckle out of the risible-but-fun “Nick of Time.” The guy could crank out anything from “Saturday Night Fever” to “Dracula” to “Short Circuit” and always deliver a solid, crackerjack movie with a slick sheen. Some really good stuff, and indeed one of the great “journeyman” directors, the kind which we don’t see much of these days.

  61. Hallick says:

    “War Games and Blue Thunder-great.
    Point of No Return-not so much-well, disappointing compared to La Femme Nikita.”
    For me, Point of No Return is the quintessential example of a clueless and cheeseball Hollywood remake (of a cool but flawed film). Probably because PoNR was the first remake I’d seen after having seen the original first. I’m sure the U.S. version of The Vanishing makes my example look like an AFI top 100 winner, but then I’d learned my lesson early and never saw it.

  62. hendhogan says:

    it’s weird. you all were talking about badham and now i’m looking that he’s directing the next episode of “las vegas.”

  63. Geoff says:

    I really liked John Badham – Saturday Night Fever is one of my five favorite movies and WarGames REALLY holds up, well. Stakeout was quite funny, as well.
    What DID happen to him? Was Nick of Time the last studio movie he directed?
    Actually, I can remember that he did direct some episodes of Heroes, this season – really dug that show, but the finale was lame.

  64. Oh god do not mention Nick of Time. I’ll go into a seizure.

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4