Friday Estimates by Klady – 4/19
Well… the good news for Judd Apatow is that Forgetting Sarah Marshall will gross more in its opening week than Walk Hard did in its entire run. The bad news is that aside from that one film, it is his worst opening as a producer since The Cable Guy.
Truth is, seems to me, that people are still ready to buy the Apatow franchises… but without a familiar name in the lead(s) or a clear idea (Universal did a good job of simplifying the film’s narrative for the advertising campaign), the potential for misses increases each time out.
With Klady’s $1.6 million split, the odds are less… but with the thinner separation in some people’s Friday numbers, there is a chance that FSM will pass The Forbidden Kingdom by Sunday night because of a stronger Saturday night market for the romantic comedy vs the notoriously first-nighting action/martial arts crowds. On the other hand, if families decide Forbidden Kingdom is a safe bet for matinees, teh spread will be greater the other way.
The Forbidden Kingdom opening is on the high end of the Jet Li films and looks like it will beat The One to be his best ever start… of course, Jackie Chan ain’t cicken feed. Still, this will be by far is biggest chop socky opening in this country, never having cracked a $10m opening without a pairing gimmick (The Tuxedo is on the borderline, but DreamWorks sold that as a family comedy and teamed him strongly with Love.)
This opening also happens to double what Lionsgate mustered for their first Jet Li effort, War. But even more importantly, it will be the company’s third best non-Saw, non-Tyler Perry opening ever, behind only Fahrenheit 9/11 and the first Hostel…. and Hostel‘s $19.6 million is well in shooting range.
I must admit, I didn’t see this coming for this film… but I am pleased for all involved.
88 Minutes is opening below even the lowest expectations… which goes to show ‘ya that even the best marketing machine can plop out a dud when expectations are so low… aka The MGM Syndrome (pre-new- regime).
And it’s hard to read the tea leaves on Where In The World Is Osama bin Laden?. A $1200 or so per-screen for opening weekend isn’t a disaster. But it isn’t very good under the weight of expectations. Morgan Spurlock clearly carries enough goodwill to get this kind of start, but the per-screen average for Super Size Me didn’t dip this low until weekend 5 with twice as many screens. And the SSM opening weekend cracked $500k on just 42 screens.
The door on theatrical for docs has been closing, slowing lately after a swift shut, leaving only a crack open, after last summer. Between this and Young @ Heart, we could see an even tight squeeze to come…
*The Visitor (Overture Films) – $33,000 – $1,833 PTA – $145,000 cume
*Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) – $28,000 – $848 PTA – $108,000 cume
Dang, dang, dang. I was really hoping that The Visitor and Y@H would fare better in their limited expansions. The both deserve better fates.
I really thought I would hate Y@H, but it wins you over, especially during the climatic concert scene at the end. Gotta admit though, it’s a very tough sell, even for Searchlight. People enjoy it once they see it, but you can’t get any traction from WOM if no one goes to see it these first few weekends.
Umm, “Drillbit Taylor”, which Apatow produced, grossed probably half what “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” will do its opening weekend. So FSM is FAR from his worst opening as producer, much less his “worst” since “The Cable Guy”.
“but without a familiar name in the lead(s) or a clear idea”
SUPERBAD had neither.
“Superbad” had an idea in its campaign: guys trying to get liquor so they can get laid. I’ll say in comparison to that film and “Knocked Up”, “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” doesn’t have a clear idea other than a set-up: a guy gets dumped, heads to Hawaii where the ex and her new beau is just happen to be. The spots seemed to highlight his humiliation since there isn’t any thrust beyond the set-up. It’s a funny flick but its a movie about a guy getting his bearings, which is a vague concept to sell.
HOO-AHH!!!
When it comes to opening movies… you can’t be…. BRAAAAAAAAANDON LAAAAAAANG.
You gotta open more like…. JOHN AAAAAAAAANTHONY.
If Big Al had brought along “THE MILLION DOLLAR MAN WITH THE BILLION DOLLAR PLAN,” this thing would’ve tripled that.
I’m seeing it tomorrow, so be wary of actual spoilers… but I’m just curious how a seemingly straightforward, Nick of Time-looking potboiler can be as awful and unpleasant as the reviews on RT suggest. The ads suggest nothing more offensive or awful than, say, The Juror, or some bad prime-time procedural, but the reviews seem extra hostile, as though there’s something ugly or beyond-the-call about 88 Mins. It just looks like a clunky suspenser by a journeyman director on the surface.
Yes, Superbad had a strong, clear target… which you were not a part of, Cad. Sorry.
They targetted teens and their lives today and it took… just as Knocked Up targetted the over 30s who are involved with marriage and pregnancy.
Perhaps you could articulate what you mean by “a clear idea.”
Very amusing trailer for “88 Minues” director Jon Avnet’s next certain-to-be-turd, “Righetous Killer.”
Love how they put a Rolling Stones song into the sound mix, probably trying to confuse people into thinking that it’s a Scorsese film (DeNiro; the Stones; gotta be Marty, right?)
I’m still trying to figure out why Pacino agreed to re-up with Avnet after “88.” Obviously it was the lure of reteaming with DeNiro again (their first pairing since “Heat”), but geez, Al; show a little class!
While I know that “Fool’s Gold” is considered to be something of a b.o. disappointment (although I still insist that it’s less painful to sit through than “How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days”), how did Kate Hudson drop so quickly from the “A MINUS” to the “C” list?
Hudson’s upcoming “My Best Friend’s Girl” looks positively dreadful, and forcing her to emote oppositve “C MINUS” (or is that “D PLUS”?) listers like Jason Biggs and Dane Cook just makes me sad. Was “Almost Famous” really that long ago???? The fact that it’s a Lions Gate (the home of classy romcoms like “Good Luck Chuck”) release only increases the potential ick factor.
Oh yeah, I almost forgot: it’s directed by Howard Deutch, too. (Deutch hasn’t made a good movie since “Some Kind of Wonderful.”)
I did like the trailer for the new Neil LaBute movie which gives off uber-cool “Unlawful Entry” vibes.
Sam Jackson looks like he’s actually trying to give a performance again instead of just phoning in the badass attitude. It was a tad deflating, however, to see that it breezed through the MPAA with a “PG-13” rating. That can’t be a good thing, could it?
agreed, the new Labute looks very good, and even though it’s in the vein of a late 80s early 90s thriller I think Jackson might have a shot at supporting actor nom. Definitely seemed like an R though, I hope they didn’t trim for the lower rating.
What about EXPELLED making the top ten? This is the right wing, anti-Darwinism documentary by Ben Stein, that managed to make more than both YOUNG @ HEART and Spurlock’s doc.
Is an ad blurb from Rush Limbaugh that influential?
“Forgetting Sarah Marshall” sounds pretty straightforward to me. The guy gets dumped, he goes on vacation to get over her, only to see her at the same resort with some other dude. Yeah, I guess that’s really hard for the average moviegoer to grasp. I have a feeling this one is going to have legs.
Anyway, FSM is probably going to have the second highest opening weekend gross for an April R-comedy, after Life, which opened at $20m, with stars.
“Life” was a damn good film, and possibly the only time Martin Lawrence impressed me as an actor.
I miss Ted Demme.
A case could be made that Ted D’s ouevre (while it lasted) was more impressive than his Uncle Jonathan’s post-“Lambs” ouevre.
Expelled making the top ten is super depressing.
Jeff; you know there are people out there who want to see a film discussing this topic. Yes, it’s ridiculous that people want to deny a fact, but it’s there right. No matter how silly it may seem.
It’s not a clear idea that the FSM marketing was missing, it was a gimmick. Knocked Up had the unexpected pregnancy, Superbad had McLovin, 40-Year-Old Virgin had a 40 Year Old Virgin. These things were unique and worked well for marketing, FSM’s plot doesn’t have anything like that and there’s no McLovin’ in the campaign, so it didn’t do as well. It’ll probably have legs though.
It has hot chicks with nice cans! What more does a movie need to advertise? What? That does not reach 4 QUAD appeal? Balls. I guess we can shut that down. SHUT IT DOWN. What? I can’t shut it down? Well shit… I am in an awkward position with this post. What do you want from me? Really? Forgetting Sarah Marshall was aimed at everyone in the demographic that has had a bad break-up. That’s the hook. Apparently most people failed to see that’s the hook, but the film may catch on in the coming weeks. Here’s hopin.
