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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Klady

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Well… that would be me being wrong. Tropic Thunder‘s number was right in line with their Friday estimate. The House Bunny didn’t even have as good a weekend trajectory as Traveling Pants 2… evne though Pants had a Wed and Thurs to eat weekened dollars. (For the sake of accuracy, Bunny is about 25% behind Pants at the end of the first weekend.)

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34 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady”

  1. movieman says:

    That sure is a shitty bow for “Hamlet 2.” I bet Focus would’ve never positioned this for a wide-ish bow next Wednesday if they’d known just how lackluster its limited opening would turn out to be.
    Guess their “Little Miss Sunshine” dreams have officially ended.
    Jason Statham is turning into the white, Cockney equivalent of Tyler Perry. His films always seem to open at the same medium, “good-enough-to-get-the-next-job” level, yet they always have a finite ceiling due to zilch crossover appeal. At least Perry’s movies can be counted on for bigger opening weekends.
    Kind of surprised that “The Rocker” turned out to be d.o.a. They promo-ed the thing to death in the Cleveland market this summer, and audiences really seemed to dig it (of course, the film’s Cleveland setting may have had something to do with it).
    Ah well.
    Considering its stealth ad/pub campaign, $4.3 for “The Longshots” isn’t really that bad. With Cube’s track record, it could’ve easily opened to $10-million or better if MGM/W had actually sold the damn thing. Caught it at a late matinee Saturday afternoon, and–much to my surprise–the theater was actually half-full. Not “terrible,” just sort of generic-bland.
    I expected something with a little more edge from Durst.
    Speaking of which: has anyone actually seen Durst’s directorial debut? I recall that it was decently reviewed at the Tribeca Film Festival, but to the best of my knowledge it never even received a home video release.
    Nice opening for “House Bunny.” As everyone has already noted, Farris is the best thing in it. But there are some incidental pleasures, including an amusing good-sport cameo by Hef.
    It’ll be interesting to see if “HB” has legs: it sure feels like a w.o.m.-type sleeper (e.g., “Legally Blonde”). I bet Sony would’ve sneaked this last weekend if there were actually such a thing as “sneak previews” anymore.

  2. Jeremy Smith says:

    I hate to invoke HAPPY, TEXAS…

  3. anghus says:

    Was i the only one who thought Tropic Thunder was a funny first 20 minutes and then it became almost intolerable?
    Maybe so.
    Is Jason Statham worth more than 40 million for any film? I’m guessing the DVD sales must be through the roof for Statham, because he puts out 3-4 films a year and they all make the same chunk o change.
    Nice to see the House Bunny perform well. I read at Finke’s site where she called it ‘a rip off of the girls next door tv show’ or something. has she ever watched the show?
    Im still amazed at how well the Dark Knight did. Heading towards 500 million, bananas.

  4. bmcintire says:

    The truly repellant print campaign for THE ROCKER did it no favors. As for HAMLET 2, HAPPY TEXAS indeed.

  5. EthanG says:

    Milestone update: TDK is now at 870 million worldwide…still crawling toward A Billie, might make it there given the Olympics are over. Will probably pass Sorcerer’s Stone as Warner’s biggest worldwide film ever. It’s also about a day from passing Spiderman to become the top attended superhero movie ever, and is about 10 days away from selling the most tickets of any film since The Phantom Menace.
    Yeah, “The Rocker” isn’t even going to pay for its prints…
    *Great hold for the Woodman given VCB didn’t expand.
    *Surprisingly good expansions this week for “Elegy” and “Frozen River”!!!!! (and even Transsiberian)
    *How in the world has “Tell No One” made 4 million? Who is going to see this???

  6. SJRubinstein says:

    Anybody else kind of put off by the satirical “diary” Woody Allen contributed to the New York Times today of his time shooting “Vicky Cristina Barcelona?” What I liked about “VCB” was that the authorial hand of Allen was noticeably absent – no role played by Allen or, like in “Melinda and Melinda”/”Celebrity”/whatever – no actor in the lead functionally doing a Woody Allen impression. Even “Match Point” seemed to be self-referential as there were a lot of ties to “Crimes and Misdemeanors.”
    “VCB” just feels like a movie without baggage to me and I quite enjoyed what Allen had to say in the movie – about life, love, conflict and passion. Neat stuff.
    But this diary then goes out of its way to ruin it as Allen “sends up” the public image of him as a pervert acting out his fantasies by always casting beautiful women that he then romances in the other films. He talks about having trysts with Cruz, Johansson and Hall, having to teach Bardem how to tear Cruz’s clothes off, etc. – and while it is obviously him poking fun at his public persona (its suggested to the reader that Bardem thinks Allen’s a moron, though we’re similarly led to believe that Allen’s clueless about this), it just kind of rung hollow to me. Ha-ha, I understand what people think of me and ha-ha, let me “confirm it” with this jokey article.
    I don’t know why it rubbed me the wrong way – maybe because I was watching “VCB” with a kind of hands-over-my-eyes approach wondering when it was going to derail (I still have problems in “Match Point” when Scarlett’s character goes from desirably brooding temptress to super-clingy yenta in one scene). When it never did, I was thrilled.
    That article today, however, felt like Allen self-destructively going ahead and finding a way to derail the experience after the movie’s already spooled.

  7. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    Movieman – Comparing Tyler Perry to Statham is pretty strange as Perry has zilch appeal outside of the US. Whereas Statham is the most bankable action star in the world today. The ancillaries are huge for most of his films. He has more potential appeal than Seagal ever had and when the right project hits, expect an opening of $50m soon. The only thing against him is over saturation at this point. The Sweeney remake will be huge in Commonwealth countries that grew up on the show. A smart move would be for him to show range and do a Vin style family friendly flick. The guy has charm and could parlay that to moving away from straight action vehicles to something like PG versions of The Bank Job – not necessarily The Pacifier route. It looks like he’s being driven by agents who want the easy paydate at the moment, keeping him on the franchise train. A shame because I think he could break out. Big time.

  8. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    btw I don’t call Matt Damon an ‘action’ star. I’m talking your Seagals, your Speakmans, your Jets, your Chucks etc

  9. movieman says:

    JB- I was only comparing the domestic b.o. performances of Statham and Perry movies.
    Both seem to have a built-in (b.o.) ceiling that they never exceed due to an apparently stagnant audience base; both open at or around the same numbers every time out (Perry’s top-loaded joints, of course, open bigger); and both make a helluva lot of movies.
    What’s interesting is that, despite the seeming popularity of Statham’s actioners on DVD, they haven’t been able to lure any new bodies into an actual theater to see a Statham flick.
    You’d swear that the majority of those renters must think his movies are all straight to h/video productions.
    Even Seagal had some crossover success in the early ’90s with stuff like “Under Siege.” I guess Van Damme’s b.o. history is probably the closest, and most apt, comparison, even though Statham isn’t (and never was) a martial arts dude.
    None of my comments are meant to disparage Statham in any way. Despite a somewhat limited range (“London” and “Revolver” anyone?), I genuinely like the guy.

  10. movieman says:

    …and the thought of Statham doing a “Game Plan”/”Pacifier”-type of Disney kidflick is too profoundly depressing for words…

  11. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    Well the days of Seagal are long gone. No way something like Under Seige 2 would open like it did these days. His numbers might be like VanDamme but he definitely has more potential than that midget ever had.
    Maybe he skewers too old with his co-stars. Sounds like Statham needs to pair up with a couple of young studs. Most of his stuff is kind of nihilistic. I honestly believe he can cross over if he brightens up and gets in something poppy. But hell no – not Pacifier route.
    His performance in Bank Job showed more range than his previous limited repertoire had led us to believe. Revolver I blame on Ritchie being disinterested in actors in general. Swept Away anyone?

  12. movieman says:

    Statham’s top grosser to date is “The Italian Job:” an ensemble piece in the truest (and finest) sense of the word.
    I’d like to see him do more of those.
    Speaking of which, whatever happened to the plans for an “Italian” sequel?

  13. leahnz says:

    ha, i thought i was the only person on the planet who loved ‘the italian job’ remake, the cast, the heists, the soundtrack…only grumpus doodah norton sort of lets the side down.
    i liked statham as ‘handsome rob’, but he seems to play the exact same character over and over in every movie (granted i haven’t seen ‘the bank job’ but in the previews he appears to be playing the same character yet again), he must be bored stiff of himself. he needs to break out and play a breezy role with some hair and a different accent just to mix it up

  14. EOTW says:

    I thought that article was better and funnier than any of the Woodman’s films since S&L in ’99.

  15. Spacesheik says:

    Who would have thought JOURNEY TO THE CENTER OF THE EARTH would outgross HELLBOY 2 by a large margin?
    Brendan Fraser gets two back to back over $100 million grossers this summer. He is happy camper.
    Re: THE ROCKER – did anyone think the unfunny marketing for this would lead to a hit?
    And yes, I agree with Anghus, TROPIC THUNDER loses steam after the first 30 minutes or so and the Tom Cruise cameo wasn’t *that* funny.
    But Robert Downey Jr. bless his heart is one charismatic mutha, highly entertaining, steals the show.

  16. christian says:

    The look on Downey’s face as he’s goading Stiller to talk about becoming Simple Jack was amazing.

  17. LexG says:

    DURST OWNS.
    Movieman, “Education of Charlie Banks” is supposed to be excellent, but sadly has been MIA since its festival success.
    DURST HAS THE DIRECTING GOODS, and everyone needs to acknowledge it. He studied under FINCHER, so if you diss DURST, you diss FINCHER since that’s his MENTOR.
    Obviously “Longshots” was never gonna be some edgy transgressive art flick, but Durst keeps it moving, the DP work is handsome, and the quiet character scenes are all surprisingly sensitive and sometimes downright sweet. Good work all around by FD on an admittedly straightforward movie.
    DURST COMMANDS YOU. DURST OWNS.

  18. jeffmcm says:

    Urge to kill…rising…
    So Lex, what Fincherisms appear in The Longshots?, he asked warily.

  19. EthanG says:

    Does Durst have cancer? This may be his last film so I wouldn’t diss him just for that. He looks extremely pale, gaunt and gray.
    Durst is dying.

  20. Is Cruise only in that one scene that I’ve seen floating around the ‘net? Cause it wasn’t that good, really. Ooh, Tom Cruise is using a lot of bad language. And anyone who says he’s “unrecognisable” (almost as overused as “masterpiece!”) has clearly never seen a picture of him in the last 20 years.
    Nice to see the grosses for House Bunny and Vicky Cristina Barcelona.
    The failure of The Rocker thankfully pulls the pin on Rainn Wilson’s leading man career, but it also proves that sticking a picture of your unattractive and pasty why leading man on your poster without a shirt guarantees failure. Dewey Cox, anyone?
    I must say I was wrong though about Brendan Fraser’s films. I didn’t think Journey had a chance to overtake Mummy 3, but it sure looks like it’ll happen. Or it’ll definitely be far closer than I anticipated.
    I sniffed out the non-success of Hamlet 2 the moment it was purchased.

  21. Rob says:

    “*How in the world has “Tell No One” made 4 million? Who is going to see this???”
    Good reviews and word of mouth still hold some sway among a select audience, even these days. Plus there’s always a market for French thrillers with a little bit of sex. Even Roman de Gare, which isn’t anywhere near as good as Tell No One, did close to $2 million.
    I’m sad for Hamlet 2, I checked it out last night and thought it was pretty great. It’s worth seeing for the Catherine Keener margarita scene alone.

  22. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Sony Pictures Classics has become the worst distributor in the US film industry. “Frozen River” is stuck in the arthouse ghetto and SPC won’t push to get it into megaplexes.
    Also, SPC refuses to provide its titles in DLP for theaters that are all-DLP. When arty fare like “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” and “Bottle Shock” are released in DLP that’s a clear sign the industry’s transition to DLP is unstoppable.

  23. EthanG says:

    I think that despite “Hamlet 2” this weekend (which I also think will do better than expected next weekend) that this was the first time we FINALLY saw some life in the indie market in awhile. “Elegy” still has some robust room for growth, as do “Frozen River,” “Bottle Shock” and “Trassiberian” after good expansions this weekend.
    After a summer of death for films like “Wackness,” “The Promotion,” etc this is the first time in recent memory people have turned to alternative fare in decent numbers.
    That should continue this week as “Sukiyaki Western Django” (very very niche) and “Young People Fucking” (for the title alone?) are the only flicks with any buzz and the same goes for the weekend after (Only “Passengers”) with the kids headed back to school and a trove of movie nobody wants to see hitting multiplexes. (“College,” “Disaster Movie,” “Bangkok Dangerous,” “Accidental Husband,” “Babylon AD.)”

  24. yancyskancy says:

    Saw “Tell No One” a few weeks back, and I’m a bit surprised that the WOM is strong. The first half or so is smashing and very visual, then it starts to get fairly rote and rather talky, then a late twist kicks it back up a notch. Good movie, well worth seeing, but not great IMO.
    The only directing I’ve seen by Durst is the Dwight Yoakam video “Close Up the Honky Tonks.” Very nice job; unusual, a bit arty, even a bit moving (and a fine song). I was rather taken aback when I saw the director credit.

  25. jeffmcm says:

    “‘Frozen River’ is stuck in the arthouse ghetto and SPC won’t push to get it into megaplexes.”
    I thought this was because it was an Oscar-whoring piece of garbage. Please clarify, Chucky.

  26. Chucky in Jersey says:

    In the New York area “Frozen River” is playing only in arthouses. It’s not in the AMC Empire or any suburban megaplexes.
    One reason the river may stay frozen is Vicky Cristina. Per Variety, the latest Woody Allen pic will add theaters for Labor Day weekend.

  27. jeffmcm says:

    That’s all well and good, but what are we to make of that information?

  28. leahnz says:

    hey kam, re: your tom cruise/tropic thunder query, he’s in several scenes – three or four, i can’t remember exactly – which for my money is not a ‘cameo’ but a small role, but anyway, his attempt at taking the mickey is mildly amusing and meant to shock more than anything, i think, but i must admit his dancing did make me laugh. i wanted to get up and get down with him.
    i thought the movie itself was strange, like it didn’t quite know what it wanted to be, flirting with being a flat-out spoof, but then retreating into what someone must have deemed more subtle satire…i sorta wish it had gone the whole hog into spoofdom, it might have been hilarious, because it didn’t quite work for me as it was, tho it was funny and downey was superb, as always (and my bet is that though he’s played it down in the media, crowe was indeed his accent model, because downey sounds exactly like crowe, complete with his ghost of a kiwi twang still lurking from crowe’s youth)

  29. christian says:

    And sometimes satire doesn’t close on Saturday night…

  30. Richard Nash says:

    The weekend of huge bombs.
    LONGSHOTS, ROCKER, HAMLET 2
    I’ll toss DEATHRACE in there because it will fall off by a solid 70% next week.

  31. movieman says:

    I thought I’d read on FilmJerk.com that “Accidental Husband” got pushed back (again), this time to 2009.

  32. Spacesheik says:

    Saw DEATH RACE, pretty entertaining yarn, fast-paced, kinetic, bloody and had some great turns by Jason Statham and Ian McShane. I expected much, much worse, its a solid actioner (even the Mrs liked it).

  33. LexG says:

    Anyone know why TRAITOR (is that what it’s called) is getting a Wednesday release?
    Are they really that eager to get the jump on DISASTER MOVIE?
    OR, despite its total middle-aged-Tom Clancy man vibe and middlebrow Bourne-esque campaign that paints it as a milquetoast political thriller, does the presence of Cheadle in the lead somehow qualify it for one of those (insulting) “urban Wednesday” releasees?
    I doubt it’s the latter, but what could possibly be the thinking here? Is anyone really anticipating this middling, low-pro movie enough to wanna get out there mid-week and beat the weekend crowds????

  34. yancyskancy says:

    When all the Pink Panther and Cheaper by the Dozen fans find out that Steve Martin came up with the story for Traitor, they’ll be out en masse.

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4