Weekend Estimates by Klady – May 26
So… after protecting Indy, it turns out he didn’t need much protection after all.
Len has it estimated at $149 million, BO Mojo and Fantasy Moguls at $151m. Regardless, it is the #5 first five days domestically ever. It might also be the fifth $150m+ 5-day ever. It’s a bigger opening than any Harry Potter or any Rings film.
My personal take is that the #2 Memorial Day Weekend thing is pretty irrelevant. The significance of that kind of landmark really varies from year to year. What doesn’t vary – in spite of the adjusted gross and ticket price folks – is money. Money is money is money. There is no realistic comparison between movie grosses and ticket sales in the mid-sixties and earlier with the seventies and then we see another big leap in the mid-90s. The top opening before 2000 is 1999’s Star Wars – Episode One, which is all the way down at #20 now. But Indy follows in the footsteps of the four years before, as the top five openings of all time are now one per year, 2004-2008, three in May, one in June and one in July.
The question of how the film is being perceived, outside of our media and geek bubble, is still mostly unknown. I am not a big fan of the film, but as I recall, there was even great rage in our bubble about Episode One… and that went on to four times opening, which doesn’t prove that the film is any good, but does prove that word-of-mouth in the real world was very good, at least.
After these numbers, most of the boo birds will back off… but not Nikki Finke, who continues to push the negativity. Knowing, as we do, that Nikki writes what Nikki is fed, one has to wonder whose agenda is it to diminish this obvious success? My guess has shifted away from another studio and right back to people inside Paramount who are about to lose Mr Spielberg again… particularly based on the new spin, which is that business is good, but Spielberg wasn’t really trying.
As I always say… it takes a lot of hard work to make even a crappy movie. And in this case, love it or hate it, S/L/F took a lot of time to decide on a story and a script before making this film. Yes, they might all have been delaying, in part, until it was most advantageous to go ahead and make the movie. But the idea that this was not an effort is simply foolish.
Meanwhile, the worldwide number is over $300 million for this weekend. This means that Paramount will have their expenses on the film covered by the middle of next weekend and Spielberg/Lucas/Ford will start taking home 48 cents of every dollar grossed by the film (45 cents to the theaters and 7 cents to Paramount).
There’s not a lot more to talk about… the Caspian bloodbath being covered and mourned.
Apparently, the chart ran out of room for Indy’s digits…
As I always say… it takes a lot of hard work to make even a crappy movie.
Well, Ford certainly showed up, but I’d stop short of saying either Spielberg or Lucas worked hard on this one for more than a day or two. They have the best teams on the planet working for them, and both were possibly at their greatest degrees of comfort during shooting.
According to Variety, Paramount is distributor only on “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”(Paramount is releasing this film for George Lucas
Correction for the last sentence for my previous post:
So it is not reasonable that Paramount will only get 7 cents of every dollar grossed by the film. (not 48 cents)
Sorry… The sentence should be ” it is [reasonable]…….” (not “….[not reasonable]….”)
I’m so so so sorry for the careless mistake I made. I’ll be much more careful in the next time.
You might consider the “Caspian bloodbath” not worth discussing, but I, for one, am positively gobsmacked by its lack of success.
Marychan, if you go back further you’ll find that deal DP is referring to. Once Indy crosses $400M and Paramount’s expenses are covered, S/L/F own the profits.
Marychan: it happens and you demonstrate why this blog should have an EDIT feature. Wrecktum: I agree that it’s rather interesting that a supposed franchise for DISNEY has crumbled so badly at the box office. This leaves me to wonder what in the hell is going to happen with the Dawn Trader?
mutinyco: I know, but it looks the the LA Times article has some mistakes. Based on Variety’s articles, “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” should be financed by Lucasfilm, so Paramount’s expenses would only be P&A.
Like what they are doing with “Iron Man”, Paramount are making makes easy money on “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” . (not [huge] money, but [easy] money).
IOIOIOI: Thank you a lot.
But I also has my own fault. I will be more careful in next time.
By the way, I’m curious about how will Disney save Narnia 3 (since they have no way to stop produce this film right now)
it’s ‘treader’ not ‘trader’….frankly, i’ll be surprised if this whole series gets made (unless they lump and condense the remaining titles into one feature)….just a thought…
And meanwhile, “What Happens In Vegas” rolls right along making too much money and ushering in the apocalypse faster than all of the Christians For Israel groups combined.
