Weekend Estimates by Klady
Madea sells tickets and Tyler Perry is going to have to live with that. Now, he must love this character he created, but he does seem to chafe from it at times. But the trajectory on Madea is clearly his strongest play in a pretty strong Tyler Perry franchise, $22m for Diary of a Mad Black Woman to $30m for Madea’s Family Reunionn to $41 million this weekend.
Perry also dropped the news – maybe reported elsewhere before? – that the Sundance film, Push, is being renamed Precious, which is the title that made sense in the first place (for all too many reasons). Director Lee Daniels was running Mariah Carey around the Indie Spirits tent on Saturday… prepping for next year’s hopefulness.
The rest of the Top 5 is a show of strong holds, even 40% and 56% for two of the films… $8 million for weekend 4 of HJNIY is still quite a big number for a not well regarded film. And Taken‘s run is amazing… especially considering the film. That said, Peter Bart’s proclamation of Pierre Morel as The Hot Director of The Moment is okay with me. Maybe he will get better at story, but as an action director, he has mad skillz. I was still disappointed by Taken.
I am sick of all the box office Oscar whining at the moment… it’s not that there is not a story there… but the one that is being told is bullshit. We go through this every few years. Studios will still chase Oscar. But they will return to “commercial first” as a principle for a while… as they should. All this crap that “The Academy does this” and “The Academy does that” is for fools who think there is a monolith called “The Academy” “snubbing” The Dark Knight or whatever. For The New York Times and down the line… arguing that some idiot at a studio (and we know who you are, even if you are unnamed and unexplained as an unnamed source) is claiming that “If The Academy did this, then the ratings would be better” is irresponsible hackery.
Yes, the season should be shorted. Oscar should land, as I have been arguing for a while now, the Sunday before the Super Bowl… certainly no later than the Sunday before the Super Bowl. (And if that killed parties, that would, logically, increase ratings, because more boxes would be working.) But this notion that they need to make their choices more populist is embarrassing. The ratings, however low this year, will more than double The People’s Choice Awards.
There is some smarts in saying that the Oscars needs to be marketed like a movie opening… but a good movie marketer doesn
Friday the 13th got massacred this week. Not much of a shelf life, someone should put it back in the freezer.
I don’t care how you try to slice it, that drop for F13 is downright embarassing, even if it has already made a profit.
Coraline has gone from potential cult classic to bona fide hit.
WTF with Taken? Still haven’t seen it, but is it that solid? It’s obviously getting great WOM.
Slumdog is a beast. The Wrestler and The Reader continue to quietly chug along in the shadows.
81% drop. Ouch.
Anyone know the record for the largest 1st to 2nd weekend drop? That’s got to be close if not the new winner (loser).
Cloverfield dropped 68.3% in its second weekend, after a huge first weekend.
Star Trek: Nemesis dropped 76.2% in its second week, but it was after a mediocre 18 mill its first week.
81% has to be close to the worst, if not the worst.
There was a trailer for Precious (with that title) when I saw Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail at midnight Thursday/Friday.
Man, I think its awesome that Taken is doing this great, I loved the movie and a notch for Neeson and Besson is cool. And no matter the drop, F13 is a hit and will kill on video, even if its a generic, glossy sequel.
Taken is not a great movie by any stretch, but it’s a damn fun one. I was never even close to bored, and really hope we get to see Neeson play that character again.
Just curious: How many people on this blog actually have seen, or plan to see, Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail?
F13’s drop isn’t the worst, although it’s close. Classics such as “Undiscovered,” “Slow Burn,” “Gigli,” “Bad Moon” and “Return to the Blue Lagoon” have it beat.
However, it is the highest-ever second-weekend drop for a film to be released in more than 3,000 theaters, which is saying something. It’s the worst such drop since “Doom.” The full chart here:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/drops.htm
I commented on “Madea” yesterday in a different blog-thread, Joe.
Can’t say that I was overly impressed with the “Precious” trailer.
