Weekend Estimates by Klady
The stats on Watchmen are, simply, what they are. $43 million behind 300 after a second weekend, based on estimates. A smaller opening, but a 14% worse drop (54% vs 68%). $130 million domestic is, really, looking like a stretch at this point. Japan and Hong Kong are the only major international territories not yet open. Hard to be sure, but $150 million foreign seems possible. More seems a bit dubious, unless the reaction there is much stronger than it’s been here. It looks like my “ultimate” numbers from last week may turn out to have been too generous by as much as 10%.
And for the record, I didn’t like 300 any more than Watchmen… my position didn’t get dramatic, the push back from GeekLand did.
Race To Witch Mountain still looks like The Rock’s biggest star opening ever. (The Scorpion King was an extension of the Mummy franchise and Get Smart was a well-promoted, but supporting role.)
Slumdog Millionaire is now not only the #1 Oscar nominee from this last season, but is now chasing down the tough guys… Paul Blart and Clint Eastwood. In fact, if the DVD doesn’t kill it, Slummy has a real shot at becoming the #1 box office film to go wide later than November of last year. (Teen Vamp, Bond, and Mad2 are tops from November and since.)
This should remind us, again, of those Oscar Bump stories of six weeks or so ago… the winner got the bump… but even more so, the movie that asked for the bump got the bump. It’s not mythology. It’s math.
Have I mentioned Miss March? Has anyone?
So if that percent change for Watchmen is still not taking last week’s midnight screenings into account (as Dave mentioned in the Friday Box Office entry), then we’re looking at an under 60% drop?
That has to be considered good news by all involved, no?
Actually, my math was bad. But mid-60’s is still not nightmarish, I’m imagining.
Rumors of its demise may still be premature.
Looking at Mojo, they’ve got Saturday-Saturday and Sunday-Sunday numbers around 58-60% drop.
The dropoff is not as big as it could have been, true. But looking at an avg of ~40% drops the rest of the way, the film won’t clear $130 mill. domestic. I can’t imagine that’s a number that will have anyone celebrating, although it’s certainly not a failure either (Dave may disagree).
Also looking deeper into the chart, one has to wonder if Toyota Sonata is an effort to boost faltering car sales. Even Toyota was hit last year, and I imagine every little bit helps even if it’s an arthouse film featuring the car. I know TransFormers is already losing the GM support for marketing that they were expecting.
Why should the Watchmen Thursday midnight shows be left out of the equation? If those didn’t exist, the people who saw the movie then would have just seen it Friday instead. What’s the difference when figuring out the drop to this weekend?
Regardless of how you look at it, it dropped like a rock this weekend.
Watchmen is only a failure in that it will not turn into a big money maker for the three studios involved in production and marketing costs. Fox will still make money.
At $250 million WWBO it should not result in a meaningful loss for Warner Brothers or Pramount (but maybe Legendary which does not get distribution fees?) assuming they can sell 5 million DVDs. Time Warner also benefits from the reissue of the books which sold like gangbusters for a few weeks.
What could have been a nice bump and cushion for Warners 2009 P&L now looks like breakeven to a modest loss. Puts more pressure on the rest of the slate. WB still off to a decent start this year with other films that should be very profitable including Gran Torino, He’s Just Not That Into You, and Friday the 13th.
“And for the record, I didn’t like 300 any more than Watchmen… my position didn’t get dramatic, the push back from GeekLand did.”
That’s fine, but why the continual comparison of Watchmen to 300’s box office performance? Just because they’re directed by the same guy? The subject matter is completely different. And Snyder’s hardly a household name.
Yeah, I don’t think it has much in common with 300, which was a high-octane bloodfest that had a much larger demographic.
Perhaps we should be comparing it to something like The Golden Compass, a high-budget undertaking of revered source material that was mismarketed, had a certain amount of controversy/troubled production, and are both adult-themed representatives of their respective genres.
And for the record, Watchmen is likely to double the domestic total of that film.
