Friday Estimates by Klady – G-Ugly
OHMIGOD! THE TWITTER EFFECT HAS KILLED HARRY POTTER!!!!!
Zzzzzzzzzzzz…
After all, Transformers: ROTFL only dropped 51% from first Friday to second… and Potter is off 64% And we all know how horrible Tr2 is. So Potter much be much worse. Bring on the endless feature stories about “What Really Happened To Harry Potter!”
This is yet another example of how media twists details into the stories they really want to write. Yes, details need to cooperate a bit. If Bruno had gone up in its second weekend, no doubt, they would have written about how Americans are so homophobic that they LOVED Bruno. Instead, we got a parade of experts explaining one thing… how little they actually know or care about understanding the box office.
Last week at this time, P6 was ahead of P5 by $18.5m… now it’s $14.5m. And in the end, it will land somewhere in The Potter Zone between $290m and $305m. But we can look to the Potter films as an interesting case study about how box office is evolving. The series is huge and amazingly consistent. And the first film, still the biggest by $25m domestic, took 15 days (that includes the 3rd Friday) to get to where this one has gotten in 10 (which includes just the 2nd Friday).
That is to say… in the course of 8 years, a mega-movie has shortened its box office cycle by a full week. Part of that was adding the Wednesday opening to ease the load on that first 3-day.
The flip side is that the Top Potter, #1, doesn’t pull ahead of all the other Potters until Day 45, when you compare the daily box office of all these films. But if you look at the weekly numbers, Potter 1 has the best weeks of the Potters from Week 4 on… by a couple of million in every subsequent weekend, but sometimes by $5m and $6m. $19.8 million in Week 6 is amazing. That’s $5m more than domestic #2 all-time The Dark Knight did last summer. That’s not a slap at TDK, but an acknowledgment of how things keep changing.
This is where Joe (in this case, Average Joe) asks, “So what?” And the answer is that none of this really does matter to Harry Potter or Batman or Spider-Man. In fact, the weaker the mega-film, the better frontloading is for its box office run.
But like Reagan’s trickle-down theory, the frontloading and all the ramifications of it trickles down to movies that are not so fortunate as to have massive numbers while frontloading and could do very well with legs.
Half of Orphan’s screens this weekend seem to be coming out of the theater counts of The Hangover and My Sister’s Keeper. The other half are, appropriately, coming out of – it seems – I Love You, Beth Cooper. Up gave up 37% of its screens this weekend.
Even Bruno, which coughed up 31% of its screens this weekend, is an example of the cost of frontloading. The film was teh #5 movie Monday (ahead of The Hangover), #6 Tuesday, and #7 on Wed & Thurs… adding over $900k every day of the week. Losing a third of its screens on Friday, it’s Friday was about the same as its Thursday… which is horrible for films that kept their count… and even with Twitter-victim Bruno, would surely not have happened had it not lost all those screens. Say the loss of screens – encouraged by the way films go in and out of theaters now and increasingly every year – costs the film $1.5 million this weekend and $2.5 million over the week. As you roll through the next 4 or 5 weeks of this films run, you’re looking at $5 million more that it might well have made and won’t. That’s 7% or 8% of the film’s domestic total.
10% may not seem like a lot to you… and studios have left that much or more on a lot of movies – perhaps a majority – on the table in recent years. But part of that was that DVD was around the corner, promising big bucks. These days, that 7% – 10% is looking like a lot of money. But the system that’s in place is still moving forward based on the old (in this case, a decade old) idea of what was best.
Anyway…
G-Force and The Ugly Truth are perfect examples of films that were underestimated by tracking because of their audiences. Kids love pooping, talking rodents and women want to be taught by Gerry Butler until they can turn the tables and teach him a few things. Both studios did a great job hitting their targets. And Sony may get a break next weekend as Adam Sandler and Seth Rogen front the new Apatow. Women like Apatow films and Leslie Mann in them in particular, but even though Funny People will likely win that race next weekend, Ugly may well siphon off 20% or so of the Funny audience next weekend, who stick with the pure chick flick while waiting for word of mouth… via mouth… or text… or Twitter… or the phone… or even at the literal water cooler.
Box Office Mojo has The Hurt Locker at $390,000 for Friday in its expansion to 238 screens. That should mean the film’s first $1 million weekend. That’s good. Now, let’s see if Summit is prepared to build on that.
After a mammoth Saturday surge, The Orphan will top out at 45m, eclipsing all other films in release. Sorry to doubt you, Lex!!
no doubt your Hyperbole is lost, Wrecktum. Lex is probably lighting candles now in his Orphan/K-Stew shrine for a 45 weekend to happen.
Why, its as sure a thing as K-Stew’s Oscar win for Twilight.
Not to be a douche, but I did predict poor legs for HP after facebook updates after the midnight screenings.
And I think you might be a little blind to how your theories are as little based in fact as the “experts”.
Compare:
“If Bruno had gone up in its second weekend, no doubt, they would have written about how Americans are so homophobic that they LOVED Bruno.”
“G-Force and The Ugly Truth are perfect examples of films that were underestimated by tracking because of their audiences. Kids love pooping, talking rodents and women want to be taught by Gerry Butler until they can turn the tables and teach him a few things.”
You got any empirical proof of that?
I was gonna see Butler/Heigl later but fuck it I’m seeing ORPHAN again.
Fucking rules.
ORPHAN POWER.
Transformers, of course, is messing with Harry Potter by delaying its IMAX 3-D debut. Though I saw it first thing at a midnight show, I’ve been waiting to see it again for the IMAX 3-D opening. And I have another friend who refused to see it in 2D at all, and has already bought his advance IMAX ticket. Could there be others like us contributing to a poor weekend here?
Lex: Glad you finally experienced the full awesome power of the “ORPHAN.” But Farmiga bugs, right? There’s something about her that’s so thoroughly unpleasant, I can’t quite put my finger on it. It’s not her look — even if she does resemble a slightly less harsh-looking Sarah Jessica Parker — but her manner. It makes it hard to root for her, even when the film goes into “Mom is gonna kick some ass” mode in the third act. This, more than anything, is what will probably keep the film from being a smash: they got too “artsy” with the casting of the parents, so the audience sees them as innefectual yuppie simps who get what’s coming to them.
A_Loco: While we’re on the subject of parsing DP’s comments for “empirical proof,” how about this zinger:
“Women like Apatow films and Leslie Mann in them in particular.”
Oh yeah, she’s a BIG draw. That’s the ONLY reason she’s on the one sheet and her name is above the title. When people tell me about their favorite parts of “40 Year-Old Virgin,” the conversation always comes back to Leslie Mann! That one-minute bit in the car? Priceless! And the female love for “Knocked Up?” Not due to Heigl, who carried the film and gave it a soul, but Mann as Paul Rudd’s wife! She walked away with the whole picture! Boxoffice gold, she is. GOLD!
I think MeeKayD hit it on the head. I’m waiting for IMAX, and those who couldn’t wait will hold off for IMAX for the return visit. Next weekend will really tell the tale.
If next weekend does see an uptick in Harry Potter 6, or (more realistically) a much smaller weekend drop than this weekend, could we see a new trend of delaying the IMAX versions of films to milk the fans for an almost guaranteed second viewing a couple weeks down the line?
Dietcock…
Yeah, Farmiga and Sarsgaard are great actors, but casting two indie sadsacks in such pulpy material and the surprising Euro pacing will probably be baffling to a lot of people who see it. Especially during the cold, glacial first 40 minutes, I kept imagining a reverse world where they switched casts with the movie playing next door, so we’d have Gerard Butler and Katherine Heigl hamming it up here and bringing some star charisma to give the audience a hook as more sympathetic, likeable parents.
But that aside: ORPHAN.
“Now, let’s see if Summit is prepared to build on that….”
You’re kidding right, Dave?
“Ugly Truth” is like a schizophrenic melding of an early-’60s Day/Hudson romcom and a potty-mouthed late-’00s Judd Apatow movie.
I could have definitely lived without hearing Heigl say “cock” three times in the same scene; and I could happily die without ever having to endure Butler’s ear bleed-inducing “American” accent again.
Bless you, climax-of-“Orphan,” for providing me with the biggest laugh(s) of the season. And does anyone else think that the kitchen butt-fucking scene was another example of the “Euro” tint Lex referred to in the previous post? Lex??
Has anyone else seen “Management”? Finally caught up with a screener this week and–for what it’s worth–I thought it was a (vastly) superior “unconventional” romantic comedy than the oversold/overrated “500 Days of Summer.” Maybe it’s because I’m over 30, but Jen Aniston just seems one helluva lot more appealing/sexy/womanly/etc. than one trick pony (pony-ette?) Zooey Deschanel.
ZOOEY BY A MILE.
ORPHAN. SEE IT.
No way, Lex.
I don’t think I’ve liked Deschanel since “Elf.” Her boho-waif routine has gotten mighty old PDQ. Aniston is like a fine wine; she just gets better with age.
And even though I can’t remember the (latest) title, I’m anxiously awaiting her romdramcom with Aaron Eckhardt opening this September. The one-sheet alone gives me the warm-and-fuzzies.
ZOOEY.
ORPHAN.
You didn’d comment on the kitchen butt-fucking scene in “Orphan,” Lex.
Tres Euro-sleaze, no?
Ha! Yes… and a nice “bookend” to Walker going down on Farmiga in the laundry room in “Running Scared,” which is about ORPHAN’s equal in terms of queasy unpleasantness and kids-in-peril insanity.
This movie has more kids shooting at each other than fucking “City of God.”
Credit where due, Aniston was pretty good in her scenes with Affleck in “He’s Just…”, even though (SPOILER ALERT…)
he sells out like a chump at the end.
Wandered into a matinee of “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” (#latetothepartycauseIhaveakid) and I’d heard all about how bad it was, sure, but not just how boring and laborious. I wasn’t a fan of the first one and thought it would be more of the same. In fact, this one was terrible for a whole different set of reasons. Bizarre!
Blah blah bladdidy blah.
Transformers 2 was like being in a little kid’s dream. “and then there was Optimus and he died and an airplane and he was a Decepticon but then he wasn’t and he was old and had a beard and they walked out of the Air and Space Museum to New Mexico and then to the Pyramids and then, and then Sam went to heaven and he came back and the end.
…and you expected?
dietcock: In all fairness, DP didn’t say Leslie Mann was a box office draw; he just said women like her in the Apatow films. Which I expect is true.
And I actually DO think she stole large chunks of KNOCKED UP.
You know, Leslie Mann IS pretty smokin’. And while I almost never think chicks are funny at all, she kinda rules in all his movies and IS funny. BEGGIN’.
Anyway, T-MINUS SIX DAYS til I have to stop seeing the FUNNY PEOPLE trailer in front of EVERYTHING.
“ONCE THOSE TWO LITTLE LEGS COME OUT, you KNOW it’s ON!”
“What movies are those?”
“The ones where you try to kill BRUCE WILLIS.”
AMAZED that the GUDONOV line gets laughs every single time I see it in a theater twice a week… because it’s TWENTY years out of date and probably means jack and shit to anyone born after 1980.
Nicol (again!) I expected something a little more coherent and a little less insulting to the audience. Like the first Transformers, which I can’t label as a ‘good’ movie but I can label as at least not a ‘terrible’ movie, which Transformers 2 certainly is.
McDouche almost inadvertantly seizes on the main thing that’s AWESOME about Bay’s TRANSFORMERS movies. Yes, the plot is convoluted, the “mythos” is juvenile, and I DON’T GIVE A SHIT.
And guess what? NEITHER DOES BAY.
To me, the BEST thing about Transformers (either one) is Bay has ZERO interest in the dork-ass source material, has seemingly no real respect for the property at ALL (neither do I), the clunky plotting, anything: He’s just hellbent on AWESOMELY making it all HIS and MAKING A FUCKING FORTUNE regardless.
It’s so blatantly obvious he only gives a shit about the parts with speeding expensive cars, greased women, and fetishized military ownage… all the LAME Transformers shit and scripting isn’t just an afterthought, it’s almost like he blatantly DOESN’T GIVE A FUCK, doesn’t CARE about the fans of the dork shit, and just STEAMROLLS AHEAD… which is FUCKING AWESOME.
It’s exactly like if you gave ME “Pride and Prejudice” to adapt, and I was like FUCK YES, didn’t even read the boring book, didn’t give a fuck AT ALL, and just made a 130-minute MTV video about Keira, Emma Watson, K-Stew, Jena Malone and a bunch of firecrotches and Korean party girls oiled up in skimpy dresses and fetish heels, clubbing and tangling with stubbled drug dealers and firing off .45s while metal bumps with some totally tame semi-lesbian tanglings before a 45-minute pillowfight montage and all the chicks shooting up contemporary Los Angeles before a vanity tag of “PRIDE AND PREJUDICE BY LEXG” slam-cuts onto the screen and MY FAVORITE GAME by The Carigans plays over a series of lecherous bikini shots.
GOOD IDEA.
Lex: Yes, that’s an accurate reading, and this is why the movie reveals him (inadvertantly) as a terrible person. (As if we didn’t already know.) The reason you like Bay movies is because, he, and you, are Pure Id. And pure Id is one of the worst things in the world.
At least we understand each other perfectly on this, but why would you say he’s a “terrible” person? I’d say it’s just being “honest.” Michael Bay is practically the most HONEST filmmaker in the history of cinema.
Pure id is one of the worst things in the world? Fuck you. You know what’s the worst thing in the world? PURE DOUCHE! Go look in the mirror jeff, and get the fucking hint.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA @ IO.
Also, Jeff, why are you online when you could be seeing ORPHAN?
ORPHAN POWER. BEST MOVIE OF ’09.
ORPHAN.
Uh…hint about what, exactly here?
Lex, sort of. Bay is honest in that he puts all his bullshit fantasies on screen. The problem is that he doesn’t recognize them as bullshit, which they most certainly are. Megan Fox is an embarrassment. The plot of Transformers 2 is an embarrassment. Shia’s parents are an embarrassment. But Lex, I don’t expect you to be very well acquainted with the words ‘shame’ ’embarrass’ or ‘appropriate social behavior’.
Lex, Orphan isn’t playing at 1:40 am. I do intend to see it next week because it sounds highly entertaining.
MEGAN FOX IS GOD COME TO EARTH, YOU WILL BOW.
I hate it when I step away from the Internet for a half hour (in this case to learn “Umbrella” on guitar for an upcoming YouTube video) and miss one of McJeff’s salty sessions.
My Megan Fox video has 300 views and I get an email every 2 hours from another satisfied customer talking up how I am the future of the world. YAY ME.
“I don’t expect you to be very well acquainted with the words ‘shame’ ’embarrass’ or ‘appropriate social behavior’.” You obviously do not get the hint, that you have no idea what EMBARRASS, APPROPRIATE, AND SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR MEAN! You have the most posts on this blog, and you contribute JACK AND SHIT TO IT!
If anyone should be permabanned from this fucking blog for sheer douchebaggery. IT’S FUCKING YOU. You are the most pointless motherfucker ever on the net. Absolutely pointless.
Now excuse me while Lex and I high five to your absolute shittiness as a poster on a blog. You fucking daffy bastard.
First of all, the ‘letting go’ moment with Sam and his father was the only real moment of dramatic weight in the film. Nothing much, but it stood out. Anyway, what I don’t get is, if Bay is only concerned with his fantasies and his toys (probably true), why must his films be filled with so much plot and failed character interaction? My biggest problem with Transformers 2 wasn’t the poor attempt at humor, the simplistic right-wing politics, the useless supporting characters, the poorly defined villain, or the incomprehensible action. My biggest beef was the fact that there was an entire second act (post woods-fight scene and pre-Egypt) where absolutely nothing happens. The whole middle of the film is just plot and exposition. For a movie that’s just supposed to be giant robots killing each other, the movie has more plot than The Dark Knight or State of Play. And none of the plot and none of the character interplay is the least bit entertaining. Maybe it was a writers strike issue or maybe Bay was just overcompensating, but there’s probably a pretty entertaining piece of crap 105-minute movie stuck inside that 149 minute bloat.
Orphan looks boring. I liked it back when it starred Maculay Culkin! That was so SCARY.
I had absolutely zero interest in ORPHAN until someone (at my request) told me the big surprise ending. Now–and I can’t believe I’m typing this–I’m actually considering seeing it. What’re the odds?
I just looked up the spoilers…actually yeah, that seems like a better movie!
Surprised Lex wanted to see it…it looked all boring with talking and muted colors and no titties.
Yeah, I looked up the twist, too. I actually considered that possibility, and then dismissed it as being too silly. Shows you what I know.
So why DO you like it, Lex? It’s not very Lexian. Farmiga is an “indie sadsack,” everyone is bundled up in winter coats. Did you think the nine-year-old was hot? (It’s okay, she’s really twelve.)
IO: So you agree with what Lex about Bay having ZERO respect for the source material and the fans — namely, YOU? Because that’s exactly what he said.
Frank, it’s Bay’s thing. It used to be his thing. That’s why the next film, given to someone who gives a damn about the fans, will make a better film. I, in no way, dislike the freakin Transformers movies. I just want a more G1-centric Transformers movie, and Optimus without the fucking flames.
AND Bay gave him a mouth! I’m certain at least half of America is pissed off about that.
IO and Lex, Scott has it exactly right about Bay – no real issue with the guy being pure ID, it’s just the execution.
Most of his movies are completely overstuffed messes – if the first Transformers was actually about an hour and 40 minutes, it might have been a watchable entertainment. But he stuffs in so many unnecessary characters, joke beats, plot lines that go nowhere, it’s about as bloated, indulgent and numbing as anything from Lars Von Trier.
It’s not about the plot….seriously, look at a film like Aliens, there really isn’t much plot to it at all. But the thing just builds and builds and you stay focused on just a few characters and never have a sense of doubt of geography…and the movie absolutely works for you over for 2 and a half hours.
That movie is about as pure id as you can find, in the best sense, but it works. Bay just doesn’t know how to do that – he’s not nearly as confident a filmmaker to pull it off. That’s part of the why the guy likes to overload his films with so many cuts.
Yes, it’s all because Bay is so incredibly insecure. He’s terrified that if he doesn’t cram his movies with too much stuff, the audience will turn on him. And the failure of the relatively-restrained The Island probably reinforced that for him.
BAY FUCKING RULES, THE ISLAND RULES, and “You don’t know what the fuck you’re talkin’ about” (TM JACK WALSH.)
Agreed Jeffmcn. The Island, while flawed (great first half, not so great second half) was a genuine attempt from Bay to make something a bit outside of his comfort zone. Its box office failure basically told him that he should just go back into the Maxim: The Movie sandbox and just stay there.
Same thing with Jackie Brown. QT attempted to follow up Pulp Fiction with something substantially less gimmicky, more measured, and less ‘cool’. Said movie’s (wrongful) perception of failure led Tarantino to retreat to campy genre homages like Kill Bill and Inglorious Bastards. In short, Quintin Tarantino the filmmmaker became Quintin Tarantino the stereotype.
To this day, I’m thankful that Jim Carrey had already signed on for The Truman Show before The Cable Guy got whupped. He might have otherwise taken that (again, unfair) rejection to heart and spent his career doing Ace Ventura sequels and similar foolery.
Agreed with Bay bit not Tarantino. Jackie Brown just seems to make everyone forget that Pulp Fiction and Reservoir Dogs were basically homages too…maybe less campy and weird, but genre homages all the same. Because they were new at the time and we hadn’t seen movies like that before, helped also. I don’t think there’s as much difference between Pulp Fiction and Kill Bill as some seem to think. And remember the man had also written Natural Born Killers and From Dusk Til Dawn.
sometimes i think QT should have just quit while he was ahead after his perfect and sublime epic LA trilogy of dogs/fiction/brown, but i don’t want big perm and christian to mess up my shit so i’ll just say i live in hope for QT to blow me away again
I’ll go easy on you, kiddo.
But JACKIE BROWN was profitable, making probably as much one could hope an old-skool adult crime drama could make. And Forster got his career revival, which nobody regrets. It was the smart film to make after PULP FICTION because it was different.
Well, I certainly wouldn’t begrudge anyone for not digging where Tarantino is right now…the stuff he’s doing now is certainly a little weirder and wilder, and not really for everybody. I have liked or loved all of his movies, with the exception of Death Proof, which I absolutely hated.
Apparently the Weinstens wanted Quentin to cut Jackie Brown down to two hours and promised if he did, the box office would be much bigger…but Tarantino said no, his cut stands. I can respect that. Tarantin is great because he just doesn’t give a shit.
Pulp Fiction has rear projection! If QT through that in a movie today people would say “oh, he’s just doing more of his geek stuff”.
KILL BILL has loads of rear-projection…
ORPHAN.
BEST MOVIE OF 2009.
BOW TO IT. HOLY SHIT DOES IT FUCKING RULE.
ORPHAN POWER.
Nobody has watched KILL BILL since 2004. Fun in its day, no staying power, all hype.
Christian, and isn’t that exactly what they said?
Lex. Shut up.