Of course, being one of the few people who actually saw Lee Daniels’ previous film (the meretricious, “what-the-fuck-did-I-just-see?!” “Shadowboxer”), I could have been biased.
Oh, I already counted you, Movieman. But, on the other hand, you — like me — were paid to see it, right? Just curious to see how many other folks here have seen it.
I don’t think even the most optimistic prognosticator would have expected Slumdog to be this close to $100 million, this soon. Very impressive – this is not a typical “Oscar bump” run in the of Million Dollar Baby, The Aviator, or Cold Mountain.
This film is a genuine populist hit that if it wins tonight, will probably make numbers that exceed Juno and American Beauty. It MIGHT even have a shot of breaking into Gladiator or Chicago territory.
That said, Fox Searchlight has really screwed up with The Wrestler – there’s absolutely no reason they should not have taken it wide, two months ago, and it couldn’t have cleared $50 million by now. Not saying it’s like Rocky, but they sure could have heavily promoted the sports underdog elements and that Springstein song to a solid opening weekend. This was a film with an obvious hook, just like Gran Turino, that could have been utilized for a bigger release.
And sorry, Dave, I think you were wrong about Warners and Gran Turino – they played that just perfect. That film is heading towards almost $150 million and will make more than Benjamin Button, Yes Man, and pretty much every other major studio release coming out in December.
The box office, this winter, has hit a recessionary hot streak and Warners released it at just the right time to ride that wave.
Sadly, Joe, even if I wasn’t paid to see “Madea,” I probably would have gone; although definitely not on opening day.
I really need to stop this obsessive-compulsive need of mine to see every damn movie that gets a theatrical release.
2009 was supposed to be the year when I finally cut back (I actually had fantasies about using my free time to re-watch old favorites; ha!), but I just can’t bring myself to break the vicious cycle that’s plagued my entire adult life….even before I did this for a (“ha”again) “living.”
I saw Taken on Friday afternoon in Evanston, Illinois. It is perfectly harmless, fun entertainment with a modest running time. I was never bored even though it was incredibly predictable. Neeson pulls off the action hero thing quite well. I recommended the film to the crowd at my Friday evening bar hangout. Since November, I have gone to a movie every Friday afternoon and then headed to my favorite hangout in Evanston, The Bluestone, for beers and dinner.
Longtime reader, rare commenter.
I saw Madea Goes To Jail, although since I review films, you probably wouldn’t count me on your general public survey, Joe. I think I’d skipped all of Tyler Perry’s films since Family Reunion, mainly because they weren’t being screened and held zero appeal to me based on the first two.
I’ll grant that he’s improved his pacing and includes some genuinely funny moments (the WWJD bracelet’s effect on the aggressive driver) that I didn’t find previously, but his movies waste talented casts, look terrible, and often don’t make dramatic sense. I wouldn’t mind an out-and-out Madea comedy as that’s clearly his strength.
Movieman, are you going to the Cleveland Film Fest?
Ever since Diary of a Mad Black Woman, one of the worst films I’ve ever seen (and admittedly not actually directed by Perry), I’m happy to have dodged the Madea bullet every time since, though I have found things to like about other Perry movies — The Family That Preys had two great leads and a story with an over-the-top soap opera tone that was enjoyably campy.
As for going to jail, Madea is no Ernest P. Worrell.
Since most of the films I’m interested in at CIFF won’t have screeners available, I hope to make it to a few screenings, Mark.
My biggest problem with TIFF has always distance/travel time.
I live an hour/15 minutes away from Cleveland, and since I normally have to be there two-three times a week for screenings/promos, it’s easy to talk myself out of making any extra-curricular trips, especially in the endless northeastern Ohio winter.
Where are you based (does that sound excessively military?) Mark?
Totally off the grid here, but did anyone else happen to catch “Taking Chance” on HBO last nite? (I’m pretty sure that it premiered at Sundance last month.)
It’s a truly lovely, beautifully understated film, easily the best thing I’ve seen so far this year.
My eyes moistened up at least a dozen separate times during the under-90-minute run time.