While I’ll agree that 300 was a much different movie than Watchmen, the marketing and release date was remarkably similar. WB probably should have realized that Watchmen would not get the same audience due to its length and , ahem, boringness, but they didn’t, so the comparisons are more than legitimate.
Well, one delivered on what it was advertised as. The marketing on the other was trying to hide something much more ponderous and complex, whatever you think of the film.
Again, we’re talking about a nearly three hour film that isn’t filled with action for the young’uns, and also won’t appeal to older viewers who like longer dramas. So it was a much tougher sell.
Speed Racer is what should be compared to 300, and that’s about it.
Also looking deeper into the chart, one has to wonder if Toyota Sonata is an effort to boost faltering car sales. Even Toyota was hit last year, and I imagine every little bit helps even if it’s an arthouse film featuring the car. I know TransFormers is already losing the GM support for marketing that they were expecting.
Martin- It’s “Tokyo Sonata,” not “Toyota Sonata.”
And that decent per-screen gross in the NY metro area proves that (print) critics aren’t completely irrelevant. Yet.
Manohla Dargis’ NY Times rave surely contributed to those Manhattan number: this is a subtitled Japanese art flick by a relatively obscure director.
Also looking deeper into the chart, one has to wonder if Toyota Sonata is an effort to boost faltering car sales. Even Toyota was hit last year, and I imagine every little bit helps even if it’s an arthouse film featuring the car. I know TransFormers is already losing the GM support for marketing that they were expecting.
Martin- It’s “Tokyo Sonata,” not “Toyota Sonata.”
And that decent per-screen gross in the NY metro area proves that (print) critics aren’t completely irrelevant. Yet.
Manohla Dargis’ NY Times rave surely contributed to those Manhattan numbers: this is a subtitled Japanese art flick by a relatively obscure director.
sorry for the double post.
Keypad/Typepad/Pad Thai/Whatever-the-**** strikes again
“Time Warner also benefits from the reissue of the books which sold like gangbusters for a few weeks.”
Not just a few weeks, but going back months and months and months. At the New York Comic Con and SF’s Wondercon this past February, dealers were talking about how selling “Watchmen” trades was helping their bottom line as monthlies just continue to drop.
Always good to see people heading to the comic shop.
Now I really want to see somebody make a film called “Toyota Sonata”, although the more interesting variant might be “Elegy for G.M.”
Uh… because it was directed by the same director… released on close to the same date… with pretty much the same or higher expectations based exclusively on the director’s last film, an R-rated, violent, flashy recreation of a graphic novel that relatively few people had read and grossed over $400 million worldwide… that’s all.
I am kind of stunned that anyone would argue that there is a dog hair’s difference between these two films in the marketplace, unless you want to argue that because of the book following, Watchmen should have done better, not worse.
The ongoing revisionism is breathtaking at times. It’s like all of a sudden, everyone forgot that 300 was R-rated… forgot about the sex… forgot about the violence… forgot about the homoeroticism. It’s like Watchmen is COMPLETELY different! I mean, what kind of idiot would compare the success of Spider-Man and Batman… one is made by Marvel and one by DC. Why compare Witch Mountain to The Game Plan? What a coincidence that studios release pictures with similar DNA at the same time prior movies with that DNA did great! A shock!
Laz and Brack don’t seem to be dumb very often, no matter how contentious… but geez… really… you really want to make the argument that, financially, 300 is not THE film to compare this too? Really?
It’s $39 million better, after two weekends, than V for Vendetta. Is that better?
P.S. My strong guess is that V for Vendetta, which will make $100 million or $150 million less worldwide than Watchmen, will end up better on the books because DVD was stronger overall in 2006 and it cost at least $100 million less to make than Watchmen. Please do the math.
“It’s like Watchmen is COMPLETELY different!”
You mean a three hour anti-superhero revisionist socio-political treatsie on the dual nature of comic book iconography is the same as half-nude men killing each other for 90 minutes?