Well, for starters, they could move Dawn Treader to December, and from there, they should keep the budget below, say, $150 mil (maybe less) for the rest of them. I doubt they’ll green light a fourth one before box office receipts come in on Dawn Treader.
honestly, the Caspian thing is all about selling a weak brand in the middle of a strong season. i can’t believe no one else saw it coming. Even with Speed Racer being the bomb that it is, the film got sandwiched between Iron Man and Indiana Jones 4.
Who wanted that spot? That spot has eaten two films, Speed Racer and Prince Caspian.
Fucking devoured them like two pieces of overcooked pork. I’m not sure who in their right minds would pick that spot. I realize these decisions are made by people who supposedly have more sense, but im wondering why you’d rush a film like this to the box office, leaving the holiday slot that is so lucrative to the series.
I mean shit. I realize that Harry Potter 6 has the holiday slot locked up this year, but by releasing the 2nd film at the wrong time, they’ve put the entire franchise in jeapordy.
Just ask yourself this. If you were an exec at Disney, and someone said “I’m thinking of putting Caspian just after Iron Man and just before Indiana Jones 4′, wouldn’t you have raised your hand and gone “ummmm…. why don’t we hold off til Christmas 09”.
Oh, and for those claiming great things for Hancock, things are kind of odd. The trailer received jeers and boos at the Indy screening i went to, and i’ve heard a few theater worker friends of mine saying that there’s a lot of ‘this looks like dogshit’ coming from the audience. I was more interested in the pic when it was marketed as a comedy. The last trailer not only ruins the whole end of the flick for those paying enough attention, but makes it look like an over the top action flick.
I’m beginning to wonder if Hancock is going to be a one pump chump.
this may sound naive but i think disney could feel a sense of obligation to finish the series in some form (be it much lower budgets or consolidation)…..
and, yeah, that move to december couldn’t hurt…..
RIP Victor Ziegler…
Life goes on. It always does. Until it doesn’t…
Also RIP Sydney Pollack, today, 73.
Thank you, Aris. Ever see Eyes Wide Shut?…
So Caspian makes the same as Horton domestically and say $300 million total with overseas. Then there’s dvd. They will make a profit, they’ve got the sets and the CG, they should be able to make a third picture for break-even, especially if they stick to Christmas this time.
I think the real story here is how well Iron Man continues to hold on. EW .. I know, a stupid source … ran a story about this, and this is what they said.
Dr. Jones may need to really crack the whip if he’s going to avoid some trouble on his latest box-office adventure. For one thing, Crystal Skull brought in $101 mil over the standard three-day weekend (a total that could decrease once final numbers arrive on Tuesday). Sure, that’s the No. 10 bow of all time, but it’s almost identical to Iron Man’s premiere ($98.6 mil) a few weeks ago. I mean, Iron Man and Indy 4 faring the same? Who’dathunk? Moreover, who would have imagined that filmgoers (and let’s be honest, most fans of these films are men) were going to like Iron Man better? Because that certainly seems to be the case: Robert Downey Jr’s superhero movie has hung on strong since its mammoth early-May opening thanks in part to great buzz, as evidenced by the CinemaScore grade of A that it earned from ticket buyers. So what was Indiana Jones 4’s CinemaScore mark? Just a B. That’s very discouraging, and it means that the film could have some trouble sprouting legs long enough to make it the automatic $350 mil-plus smash that many anticipated it would be.
Yeah you’re welcome, mutinyco. Sorry i missed your post. I’ve seen it many times. Silly of me to not place that very obvious character name with Pollack.
The Capsian problem, in my opinion, was that it banked on its second-weekend being stronger due to the holiday and by being the second choice of moviegoers who were sold out on Indy 4 or had already seen Indiana Jones by the time Friday or Saturday came along. Now, had Indy performed like a Star Wars or Matrix sequel, that would have been ok. The fans and geeks would have seen Indy by Thursday or Friday and would have needed a new movie to see later in the weekend.
What Disney didn’t count on was that Indiana Jones was an old fashioned hit, not a hardcore front loader like usual these days. Since film goers were patient and saw Indy when it was convenient for them over the long weekend, they didn’t need a second choice and thus Caspian never had a chance.
And yes, the Entertainment Weekly article is the epitome of stupid. Indy 4 beat Iron Man’s three day despite having a whole $25 million Thursday behind it and a $25 million Monday in front of it. Point being, Indiana Jones didn’t under perform, Iron Man merely over performed and good for both of them. Even if Crystal Skull collapses and ends up with only a 2x final gross, that’s still $300 million (2.5x – which was Lost World’s figure – would be $375 million). As for its second weekend, it’ll probably be pretty healthy as I imagine ‘non-geek’ word of mouth of adults and kids will be just fine (it’s deeply flawed, but it’s far more fun than I was expecting) and it’ll probably be the movie of choice for mothers dropping their kids and husbands off while they go see Sex And The City. On that note, younger girls who don’t have a parent or guardian will likely buy a ticket to Indy 4 and sneak into Sex And The City (although, if they could buy their fake tickets for Speed Racer instead, that would be great).
Word of mouth on Indy 4 is hurting. Everyone I’ve talked to spoke of leaving the theater feeling empty. And most of its online defenders seem to be looking at their feet when they tell you they liked it.
A friend said that action movies are all about erections, and that this one was made by three guys who take Viagra. That’s a little harsh. I thought the first two acts were just fine. Like the opening shot suggests, viewers are better served turning their expectation mountain into a molehill.
And really, if the scene with the monkeys doesn’t put a big smile on your face, you probably don’t like movies much to begin with.
All your theories on the Narnia release date are swell, but remember: Narnia was initially dated for release a December 2007 release, but bumped back to 5/16 way back in May of ’06.
Indy 4 wasn’t put on the release schedule until Feb. ’07. Could Disney have moved the film again? Possibly…..but remember, the film had already moved once and their ’08 summer slate was set. What could they have done?
“Word of mouth on Indy 4 is hurting. Everyone I’ve talked to spoke of leaving the theater feeling empty.”
I don’t know about word of mouth, but I cop to the emptiness feeling. I wouldn’t call it a bad movie, but strictly as an Indiana Jones film, and probably the final one, that isn’t enough. Especially not with the talents involved. This one felt like it was handed over to journeymen filmmakers, not the originators.
And unless that fridge was lined in lead FLUBBER, Superman himself would’ve been keeling over sideways getting out. That made Iron Man’s first crash landing in the sand dune look like the second coming of Forest Gump’s feather.
Maybe they’ll stop making the Narnia movies then. That’ll satisfy me.
That $40mil-$60mil range is pretty popular lately with movies like Vegas, Baby Mama, Made of Honour, Sarah Marshall, Nim’s Island and Forbidden Kingdom.
Oh, and I meant to say this before: You Americans and you’re crazy cinema antics. WHO ARE YOU CLAPPING?! It’s not like the man who made the trailer is there waiting for your approval.
imdb lists The Silver Chair with a tentative release date of 2011. It’s worth noting that the Pevensies children are not featured in this story. Of the Narnia books, I only liked The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe. I couldn’t bring myself to finish The Silver Chair or The Last Battle.
“And really, if the scene with the monkeys doesn’t put a big smile on your face, you probably don’t like movies much to begin with.”
Lolwut? That scene was the Jar-Jar Binks of Indy. I’m sure the six-year-olds in the audience thought it knee-slappingly amusing, but everyone above that age was groaning and covering their face at the awfulness of it. Single most hated scene in any movie in recent memory for my group of movie-going friends.
Postponing Prince Caspian to December ’08 would have made more sense, since it did just fine against the November Potter release in ’05, and could have done fine this year against the November Potter.
However, they simply wanted to try the summer waters, and Angels & Demons was slated for December before the strike. Oh well. I really only liked the fifth book anyways.
Matro, twenty years ago Sean Connery chasing birds with an umbrella to kill the airplane had me rolling my eyes. Today I think it’s the most exhilarating scene in the movie.
In twenty years those monkeys will be your favorite thing in the film. Just you wait.
Seriously. In Temple of Doom, Indy jumps out of an airplane just before it crashes into a mountain, uses an inflatable raft as a parachute, proceeds to slide down the mountain in the raft, then rides through wild rapids until he reaches calm water. That’s realistic. But driving up a tree, then falling off 3 consecutive waterfalls is absurd?…
Marychan… looking into this… I don’t think Variety is right, but I will find out before too late tomorrow what they are talking about. I can’t find any story in which they explain this… just a repeated use of that phrase.
The direct answer to your question is that 12.5% without funding would make this the worst deal Lucas or Spielberg has ever done with a studio for distribution-only of a film they paid for. So again… iffy.
“But driving up a tree, then falling off 3 consecutive waterfalls is absurd?…”
Not in a world where a Maytag is enough to save you from a nuclear explosion at ground zero that launches your 65-year-old keyster a couple of miles through the air before pounding down in the desert floor (so is Hancock Indiana Jones’ OTHER son??).
Screw airbags – lets start lining cars in lead. Maybe our troops should be armoring their humvees with discarded refrigerator doors. You gotta remove them for the kids’ sake already anyway.
