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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Klady

The box office carnies got caught with their hands in the jailbait jar again, as The Jonas Bros: 3D did very well, but was not half the phenom of Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: 3D. This is yet another example of the buzzmeter getting ahead of reality. I shouldn’t wag my finger too much because I didn’t tell them so, but the Top Five openings for kids this year, so far, have been Blart, Dog Hostel, Coraline, JB3D, and Pinky-P 2. Blart was the only one with multi-generational family appeal (in its sell) and girls of all ages were dead center on Hotel Le Puppy and Animated Dakota 3D. However hot The Jonas Bros. are, they didn’t have the years of pent up demand that Miley Cyrus did and they are not grrrl icons… they are heartthrobs. Much more narrow niche.
Slumdog Millionaire came on strong from Friday’s estimate, one of only two films to even come close to 4x Friday. This makes sense, as it is a mature title, even if it is expanding wider now. $28 million to Juno.
The other 4xer is Coraline, which is close to 5x. The film is already the #2 all-time domestic stop motion grosser in initial release, behind only Chicken Run. Henry Selick’s The Nightmare Before Christmas did $50 million in its initial run and has added $25m since. Wallace & Gromit and Corpse Bride both stopped in the 50s. And Selick’s Dahl adaptation did just $27m. Compared to other animated films, this might not seem that impressive. But given the genre, this is a really great success for Selick and for Focus.
Interestingly, The Reader, Milk, The Wrestler, and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button all seem to be getting small Oscar bumps, even after winning very little of marketing consequence. Drops are small and Milk is actually up 24%, albeit for a $1.3 million weekend.
Gomorrah continues to be a surprsingly strong player for IFC. They expanded this weekend and have the the #5 per-screen of all films on over 2 screens. And the others are the top 2 grossers of the weekend, are on IMAX, and star Harrision Ford on just 9 screens. So far, the strongest show of foreign language box office muscle around this last awards season was I’ve Loved You So Long, which has done about $3 million domestic.

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24 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady”

  1. Krazy Eyes says:

    Too bad to see Echalon Conspiracy debut with such a resounding thud. I didn’t see a single review, promo, trailer – anything — for this film and only knew it existed because I was a fan of Greg Marcks’ previous film, 11:14, which I thought showed some real promise.

  2. IHeartThatCurtis! says:

    Juno? Really? Watchmen. One more time: Watchmen.
    “‘The Watchmen: it gets rid of that horrible Oscar’s after-taste!’ AVAILABLE IN SILK SPECTRE LIME AND RORSCHACH ORANGE!”

  3. RedheadedWonder says:

    One thing that’s been peeving me is how Klady always grossly underestimate Coraline’s potential in his initial estimates. It’s been fun to see the film rise above expectations week after week. Quality prevails!

  4. Dave Vernon says:

    I can not WAIT to miss Watchmen. Every year there are about 2 or 3 films that I can’t wait to miss and this year Watchmen is right up there. I can’t wait for the film to open, see it up there on the marquee and drive right by, ten bucks still in my wallet.

  5. Rob says:

    Slumdog is on track to be the highest-grossing Best Pic since LOTR. That Academy just gets more and more our of touch!
    Sad that Coraline had to lose its 3D playdates to the Jonases. That’ll hurt it domestically to the tune of, what, $15 million?

  6. anghus says:

    How can you not want to see Watchmen?
    Even if it’s not good, it’s the discussion piece of the year, or at least until May. Even if i had no interest in the movie, i’d probably want to see it just to see what all the hub-bub is.
    The fact that you could frequent a site like this and participate in the talkbacks makes me think you’re nothing more than a shit-stirrer.
    “Everyone else wants to see this? NOT ME. Aren’t I novel?”

  7. Roman says:

    Dave, I’m sure that the opportunity cost of feeling good about skipping a blockbuster far outweighs the fact that you may actually be missing a good movie.

  8. Blackcloud says:

    Coraline deserves every penny it gets. I sure hope it comes back in 3D. I would see it again if it does. Makes me wish there was home theater 3D. It’s the first of the recent batch of 3D flicks that made me feel that way.

  9. David Poland says:

    I do think that the core audience will come out in force and a lot of TDK lovers will too… but again, get some perspective. (And the only reflection you seem to see, IO, is of yourself.)
    Just 3 minutes ago, a hardcore geek told me that he had no interest in seeing the film.
    Why do people have to turn into thugs just because they are excited about an upcoming movie? It’s the sickest behavior I see in the commenting on this blog, aside from when LexG is drunk posting.

  10. anghus says:

    I’ve never understood why people would frequent a movie website and not only talk about what they don’t want to see, but give a big “fuck off” to anyone who does.
    Like i said, you can smell the attention craving. No one would come to a film website and scream “THE MOVIE YOU’RE INTERESTED IN SEEING.. I’M NOT ASSHOLE”
    I’m not sure what statement that’s making other than “fuck whatever is popular”. It’s an attention ploy. If a movie irks you to the point where it’s success or failure matters to you, then you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem.

  11. movieman says:

    I’m sure that the opportunity cost of feeling good about skipping a blockbuster far outweighs the fact that you may actually be missing a good movie.
    Roman–You still haven’t answered my question from an earlier post.
    Where exactly are you (typing) from?
    From your utterly unique–and sometimes charming– appropriation of the American language, I’m guessing Eastern Europe perhaps?
    Ladies (well, Leah) and gentlemen: Latka Gravas is in the house!

  12. Joe Leydon says:

    David: Given your comment above, might I suggest — seriously — you open a thread or two next week where everyone can post away to his/her heart’s content about Watchmen, but you also open a thread or two or three that will be total Watchmen-free zones? And then we’ll see if the thugs… er, fans can contain themselves.

  13. Blackcloud says:

    Joe, isn’t that what he did last year, with the spoiler threads, non-spoiler threads, and Movie-X-free threads?

  14. Kim Voynar says:

    Ladies (well, Leah) and gentlemen: Latka Gravas is in the house!
    Er, wait … does that make me a guy?
    Anyhow, FWIW, I am a chick, not what you’d call a superhero-geek fare junkie (meaning, I usually see those films, often enjoy them, but don’t get all nuts in anticipation of them the way I do, say, the schedule for Toronto or Cannes), and I cannot WAIT to see Watchmen tomorrow night. Hype or not, geek-flick or not, all the buzzing about the film made me finally pick up the graphic novel that’s been sitting around our house for a while to read it, and I wouldn’t miss seeing it, even if I wasn’t planning to review it.
    And I also am a bit befuddled by the ire a film like Watchmen can generate in the comments here. It reminds me of lot of when I used to frequent some parenting blogs, and the highly hormonal new moms on there would be attacking each other endlessly about breast feeding versus bottle, or disposable diapers versus cloth, etc. I don’t get being so attached to a movie … or even an idea … to the extent that things have to get ugly. Perspective, folks. It’s a movie.

  15. “Makes me wish there was home theater 3D. It’s the first of the recent batch of 3D flicks that made me feel that way.”
    I think that’s the point of this whole “3D will save the cinema” mentality.
    Rob, if The Dark Knight had been nominated for Best Picture I can guarantee that eventually the Academy would be lambasted for merely “nominating it for ratings” or whatever, whereas not nominating it they get railed for “only nominating movies nobody wants to see” (which isn’t true). Whatever the Academy does, they will never win. There are people complaining about Departures‘ win for foreign language. It was “the worst win” of the night. Of course, it was the only legitimate “surprise” of the night and if it didn’t occur and, say, Waltz with Bashir won, people would complain that “even in the category most prone to upsets and surprises they were managed to be boring and predictable.”
    Again, wash rinse repeat.

  16. IHeartThatCurtis! says:

    Scorcher: get over your fucking self, will you? Please. Get over yourself. I was being facetious. You overly sensitive boob. Not only does your twitter pick make you look like a guy who would be seen on the evening news as a leader of a drug cartel. It also sums up what you are all about most of the time: NO FUN.
    If you did not catch that I was having some fun. You really need to get that self-imposed stick out of your bum, and learn to laugh again. I doubt Nikki BAT-SHIT Finke is as miserable as you come off most of the time. So live a little Scorcher. Live a little.
    Rob: Wow. Really? Wow.
    K:PQTD: Poppycock. TDK remains one of the best reviewed films of last year. If it were nominated. The Academy would have endeared many more people then they would have insulted.
    It’s always smart to sell to the people who see more movies, buy more movies, and discuss the movies than anyone else. Unfortunately the Academy think they are selling to 55 year-olds that see one movie a year, hardly discuss film, and buy less DVDs than anyone else. Wow. That’s good business sense.

  17. movieman says:

    I personally can’t wait to see “Watchmen.” It’s the first 2009 movie I’ve had even a modicum of enthusiasm about seeing (and anyone who’s followed my postings on here could tell you that I’m not a major geek enthusiast).
    Finally cracked the book (er, graphic novel) over the weekend, and am now officially super-psyched for Cleveburg’s Tuesday promo.

  18. IHeartThatCurtis! says:

    No; you are not a geek at all. So I am surprised. Good for you MM. Mixing it up.

  19. movieman says:

    No offense intended, Kim. I guess I just think of you more as MCN corporate brass than a fellow blogger on the message boards. (Again; no offense intended, lol.)
    Could “Roman” actually be an abbreviation for “Romania”?
    Now that would make sense.
    I’m sure that the opportunity cost of feeling good about skipping a blockbuster…
    “Opportunity cost”?!? Please translate.

  20. Blackcloud says:

    “I don’t get being so attached to a movie … or even an idea … to the extent that things have to get ugly.”
    Now that is surely one of the more curious remarks anyone has made on this blog. (The part about ideas, not movies, to be clear.)

  21. movieman says:

    “Watchmen” (the graphic novel) is fucking brilliant, Curtis, and the wildly eclectic cast fascinates me. (Love the reunion of “Little Children” stars Haley and Wilson!)
    Not entirely sold on Snyder yet, but I would sorely love for him to blow me away this time.

  22. Chucky in Jersey says:

    All this solid product says one thing: “Watchmen” won’t tie up 4-5 screens in every megaplex.
    “Slumdog Millionaire” also has a good chance to last into Easter, which this year will fall in mid-April.

  23. jeffmcm says:

    Thanks Chucky, the placement of Easter on this year’s calendar has been nagging at me for weeks.

  24. “K:PQTD: Poppycock. TDK remains one of the best reviewed films of last year. If it were nominated. The Academy would have endeared many more people then they would have insulted.”
    Who was that directed at? I wasn’t aware somebody going by the name “K:PQTD” posted at this blog.

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4