Keep in mind Superbad, besides having that young adult “American Pie” appeal, did feature Seth Rogen off a pretty big hit.
Jason Segal is not only not a draw, but he’s actually pretty obscure–I bet more people think Neil Patrick Harris is the star of the show than he is. (David Spade syndrome)
If you have watched HIMYM for three season. You would realize there’s no one star of the show. It’s an ensemble in the truest sense of the word. Hell. Neil Patrick Harris would not get half the laughs without his co-stars. That’s how that show works. They are the Voltron of Sitcom Ensembles. Nevertheless, I am still down with Segel over Rogen any day of the week.
Movieman, I still reckon The Ref is one of the funniest movies I’ve ever seen.
I went and saw Prom Night last night. From the opening minute I knew it was bad, but I couldn’t stop from laughing through the entire thing. It is a comedy. The best part of it was that by the 20-30 minute mark everyone else in the cinema (about 70 or so people) were laughing along with me and my mate. It was like a communal thing to openly laugh at and mock this movie. Utterly absurd, really. Why does everyone walk backwards? Because every time they did it they crashed into something (a lamp, a table, a bed, etc).
The lady sitting next to me had a great call, and if you’ve seen the movie then I hope you get a laugh out of it – “Why is everything in that god damn closet?!”
“It’s not a clear idea that the FSM marketing was missing, it was a gimmick.”
I have to say that I hated the ad campaign for Walk Hard, and thought FSM was even worse. The Apatow films clearly have a thematic link to their campaigns – stunned loser(s) looking into camera with semi-retarded looks on their faces – but the FSM poster was shite. The actor seems to have the personality of shite with crap on top(enjoy your day in the sun, kid)and the cheesy day-glo crayon like scrawls of the type face screamed wait for DVD.
I actually thought it was one of the more obnoxious ad campaigns I’d seen recently…especially after I had recently seen The Heartbreak Kid and could barely register a plot difference.
This film reminded me of the flick Career Opportunities. That sub-tier John Hughes film that cam out at his peak but was quite a dud and had a leading man that really went nowhere while the actres in the lead went on to greater things.
I expect FSM will be a DVD caked in thick dust at the back of a convenience store in about 5 years.
This wasn’t going to open “big” because of the release date. End of story.
Im still trying to process the comment that Superbad had “a story” and somehow dealt with teenagers lives.
Really? Most teenagers that were in the theater when i saw Superbad were too busy sending text messages and making calls on their phones to pay attention to the movie on the screen.
I’m a huge fan of “The Ref,” Kamikaze. It’s one of my top-10-ever Christmas movies.
And “Beautiful Girls,” “Blow” and “Life” are all a helluva lot more enjoyable than “Beloved,” “The Truth About Charlie,” “The Agronimist,” et al.
Anghus, I don’t think the teenage text-messaging and cellphone gabbing you witnessed at “Superbad” was an isolated incident.
I see it all the time (with teens and adults), regardless of the movie. You would have thought that “Superbad” might have at least gotten their attention long enough to put down their damn phones, tho.
IOIOetc,
“They are the Voltron of Sitcom Ensembles.”
Great line.
anghus:
“Most teenagers that were in the theater when i saw Superbad were too busy sending text messages and making calls on their phones to pay attention to the movie on the screen.”
I’m not saying that you’re lying, but judging from the amount of money that was made from repeat viewings in theaters and then dvd sales, your experience at Superbad was clearly not the norm.
you know it’s funny Ju-osh. Theatrical releases have been joked about being ‘marketing for the dvd’.
Maybe that’s true. Maybe the kids go to theater and catch a few catchphrases and recite a few scenes and then buy the DVD and actually watch the movie.
My favorite Ted Demme movie:
http://www.movingpictureshow.com/archives/mpsMonumentAve.htm
“88 Minutes” doing poorly? US release was delayed over a year — never a good sign. Pic is already out on DVD overseas.
Yes, the Rush Limbaugh pullquote drew people to “Expelled”. Surprisingly the NY Post and NY Daily News are not running the ads for that pic.
Really, Joe??
And here I was thinking that “Monument Avenue” would be the film somebody would use to shoot holes through my whole Demme vs. Demme theory.