Crow, I could be wrong, but I have a feeling I’ll think Scrubs is funny before I’ll be amused by CGI monkeys. Or Jar-Jar Binks.
I thought the CGI animals in Indy IV looked terrific.
I think it’s too soon to knock out Prince Caspian! This should be a film with long legs, with possible repeat viewings by families, and it hasn’t even opened yet in most overseas markets! Of course, I’m stating this without having seen it yet (dunno when it hits Spain, ugh!).
And I don’t see how Dawn Treader could be cheaper to make… it’s almost all on water!
Tofu, I’m curious, which is the 5th Narnia book for you? Dawn Treader or The Horse and His Boy? The first if you’ve got them in “Narnia” chronology, the latter if in the order they were written…
As far as I’m concerned, the first three were the best (Lion, Caspian and Dawn Treader), the Horse and his Boy was just good old plain fun, the others were a bit of a let down (Magician’s Nephew and Final Battle too blatantly religious metaphor, Silver Chair just a bit… missing in interesting characters). Basically the Penvensie children are the best in the lot, and once they’re gone the books aren’t as interesting.
So I’d be content if they just ended the films with Dawn Treader. Although watching the “end of the world” in Final Battle and reuniting old characters would be interesting…
I’m curious to see what they’ve done with Reapicheap! ;o)
“but everyone above that age was groaning and covering their face at the awfulness of it.”
melodramatic much?
Three things that really hurt Caspian:
1. The smart artistic but poor commercial decision to embrace the fact that the second book is much darker and more violent than the first. Almost every review mentioned that it’s darker and more violent, and not terribly kid-suitable. (Other decisions, like the padded length, the ridiculous quasi-martial arts Miraz/Peter duel, and the Caspian/Susan flirtation, are questionable as well.)
2. Georgie Henley (Lucy) had her adorableness drop down, and her wonder, which was so crucial to the first film, doesn’t work here.
3. The religious themes which were a key driver for attendance at LWW are far smaller in the books up till Magician’s Nephew and Last Battle, when they become completely overbearing. Aslan doesn’t even show up till the final 15 minutes.
I am amazed on how Indy is getting a pass from most reviewers. After the initial enjoyment of seeing Indy for the first fifteen minutes or so…..there is just so much good will for this character and franchise…My thoughts quickly faded….This is not a good movie…a few good scenes do not make a great flick. I feel sorry for the kids out there that think this is a true Indy film…It is not…It is a few set pieces(some so CGI..I was wondering if Pixar was involved) searching for the stories…The ending got more than a few groans at my screening.
After a few days of being disappointed…I would beg Lucas/Spielberg not to do anything else with the Indy franchise…Based on the flick, Mutt is not strong enough to spin off….and just let Indy rest. Though not great films, the Prequels had their joys….Even episode one which gets lambasted…has it’s joys…on recent viewings I have fond even Jar-Jar less annoying…Though Jake Lloyd’s acting is still pretty bad…
If Lucas/Spielberg want to know how to return to a franchise after a long break take a look at Rocky Balboa….I am not saying that it is a Great Film…But Stallone remembered the reason we love these films is that the audience feels a strong connection with the CHARACTERS…I know that Rocky still fighting is silly, but it was a great bookend to the series…
I think that Lucas/Spielberg forgot it was the character of Indiana Jones looking for the lost ark, searching for stones, and finding the cup of Christ was the reasons we love the films and not some silly aliens and a spaceship…
I was at best buy and saw that the young indy sets are all $90 each. Seriously? for edited versions that don’t even have my favorite parts (the old indy bookends) Are these selling well at all? because they seem wildly overpriced to me. Most season sets are 30-40$ and they’ve split a season (or was it two?) into three 90$ sets, good grief. Thank goodness there’s netflix.
Kamikaze: Not really, no. My work paid for tickets and let everyone take off for a few hours on Friday as they were setting up new servers on our intranet. The ensuing listserv discussion was pretty spirited. Some people (around half) liked the movie, but the monkey/vine-swinging was the acknowledged facepalm.jpg moment of the film, even for the film’s defenders.
It doesn’t help that the moment is the meat in the unexplained “We’re chasing the Russian lady/Now she’s chasing us” sandwich.
Temple of Doom had that “roller coster” mine-car chase, Crusade had the birds causing the plane to crash moment, not to mention Adolf Hitler’s Autograph scene.
There’s always been silliness in the Indiana Jones movies. Part of it’s light-hearted nature is one reason for it’s wide fan base. I’ll agree with the masses, there’s one too many in Crystal Skull.
I actually liked it more the second time. Was just enjoying the ride. The thing that most disappointed me was the score.
It’s a fun movie. I enjoyed my time in the theater. Sure, I was hoping for more and didn’t get it. But I was grinning.
But stop with the “Phoning in” comments. I thought the opening car drag moments were more exhilerating and better shot than anything in Transformers.
The Prince Caspian thing is confusing to me–more so for my own reaction–I liked the first one. I thought I’d be interested in seeing the second one. But when I saw the billboard and the trailer–nothing could get me to go. I didn’t think the movie looked bad, I just had no interest whatsoever. An informal poll of a group of friends and even my 13 year old nephew, their target audience, felt the same way. No interest whatsoever. And we don’t know why.
If I had go guess….the first movie was sold as a fantasy. I liked the kids and Narnia and the Blanchett snow witch…but the poster has a guy pointing an arrow…making it look like less of a fantasy film, more action or battle. Which is my least favorite part of the Narnia film.
I saw the Iron Man trailer on TV continually. Didn’t see that many Caspian commercials. So all my friends just went to see Iron Man again that weekend.
The Indy film–also a big disappointment for everyone in our group (about 10-15 guys). One fell asleep. It felt like work just to get through. Every beat was predictable. The alien storyline just seemed weird–from a different Speilberg movie. We barely got through it once–but none of us want to see it a second time.
MattM, you’ve just listed excellent reasons in my book to go see Prince Caspian! ;o) Now, if only it would release over here!
Dave, Caspian is still a fantasy, but yes it has more “action” to it due to the battles and such. Much of the magic in the story is precisely the characters trying to”reawaken” the magic. Dawntreader will be less so (action) as it will once again be exploring the unknown (even for Narnians).
And I hope to all that’s sacred they don’t film The Magician’s Nephew… that one’s just… ugh! rather dull… way to blatantly metaphorical-religious!
crazycris, I speak of A Horse and His Boy. It really stands alone from the other books, is very funny throughout, and as you said, just plain fun. And yes, Silver Chair was painfully boring in comparison.
Untold story from the first weekend of Indiana Jones 4: Excess hype + release during a recession = shows not sold out, especially on Saturday night.
Expect a lot of theaters to hold over “Made of Honor” in memory of Sydney Pollack. (He played Tom Bailey’s father.)
Really? Do exhibitors even know who Pollack was, much less care?
And it’s hard to say that there were too many ‘shows not sold out’ given the numbers that have come in.
Since Mr. Know-It-All doesn’t know when to STFU leave it to me to set the record straight.
I was at an AMC megaplex where Indiana Jones 4 was in the 4 largest halls. If any shows were sold out — especially for Indiana Jones 4 — the showtime board at the box office would have flashed “Sold Out”. There were no sellouts when I went into “Made of Honor” and there were no sellouts when I left.
I don’t go to screening rooms, I don’t act like a Film Snob and I don’t shoot my mouth off like a Rush Limbaugh wannabe.
The third is incorrect and in general you don’t make sense.
Shows of Indy 4 were sold out from 4:00pm and on Saturday in many metro areas.
But hey, let’s just ignore that it was a five day weekend and blather on all the same.
In my metro area….none of the Saturday night shows were sold out…for Indy 4. The last time I had difficulty seeing a big release opening weekend was when I had to wait for the 10pm showing of Pirates 2 when the 9:15 was sold out.
Indy 4 was about half full for my Saturday night showing…I just think that it is screen satuation
“Expect a lot of theaters to hold over “Made of Honor” in memory of Sydney Pollack. (He played Tom Bailey’s father.)” or they could give over the screen they had it on to Sex and the City, which will take away all the potential audience. Really, maybe if it were Patrick Dempsey who died, but who is really gonna go see Made of freakin’ Honour because Sydney Pollack is in it? Was he even in any of the marketing?
Matro, not denying you and your friends thought it was silly, but I don’t believe you all (and everyone else, as you say) started to groan and plant their face in their palms. Nope. Sorry.
I always get a laugh out of people claiming critics give certain movies a pass. Maybe, and this is a radical though I know, but just maybe they actually liked the movie. Not everybody has the exact same opinion as each other. Shocking, but true.
I’m inclined to believe there is a level of group-think among critics. David’s good about pointing out such instances from time to time.
Well, most critics aren’t really ‘critics’, they write plot synopses with a little of the press notes tossed in and a thumbs up/down score. So groupthink is more likely than not.
Of course, it’s only a problem with they disagree.