Klady's Weekend Estimates – Pre Tax '08
The number that really struck me this morning was for La Misma Luna/Under The Same Moon, which has quietly grossed over $10 million now and should settle in to the box office neighborhood of Y Tu Mama Tambien and Volver.
For some reason, The Weinstein Co, which was a partner in the buy of the film, keeps getting credit for releasing the film… but the film is, in fact, being released by Fox Searchlight domestically. This is a rare foreign language release for the studio, having got their collective hand slammed in the money door three times in 2003 with Lucia, Lucia, L’Auberge Espagnole, and The Dancer Upstairs, which collectively earned $5.5 million… not to mention the Night Watch/Day Watch combo, a record-breaker in Russia and good for less than $2m domestically.
So congratulations are in order for Searchlight.
The news is not quite as cheerful with Young @ Heart, the studio’s first doc release under Peter Rice.
There were only three $1 million-plus docs last year, including Sicko… the other two did $1.4m and $1.1m. And there were only four more that did over $500,000. The Oscar winner, Taxi to The Darkside? Under $250k.
This year, you might include the Stones concert film as a doc…but really, should we? Is the Vince Vaughn comedy tour really a doc? Because no other docs this year have hit $250k.
Young @ Heart may pass that number. So is that a hit? Or a miss?
Tough sledding.
Checked out “The Visitor” last night at the Arclight and the 8:15 was almost sold out. Good movie, really great performances, surprisingly affecting, albeit teeny-tiny character story that covers a lot of ground without ever getting wider in scope than from where it started.
If it gets out to a few more markets, I think it’ll find a receptive audience.
David: Care to revise that final gross estimate for 21? Maybe $70 million?
Any idea what the budgeting is on Street Kings. I know this movie is probably shite, but I want David Ayer to get more work and I don’t really know if this is a win or a lose. Seems pretty so-so.
Love the way the spreadsheet apparently assumed “Young @ Heart” was an email address!
I don’t recall what I estimated, Joe.
Clearly, it will be over $70m. More like $75m.
The movie still sucks, though.
Er, David… Just last week, you wrote: “And congrats to 21, for selling what looks to end up being about $60 million worth of tickets domestically for something that is not Shinola.”
If it did $11 million this weekend to bring it to 62, and it’s holding really well, won’t it get to the mid-80s or so?
No movies this weekend for me. I did something much more expensive. I went to games 1 and 2 of the Flyers-Caps series. You can go to a lot of flicks for those prices, even in Manhattan.
“The Dancer Upstairs” isn’t a foreign-language movie; at least 85% dialogue in this movie are English.
Fox Searculight said that they were happy with the box office result of “L’Auberge Espagnole”.
Anyway, Congratulations to Fox on the box office success of La Misma Luna/Under The Same Moon.
I thought a few weeks back when Under the Same Moon debuted (in the top 10, btw) that it was one of those niche films that would disappear as quickly as it appeared (as if from nowhere). So, yeah, well done to all involved for getting $10mil+ out of it.
What exactly was the Weinstein’s part in it all?
I’m also surprised that Shutter has gotten to $25mil. I’m sure it’ll make a small profit.
My thanks to DP. After the non-stop 21 bashing, I went in today with low expectations. Loved the first hour, could stand the rest, a tolerable movie. It’s very clear why it’s doing so well.
I hope Ayer gets a lot of work, just not the directing kind. He doesn’t have an eye and he can’t cast for shit. Loved Training Day though. Back to the pen…
PROM NIGHT.
Could you be a bit more specific, Lex?
I had fun at my girlfriend’s prom…
…last year.
But the movie was OK, too, I guess. Though Schaech’s aging-male-model version of Robbie Benson in a baseball cap isn’t exactly as menacing as Jason or Michael. That dude OWNED Doom Generation, though.
And the ending was a total bummer. In general, Snow seemed awfully chipper for someone who’d gone through such tragedy.
And Idris Elba might be the awesomest thing ever on THE WIRE, but here was doing like a bad Carl Lumbly imitation.
Kip Niven (Magnum Force) OWNS New Year’s Evil. They should do that one next.
Nails on a chalkboard.
“Young @ Heart” opened NYC/LA exclusive. The release pattern screams Arthouse Ghetto as megaplexes will be tied up with comic book movies, TV-based pics and franchises come May.
Kami: Weinstein Co. is doing a half-assed job for “Under the Same Moon”. In South Jersey it’s playing the Loews Cherry Hill (mainstream megaplex) but not the Ritz Plaza (arty megaplex).
Umm, Chuck! I don’t even live in America so how the hell would/should/could I know about cinemas in freakin’ South Jersey? And I’m not the only one who mentioned how they thought Under the Same Moon was doing well. And Dave said The Weinsteins weren’t distributing. So… there ya go.
So LexG is, what? 19? If he’s taking his girlfriend to the prom then he can’t be much older. Do they have proms in their final year of high school or what? They also have junior proms, right? Don’t tell me a steady diet of American teen flicks have tought me wrong of your country!
Box Office Mojo and Variety both list “Under the Same Moon” as a Weinstein Co. release.
South Jersey is part of a top-5 TV market (Philadelphia). The Ritz Plaza gets to play arty pix before or after North Jersey depending on the film.