Nicol: you have no idea about PACKAGING. If you did. You would realize that we are looking at a APATOW BOXSET one day. It most likely will cease being sold on it’s own in a year or two.
Nevertheless; having to shift through your Canuck Conservatism is one thing. INSULTING FUCKING CAREER OPPORTUNITIES IS ANOTHER! Shameful. Absolutely shameful. If the starletts become more successful. It’s because Segel went behind the camera. Seriously though… hating on Career Opportunities and being a Canuck Conservatives? This really seems like a great sitcom career in the making.
“This wasn’t going to open “big” because of the release date. End of story.”
What? A movie can’t open to $30 million because it’s April? Since when?
SUPERBAD’s key art was a couple of teenage boys standing there looking like they’d just been struck with a blunt object. The title made it sound like a follow-up to UNDERCOVER BROTHER. The trailer looked like a more expensive version of all those intolerable Cannon films of the ’80s about a bunch of virgins trying to get laid before they go off to college. Yes, I’m outside the target demo, but none of that spelled $125 million-plus to me. Besides, truly great filmmaking transcends demos: you will find few greater fans of VERONICA MARS and GILMORE GIRLS than this middle-aged male, and they were “just” TV shows.
“What? A movie can’t open to $30 million because it’s April? Since when?”
Did I say “any movie?” Afraid not. If you’d cared to read what I said earlier in this thread, you’d see that the highest opening for an R rated comedy in April was $20m.
I tend to agree SUPERBAD didn’t really have a gimmick per se … it managed to develop some very strong pre-release word of mouth, however, because Columbia screened the everliving shit out of it … sometimes more than six times in certain markets. That’s got to contribute something … to my knowledge, Universal only did one or two pre-screenings per market for FORGETTING SARAH MARSHALL. Just sayin’.
^^^ that’s a very good point
“INSULTING FUCKING CAREER OPPORTUNITIES IS ANOTHER! Shameful. Absolutely shameful.”
Career Opportunites is one scene. The scene with a doe eyed Jennifer Connelly on a rocking horse in a really tight white tank top. That’s the movie. It made her a star and Whalley (an actor I like) couldn’t hold his own.
Hey, I love that scene. It was pivotal to my teen years. I think I even slow mowed the VHS a few times. But there was not enought of it in the movie. I felt cheap afterwords. Like I had been used.
Superbad has “McLovin”. Enough said.
“how did Kate Hudson drop so quickly from the “A MINUS” to the “C” list?”
Gravity maybe?
Pre-Almost Famous:Gossip, About Adam, 200 Cigarettes,Desert Blue
Post-Almost Famous: Dr. T and the Women, The Four Feathers, How To Lose a Guy in 10 Days, Alex & Emma, Le Divorce, Raising Helen…
Take away Almost Famous, and it’s DRAINING to read her IMDb listing.
Now Nicol is trying to show he’s a real person, and not an evil conservative Canuck cyborg. Whose hell-bent on a fiscal conservative economy, tax cuts for the rich, and all of this other conservative gibbidy-gook that most of the Western world goofs on us for even participating in. Let alone believing and voting for in our elections.
Well I will not stand for it. I will not stand for a conservative Canuck cyborg slamming a fine bit of early 90s Hughes. Come on! It features eyebrows that need to be tweased, ridiculous prices on home-entertainment equipment, and more musical montages than ROCKY IV! THAT MY CCC FRIEND… IS ENTERTAINMENT!
More like “CONFUSING” not “ENTERTAINING”.
What the hell are you on about?
EIEIO,
No, entertainment is envisioning you on the farm with all of your other little animal friends. Which character were you in Babe, by the way?
Nicol; you are a fucking conservative… IN CANADA! Do people openly mock you when you talk? Or do they try to treat you like the kid who wears a helmet? Seriously… you do not have the verbage or the grammatical skill to step into this forum. Do not play.
Camel… it’s called being silly. If you read the posts between myself and the Canadian Conservative Cyborg, then you will know it comes down to Career Opportunities.
EIEIO,
Really. Do you think typing in caps is intimidating?
Didn’t that technique go out when people over 12 started to use the internet?
I think you’re wanted back at the ranch. It’s milking time.