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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Box Office Hell Shaves Its Balls

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16 Responses to “Box Office Hell Shaves Its Balls”

  1. Josh Massey says:

    Finke is raving about $1.6 in midnights for Bruno, saying that it’s a sign of a $50 million weekend. Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t $1.6 million a tad disappointing?
    I know it’s just midnights, but the target audience is on summer vacation.

  2. David Poland says:

    Personally, I was surprised that Universal was doing midnight shows. It’s not that kind of movie. But then again, WB might well go Midnight Show with the s&tc sequel. It’s another opportunity to sell tickets.
    It’s not bad. It’s not great. But Ron Meyers told Nikki it was GREAT, so for her, it is.
    The figure is unusual, so it’s hard to project based on it. Borat opened to $26.5m on 837 screens. High 40s wouldn’t be shocking here, but a faster drop is also likely, as Borat went wide in the second weekend and did another $28.3m. That dropped in half the third weekend.
    I wouldn’t be surprised to see $45m this weekend followed by $19m next weekend, followed by $7.5m in the third.

  3. Chucky in Jersey says:

    These estimates look awfully high. “Bruno” is getting savaged in the US press, umlauts or not.
    Plus the print ads for release day include “From the guy who brought you Borat”. That alone will please jeffmcm and his circle jerks.
    Prediction: “Bruno” underperforms this weekend and gets routed by Harry Potter starting Wednesday.

  4. jeffmcm says:

    Chucky, perhaps if you ever EXPLAINED YOURSELF you wouldn’t need to resort to childish name-calling.
    Borat was a big hit. Bruno is a quasi-sequel that happens to not actually be titled “Borat 2”. The studio needs to make people understand that it was made by the same creative team as the earlier hit, made in the same comedic style. The whole POINT of the movie is “From the makers of Borat”.
    What part of this do you not understand/dislike/object to?
    All that said, I also expect it to underperform to some degree.

  5. Joe Leydon says:

    As I recall, there were some folks on this very blog who complained that Borat should have opened much wider on its opening weekend. A handful of us contrarians counter-argued that making so much on so relatively few screens would give Borat the cachet of “phenomenon,” and stoke even greater audience interest. Well, looks like the gamble paid off for Borat. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out.

  6. David Poland says:

    Nah… it was the wrong strategy… they left money on the table… still seems obvious, Joe. There was never any question in my mind that they would do great with the film. But they should have opened two weeks earlier and gone wide faster.

  7. Mr. F. says:

    You know, this BRUNO vs. BORAT talk aside… I would LOVE to see a weekend (if not all of them) where the box office predictions were made in a complete vacuum. No studio gossip… no tracking figures… no influences whatsoever to help the “experts” predict their numbers, other than their own common sense. I’m guessing they’d be all over the map, and usually wrong. Once everyone’s using the same sources (mostly), it takes all the fun out of it. Look at this week, for example: besides BOP predicting that ILYBC will be a surprise hit (???)… everyone’s about in line. Bor-ing.
    (But no matter what, the Box Office “Guru” would still end up way off)

  8. Joe Leydon says:

    Must respectfully disagree, David. As for everyone else: Seriously, go back and read the debate in the November 2006 archive. Interesting stuff.

  9. Chucky in Jersey says:

    @jeffmcm: Ever heard of the Urban Dictionary?

  10. CleanSteve says:

    Not it means much but wife and I went to an afternoon screening today here in Northern Illinois, and it was packed. I know that doesn’t mean every theater will be packed but I was surprised.
    Of course our Chicagoland summer has been crap, and it was rainy early today.
    For my money it was as funny, if not more, than Borat (which I thought was hysterical). The fortune teller scene alone was worth my $$. And my wife, who used to hate him, hate Ali G and hated Borat…she laughed her ass off. Again, that’s just one female but it signals to me that it’s possible a lot of women will like it.
    I don’t think it will underperform. It has the weekend to itself. The midnight shows were pointless but even if it’s in the 40 million range that seems good. Not sure how much it how cost. Word of mouth should be good. But what do I know?
    The closing song sequence was great, too, due simply to the parade of cameos.
    RIP Ali G show characters. Here’s to SBC moving on to a new stage in his career.

  11. Geoff says:

    Hey, CleanSteve – where do you live and what theater did you go to? I went to the River East downtown, myself, today and saw The Hurt Locker with a pretty packed audience – fantastic movie, definitely lived up to the hype. And actually it got quite nice later in the afternoon, so I was able to ride my bike home.
    As for Fox “leaving money on the table,” that has certainly been their story, this summer. With all of these big movies, pretty much every one has underperformed, at least domestically. Ice Age and Wolverine will likely be the lowest grossing films of their respective franchises, adjusted for inflation, and NATM did at least $50 million lower than I thought it would – pretty amazing that none of these films will crack $200 million. I think a lot of it had to do with placement.
    Makes me wonder how they’ll pull off Avatar – jeez, when are we going to see a trailer on that one, already? Does any one get a sense that Fox is nervous and might bump this thing, again? I can easily see them moving it to Summer 2010 – any knowledge of this, Dave?
    And while I was at the theater, I saw the typical endless commercials for the latest shows on TNT and Discovery, that always seems way more exciting in a theater than they are in the small screen. Is it me or does EVERY faded star seem to be trying the route of doing a cable show about cops or detectives that’s “gritty” and “real?” Patrick Swayze, Kira Sedgwick, Holly Hunter, and now the latest….Dylan McDermott with Dark Blue….I swear, the behind scenes bits where the cast is talking about how their characters “cross the line” and are “over the edge” could have been taken from just about any EPK over the past couple of years for one of these types of shows.
    One thing I have read is that for a lot of stars, it becomes pretty advantageous to get a deal with one of these shows – the financial upside is much higher with residuals and syndication and they can stay near family year-round in the LA area, as opposed to travelling further for movies. Dave, you know the scoop about this stuff better than any one – is this just career spin or is it really the case? Are more stars flocking to TV for these kind of reasons?

  12. Chucky in Jersey says:

    “Bruno” may do well in Chitown but that’s not a reliable barometer. That’s like saying the only baseball teams on TV should be the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and Dodgers.
    @DP: “Borat” would have died a quick death with a late-October release — Halloween is a dead zone. The film also underperformed in the Bible Belt and the Mormon Belt.

  13. Joe Leydon says:

    Geoff: That is what some film actors have been telling me for years — that a TV series gig can be very nice if you’re looking for steady employment, raising a family, and wanting to be near home more often than not. Heck, that’s what Jamie Lee Curtis told me 20 years ago while explaining why she grabbed a role in a sitcom.

  14. Those midnight sneaks were only on 700 screens.
    Or so Scott Mendelson said.

  15. jeffmcm says:

    Chucky, the definition of ‘insane’ is doing the same thing, over and over again, and expecting a different response. So it’s insane of me to ask you a rational question and expect a rational answer, but I’ll do it anyway:
    What does the Urban Dictionary have to do with anything anyone here has written lately? Are you trying to justify something?
    Also, using “@insertnamehere” in any non-Twitter capacity is obnoxious.
    PS: You’re always wrong about everything.

  16. Geoff, I had been thinking about that lately. For a while there they all made sitcoms (Bette Midler, Bonnie Hunt, etc) and now they’re making cable cop shows (Kyra Sedgwick, Holly Hunter, etc). It’s like actors who can no longer find a place on the big screen then move on to TV, but even the TV shows they make go in cycles so it’s lucky. I mean, can you imagine Bonnie Hunt on The Closer? Hmmm.
    Love Kyra on The Closer though. Best work she’s even done.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon