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David Poland

By David Poland

More On Weekend Box Office

Mojo is back to its normal, high quality service, so I can crunch a few numbers.
If you want to know why other studios are bitching about WB

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41 Responses to “More On Weekend Box Office”

  1. Tofu says:

    Theaters are absolutely packed today. From a personal anecdote (a terrible method, I know), I remember my Spider-Man 3 Sunday viewing being a bit sparse, and the $151 actual to be a bit… Too clean, as mentioned here. Still, both have the sellouts to at least make the numbers look perfectly legitimate. I caught Batman brought up at a water park today by passerby’s all over the place today. Spider-Man finally has a proper rival.

  2. doug r says:

    Yeah, Friday night sellouts could boost Saturday numbers. Fahrenheit 9/11 and The Simpsons Movie showed a similar higher weekend than Friday night.

  3. Roman says:

    ” And if you had told Universal that they could have a $25 million start for Mamma Mia!, the same would be true. ”
    No David, here I have to strongly disagree with you. Most people saw a $25+ million opening on paper let alone a week ago.
    If anything, the success of Sex and the City virtually guaranteed an echo of some sort and “Mamma Mia” was the perfect candidate.
    This isn’t just some poser (in the way that “The Women” is a poser) this is the real deal.
    You keep pretending like this movie appeared out of nowehere, while in reality it is an established billion dollar phenomenon (for what it’s worth, I’ve seen and I though it was terrible). You gotta face the reality here bud.

  4. Roman says:

    “You keep pretending like this movie appeared out of nowehere, while in reality it is an established billion dollar phenomenon (for what it’s worth, I’ve seen and I though it was terrible).”
    I was talking about the musical the movie is based on, of course.
    Also one look at that movie’s international numbers should confirm my point.

  5. chris says:

    Again: Gay men and middle-aged women go to the movies.

  6. I’m kinda glad that the numbers are so much in doubt, as now I can relax and wait for tomorrow before I write up the weekend ‘story’ on my site For the one or two of you that care, I was out of town all weekend (took my wife to Vegas for her birthday) so I missed the brutal Dark Knight critical talk backs this weekend, although I did notice that I was name-checked in a slightly libelous fashion.
    Rarely have I been so glad to miss the mark on box office prediction. For what it’s worth, when I posted my predictions on Wednesday night, I first decided to be optimistic and wrote a rant on why it would beat the record. Then, only changing a few words here and there, I completely changed my mind and chose to be ‘realistic’ (I blame DP and his persuasive note about previous ‘record breakers’ for online ticket sales). The number I went with? $125 million. The number I went with in draft one – $155 million.
    I used to be better at this. But then marriage and kids does that to you. Although to be fair, I’ve always under-estimated Batman pictures on opening weekend, because I’m such a fan of the character that I never trusted my own heavily biased ‘hopes’.

  7. IOIOIOI says:

    Okay Mendelson… hope you had fun in Vegas but I need a Joker/BUS HIJACKIN explanation. If you feel like giving it to me. It would be appreciated. So which bus take over bothered you?

  8. waterbucket says:

    Oh wow, the nerds have gotten Dark Knight onto the #1 spot over at Imdb.

  9. IOIOIOI says:

    The nerds? Yeah… you know… masterpieces are like falling off the truck everyday. It’s earned it’s spot. DEAL!

  10. It didn’t… after I remarked about that scene last week or so, someone (maybe you?) immediately explained what had actually happened and I thanked them for the explanation. It was a little detail that must have brushed past me in the overpowering IMAX screen (sat a little too close, I admit).

  11. IOIOIOI says:

    Well I take back all of those libelous remarks Scott. Sorry if I flew off the handle.

  12. sloanish says:

    I don’t think everyone got riled up because they were trying to defend Batman. I think they got riled up due to the ho-hum tone around a huge critical and commercial success. Dark Knight isn’t the best movie ever, but it could be the best movie that cost more than 100 million dollars to make. Constantly throwing water on the fire was annoying.

  13. jasonbruen says:

    I agree sloan. You could also say it is one of the best movies of the year. Though so far. We all know that even though TDK could be Top 5 now, given Hollywood’s movie cycle with the award hungary pictures coming at the end of the year, TDK could end up being only Top 20.
    That’s one reason why I think it is all the rage. If TDK came out in November, people would still talk about how awesome it is and probably the best comic book/big budget movie of the year. But the discussions would occur during a time when other critically raved movies will (hopefully) have been released. Then there probably wouldn’t be the award talk. But that’s ok. As the summer goes along, TDK talk will focus on comic book masterpiece and earnings.

  14. waterbucket says:

    IOIOIOI, nerd said what?

  15. Joe Leydon says:

    This just in: Variety reports that Dark Knight actually made more than original estimates indicated: $158.3 million. Cowabunga.

  16. bluelouboyle says:

    Yikes. I have a feeling that ‘X-Files 2’ is going to get crushed by Dark Knight’s second weekend. Word is mixed.
    By the way, Dark Knight is huge in the UK too. The Waterloo IMAX is sold out until at least mid-August. I booked last Friday but could not get tickets before the 12th. Unless I wanted to go at 2:30 or 5:30 AM !!!
    Although that IMAX serves the whole of south East England 25 million people. but still….

  17. Scott: The number I went with publicly (what’s this draft one crap?): $153 million. You are what’s in print bud. 😉
    Not to be that guy or anything. I suck at box office.

  18. EthanG says:

    Update: WB has released the final number (before certification at the end of the week) as $158.3 million. Wow.

  19. EthanG says:

    One other note: I live in Northern VA which Im well aware is not a normal market by any definition….but I thought Id point out my local IMAX in exurban Chantilly is running TDK three times a day…and has sold out their first 17 shows and counting, currently running all the way until Wednesday at 11pm Every 8pm showing has been sold out all the way through NEXT sunday. Impressive.

  20. I agree, and I should have been optimistic (or at least published both drafts in the same article). I was just stating that I still wasn’t sure where the movie was going to land even at the very end. On one hand, I’m a hardcore Batman junkie and I desperately wanted to see the franchise reclaim its former box office crowns. On the other hand, because of that, I was hesitant to come out and predict that, even when the winds changed over the last five weeks. As I said, in the realm of box office bingo, I’ve never been happier to be wrong.
    As for X-Files, it only cost $35 million so even a meager $15 million opening will be just fine (poor, poor Hellboy II – I wish it had happened to a lesser film). As it is, the show still has a solid fan base so $25 million wouldn’t surprise me (I’ll likely be there on Friday morning before work). Two points though – when is the last time a major sequel cost almost 1/2 less than the original? And, if the budget was only $35 million, why didn’t Fox let them go for an R rating? An R-rated X-Files film would have attracted interest beyond the fans that a PG-13 one will not.

  21. repeatfather says:

    I was a huge X-Phile when I was in high school, and still consider a few episodes (Jose Chung’s From Outer Space and the freak show episode) to be among the best hours of episodic television ever produced.
    However, if I am going to see a non-art house movie this weekend, I will be seeing The Dark Knight a second time, not I Want To Believe.
    If we’re ranking this summer’s marketing campaigns, I’d say The X-Files has to be at the bottom. The trailers have not tried to sell the plot or concept at all; it seems like they’re implying we should just go see the movie simply because Mulder and Scully “are back.” Big whoop.
    How this movie will appeal to anyone beyond the X-File die-hards is beyond me. And, in my estimation, there’ll be a big overlap of the The Dark Knight second-timers (or even first-timers who wanted to wait till the hullabaloo was over)and the potential X-File viewers..

  22. Jose Chung’s From Outer Space is probably my all-time favorite episode. It’s weird, it was such a good drama, yet my favorite episode is an out and out spoof of the formula (Bad Blood is fantastic as a spoof of their monster episodes too).
    Yeah, I’m not sure if I’m gonna like the movie (I wasn’t as big of a fan of the ‘M & S get stranded in a remote location’ episodes as others were), but The X-Files was really good far more than it was bad. It’ll be worth $6.00 to enjoy some nostalgia (as boring as the preview was, I still got a goofy grin on my face when I heard that trademark whistle at the end).

  23. Tofu says:

    The first five seasons were easily the best productions Fox has ever produced. Then the boring as bread movie came out, and nothing was the same ever since. Pass.

  24. Hopscotch says:

    Pass indeed. I’m over it, though I’ll contend the first few seasons of that show is pretty impressive.
    Next weekend has also Step Brothers.
    AND. Did you see Hellboy II’s drop? 71%!! Good grief.

  25. christian says:

    The only episode of the X FILES I ever saw was Jose Chung — and only for Charles Nelson Reilly. Good stuff RIP.

  26. repeatfather says:

    I forgot to mention “Clyde Buckman’s Final Repose” with Peter Boyle as the morose psychic as one of the great X-Files episodes.
    I agree, Tofu, that the first movie was the beginning of the end – when the mythology turned into an inscrutable quagmire.
    I know some former X-File fans who didn’t even know there was another movie coming out until a couple weeks ago.

  27. Actually, I rather enjoyed seasons 6 and 7. I didn’t care for the movie (it felt like a dumbed-down version of the show), but the seasons that followed were an intentional attempt to dial back the overblown ‘adventure’ elements and towards smaller-scale character driven spook stories.
    The mythology wrap-up in season 6 was compelling and the finale to the sister abduction story in season 7 was surprisingly moving. And the stand-alone episodes were, in general, as good as they ever were in the early seasons (in season 7, I love the episode told from the cannibalistic mutant monster’s point of view, and the genie episode).
    Yes, many of the classics were in the first four seasons, but there was lots of incredibly good stuff in seasons 6 and 7 (season 8 wasn’t too bad either, but the last two seasons are by far the weakest).

  28. doug r says:

    The first five seasons were easily the best productions Fox has ever produced. Then the boring as bread movie came out, and nothing was the same ever since. Pass.
    Posted by: Tofu
    The X-Files was shot around Vancouver, BC for the first 5 seasons. For season 6 they moved to California.
    The new movie is shot in BC… 🙂

  29. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Memo for bluelou: “The Dark Knight” isn’t on release in Blighty until Friday.
    EthanG: NoVA is part of the D.C. metro, so your IMAX is the only one around the Beltway with “The Dark Knight”.

  30. LexG says:

    You are either pulling an awesome shtick or you should be counting cards in Vegas, plus I hear your driving skills are excellent.
    Wackest motherfucker on this blog. By far.

  31. IOIOIOI says:

    Waterbucket: nerd? Me? Nah.

  32. IOIOIOI says:

    Lex: if there’s a moment, then I will state something. Until then, I am keeping it close to the vest.

  33. EthanG says:

    Chucky: This is true. Still, 29 consecutive sellouts all the way until next Sunday is unprecedented. Calling the theatre, they couldn’t recall more than a few shows being sold out in a row, much less 29. This is an IMAX that has shown Pirates, Spiderman, 300, Harry Potter and more.

  34. ployp says:

    My favorite X-Files episodes are Triangle and Monday. The worst one has to be Space.
    I’m rewatching the show in anticipation of the new film. Sadly, it won’t be here until September… I envy those in the US.

  35. leahnz says:

    i’m re-watching from the beginning too, ployp! how far have you gotten? i’ve only seen episodes 1-4 so far cuz i’m really busy, i’m so lame. i’d forgotten how young and pretty david and gillian were at the beginning, so fresh faced and sweet on each other.
    my son wanted to watch with me but he got creeped out on i think it was ep. 3 titled ‘squeeze’, the stretchy serial killer guy with the orange eyes reignited his fear of the dark, and created a new fear of air ducts to boot. maybe i should just go the whole hog and play ‘alien’ for him, create a full on airductophobia

  36. jeffmcm says:

    Just show him the parts in Aliens where everyone escapes through the ducts, to give both sides of the coin – they can be your friends too.

  37. leahnz says:

    and i’ll play one of those subliminal tapes while he sleeps that repeats over and over in a soothing voice, ‘air ducts are your friends…air ducts are your friends…’
    but seriously, over the school hols he had a bunch of his friends for a sleepover and i let them watch ‘aliens’ (w/parental permission of course), and he just LOVED it (like mother like son). he loved ‘newt’, they were all so worried she was going to die, it was so sweet…i’ll have to remind him about those ‘good’ air ducts! tho the aliens did come hunting down the last survivors in the ducts…man, you just can’t win with air ducts

  38. ployp says:

    Here’s the thing with me and the X-Files, Leah. I didn’t and still don’t have all nine seasons of the show. I found Seasons 4-7 first. Then came Season 2, 3, 8. I finally got the very first season when I visited Singapore three weeks ago!! I’m still looking for the last season.
    So, I had to begin my rewatching with seasons 4 to 7. I was in the middle of season 2 when I bought season 1. I just watched ‘Fire’ – 1.11 – yesterday and will probably watch a few more episodes tonight.
    What’s your favorite episode?

  39. leahnz says:

    ployp, all that 4-7, 2,3,8 stuff made me laugh!
    to be honest, i’m not sure about my fave episode; i watched the entire series when it first aired on tv (tho i sort of lost the plot when whatshisface from t2 was on it, i’m not sure i ever recovered fully after that) and i’ve never revisited it on dvd, so it’s all going to unfold to me anew, if i can ever get around to actually putting in the time to watch it! (i’m renting the dvds from my local rental establishment and going great guns as you can see, all the way to episode 4! :p only a hundred or so left to go :o) )

  40. My favourite episodes were when they were simply solving mysteries week to week. The ones I remember most are the eps where that one town uses humans in voodoo cannibal soup or whatever, the one with the teenage witches (a giant snake swallowing a teacher is involved) and one about a kid who can set stuff on fire with his mind.
    …I also loved the game on Playstation.
    Alas, I haven’t seen a single trailer at the cinema or commercial on TV. Very strange.

  41. leahnz says:

    i’ve seen the preview a couple times now (billy connolly’s in it of all people!), it looks pretty cool, i’ll go for old times sake. mulder and scully feel like old friends.
    i do hope they manage to wrap things up a bit, it’s been a long, hard road for spooky and dana, who had better finally dip into that lovin’ spoonful! those two have been hot for each other from day one, it’s high time they made some spooky science geek babies and lived happily ever after, i say.

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4