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David Poland

By David Poland

Sunday Estimates by Klady – Oct 14

There has been a weekend like this in this October slot before, though by any historical standard, this was a strong weekend for mid-October. 2003

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61 Responses to “Sunday Estimates by Klady – Oct 14”

  1. Joe Leydon says:

    Nikki is calling Game Plan as No. 2. If she turns out to be right, does that make her the savvier box-office guru?

  2. NickF says:
    BOM has it at #2 also. Since it’s a family movie it would increase more on Saturday and today.
    The real fight will be for the third spot. A soft George Clooney opening or We Own The Night?
    I’m still waiting to see how much Elizabeth: The Costume Age cost to make.

  3. Josh Massey says:

    While I’m not terribly concerned, shouldn’t Feel the Noise move into the Top 10 based on those numbers?

  4. Joe Leydon says:

    Josh — Let’s face it: Len and David just aren’t into reggaet

  5. bipedalist says:

    Tyler Perry. The Oprah factor.

  6. David Poland says:

    There is something screwy with the chart today… my apologies… also a problem with Across The Universe… looking into it…
    Tyler Perry does get a boost from Oprah, but he was making tens of millions on his stage shows before he ever made his first appearance on that show. He is a black cultural phenomenon, who has converted his massive stage success to the screen. Oprah probably gets her ratings boosted by him, actually.
    And Joe… why continue to pursue the stupidity. You must know that Nikki writes what she is told by Sony and/or Universal on a given weekend. Period. She has no interest or insight into box office. Len is actually in the numbers with EDI and projects based on his 20 years of history. He is not mouthing someone else’s numbers. If Sony turns out to be right and Len wrong, so be it. But let’s not confuse ourselves just so we can shake our little finger at mean ol’ fact-demanding David.

  7. Wrecktum says:

    Klady uses EDI for his numbers? No wonder they’re always off the studio estimates.

  8. grandcosmo says:

    Wow, “The Final Season” must have been giving away a dose of gonorrhea with every paid admission.

  9. Lota says:

    Inner city folk especially know who Tyler Perry is, African American or not, since he talks about common poverty problems etc. I am not a religious person, but he still rocks with approaching poverty financial and otherwise with some creativity. Good for him. His stage shows are available for sale and via his website I’m sure his media-4-sale has made millions as well.

  10. Joe Leydon says:

    But David: If she’s right, and he’s wrong, and you attack the person who’s right while defending the person who is wrong, who are we to believe?

  11. anghus says:

    ‘who are we to believe?’
    it’s just box office numbers. i love it as much as the next guy, but it’s just estimates. Does position on the chart really matter?
    the sun will still rise tommorow if We Own the Night is #3.

  12. David Poland says:

    Joe – First, Anghus is right.
    Secondly, my ongoing point it, there is no “she.” She is writing up a press release, not looking at the numbers. And mostly, she is spinning… and that is almost always inaccurate. But you don’t much care about that, do you? You seem to be just fine about her going out of her way to piss on George Clooney and Good Night, And Good Luck and an $11 million wide open for Syriana, etc, because she was denied an on-the-record quote by Jeff Robinov. And that kind of makes you complicit in her destructive behavior.
    Thirdly, you are still obviously dancing. I have never attacked Nikki for the numbers themselves. I attack her for bending the facts into something inaccurate and not acknowledging their source.
    It’s the same old Tom O’Neil game of “my gurus tell me…” Honest journalists acknowledge their sources on things like this where there is no reason at all for secrecy

  13. IOIOIOI says:

    How about Apatow is the White Tyler Perry? Seems a bit more logical to me and funnier :)!

  14. Joe Leydon says:

    Dvaid: I have no desire to school you because, trust me, if you were in my classroom, I’d be constantly taking points off your compositions because of spelling and syntax errors. And I am not saying Nikki is right to dis George Clooney or anyone else. (Typically, an attempt by you to distract from the matter at hand — and, actually, not one of your better efforts in that area. How pathetic.) I don’t care where she gets her info, I don’t care where Klady gets his. Frankly, I don’t care if she consults a Quija board while he talks to every exhibitor in North America. All I care is: Who’s right? And, in the long run, who’s right most often? That’s all that matters here. Both sites claim to provide a service. I want to know, as a consumer, which site provides the better service (i.e., accurate b.o. estimates). That’s all. Please spare me your postuing and pontificating. I’m not impressed at all. In fact, I’ll give you a C-.
    So, again, I ask: If she’s right and he’s wrong, who’s the savvier observer this week?

  15. Josh Massey says:

    Dane Cook is the white Tyler Perry.

  16. Joe Leydon says:

    Meanwhile, I’ll give myself a B for misspelling POSTURING.

  17. Joe Leydon says:

    Make that a B-. Got Ouija wrong as well.

  18. Noah says:

    But Joe, how will we ever really know who is right when it comes to these numbers unless we audit the studio? I think this desire to figure out who’s really number 2 or number 3 or whether a movie made 11.2 or 11.5 really should mean nothing to anybody except the people who are affected by those numbers; namely, the studios and the filmmakers behind those movies. I think from the differing numbers, we can pretty much come up with an idea of what the numbers are and then figure out if the movie is a success or a failure at the box office. At 11.5 or 11.2, the movie will either still lose money or still make money.
    So, let’s ease up here and give each other hugs.

  19. Joe Leydon says:

    OK, but no kisses on the lips. Or at least no tongues.

  20. David Poland says:

    Joe… sometimes you are just plain dumb.
    No one is a “savvier observer THIS WEEK” ever. Get it?
    Forget about the fact that Finke is not observing or analyzing, but simply taking notes. You are being so willfully obtuse, that her limitations are well besides the point.
    Your question must be rhetorical, since there can only be one answer about whether the person who has been writing about and analyzing box office for decades is more “savvy” than the one being fed info from one source with no research, knowledge or interest for a year or two. There is a lot of really mediocre box office reporting out there that actually does the heavy lifting. Sometimes, I think Len’s observations are dead wrong. But they are always better informed, by her intent and actions, than NF’s. It’s not a complex issue.
    If you don’t care where information comes from or why or how or what the subtext is, you are a sheep.
    And as I have said too many times, the choice people make to rationalize things enough to attach the idea of truth and insight to the work they like from people they know to be dishonest in other work in the same forum is stunning. This is how things get worse… no accountability, unless it is convenient. Inconsistent standards – fully aware that there will be slips from all of us – are not standards at all.

  21. doug r says:

    Aww, c’mon, hugs.

  22. Chicago48 says:

    What the hell happened to Eastern Promsies? What happened to Talk to Me?…two of the best movies of the year and they are buried never to be found by anyone…my opin: too much product out there, too much glut…and the movies out there aren’t THAT GOOD. They’re mediocre. Better stuff on TV and cable.
    I don’t understand the marketing of Eastern Promises — straight to video? Wow! Viggo is such an international star, amazing!

  23. David Poland says:

    And ironically, Len’s real chart also has The Game Plan at #2…

  24. Noah says:

    What’s really weird about this box office thing is that it’s become a race to see who can be right FIRST. I remember ten years ago, being so excited to get USA Today on Monday to find out which movies were hits. Now we know by Saturday morning.

  25. David Poland says:

    So much so that both trades now report on Saturday morning…

  26. Joe Leydon says:

    “Sometimes, I think Len’s observations are dead wrong. But they are always better informed, by her intent and actions, than NF’s. It’s not a complex issue.”
    Like I say, I wouldn’t want to teach you. I think you mean HIS intent and actions…

  27. David Poland says:

    And how savvy is this (from Drudge), Joe?

  28. David Poland says:

    Uh, no, Joey… I meant Nikki to be the object of that sentence. It is her intent and action not to look beyond what she is told.
    But thank you for reminding us again that you are only interested in fucking with me and that I am, indeed, wasting my time by taking you seriously in any way. But do enjoy your second round of puberty.

  29. Joe Leydon says:

    David: Seriously, sport, go back and read that sentence. If you’re trying to say Klady’s observations are better informed than NF’s, than the placement of “intent and actions” should…. Ah,never mind. You really can’t teach those who think they know it all.
    And by the way: For someone who tries to position himself so loftily, you always seem to be the one who resorts to juvenile insults first. What a terribly insecure person who must be.
    And why do I get the feeling that, somewhere, JeffMcM is reading this and laughing his head off at both of us?

  30. IOIOIOI says:

    Giving someone the bad mouth at his own blog. When you have your own blog. Where you could bad-mouth him as much as possible. Decorum, man. DECORUM!

  31. jeffmcm says:

    Joe, nothing that anybody says here is a surprise to me anymore (correction: T. Holly being coherent on the other thread.)

  32. jeffmcm says:

    Oh, and I think we know each other well enough by now that you can call me Jeff. Failing that, “Eli Roth-loving moron”.

  33. Joe Leydon says:

    How about ERLM for short?

  34. About Mark Wahlberg, he’d probably become a bigger star internationally if he didn’t make very American-central flicks. Nobody outside of the US cares about flicks like Invincible (American football, blegh), Four Brothers (the urban curse) or Rock Star (umm…) and then his other movies are only moderate hits like Shooter ($45mil domestic and international). He needs to be the lead in a Perfect Storm sized hit or a good-quality Planet of the Apes blockbuster NOW that he’s actually got good will.
    And on Nicole Kidman, the thing with her flops (the small ones like Fur or The Human Stain and such) is that barely anyone outside of movie circles actually even knows they exist so it’s not she has this reputation for being in these sort of movies. But she is in danger of getting the reputation for being in movies like Bewitched.
    I would say though that Moulin Rouge! was definitely sold on Nicole. Remember this was 2001 post divorce and she was on everyone sympathy list. After The Golden Compass though she has Australia and The Reader, which should be be an interesting double and she’ll surely be another 2001 situation again with two big lead roles gunning for awards.
    I’m still fascinated by those numbers for Jane Austen Book Club. What happened there?

  35. Aris P says:

    What’s fascinating is how anyone can keep up with all these movies. What exactly is Jane Austen Book Club? I haven’t even heard of it. Nor Jlo’s movie.
    And, while we’re at it, who the hell is Tyler Perry, why does he have a movie out every 6 months, who is he to have his NAME above every film, why is he so popular (i’m assuming he is), and where did he come from? I bet you i would have to walk from Westwood to Redondo Beach to find one person who tells me “oh, well, Tyler Perry — I have to see THAT film now. Can’t miss the bi-monthly Tyler Perry extravaganza!!”

  36. IOIOIOI says:

    Tyler Perry is representive of the power of the African-American community when it comes to people they like and supporting people that they like. Especially folks who live in the South. The Jane Austen Book Club is some movie with Emily Blunt that was supposed to propel her into the spotlight. Sadly it got limited release, followed by a wide-release, but no one ever cared. Finally; J-Lo had some dance movie that she produced with barely any pub, that sort of faltered. Yeah… they release a lot of movies… this is why there’s IMDB: FOR INFORMATION ON MOVIES THAT YOU KNOW NOTHING ABOUT!

  37. Joe Leydon says:

    Have to say it: Whenever someone asks “Who is Tyler Perry?” — I have to respond, “OK, you must be white, and you must be in either LA or NY, right?” Now, mind you, this is coming from a guy who, if I were any more white, I’d be freakin’ translucent. But — and I’m sorry if this gets your shorts in a bunch, David — you have to remember that there is life (and thriving culture) in Flyover Country, sport.

  38. Aris P says:

    Yes I’m white and live in LA. So do I have to live in some deep urban area and be black to know about this guy? Am I at fault for not knowing about him? Why isn’t he on my radar? Lots of other black comedians are. And I don’t know where Flyover Country is either, friendo.

  39. ManWithNoName says:

    It’s not difficult to find out who Tyler Perry is. He has plenty of press (not as much as others, but there is stuff out there). When I don’t know who someone is, or who isn’t on my “radar,” I usually do a little research. I’m guessing he’s not on your radar because you are white, live in LA, and probably don’t care about a movie involving four black couples and their relationships (not saying this is a good or bad thing, it just is what it is). Suffice it to say, Tyler Perry is infinitely more successful than most of us, and was that way well before his first movie came out.
    You’re wrong about NY. Whenever a Medea play came to the Beacon Theater on the Upper West Side, the crowds came out. It was great to see so many people dressed up, going out for a night at the theater. Maybe I’m the exception, but I definitely know who he is.

  40. Joe Leydon says:

    Man: Then I owe you an apology. All I can say in my defense is,I evidently knew more about Tyler than most folks.

  41. IOIOIOI says:

    Aris; this country has a lot of underground pop-culture going on. You have a thrieving latino pop-culture in this country that gets very little mainstream press. While there’s still parts of African-American culture — like Tyler Perry — that get plenty of attention in mainstream outlets, make substantial bank, but remain rather anonymous to a great part of their own culture or everyone else. It’s a big ass country. This is bound to happen from time to time.

  42. jeffmcm says:

    I don’t understand why LA-dwellers are considered to be ignorant of African-American culture, since there are billboards for the movie all over the place here. Joe’s much-defended ‘flyover country’ is more White than New York City (37% non-Hispanic White) or Los Angeles (29.7%).

  43. Hejla says:

    Dave, I

  44. Spacesheik says:

    Clooney and Kidman are overexposed, all over the gossip rags.
    Did anyone think CLAYTON would be a massive hit? Especially with that title? It was always meant as an adult drama, and I think its doing well. Anyone who thinks Clooney can open movies is seriously deluded, he’s a handsome, charming man, but he never was box office.
    However, his forte relies on serious political flicks as la GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK – the ones he shepherds via his prod. company to the screen. They don’t make much dough but are brilliant films – that will probably be Clooney’s legacy…as an efficient, activist director/producer in the Stanley Kramer mould.
    I am looking forward to seeing CLAYTON, heard Tom Wilkinson was brilliant as well in that.

  45. Very minor correction about Tyler Perry, David. True, this is his first movie out of drag to open to more than $20 million, but it also is his first movie out of drag, period. He wrote and directed Daddy’s Little Girl, and had his name above the title, but he didn’t appear in it. He doesn’t have to wear a dress to make coin — just show his face.

    And, hey, I see that Box Office Mojo just put up a Tyler Perry page. Like you, I also noticed its absence yesterday.

  46. movieman says:

    The soft openings for “MC” and “WOTN” can probably be attributed to the fact that they cannibalized each other’s audiences. Both would have done better in a less crowded playing field–but what wouldn’t these days??
    No surprise re: “Elizabeth”‘s paltry numbers, though.
    It needed great reviews which it surely (and deservedly) didn’t get. Its Oscar chances died after the first press/industry screening in Toronto.
    Sad to see that “JJ” is fading away before it even hits 300 screens. It’s “The New World” all over again, sob.
    I’m glad to see that Branagh’s reductionist, gratuitous “Sleuth” stiffed in limited release, and pleased to note the continued strength of “Across the Universe.”
    Whatever the Taymor movie does in theatrical will be gravy compared to the eventual DVD sales.
    “ATU” is destined to become a cult flick for the ages!

  47. movieman says:

    …and the $20-million-plus bow for Tyler Perry’s latest was a mild surprise after the tepid opening of the equally Madea-less “Daddy’s Little Girls” in February.
    Could it be the Janet Jackson Factor, LOL?

  48. Hejla says:

    Sorry about the name mistake. I meant David of course. I don’t know why I wrote Dave.

  49. jeffmcm says:

    ATU will be a cult flick for middle-school kids for a few years, then drop into deserved obscurity.

  50. cobhome says:

    I do think the perception of Clooney as big H’Wood star is a bit of smoke and mirrors – his tabloid coverage distorts the reality of his situation – big dif between selling magazines to the fan girls and filling seats in a theater.
    That said – why do we continue to perseverate on opening weekend box office?? Is it not true that international box office contributes greatly to a films overall financial success? Is it also not true that revenues from DVD and cable make a major contribution to a films financial success? Is it also not true that films that do not look great on opening weekend can still have long term good financial performance?? I suspect the first Elozabeth did very well in dvd – and I bet the second one will do well there too. So how can we use BO as a way to continue to say that woman in a lead can’t carry a film ??? Will we revisit the financial performance of The Golden Age in two years and see that it did a ton of money in dvd and cable and other non-US markets and say – whoops – seems like female leads can make money??

  51. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Movieman said what few will admit: There is a glut of serious stuff for older audiences this fall. Variety hinted at that in its Monday-morning roundup.
    That Nicole Kidman cycle Mr. Poland refers to runs Oscar Bait/arthouse, summer movie/arthouse, Oscar Bait/arthouse, summer movie/arthouse, summer movie/arthouse. “Birth” opened in New Jersey megaplexes day-and-date with Manhattan.