To think groups of mall teens would respond the same to WATCHMEN as 300 beggars logic…
David, the majority of people who went to see 300 probably had no clue about the source material (if they even knew there was any), nor did they care. And I don’t think the graphic novel had any kind of huge following like Watchmen does. It’s widely considered minor Miller, and has been read by a fraction of the people who have read Watchmen.
Bottom line is, 300 isn’t a comic book film. It has none of those genre tropes. It’s a historical action film, and crazy or not, should be compared to Troy, Gladiator, The 13th Warrior, whatever.
Why not just compare Watchmen to Dawn of the Dead while you’re at it? Same release date, director, violent and flashy.
And I think V For Vendetta IS a fair comparison. It was advertised similarly to the same audience and shares a political subtext that probably wasn’t what many people in that audience wanted to see. Throw in Watchmen’s extended running time and it’s still a tougher sell than that one.
“You mean a three hour anti-superhero revisionist socio-political treatsie on the dual nature of comic book iconography”
You’re such a nerd. But I agree with your point that it’s not a perfect comparison between the two films. To me, Watchmen was made and marketed to the same demo that went to see Sin City, V for Vendetta, X-Men, etc. 300 to some degree, but less so. That it was (supposedly) made more expensively and marketed more expensively was where things went awry. Basically they went for the same audience as the above films, but hoped to break out more. This is unlike 300, which really just hit 2 quadrants VERY hard, I think they expected Watchmen to play a bit wider and thus $200+ was a realistic goal. Or maybe not. But I would imagine Snyder was hired due to his skill and success with 300. They did see some of 300 in Watchmen, but agreed it’s not a perfect comparison.
However, to get back to your quote above, you’re truly navel gazing if you think Watchmen at a (supposed) $150 mill budget and (supposed) $50 mill marketing campaign, was not aimed at mall teens. It was aimed at perhaps teens plus an adult audience (like 300), but if you saw a single ad for the film you’d be an idiot to say it was NOT aimed at the teen audience. The problem with your argument is that it’s based on the faulty concept that what a film is (ie your nerdy description above) is how it will be sold to the public. Of course that couldn’t be further from the truth.
I didn’t get the sense that Christian was denying Watchmen was marketed at that crowd, Martin. I just think he is pointing out the flaw in expecting one film to do as well as something that actually does deliver what it promises in the ads.
And of course, if teens saw Watchmen and were mostly like “huh?”, they passed that negative word-of-mouth around.
I’ve never read WATCHMEN or 300. I’m the anti-nerd.
‘And of course, if teens saw Watchmen and were mostly like “huh?”, they passed that negative word-of-mouth around.’
yes, at lighting speed to gaggles of other teen mallrats via texting. texting can make or brake a film
If you were to program a double feature, would you go for:
WATCHMEN and 300
or
HANCOCK and 300?
Nothing “nerdy” about pointing out the content of the material. But if it makes you feel good…of course, you spent paragraphs to talk about 300 and WATCHMEN…
Who’s really watching the nerds?
that would be ‘make or BREAK’. i don’t know what’s wrong with me lately
> Why compare Witch Mountain to The Game Plan? What a coincidence that studios release pictures with similar DNA at the same time prior movies with that DNA did great! A shock!
If I’m recalling correctly, “The Game Plan” opened in September. And God help me if I’m right, because there are a lot more important things I’ve forgotten.
Looked it up, and “The Game Plan” was in September. The Rock has had only two wide releases that didn’t open at No. 1 – “Walking Tall” (which came in #2 to “Hellboy”) and “Be Cool” (which came in #2 to “The Pacifier.”)
David, I’d say that “The Pacifier” is your better Disney-family-action-comedy-in-early-March comparison.
WHOA, HOLD ON A SECOND:
EDGE OF LOVE was released, and in L.A.?????????
I just checked the IMDB and it’s apparently playing at the Nuart. Shouldn’t KEIRA KNIGHTLEY AND SIENNA MILLER PLAYING HOT LESBIANS come with SOME kind of advertising campaign and actual release? I had no idea the movie was even FINISHED, let alone that it dropped this very weekend.
Sienna + Keira = BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONER.
I noticed that too, Lex. And then I came to the conclusion that the movie must suck. Didn’t Keira’s mom (weird) write it or something. But I remember a big deal being made about it back when LiLo was supposed to be in it. I didn’t expect it to be dropped this hard.
I wouldn’t want to watch either 300 or Watchmen in a double-feature with any movie that has ‘Cock’ in its title…
“Now I really want to see somebody make a film called “Toyota Sonata”, although the more interesting variant might be ‘Elegy for G.M.'”
Jeff, it’s already been done by Chopin; he called it the “Funeral March.”
I know this will strike many (including me) as absurd, but I can’t help comparing “Watchmen” to “Twilight” for some reason. Totally dissimilar, I know, yet I can’t help thinking they are somehow analagous.
David, you must look past how something was marketing and look at what was marketed. Watchmen was not advertised as a wall-to-wall war/fighting film like 300; ads indicated some sort of mystery, with some action and great visuals. Maybe I’m more perceptive of what to expect from a film based on how it was marketed than most, I really don’t know, but I never once felt the same vibe from the Watchmen ads as I did for 300 ads, aside from some slow motion and some name checking. Obviously the studio was trying to recreate 300 numbers, but to expect to do the same with a different subject matter is very shortsighted.
blackcloud — perhaps the comparison comes from an air of desperation both films share…in the case of ‘twilight’ it was from the studio…in the case of ‘watchmen’ it was from the fans…. just a thought….
This debate is insane.
If WB wasn’t aiming at the 300 crowd, then why was everything based around the “visionary director” monicker? They weren’t talking about his zombie remake.
Look at the basic elements. Both are non-traditional comics that were created by two of the most acclaimed creators in the past thirty years. Both were adapted by the same man. Marketing is about finding the simplest, clearest message possible and that is it. So when Dave uses 300 as comparison, he’s going by WB’s standard. They ads didn’t say “from the studio that brought you TDK” or “From the creator of V for Vendetta”. Snyder is why this got made, he was the straightest marketing angle they had.
TWILIGHT HITS DVD NEXT WEEK.
For under 20 DOLLARS you can bring THE POWER OF K-STEW into your home.
Is there an official NAME for WB’s FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH FANBOY DORKFEST WEEKEND? V For Vendetta, 300, 10,000 BC, Watchmen. Does the tradition of WB launching the year’s first supposed “big” fanboy movie go back further than ’06?
(And, yes, in hindsight I realize 10,000 BC barely counts, but it had the pimp spot last year and a similar campaign, if not a built-in fanbase.)
SOMEONE GIVE ME THE INSIDE SCOOP ON “EDGE OF LOVE.”
Is there KEIRA-SIENNA grindage or not? Thanks in advance.
They should’ve just called it EDGE OF BONER.
Scoot, that fits. I was thinking they are both niche properties whose prospects were contingent on a strong turnout of their fanbases, and consequently could have gone either. “Twilight” was no sure thing, and I think performed well above expectations. “Watchmen” is not doing as well as expected, given that it was pitched as a moral, if not filial, sequel to to “300,” as David and Martin S state above. I admit the comparison’s not direct, and can be considered a stretch. But it popped into my head and I thought I’d share it with you guys to see what you made of it.
Lex, if there’s no Keira + Sienna action, wouldn’t calling the flick Edge of Boner be false advertising?
1) There is no such thing as niche. If you believe there’s such a thing as a niche. Turn in your youth card, make sure to realize middle age starts at 27, and enjoy bermuda shorts with black socks.
2) Yes, it is insane to believe Watchmen was sold as a sequel to 300. It’s really freakin insane. Welcome to me looney farm!
3) Yes, it is insane to agree with Dog Balls in this case. He’s so far out to lunch, that he has ran out the door. He’s ran out the door, got in his car, and he’s screeching wheels up to Portland. Where he will hide out in a log cabin and repeat to himself; “YOUR GOD… YOUR GOD IS DEAD! YOUR GOD IS DEAD!”
From what I know of comic readers 300 and Watchmen are comparable and since Watchmen was being ‘sold’ as ‘from the director of 300’ and released at the same time of year I think it is valid.
I think 300 is more valid than comparisons to V for vendetta which was a very different interpretation of the same author.
And V for Vendetta DEFINITELY looks and will look better financially.
I followed Mr. Hayter’s plea and dropped in on Watchmen again. I’m glad I did because I was able watch it just as a film…
1. McWeeney’s right to use Blade Runner as reference. I always took that to mean a cult-like movie that eventually grows overtime, but what hit me was how many aesthetic cues Gibbons took from BR when he was working on Watchmen.
The constant rain, the wide cityscapes, the blimps, Veidt’s neon building…all BR staples. So when you adapt static panels to movement, you recall the original inspiration, which is Anton Furst.
2. Carla Gugino did a wonderful job of impersonating Jessica Lange circa Cat On A Hot Tin Roof.
3. Malin Akerman had three looks. In Manhattan’s home – Courtney Cox. In Nite-Owl’s Home – Elizabeth Rohm. In Costume – Natalie Portman.
4. Dan Dreiberg is – Rick Santorum?
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/dayart/movies/66176/66176_cb.jpg
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_L6pDyjqqsvY/R6ZdcuQwDuI/AAAAAAAAK-0/IDxK9YcyI24/s400/DSC00848.JPG
5. Adrian Veidt is – Seth Myers?
http://images.allmoviephoto.com/2009_Watchmen/2009_watchmen_047.jpg
http://www.topnews.in/files/images/Seth-Meyers3.jpg
6. I found it more odd that Manhattan’s voice wasn’t altered. I didn’t notice it the first time.
7. As for the movie itself…this thing is a trainwreck in the sense that if you’ve ever watched a train wreck, it doesn’t careen or blow-up. It slams on the brakes, screeches, derails, and finally comes to halt miles from where it wanted.
What this really suffers from is a classic case of telling instead of showing. IMO, Snyder was so intimated he felt the safest way was a total replication. It worked for 300, so why not? The problem is that comic panel is static and 95% of comic dialogue is used to convey unattainable emotion. So when you bring that static panel to life, the actor’s movement can convey all the necessary information with little dialogue needed.
The perfect example is Rorshach in Molock’s place. His frenetic energy makes every line except, “I’ve been setup”, superfluous. In the comic, you need it because your sensory intake is limited. Not in a movie. What we end up with are spoon-feedings, over and over.
And the multiple voiceover ruins several scenes. It’s unnecessary at Comedian’s grave, Manhattan’s origin, Rorshach and the psych..the images tell the audience what they need. So while I’d like to say Snyder was afraid the viewer would be too dumb to get it, I think he was more afraid of editing Moore’s words.
And that’s really what kills this movie; poor editing. Not in a craftsmen way, but structurally. You had a battle of two movies going on; a whodunnit vs an episode of Lost. Moore has admitted that the mystery was just the needle to thread the story over twelve months. But when you plug it all together, you see how weak it is. Just as you see how weak the Nixon material is, how repetitive the “brink of a cold war” talk is…this all existed for comic pacing and should have been excised after the first rough cut.
There’s a part of me that would love to take this film, grab the score and re-work the sucker into what it could have been. But the whole piracy issue and the venom surrounding this project makes me believe some people would love nothing more than to try and shank me. We’ll see. Someone else will probably get to it before I can.
Apologies for the hyperbole. Just saw Ron Silver passed. He was a great one. RIP Mr. Silver.
i saw ‘edge of love’ here ages ago (it’s just opening there? i will never understand the international distribution calendar) and it’s a big, fat, misguided bore about the loves of dylan thomaszzzz…. oops, sorry i feel asleep just writing about it
“2) Yes, it is insane to believe Watchmen was sold as a sequel to 300. It’s really freakin insane. Welcome to me looney farm!”
I knew I was imagining things when those ads said “From the visionary director of ‘300’”. No one would be stupid enough to say that in public for real. I need some meds to stop those hallucinations.
Martin S: Maybe I’m misreading you, but are you suggesting that Anton Furst was the production designer for Blade Runner? ‘Cause it was Laurence G. Paull.
blackcloud — your analysis is much more cerebral (and probably more correct) than my gut and superficial reaction but i agree there’s a connection between the two…..and, while i hated ‘twilight’ and liked (a lot) ‘watchmen, i think both will be just footnotes in a decade or so…….
Speed Racer was sold with “from the creators of The Matrix Trilogy.” By that rationale, I guess it’s fine to compare Speed Racer’s box office to The Matrix Trilogy’s. *rolls eyes*
I’m pretty sure there were discussions here last year on that very subject. Specifically, how odd it was that a G-rated kids’ movie was being sold as the work of the creators of an R-rated sci-fi trilogy. Just because selling the filmmaker didn’t make sense in that instance doesn’t mean the comparison is invalid in this one. Sorry, try again. *rolls eyes*
“I’m pretty sure there were discussions here last year on that very subject. Specifically, how odd it was that a G-rated kids’ movie was being sold as the work of the creators of an R-rated sci-fi trilogy. Just because selling the filmmaker didn’t make sense in that instance doesn’t mean the comparison is invalid in this one. Sorry, try again. *rolls eyes*”
With David gushing over Speed Racer last year, I don’t recall David making any such comparisons. And it’s not odd, it’s marketing, a selling point, nothing more, and doesn’t mean you’re going to get the same audience ever. Like I said, subject matter is very important. American audiences aren’t about trying new things when it comes to movies, but there’s always a chance that they might. I guess you can completely fool people into thinking your product is just like another product, but that’s pretty dishonest.
That being said, no one knew 300 was going to be as big of a hit as it turned out to be, so to use that film as a barometer of sorts just seems silly to me. I’m not saying the comparison is invalid, compare all you want, but it’s not really fair.
Edge of Love didn’t set any box office alight anywhere so that’s probably why it’s been dumped half a year after it came out elsewhere.
Also, it just occurred to me that maybe Chucky’s name checking thing was real this time. Maybe it’s just that not many people wanted to see a movie from the director of 300.
Scooterzz and Kami, thanks for the info then, because like I said upthread, I honestly didn’t even know the film was FINISHED, let alone that it had dropped in other places in the States and around the globe. I’d never even seen a trailer; I remember the stories about Lohan dropping out, but after that didn’t hear anything about it till this past week on IMDB– like publicity stills or something. So I assumed it was wrapping up production or they were still filming it… or something.
that weren’t scoot, lex luthor, t’was me
Ah, sorry, I think when you said zzzzz I associated it with scoot.
Keira is pretty much my favorite ACTRESS, along with Naomi Watts, Charlize Theron and Hilary Swank.
HEY WHY DON’T THEY JUST ASK ME TO DIRECT MOVIES?
Like, if I made EDGE OF LOVE, I’d set it in modern times because I DON’T KNOW WHO THE FUCK Dylan Thomas IS, nor do I CARE. AT ALL.
Instead it would star me as that douche and there’d be a threesome scene where my character would be TAXING THEIR FUCKING ASSES while LOST AT BIRTH by P.E. was playing or something, and the scene would be lit in ULTRAVIOLENT PURPLE INFRARED LIGHTING and our EYES WOULD BE GLOWING like some MALIK SAYEED “BELLY” shit.
And the bass would be fucking RIPPING on the soundtrack and it would be all sinister and AWESOME with their bodies lit up ALL PURPLE AND GLOWING.
GREAT FUCKING IDEA, LEXG is the VISIONARY of all time.
Also, “Belly” is the GREATEST FUCKING MOVIE EVER.
Yancy – thanks. I missed that. At one point, I was thinking how certain aspects reminded me of Batman ’89, leading to the mental cross-pollination.