Expect to be hearing a lot more about “Chance” at Emmy and Golden Globes time.
as i wrote on another site in december, i found ‘taking chance’ to be manipulative, pedantic and, for the most part, pretty boring… i was also pretty put off by its covert support of the war…but, like i said then, it’s one of the finest performances bacon has ever turned in and, you’re right, it’s gonna get some award attention…..
Tyler Perry’s films don’t get releases down here very often. I think I say Diary of a Mad Black Woman at Blockbuster once. That’s about it.
That Friday the 13th fall is horrendous/hilarious/embarrassing. But, as I said in the other thread, this weekend didn’t have the perfect storm of Friday the 13th AND Valentine’s Day. It was destined for a huge fall.
If we can bring up Taking Chance and HBO flicks…
Anyone watch that new Alexandra Pelosi doc “Right America,” about right-wing racists and rednecks and their reactions during the 2008 campaign? Like all her stuff, it’s superficial, slanted, and chockfull of easy, obviously selective “let them hang themselves with their own words” cheap shots while assuming a disingenuously noncommital tone. For those reasons, not sure she’s a very gifted documentarian… Her FAUX-objective tone is far more annoying than if she’d just start getting combative with her subjects, who she obviously has unspoken contempt for.
That said, it’s ENDLESSLY WATCHABLE seeing rednecks, loons, hicks and CRAZY MOTHERFUCKERS go OFF for 45 minutes straight with these terrifying and paranoid rants; Is she wheeling out like a doc every two weeks for HBO? ‘Cause like the Haggard thing, this really should’ve been longer.
To be mercifully fair to the poor F13, a $7.8M second weekend seems just about right. If it had merely been following a $20M opening weekend, this number wouldn’t really bat many an eye.
Wow; that’s a pretty extreme (negative) reaction, Scooter.
Obviously I had a completely different response to “Taking Chance,” but different strokes and all that.
I’m not sure I’d go as far as to accuse it of covertly supporting the Iraq War, although I wouldn’t have minded a moment or two in which somebody dumped on Bush, Cheney, et al for getting us into this imbroglio in the first place.
But much of the film’s strength derives from its neutrality, and I didn’t have a problem (large or small) with that.
I do agree with you about Bacon’s performance, however. While watching “Chance,” I actually flashed back to the first time I saw Bacon (in “Nat’l Lampoon’s Animal House”), and that made me a little misty, too.
i have a screener of ‘right america’ but haven’t watched it….i guess i should…
the haggard doc was just disturbing…i don’t know who’s crazier, him or his wife….
I think you’re pretty on target re: Pelosi’s HBO docs, Lex.
Despite its aesthetic failings (too numerous to mention although you nailed a few of them already), “Right America” is “endlessly watchable,” and the damn thing scared the fuck out of me.
As Bill Maher said the other night, I sure hope that Obama’s secret service dudes know their shit. Those are some scary redneck motherfuckers out there!
I think Haggard’s wife is even crazier than he is, Scooter.
Imagine staying married to that sleazy fuck after all the humiliation he put her through….
re: chance
i think what bothered me the most was that this has happened 4000 times over the past several years and this is the first we’re hearing of it…
i was also troubled that while they are claiming this is an unembellished translation of strobel’s journals, they have altered events for ‘cinematic’ reasons…one of the films most moving scenes was bacon’s refusal to leave the body in that cargo hangar…and it never happened (and strobel wrote the screenplay)…
but, really…4000 times and this is all we get…
re: haggard
yeah, the wife is totally stepford…
Movieman, I’m based in Columbus. I’ve attended at least a few days of CIFF the past three or four years. It’s a well run fest that serves the region quite nicely even if it doesn’t always have as many auteur films as I’d like.
Good column, David. It’s nice to know that at least at few entertainment journalists I capable of producing solid levelheaded pieces like that.
ISLA FISHER GIVES ME A
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONER.
Get it? I GET A BONER.
AS IN AN ERECTION.
BOW DOWN.
Yeah, FUCK YOU TOO, BITCH.
LEX FOR GOD IN 2009.