  52. David Poland says:

    Hejla – I am not claiming that Clooney is a massive worldwide star. But the Ocean’s movies do count… not as much as him alone, but they count.
    As I keep saying, they are different situations. Every one of them has its own unique analysis. And each studio has its own perspective.
    I wouldn’t be anxious to hang an $80 million movie around Clooney’s mug alone either.
    If you want to know how I rank them, you can go back to my Top Stars list from April. Neither one is in my Top 10 or my top 21 and when they are ranked, Kidman is ranked higher than Clooney, her at #24 and he at #37.
    After another Ocean’s and an $10.3 million opening for Michael Clayton and the mess of The Invasion (notice how Daniel Craig’s name is almost never mentioned on that one), they’d be a bit closer as he moves up a little and she moves down a little… but still, probably in that order.
    But kicking the star of a much cheaper movie that will have legs for opening at within $1 million of #2 in a stupidly competitive weekend for adult films vs a $15 million payday in an $80 million-plus movie that grossed less than $25 million worldwide is absolutely unfair… no?

  53. David Poland says:

    No one I know is saying that women CAN’T make money at the movies, cobhome. There are examples every year.
    This is the horror show of GossiPorn… wild exagerations become public conversation, but they are so unrealistic from their inception that the conversation becomes convoluted and often grotesque.
    But Elizabeth 2 will surely do well in DVD, but not enough to make a “ton of money.” If they have good fortune, it will get them to break even, as the P&A alone will not likely get paid back by the theatrical run worldwide, much less the cost of production.

  54. movieman says:

    “ATU”‘s leggy performance proves that there’s a strong–and growing–fanbase for Julie Taymor’s irresistible hybrid of “Moulin Rouge” and “Hair.” And I don’t believe that its middle-school kids who are comprising its chief demographic. Routinely disenfranchised Broadway babies (check out the b.o. returns on “Hairspray” and “Dreamgirls”) and Baby Boomers grooving on the all-Beatles-all-the-time soundtrack are turning it into a well-deserved w.o.m. (minor) cult phenom. And yes, the same people who are going back to see it a second, third (and more) time will shell out the bucks for the eventual dvd(s). Hence, a future cult movie for the ages.
    The dirty little secret of the movie business right now–and one that nobody in the corridors of Hollywood would dare acknowledge–is that there are simply too many movies being made, and released, to feed the ever-ravenous ancillary markets.
    I hate to sound like a prophet of doom, but maybe next year’s anticipated strike will (temporarily) put the brakes on some of this madness.
    With anywhere from four-six (and upwards of eight) major studio pictures going into wide release every weekend (and twelve-fifteen new titles debuting in the major markets), it’s almost impossible for anything but the most obnoxiously marketed tentpoles (“Bee Movie” anyone??) to make their presence felt in any significant way. That’s why so many seeming “slam-dunks” are underperforming these days.
    Is this any way to run a business???

  55. jeffmcm says:

    No, the problem isn’t ‘too many movies’, the problem is that the budgets are too high so they can’t make their money back.

  56. IOIOIOI says:

    No… they are putting too many movies out in these last four months. September had 45, October has 46 (!), November has like 36 or so, and I believe December has 24. That’s a lot of product glut in 4 months. If they spread this stuff out more. If they gave it time to breathe. Maybe… just maybe… some of these films would not plotz like they have.

  57. jeffmcm says:

    Oh well right _now_ there are too many movies, because they’re all chasing awards and there were months earlier this year when nothing good was out. But that’s a scheduling problem.

  58. Joe Leydon says:

    Across the Universe is a contemporary classic, and the people who are dissing it now will look awfully foolish 10 or 20 years from now. But you know what? Who cares? Those of us who love it now, love it. Those who don’t? Hey, go look at something else.

  59. jeffmcm says:

    Joe, I am prepared to own my disdain for Across the Universe in 2027. I’ll give it credit for the “I Wanna Hold Your Hand” sequence and a couple of others but its flaws are well-catalogued by people who are better writers than I.

  60. The Carpetmuncher says:

    ACROSS THE UNIVERSE is a contemporary classic? Maybe if you’re still stuck living in 1969.
    Sorry Joe, but your corny meter needs some serious repair.

  61. “But kicking the star of a much cheaper movie that will have legs for opening at within $1 million of #2 in a stupidly competitive weekend for adult films vs a $15 million payday in an $80 million-plus movie that grossed less than $25 million worldwide is absolutely unfair… no?”
    If you check out Box Office Mojo you will find that it clearly states that The Invasion has made $25,107,349 at the global box office.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon