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David Poland

By David Poland

Sunday Estimates by Klady


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33 Responses to “Sunday Estimates by Klady”

  1. Tofu says:

    By these estimates, The Dark Knight is now the highest Domestic grosser of the year, topping Indiana Jones & Iron-Man in only ten days of release.

  2. chris says:

    Actually, isn’t “Iron Man” still number two? (Although “Raiders” is about to pass it)

  3. Blackcloud says:

    I guess I wasn’t so far off when I said XF2 would be the biggest flop of the summer. It’s still an exaggeration, but not nearly as much as it was a couple of weeks ago when I made the statement. It’s like that Serenity movie all over again, and that show was never popular.

  4. Tofu says:

    Serenity was surprisingly entertaining. X-Files 2 had “Total Bore” written all over the previews.
    And yes, Iron-Man is still ahead of Indiana Jones 4. It is becoming a very tight race between the two.

  5. The Pope says:

    At the moemnt, IronMan is $1.3m ahead of Indy. I can’t operate a slide rule and calculators are far too practical but Indy is taking in about twice as much as IronMan (500 to 200+) and so I reckon it may be just a matter of time. Come Labor Day though, it will be just academic.

  6. The Pope says:

    BTW, on another note entirely, I read in THR that Ridley Scott’s new movie, Nottingham has been put on “indefinite” hold by Universal. I can’t say that I am too disappointed. According to imdb (and they are always sooo reliable), his next picture is Blood Meridian… something I would much prefer to see than another Russelll with a sword movie.

  7. EthanG says:

    Top grossing Superhero Movies all time (adjusted for inflation):
    1. Spider-Man
    2. Batman
    3. Spider-Man 2
    4. Superman (original)
    5. Spider-Man 3
    6. Iron Man
    7. The Dark Knight
    How high can it go?

  8. Blackcloud says:

    It’ll be academic by Thursday, probably. They’ll both be several tens of millions behind TDK by then.

  9. Joe Straat says:

    Considering its relatively low cost for a summer film, I don’t think it should be a candidate for biggest flop. A flop for sure, but not in the way Speed Racer was financially. Also, having seen the movie, there really was nothing they could’ve put in the trailer that would’ve hooked the viewer in.
    What I think Chris Carter was trying to do is settle some things with the Scully and Mulder characters and the main story was more of a secondary concern (Which makes the movie constantly beg the question of “So what?”). It’s a slapdash of mystery/suspense cliches with an X-Files twist and there are silly scenes like when they duck into a building of completely indistinguishable purpose that only exists to have empty elevator shafts to fall from and pointy objects to fall on.
    But in the scenes that focus on Mulder and Scully as characters work. It’s not subtle thanks to a constant repetition of dialogue, but it creates a bridge between Mulder’s fanatic and Scully’s skeptic to where if it’s truly the end of the X-Files (And, judging by the BO, it is), it’s a somewhat suitable for the characters. The shot they have at the credits is almost comforting. Not saying the movie is an underappreciated gem or even that it’s very good, but there’s more to it than the people who completely thrash it would have you….. um, believe…

  10. mutinyco says:

    Indy won a long time ago. It wasn’t even close.
    Indy: $761M
    Iron: $567M

  11. Tofu says:

    Can’t wait to see if The Dark Knight and Quantum of Solace will be able to duke it out with Indy worldwide. Like some kind of epic revenge for 1989. One thing is for certain now, and that is that Harry Potter will be the worldwide #1 of the year by at least $150 million, if not $200 million.

  12. the keoki says:

    wow! down 52% is amazing for such a huge first number. if you just go with the fact that TDK is ahead of POTC2 by 57 mil at this point and tack that on to POTC2’s end number….TDK comes out at 480. Still low i think. I saw it for the second time on friday and thought it played better on a repat viewing. it has flaws but Nolan’s giant vision is what’s fantastic. i don’t understand people who complain that it was too long. i never felt it bog down and you got to feel like it was a real town with real problems. the lenghth made it feel much more real. but i could be completely off base. it finishes somewhere north of 500. simple math.

  13. It will be quite weird if that comes to pass, with Dark Knight being number 01 domestically but possibly number 3 worldwide (behind Potter 6 and Indy 4). I know the domestic winner doesn’t always win globally, but has there ever been a year where the ‘won by a mile’ domestic champ comes in third or fourth internationally? It’ll be interesting to see how Potter 6 does as I seem to like the book more than others. Still, I can’t wait to watch the movie with people who don’t read the books, as this story contains the biggest jaw dropping ‘Holy crap!’ moment of the entire series.
    Had Star Trek (The Motion Picture, but really just a prequel to Star Trek, but we can’t give it its own subtitle lest people think it’s a direct sequel to the terrible Star Trek: Nemesis) come out this year as intended, it really would have been a rerun of summer 1989. Does anyone else think it’s hilarious that Paramount is basically spending so much that it’ll have to double or triple the highest-grossing Star Trek movie in order to just break even?
    I always say that you should never spend more on a sequel than the original made domestically. I guess I should make a new rule: never spend $150 million+ on a sequel/prequel to a series where the highest grossing of ten films was $109 million. Nothing would make me laugh harder if the film makes the same $90 million that Star Trek: First Contact made in 1996.

  14. EthanG says:

    For certain? Are you using DP’s worldwide math from earlier this week? Either you think
    1. TDK is going to gross less Order of the Phoenix, Lord of the Rings Two Towers, Finding Nemo, Shrek 2 and Spiderman 3 world wide.
    2. You think the Half Blood Prince is going to wind up the second highest grossing film of all time (worldwide) behind Titanic. umm…

  15. the keoki says:

    do we know what TDK is doing abroad?

  16. It’s only done about $42 million overseas thus far. Obviously Warner is rolling this out the old-fashioned way, as opposed to the simultaneous attack that has become the norm with event films.

  17. Telemachos says:

    BATMAN BEGINS did more domestically than internationally… I think it did something like $380m worldwide (too lazy to go to BOM to double-check, but I know I’m close). If we assume a similar breakdown for DARK KNIGHT (not unreasonable), its worldwide gross will probably end up around $850-900m. That’s very strong, but I also think HARRY POTTER will give it a run for its (worldwide) money… the HP series has always been very strong internationally.
    I finally saw DARK KNIGHT, btw — and it’s truly astonishing in IMAX. If anyone hasn’t caught the IMAX version, it’s worth it and then some. Seeing action scenes on an eight-story IMAX screen with amazing, crystal-clear detail, is just jaw-dropping.

  18. The Pope says:

    Re: internationally…
    TDK opened in the UK and Ireland on Friday. I expect it to do huge numbers (70 / 80 for its full run). It’s not only the franchise and the expertly marketing campaign… Christian Bale is Welsh, Christopher Nolan is English and Michael Caine is a genuine Knight!

  19. Tofu says:

    Batman films, and superhero comics in general, don’t do so hot overseas. Begins only garnered $161 million overseas, but this one could double that.
    And yes to the IMAX screenings, which Dark Knight has set records on, and could be what push the film over the $500 million domestic marker. Which easily makes it the #2 domestic film of all-time. Has the offside chance of hitting $400 million by this time next week!

  20. mutinyco says:

    Bat = $440M WW

  21. the keoki says:

    that’s it ….The Bat will be the worldwide winner by the end of the year! Ethan is right. Simple math right?

  22. Who are Fox kidding with that $10.1mil take for The X-Files?
    I’m surprised nobody has mentioned the amazing hold for Mamma Mia! I’m quite surprised, actually. $100mil seems certain now. Also, Sex and the City finally crossed $150mil. Even in the face of The Dark Knight that accomplishment feels impressive. And Wall-E finally has a decent hold.

  23. Tofu says:

    Fox News reported X-Files 2 as $25 million for the weekend on Saturday. What the fuck is wrong with those people?

  24. ployp says:

    KamikazeCamel, I just realized that I’m not the only one still waiting for Wall-E. It hasn’t been released in Australia right? This is so, so frustrating.

  25. C-PhreekII says:

    Another aspect to consider is that the drop from last week to this includes the Thursday night haul of $18M. If you were to subtract that from the total so you have true Fri-Sun weekend comparison, the drop is more like just 46% ($140M to $75M).
    Really curious to see what the weekday numbers are going to be like this week. Those IMAX screenings should really help sustain it over the next couple of weeks.

  26. Yup. Not out until September. Leahnz also has to wait. The trailer screened at both Mamma Mia! and The Dark Knight so I’m hoping those two movies being huge hits can help Wall-E make a bit more money here than Ratatouille did.

  27. the keoki says:

    this week’s number’s will tell the story…if it’s over 10 on Monday i’ll be at a loss. right?

  28. Telemachos says:

    Obviously it’ll depend on Sunday’s actuals, but it has a decent shot at a $10m Monday. Probably a more realistic guess would be $9-$9.5m, which is still astounding (its main competitors grossed half that on their second Mondays).
    It should be hitting $400m sometime in the next 7-8 days (maybe 9 days at the outside) with plenty of steam to get to $460+. The question now is whether it’ll have legs to reach $500m (TITANIC is and has always been out of reach, no matter what Paul Dergarabedian says).

  29. christian says:

    Money makes the world go around, the world go around…

  30. doug r says:

    My wife and I saw Stepbrothers yesterday. Hilariously profane. Much better than Semi-Pro. Keep watching as the credits roll.

  31. martindale says:

    With those numbers, I guess we won’t be seeing much of an expansion for American Teen.

  32. EthanG says:

    Keep in mind TDK still hasn’t opened in the 3 largest non North American/Euro markets…Japan, Russia and South Korea…or France, Spain or Germany. Aka it’s only opened in half of the top 10 non North American markets…

  33. Spacesheik says:

    STEP BROTHERS was hilarious, managed to keep the laughs going until the 3rd act when the sentimental ‘plot’ kicks in – even though it loses steam it was a great time at the movies, vulgar, fast-paced, and great performances alc l around. The AMC audience I saw this with loved every minute of it.
    X FILES however was a different story. A deadly time at the movies…
    I am an X FILES fan and rushed last night to see the flick. I was surprised it was playing at one of the smaller AMC screens the theater was half full, a bad omen as well.
    I was quite disappointed with the film, a dreary, pedantic relationship drama with serial thriller overtones, obviously the film – though strikingly shot – was aiming for an existential, faith versus science motif, it seemed just over 90 minutes and lacked any action, tension or interesting set pieces.
    A far cry from the original which made over $100 million and played the larger screens, don

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon